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Grading hextalls off season

Created by: Hullsy09
Team: 2022-23 Pittsburgh Penguins
Initial Creation Date: Jul. 21, 2022
Published: Jul. 21, 2022
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
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Saw someone else do this and I wanted in lol.

Rust contract- A-

Hextalls plan of giving core players more term than he was comfortable with to lower the AAV was an excellent plan, and it was kicked off with rusty. He probably gets 6 M on the open market.

Letang contract- A+

Home run. Apparently there was a 9M x 4 years offer on the table from another team, and this is so much better considering this teams timeline. + he gets to retire a penguin.

Rakell contract- B+

I think this was around market value. Maybe he could have gotten a bit higher aav from another team on a 4-5 year term, but regardless I think this is about what he is worth. He is a great fit with the team and Hextall gets props for putting this deal together quick.

Malkin contract- A-

Again, he would have gotten more aav on the open market for a short term. Easily better than trochek/copp/other options in the short term. Great contract + he gets to retire a penguin.

Rutta signing- A

The ability to play both sides is very helpful and he makes this d core heavier. He also comes in at much less than expected, considering Erik Gudbranson signed a 4X4 the same day. Also don’t have to give up any assets in a signing.

Marino trade- A

Opens up cap space and gives this team a young defensemen in Smith who has a much higher offensive ceiling. If Reirden can get through to Smith and get his development back on track this could be a MASSIVE w.

Petry trade- A

Awesome trade. People really forget how good a player Petry is. He quickly becomes one of the very best second pairing dmen in the entire NHL, and being able to have one of petry and Letang on the ice for 80% of the game is a weapon. Also allows both petry and Letang to play a bit less and hopefully that helps their longevity, can’t help but think this will help the numbers of secondary scoring forwards (the guys who may not get to play with Letang as often) too as petry will surely put up way more points than Marino.

Kapanen signing- B-

I think bringing back Kapanen was the right move, although I was hoping for a bit lower AAV (the contract I had been giving him lost recently was 2.6X2) With that being said the arbitrator would have probably given more term and the same if not more aav. Seravalli reported 3-3.5+ would be the aav. I think we saw Kapanen at his lowest last year. And his lowest was slightly above average analytics with 32 points, which is not atrocious. Sure he looked disengaged, but if he can get his mental state right those numbers will surely go up. Not an awful grade - avoiding the risk of arbitration was smart.

Overall Hextall is having an excellent off season and I am not convinced he is done
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Jul. 21, 2022 at 3:17 p.m.
#1
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you traded Marino for a 3rd + one of the worst statistical defensemen in the NHL last year. THEN replaced him with a 34 year old on a terrible contract coming off a terrible year... no grade below B-?

Matheson (one of the Penguins better defensmen last year) is now being replaced my Poj or Smith... you saved a little bit but Marino is better than Petry and Matheson is liley better than either Smith or POJ

grades seem to ignore the risks involved
Jul. 21, 2022 at 3:20 p.m.
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Man you are high on Hextall lol.

I think trading for Petry makes the Rutta signing a D at best. It's wasted cap space that desperately needed to be used on a forward.

I liked the Marino trade for cap space, but then giving that space to Petry just ruined that trade for me haha.

Nino signing for 4mil, Strome signing for 3.5, Domi and Athanasiou signing for 3mil - makes the Kap signing a D at best.
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Jul. 21, 2022 at 3:21 p.m.
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Quoting: Capitalfail67
you traded Marino for a 3rd + one of the worst statistical defensemen in the NHL last year. THEN replaced him with a 34 year old on a terrible contract coming off a terrible year... no grade below B-?

Matheson (one of the Penguins better defensmen last year) is now being replaced my Poj or Smith... you saved a little bit but Marino is better than Petry and Matheson is liley better than either Smith or POJ

grades seem to ignore the risks involved


Marino isn't better than Petry lol. The defense is a wash. Petry > Marino Matheson > POJ/Smith
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Jul. 21, 2022 at 3:30 p.m.
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Quoting: Capitalfail67
you traded Marino for a 3rd + one of the worst statistical defensemen in the NHL last year. THEN replaced him with a 34 year old on a terrible contract coming off a terrible year... no grade below B-?

