Quoting: Dom1422
First off you can stop saying Dvorak and Struble have no value to the Jets. You have no idea who the Jets value and how much they value them. We are going to use their perceived value, your subjective opinion has no place in determining that.
Dvorak went for a 1st and a 2nd a year and a half ago, there were multiple teams offering a 1st, he is still the same player. I’ll even lower that value just for the sake of argument. Let’s say he’s worth a 2nd rounder, that is far more valuable than the “no value” you’re disingenuously suggesting.
Struble is a former 2nd round pick who has had a modest college career, and is a relatively safe bet to become a bottom pairing Dman. And you said earlier that his value is equivalent to a 3rd rounder, so I’ll give you that. Now how is a top 10 pick, 2nd rounder and 3rd rounder at all comparable to a single late 1st round pick (that may as well be considered a 2nd rounder because the likelyhood of hitting on that pick is basically the same)
If you want to argue that a better prospect should be including rather than Struble, that would at least be a respectable argument. Instead you’re suggesting that this deal is nowhere near what it would take to land a player like Dubois even considering his situation. Which is nonsense.
And yes 10 to 15 spots in the first round is huge. I’d take 1 top 10 pick over 3 of those late first round picks. We know the odds on this. You have less than a 5% chance at landing a star in the late first round. You have a 25% chance at even landing an nhler period.
Let’s say the Florida pick is anywhere from 8th to 11th. You have a 50% chance at landing a star there, and a 90% chance at landing an nhler. The value difference is enormous. That’s why rentals go for late 1st round picks… teams are willing to give up that pick to have a player for a couple of months.
No none of us can say positively what a GM will do, but you can make an educated guess. Dvorak would be an expensive 4th liner on the Jets, so no value would be placed in him, I would think and Strudel would be 5 or 6 on the Jets left side, so again no value.
I also did make the argument in my very first post that the first was a good start but Strudel and Dvorak hold no value to Winnipeg and need to be replaced with pieces that have value to Winnipeg. So there's you're respectable argument.
In didn't say it isn't close, I said it's not good enough to be competitive with the other offers Winnipeg will have.
1C is the rarest and hardest position in hockey to fill, so you're really kidding yourself if you think teams won't be calling the Jets non-stop if PLD is available.
If we take your evaluation of your offer being a 1st, 2nd and 3rd for Dubois, then you are saying that the difference between 2 months of a cap dump like Monahan that cost Calgary a 1st to move and a year and a half, plus another 7 years of a young 1C extended at below market value is 10-15 spots in the draft and a 2nd (the difference between a 3rd and 6th is negligible).
I know you're grasping at straws trying to defend your our offer, but do you seriously believe that?
You've kind of painted yourself into a corner here showing that you seriously overvalue Monahan while simultaneously undervaluing PLD. Demonstrating a very clear pro-Montreal bias in player evalution.
Anyways, you can believe that you offered enough, that's fine. Reality, as we've seen from the actual trades we discussed, shows that it won't be enough and he'll be moved elsewhere if he is indeed traded. If the actual offers from Montreal equal yours.