Quoting: Black61
You might want to check you math there. His QO is 6 million. The comparable YOU gave is Fiala who got 7.875 million long term. Even if he gets more than that he would be giving up at most 3ish million dollars over a career earnings of more than 80 million dollars. 1 year to free agency and a 7 year deal then is the same term as a 8 year deal this offseason.
And you are also blatantly ignoring that the 2024 offseason is when the cap jump happens. The likelyhood of getting a bigger aav deal when the market is flush with cap is way higher then than this offseason.
The logic of him not being willing to wait another year to sign a long term deal when he literally did that this offseason lacks merit.
Let's see if we can find some common ground, yeah?
If he agreed to sign in Winnipeg the absolute lowest amount he signs for is 8 x 8, agreed? So 64 million. Let's say he signs for 1 year at 6M again next offseason in order to open himself up to a signing by the Habs in 2024. Here are the possible scenarios that can happen:
1) He plays the entire season replicating/beating his career best production and signs in Montreal or elsewhere on a 7 year deal at fair market value
2) He plays the entire season but his production drops 20 points back to his 2021 totals. Now he's a UFA as a 0.75 PPG center and he gets closer to second line money by Montreal or other
3) He plays part of the season and has a season ending injury keeping him out for months and possibly requiring surgery (Just like Guhle, Slafkovsky, Caufield this season). Now he needs a new contract but he's maybe getting 1-3 years because no GM wants to lose his job signing a guy he's not sure about and it's a lot worse than Caufield because he's at least signing with the same team who was able to do all the medical evaluations before and after the surgery. So in this scenario he maybe gets 3 x 7 and probably not in Montreal anyway.
4) He has a career-ending injury. Achilles tendon, Concussion, major back or hip issue, neck/spine, eye issue. Now he can basically begin interviewing at the News networks and hopefully get a job at BPM before it implodes.
So as it turns out, you are right. I DO need to check my Math! 64 Million - 6 Million: He's betting 58 Million on the fact that he stays healthy just so he can get low-balled by the Habs. Makes perfect sense for the most respected agent in the NHL to let him do that for the 2nd consecutive season!