Pessimistic Draft Scenario

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Created by: jonh514

Team: 2023-24 Montreal Canadiens

Initial Creation Date: Jan. 1, 2023

Published: Jan. 1, 2023

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Of course I hope the Habs:

Win the lottery and get Bedard
Trade Monahan for a late 1st round pick
Trade Eddy for a 2nd and a 3rd

But what if none of these things happen? This is a realistic draft scenario based on today's rankings.

Assumptions:
Florida finish outside the playoffs with a pick in the 11-14 range
Allen is drafted 19th OA
If the Habs can't find a taker for the trade back scenario, they draft Oliver Moore based on skating, deception, and playmaking

Free Agent Signings

RESERVE LIST		YEARS	CAP HIT
Farrell, Sean		2	$925,000

RFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Caufield, Cole		6	$7,875,000
Harris, Jordan		3	$2,000,000

CREATED		YEARS	CAP HIT
Dvorsky, Dalibor		3	$975,000
Allen, Cameron		3	$975,000

Trades

MTL

2023 1st round pick (SEA)
2023 2nd round pick (SEA)

SEA

2023 1st round pick (FLA)

Additional Details:

Habs trade back to where Allen is drafted

Buyouts

Karl Alzner: $833,333
Joel Armia: $33,333

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2023
2024
2025

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$82,500,000	$67,698,332	$1,170,000	$4,252,500	$14,801,668

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Caufield, Cole $7,875,000$7,875,000 LW, RW UFA - 8	Suzuki, Nick $7,875,000$7,875,000 C UFA - 7	Dach, Kirby $3,362,500$3,362,500 C, RW RFA - 3
Roy, Joshua $835,000$835,000 ($57,500$58K) LW, RW RFA - 3	Dvorak, Christian $4,450,000$4,450,000 C M-NTC UFA - 2	Anderson, Josh $5,500,000$5,500,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 4
Slafkovsky, Juraj $950,000$950,000 ($3,500,000$4M) RW, LW RFA - 2	Dvorsky, Dalibor $975,000$975,000
Hoffman, Mike $4,500,000$4,500,000 LW UFA - 1	Evans, Jake $1,700,000$1,700,000 C UFA - 2	Mesar, Filip $918,333$918,333 RW, C RFA - 3
Farrell, Sean $925,000$925,000 RW, LW RFA - 2		Gallagher, Brendan $6,500,000$6,500,000 RW, LW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 4

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Guhle, Kaiden $863,333$863,333 ($420,000$420K) LD/RD RFA - 2	Barron, Justin $925,000$925,000 ($275,000$275K) RD RFA - 1	Allen, Jake $1,925,000$1,925,000 G M-NTC UFA - 2
Harris, Jordan $2,000,000$2,000,000 LD/RD RFA - 2	Kovacevic, Johnathan $766,667$766,667 RD UFA - 2	Montembeault, Samuel $1,000,000$1,000,000 G UFA - 1
Xhekaj, Arber $828,333$828,333 LD/RD RFA - 1	Edmundson, Joel $875,000$875,000 LD/RD M-NTC UFA - 1
	Wideman, Chris $762,500$762,500 RD UFA - 1
	Allen, Cameron $975,000$975,000

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
	Matheson, Michael $4,875,000$4,875,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 3	Price, Carey $10,500,000$10,500,000 G NMC UFA - 3
	Savard, David $3,500,000$3,500,000 RD UFA - 2

Jan. 1, 2023 at 11:01 a.m.

Andy_Dick

Banned

Joined: Feb. 2022

Posts: 5,094

Likes: 2,375

I dont think Seattle is making the playoffs. They are getting tuned defensively atm and cant get a save. Calgary/Edmonton are much better teams. That Florida pick may end up being better.

jonh514 liked this.

Jan. 1, 2023 at 11:06 a.m.

jonh514

Thread Starter

HuGo is a Boss GM

Joined: Dec. 2021

Posts: 7,142

Likes: 3,110

Quoting: Koskinen_The_Great

I dont think Seattle is making the playoffs. They are getting tuned defensively atm and cant get a save. Calgary/Edmonton are much better teams. That Florida pick may end up being better.

I hope it's a top 10 pick, but if it's 11-15... We may prefer to trade back and draft based on organizational need.