Matheson (one of the Penguins better defensmen last year) is now being replaced my Poj or Smith... you saved a little bit but Marino is better than Petry and Matheson is liley better than either Smith or POJ

grades seem to ignore the risks involved


The value in smith is in his potential, not what he is right now. Going into that last year, NHLe projected him as a 92% chance of becoming a star (I think, it may have been 89%). He also played last year on a poorly coached, bad team on a pair with PK subban. Todd Reirden has proved he is good at coaching poor analytical defensemen.

You also ignore the risk with Marino, he had 2 goals in his last 118 games or so. That contract has the potential to look pretty rough.

Don’t know how on earth Petry had a terrible year. His numbers weren’t great on the Ducharme Habs, but that team was on pace to become one of the worst teams in nhl history with no offensive weapons. Once MSL took over, he had 21 points in 30 games and his analytics were solid on the year as a whole. He is an excellent player and is a clear upgrade over Marino.
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Jul. 21, 2022 at 3:36 p.m.
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Quoting: JSEB93
Man you are high on Hextall lol.

I think trading for Petry makes the Rutta signing a D at best. It's wasted cap space that desperately needed to be used on a forward.

I liked the Marino trade for cap space, but then giving that space to Petry just ruined that trade for me haha.

Nino signing for 4mil, Strome signing for 3.5, Domi and Athanasiou signing for 3mil - makes the Kap signing a D at best.


Ruuta can play both sides and is a great pick up. If we trade one of Dumo or pettersson he can slide right over.

Petry is an excellent player and is a fine use of cap space. We still came out making cap space after both moves too.

As for the 4 players you listed, Nino signed in no state tax Nashville so we would have had to pay more, athanasiou and domi are going for the opportunity to play high in the lineup next year and get more next summer (also hoping to be traded at TDL), you are also making the assumption that all these players would want to sign in Pitt which could not be true for countless reasons

I am very high on hextalls work this summer. Not so much as a whole. I still hate him for letting mccan go. But this summer I love what he’s done (I am assuming he isn’t done though)
Jul. 21, 2022 at 3:47 p.m.
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Quoting: JSEB93
Marino isn't better than Petry lol. The defense is a wash. Petry > Marino Matheson > POJ/Smith


lol okay. Id argue Petry isnt an upgrade over Matheson... Penguins made a ton of dumb moves.
Jul. 21, 2022 at 3:57 p.m.
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I think this is pretty fair, considering that another move is probably yet to come. I think it's only a matter of time before they add another forward. The more I think about it I love the Petry and Marino trades. Petry is a great player, once Martin St. Louis took over in Montreal he had like 23 points in 30 games. He's a top D man playing on our second pair which makes the right side insanely stacked. Takes the pressure off of him and Letang too. Just a great move all around.
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Jul. 21, 2022 at 4:00 p.m.
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Quoting: Capitalfail67
lol okay. Id argue Petry isnt an upgrade over Matheson... Penguins made a ton of dumb moves.


Petry put up similar points and analytics on a FAR worse canadiens team, while having a much better track record for past success, and being far more physical, and more defensively reliable.

Management is also thinking this season is an outlier from matheson which is very possible. I could see him regressing a bit next year.

https://twitter.com/jfreshhockey/status/1548389741694894085?s=21&t=wwXB2nMpD8pjZ_e8JCv8fg

If you look at the graph in the top right, you can see his WAR percentile rank per year. Notice the rapid upward trajectory. You could argue it to be a breakout year, but after watching him in Pitt I am siding with management in saying he probably regresses (could only be slightly) next year.
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Jul. 21, 2022 at 4:01 p.m.
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Quoting: Hullsy09
Petry put up similar points and analytics on a FAR worse canadiens team, while having a much better track record for past success, and being far more physical, and more defensively reliable.

