Which witch is which
Joined: Nov. 2022
Posts: 45
Likes: 28
It's a story of two teams - the elite, highly paid skilled players who were saddled with the enormous task of ending the Cup drought... and the bottom-end filler players that are brought in to take up roster spots at bargain basement prices on limited term.
You will never build a champion team this way.
There is simply not enough salary room to round the team out with depth and character players. I've been beating this dead horse for 3 yrs now - THIS TEAM WILL NEVER WIN A CUP WITH MITCH MARNERS SALARY ON THE BOOKS!!!!
It cannot be done, and no amount of "We'll make it happen" wishfull thinking is going to change this reality.
This is not a reflection of Marner as a player, he's elite and regardless of his flaws there is no difference in what he brings to the team whether he's paid 1 million or 10.9 million, but the 10.9 million does not allow the team to acquire better bottom 6 players. The typical counter argument is "But Tavares is paid too much money and they never should have signed him". This is wrong. Tavares is playing at a discount from what he could have been paid, he had proven himself, is/was elite and there is no argument that exists that he should not be paid market value in a league were salary is structured to pay out players later in their career. He was also signed prior to any of these other players... Mathews, Nylander and Marner were signed AFTER Tavares, so the decision to max out those remaining players after making Tavares your focus is the error - not signing Tavares.
The glaring problem with the team is that they have no bottom 6 depth (although David Kampf is awesome, I love this guy). The top 4 are carrying the team and two of these guys - Marner and Nylander are too soft to carry that pressure. Nylander becomes disengaged and Marner just collapses. He becomes too emotional and the opposition exploits this. Once you shut down Marner you effectivelly limit 50% of Mathews offense, which renders the top line useless. The secondary problem with the team is they have no toughness spread throughout the team. When you're only tough guys are two call-ups (Clifford and Simmonds) from the minors you are no longer dictating the tone of the game, you're reacting to the possibility of a game getting chippy. Again, this is to easily exploited by opposition and this is why we see liberties being taken with Mathews every game. The opposition knows there is no reprisals. They have no fear. The Leafs need to get tougher.
So what's the solution?
Marner must be traded. The return for Marner will be huge (it should be anyways) and the cap relief is far more important than Nylanders cap relief. Nylander is not a "franchise" player, whereas it could be argued (stretching the truth somewhat) that Marner is a franchise player (for some teams anyways). The Leafs have their franchise guy - Mathews. You don't need two. Tavares and Nylander are elite secondary players. Trade Marner for depth - lot's of it. Make sure that depth comes with size, grit, attitude and general instinct for punching other people in the face who try to run our elite players. If you trade Marner with the focus on trying to get a return of skill you will lose that trade 100% of the time. I'm not saying the Leafs need a goon, but what they do need is guys who can push back... or push first.
I have no idea what other teams want or how they think, so gaming out trades so people in the forum can dump all over peoples "ideas" seems like a lesson in futility... none of us have any clue what is a good trade or whether one team would "Do that deal"... but the essence of armchair GM'ing is to have fun and toss around ideas.
Heres Mine.
Marner and Robertson and third rd pick to Los Angeles for .... Brendan Lemieux, Trevor Moore, Matt Roy, Viktor Arvidson and (hopefully) a 1st rd pick in 2022 or 2023. Lemieux brings some tenaciousness to the left wing, Trevor Moore is a solid 3rd/4th line depth winger with size and bottom 6 scoring, Matt Roy is a tough right handed D-man, Arvidson is taking salary back from LA but still provides 2nd line scoring.
I would follow this with - "whatever it takes to get Marcus Foligno out of Minnesota" (within reason of course). And if you cannot see the benefit of a Marcus Foligno on the Leafs roster you need to just stop watching hockey NOW. Foligno is exactly what the Leafs need, big, tough, forward checking role-player who can score.
Moving Alex Kerfoot is also required. I doubt you can get much for him but I would try for a solid 4th line center and a draft pick. Nils Aman from Vancouver is a good start.
Players like Engvall, Holl, Malgin need to be moved out for 4th and 5th round draft picks.... because they aren't worth anything more.