I probably wouldn't accept that if I was Winnipeg. Could get a better offer selling him as a rental to another team

They were in the same situation with Trouba a few years back and what they got was far worse than this (and Trouba just had a couple of really solid seasons). They didn't wait for the TDL either claiming what you just said. That top 15 pick is extremely valuable and we only have to wait one year for Dubois to sign with us without a trade (= better draft pick next year as well). I think for MTL to accept, youd have to replace Hoffman with Armia to make it worth it for MTL and switch that first for a 2025 one (with the condition that they get the lowest of both).

As for the Mantha trade, reading what's being said about him on Twitter and on the caps subreddit, it's clear that this guy isn't great at all and on his way out, and with that contract, Id rather ask them for a first (like with Monahan) and not send any salary back. Just something like Mantha and a 2024 first for a 3rd.

Friedman was saying PLD once OS and Artbitration is available loses value as he's already declared he wont sign term as an RFA .
Apparently no teams willing to match what Dubois will get on an OS in their trades because he's unlikely to re-sign and if he does it will be for a ridiculous term and caphit.
He said all the cards are in Hughes hands and by doing nothing he might have the biggest impact as the rift between Bowness/Chevy and PLD grows wider and wider .

I think it was 10-13-2 since the 50 game point including a 5 game losing streak and many multi game losing streaks.
Since the 50 game mark even MTL has those numbers and we're 5th last in the NHL , WPG was a top 5 team for a chunk of this season.
They're imploding and getting greedy with their returns as if they hold the leverage and there's people lining up to out big MTL.
Its not the case , not like it was for Duchene who MTL was happy in hindsight that they lost

If we trade for him we also lose our ability to do it on our terms.
OS gives us the leverage and if he's desperate to get out he'll take less term and a higher cap hit then so if WPG matches it would basically make them a non contender by proxy as they won have the cap to skate a 21 man roster with half them on ELC or league minimums . If we offered him 1 year x 8.4m WPG cant match and if they do its out of spite knowing how much it will truly cost them especially if they'd hoped to use this last TDL to make a profit off him as the OS will be greater then what they could get now. Some guys want out but im not sure they're all like Kotkanemi looking to stick it to his former team as Dubois has been open and honest about his intentions for years before he had to be just so they could make arrangements they failed to.

This isn't accurate. Dubois has simply stated that he wishes to become a free agent and would also be interested in playing for Montreal. Trouba, refused to play for a Canadian team all together. Dubois if traded to say Colorado, will sign a 1 year deal then go to free agency.

Also Pionk was viewed as a promising young player at the time of the trade and the 1st was 19th OA. Florida will probably at the earliest draft 14th and at the latest 19th so that difference really isn't that large.

If there is large interest in PLD as a rental ( and as a center there generally is) then Winnipeg is far better off selling him somewhere else

This just doesn't make sense for Washington, they'd save more money if they just bought him out and Armia is not a good player