Management is also thinking this season is an outlier from matheson which is very possible. I could see him regressing a bit next year.

https://twitter.com/jfreshhockey/status/1548389741694894085?s=21&t=wwXB2nMpD8pjZ_e8JCv8fg

If you look at the graph in the top right, you can see his WAR percentile rank per year. Notice the rapid upward trajectory. You could argue it to be a breakout year, but after watching him in Pitt I am siding with management in saying he probably regresses (could only be slightly) next year.


Wasn't a bad idea to sell on Matheson while his stock was high. I love Matheson and it sucks we had to trade him, but Petry is the better player.
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Jul. 21, 2022 at 4:03 p.m.
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Quoting: pensfan21
I think this is pretty fair, considering that another move is probably yet to come. I think it's only a matter of time before they add another forward. The more I think about it I love the Petry and Marino trades. Petry is a great player, once Martin St. Louis took over in Montreal he had like 23 points in 30 games. He's a top D man playing on our second pair which makes the right side insanely stacked. Takes the pressure off of him and Letang too. Just a great move all around.


Yes. One more forward move and he secures a strong ‘A’ grade. If a St. Louis - Calgary trade occurs for Tkachuk we should be right in the middle of it because I think I could list off 10 forwards from those teams that I would want. Lindholm being the holy grail (if we could acquire him for a package which only includeds one 1st rounder, in addition to other pieces of course)
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Jul. 21, 2022 at 4:05 p.m.
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Quoting: pensfan21
Wasn't a bad idea to sell on Matheson while his stock was high. I love Matheson and it sucks we had to trade him, but Petry is the better player.


I will miss Mike. I liked him a lot

He is a future “chaos player” hall of famer tho haha. Will skate up the ice like Bobby Orr than go down and get 4 pucks deflected into his own net. He is also the strongest, and weakest player on the ice somehow. He is the Mike smith of defensemen
Jul. 21, 2022 at 4:06 p.m.
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Quoting: Hullsy09
Yes. One more forward move and he secures a strong ‘A’ grade. If a St. Louis - Calgary trade occurs for Tkachuk we should be right in the middle of it because I think I could list off 10 forwards from those teams that I would want. Lindholm being the holy grail (if we could acquire him for a package which only includeds one 1st rounder, in addition to other pieces of course)


I agree, I would take like 5-6 of the players on the Flames haha.
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Jul. 21, 2022 at 4:06 p.m.
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Quoting: Hullsy09
I will miss Mike. I liked him a lot

He is a future “chaos player” hall of famer tho haha. Will skate up the ice like Bobby Orr than go down and get 4 pucks deflected into his own net. He is also the strongest, and weakest player on the ice somehow. He is the Mike smith of defensemen


I was happy and also pissed when I saw the trade haha. I knew it was a good trade and the right one to make, but sucked to see Matheson going the other way. He was so fun to watch with his insane skating.
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Jul. 21, 2022 at 5:01 p.m.
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Quoting: Hullsy09
Ruuta can play both sides and is a great pick up. If we trade one of Dumo or pettersson he can slide right over.

Petry is an excellent player and is a fine use of cap space. We still came out making cap space after both moves too.

As for the 4 players you listed, Nino signed in no state tax Nashville so we would have had to pay more, athanasiou and domi are going for the opportunity to play high in the lineup next year and get more next summer (also hoping to be traded at TDL), you are also making the assumption that all these players would want to sign in Pitt which could not be true for countless reasons

I am very high on hextalls work this summer. Not so much as a whole. I still hate him for letting mccan go. But this summer I love what he’s done (I am assuming he isn’t done though)


Rutta is an okay pickup in a vacuum. But it's not a great pick up if you're a team that has no cap space, an already good defense, and serious issues at forward. It's actually very bad.

Petry is a great player - wouldn't say an excellent use of cap space though. Yeah but the only reason we needed to make that cap space was because we wasted it on Rutta and Kapanen.

PA's state tax is 3% - that's 120K lol. So not only does that have no effect on the Pens being able to afford him, but he probably wouldn't have even cared to lose that 120K. Yes, it's an assumption - and a perfectly fair one to make. There's no reason to think those players wouldn't come to the Pens for the same amount of money. The team is worse now then at the end of the year so I can't be happy with what he's done - but obviously hoping for the best
Jul. 21, 2022 at 5:03 p.m.
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Quoting: Capitalfail67
lol okay. Id argue Petry isnt an upgrade over Matheson... Penguins made a ton of dumb moves.


