But there goes the following years when Matthews (who will get $13M or more) and Nylander (who will get $9M or more) need to be resigned not to mention Lillypad, Sandin, the entire bottom 6 and a goalie.
The issue isn't fitting in Meier next year, it's the year after. Unless of course Matthews walks which is entirely possibly if the Leafs fizzle out in the playoffs again this year and next; if that happens, he's as good as gone.

But why would you sign Meier at his double-digit QO when you could sign him long term and bring the cap hit down to 8-9M?

As long as you understand the cost is much higher than this.

He wont be signing his QO, he will be probably extending at 9x8

So you say good bye to Nylander (we're probably doing that anyway) based on his production and what looks to be 3 - 30 goal seasons in a row possibly even a 40 goal season tossed there he'd find a Huberdeau contract in the market. I can't see a world leafs would sign Mier to a 1 year deal, this can make sense and be a smart move if Mier can be locked up long term between 8-10 million per year

A late 1st for Meier, even in the offseason, is a massive underpay

I think with where this team is, you do the best you can this year and next year and then see where the chips fall with Matthews and Nylander. There's a lot of apprehension among the fanbase from what I've seen of trading for someone like Horvat or Meier because the acquiring team would likely be parting with a lot of assets because they'd be fine doing that to sign them long term, and Timo's QO could be seen as a bit of an issue in acquiring him. This was just to show that the QO isn't as much of a handicap as one would think if they weren't willing or able to lock him up long term because of Matthews and Nylander. You could always just trade Timo at next deadline to recoup some assets if the team is underperforming and unable to sign him long term, but I think the purpose of this was to show that he could be looked at as at least a 1.5 year rental instead of just a rental for this season if they couldn't sign him long term for whatever reason.



Just to show that they could afford the QO to keep him for next year as well if they couldn't keep him long term with the Leafs' current big four contracts up shortly. Obviously he's more likely to sign long term somewhere, but it was just to confirm they could offer him the QO so they could a the very least get the offer sheet compensation if they were unwilling or unable to sign him to a long term contract someone else is.

Read the description at the top of the page. The trade would be at this deadline and would obviously cost more, it was just for the purpose of illustrating they could afford him at his QO if needed

It's a highly risky move. Acquiring him should be under the assumption that he's a pure rental, but I agree that it could be smart depending on the cost. That being said, I think Meier will end up with a team that wants to extend him right away (probably NJ, maybe Buf).

Whether they have a first round exit or not, they shouldn't be trading Nylander until they have clarity on what he wants and if Matthews is willing to extend after July 1st. That means they would need to qualify Meier and have him wait.

As long as their is an understanding with Meier that they are open with trying to sign him but would likely trade him, then there shouldn't be any issues there. I'm assuming that he wouldn't just accept his qualifying offer as long as he's not waiting around for too long. The Leafs definitely can't afford him accepting his QO and keeping him, Timmins is going to want more than the OP suggested, and losing Samsonov would be a major loss going forward.

In the case that they can have Nylander at 10m or Meier at 9m, I would rather have them extend Nylander especially if Matthews isn't locked up (since Nylander could potentially be moved to C unlike Meier) this coming off-season. Having Nylander at 7m next season would be more valuable than Meier at 9m considering that the cap would at least be 1m higher once that 10M contract kicks in.

Of course, there might be a situation where trading Nylander and signing Meier makes more sense. For example, if they can't fit Nylander while keeping Samsonov and extending Matthews, Liljegren, Sandin (maybe), Timmins and perhaps Brodie or signing Bunting. If there is a guarantee that they can sign all those guys by moving Nylander then that would be the move.