Panthers are just getting healthy. Barkov is back. Not betting against that guy.

Jan. 1, 2023 at 11:08 a.m.

Andy_Dick

Banned

Joined: Feb. 2022

Posts: 5,094

Likes: 2,375

Just like the 2024 draft for RHD better. You got 6 RHD prospects in the top15 there. MTL wont be much better next season. You don't need to be trading up this draft, the price would be enormous. Just look at what Arizona paid to SJS in a bad draft year. You had guys like Lane Hutson fall there in the late 2nd round who should have been a 1st rounder. Allen isnt going to be much of a needle mover for the price to be paid IMO

Jan. 1, 2023 at 11:10 a.m.

jonh514

Thread Starter

HuGo is a Boss GM

Joined: Dec. 2021

Posts: 7,142

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Quoting: Koskinen_The_Great

I am talking about trading the Florida pick to Seattle. Basically moving back from position 11-15 to position 19...

Jan. 1, 2023 at 11:14 a.m.

Andy_Dick

Banned

Joined: Feb. 2022

Posts: 5,094

Likes: 2,375

Quoting: jonh514

I am talking about trading the Florida pick to Seattle. Basically moving back from position 11-15 to position 19...

Yeah my bad. Just dont think it's worth it to move around in a draft that hasnt had development stunted by covid. 2022 was chaos, it was worth it to move back then with draft boards all over the map. I think you go BPA here at your turn and dont overthink it.

If they can get Will Smith, a dynamic center and another big body forward like Sale, I'll be over the moon! Team lacks high end talent. You dont move back here. Outside 1 line they cant score rn.

jonh514 liked this.

Jan. 1, 2023 at 11:23 a.m.

csick

KFTW

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 43,846

Likes: 24,545

Honestly the pessimistic scenario is probably ending up with one of Will Smith or Dalibor Dvorsky and either Reinbacher or Sandin Pellikka which is still a huge W of a draft

Andy_Dick and jonh514 liked this.

Jan. 1, 2023 at 11:43 a.m.

jonh514

Thread Starter

HuGo is a Boss GM

Joined: Dec. 2021

Posts: 7,142

Likes: 3,110

Quoting: csick

Honestly the pessimistic scenario is probably ending up with one of Will Smith or Dalibor Dvorsky and either Reinbacher or Sandin Pellikka which is still a huge W of a draft

Did not mean to make it seem like I'm unhappy... Just want analyze the likely scenario rather than the dream scenario.

csick liked this.

Jan. 1, 2023 at 1:12 p.m.

jonh514

Thread Starter

HuGo is a Boss GM

Joined: Dec. 2021

Posts: 7,142

Likes: 3,110

Quoting: Koskinen_The_Great

I agree on not moving back from top 10. But Moving up and down within 11-20 is not crazy. All of those players can make an impact and if you want a defenseman but believe one of your targets will be there later in the round, you can get an asset to move back 5-8 slots ... I say you take it.

Jan. 1, 2023 at 1:51 p.m.

evelutions2

Lets Get Kraken

Joined: Apr. 2021

Posts: 8,735

Likes: 3,503

Quoting: jonh514

I hope it's a top 10 pick, but if it's 11-15... We may prefer to trade back and draft based on organizational need.

Panthers are just getting healthy. Barkov is back. Not betting against that guy.

Don’t bet against Barkov, I agree with that sentiment. Bet on Chairman Mo’s coaching style destroying the Cats, which has already been seen.

MisstheWhalers, Andy_Dick and LIRIK liked this.

Jan. 1, 2023 at 2:31 p.m.

#10

LIRIK

Joined: Mar. 2022

Posts: 2,675

Likes: 1,027

Quoting: jonh514

I don't think they need to move down. If the FLA pick is top 12, draft BPA. If not, i would just pick one of Allen or Dragicevic for need.

Personally, unless they win the lottery, i hope they get Benson and Dvorsky, but FLA pick would have to be top 10 too. Yager would be fine too.

They could also trade FLA pick if not top 12 for a player like Dubois or Lafreniere.

jonh514 liked this.

Jan. 2, 2023 at 1:55 a.m.

#11

FiveForFighting

Joined: Jan. 2019

Posts: 844

Likes: 199

As it stands now, Id draft Benson/ Smith/ Yager/
Michkov before Dvorsky

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