He definitely is better than Matheson as well. I think they've made some bad moves - don't get me wrong. And I'm not saying the Petry trade was great at all - but if we are comparing him 1v1 against Matheson or Marino - he's clearly better
Jul. 23, 2022 at 12:43 p.m.
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Quoting: JSEB93
He definitely is better than Matheson as well. I think they've made some bad moves - don't get me wrong. And I'm not saying the Petry trade was great at all - but if we are comparing him 1v1 against Matheson or Marino - he's clearly better


34... coming off a bad year? i dont htink so Petry sucks at defending the rush and thats literally the Penguins biggest need defensively
Jul. 23, 2022 at 2:10 p.m.
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Quoting: Capitalfail67
34... coming off a bad year? i dont htink so Petry sucks at defending the rush and thats literally the Penguins biggest need defensively


Not sure what makes you say petry had a bad year. His analytics were very solid on the year as a whole, and he had 21 points in 30 games once MSL took over
Jul. 23, 2022 at 2:57 p.m.
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Quoting: Hullsy09
Not sure what makes you say petry had a bad year. His analytics were very solid on the year as a whole, and he had 21 points in 30 games once MSL took over


49.49cf% 49.13ff% 49.16xgf% 17 takeaways and 107 giveaways... yikes

51.83cf% 52.46ff% 51.48xgf% 43 takeaways 37 giveaways... wow + turnover ratio

tell me how in a season you are a -90 in turnover ratio and you say it wasnt terrible?
Jul. 23, 2022 at 3:24 p.m.
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Quoting: Capitalfail67
49.49cf% 49.13ff% 49.16xgf% 17 takeaways and 107 giveaways... yikes

51.83cf% 52.46ff% 51.48xgf% 43 takeaways 37 giveaways... wow + turnover ratio

tell me how in a season you are a -90 in turnover ratio and you say it wasnt terrible?


https://twitter.com/jfreshhockey/status/1548388259134246912?s=21&t=uc_MEL0sLD-G1m8gpvcHWA

https://twitter.com/arhockeystats/status/1548409500599607296?s=21&t=uc_MEL0sLD-G1m8gpvcHWA

Guess it all depends on which analytics you look at
Jul. 25, 2022 at 9:08 a.m.
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Quoting: Capitalfail67
34... coming off a bad year? i dont htink so Petry sucks at defending the rush and thats literally the Penguins biggest need defensively


If the first thing you say is a person's age I feel like you have a very weak argument. And yes - Petry is better than Matheson. It's pretty much a consensus. You didn't really even try to argue that - and that was my whole point.
Jul. 25, 2022 at 12:25 p.m.
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Quoting: JSEB93
If the first thing you say is a person's age I feel like you have a very weak argument. And yes - Petry is better than Matheson. It's pretty much a consensus. You didn't really even try to argue that - and that was my whole point.


Petry had 107 turnovers last year and 17 takeaways... age is important with context bc most 34 years olds arent going to have a bad year then magically turn it around...unlike a 22-26 year old. common sense
Jul. 25, 2022 at 2:02 p.m.
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Quoting: Capitalfail67
Petry had 107 turnovers last year and 17 takeaways... age is important with context bc most 34 years olds arent going to have a bad year then magically turn it around...unlike a 22-26 year old. common sense


The year before he was 13th in Norris voting and had his best year of his career. This isn't some average player who has been on a decline for years - then maybe your age thing would matter. He had one average year heavily influenced by playing for an awful team.

He goes to a better team and gets to move to 2nd pair and play worse competition. Why do you think Matheson looked so much better on the Penguins than Florida? Same thing with Schultz. Playing with better players and moving from top pair to borderline 3rd. Petry isn't an elite defenseman, nobody is saying that. But he will be one of the best 2nd pair RHD - and he's better than Matheson
 
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