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The missing pieces

Created by: Oilfan1717
Team: 2023-24 Edmonton Oilers
Initial Creation Date: May 8, 2023
Published: May 8, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
4$5,000,000
2$1,250,000
3$775,000
3$1,250,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$1,500,000
2$1,500,000
1$1,250,000
2$900,000
1$1,500,000
Trades
1.
CGY
  1. Ceci, Cody
  2. Holloway, Dylan
  3. 2024 1st round pick (EDM)
  4. 2025 1st round pick (EDM)
2.
EDM
  1. 2023 3rd round pick (EDM)
  2. 2025 2nd round pick (EDM)
3.
EDM
  1. 2023 4th round pick (MTL)
4.
EDM
  1. 2024 3rd round pick (CBJ)
  2. 2024 4th round pick (CBJ)
Buyouts
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2023
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
2024
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the NSH
2025
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
21$83,500,000$83,467,500$850,000$850,000$32,500
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$5,125,000$5,125,000
LW, RW
NMC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$12,500,000$12,500,000
C
NMC
UFA - 3
$1,500,000$1,500,000
RW
UFA
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,250,000$1,250,000
C
RFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$8,500,000$8,500,000
C, LW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$5,500,000$5,500,000
RW, LW
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,250,000$1,250,000
LW, RW
RFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$5,125,000$5,125,000
LW, C
NMC
UFA - 6
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,500,000$1,500,000
C, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,500,000$1,500,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
$1,250,000$1,250,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$9,250,000$9,250,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 7
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$4,550,000$4,550,000
RD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$2,600,000$2,600,000
G
UFA - 3
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$6,000,000$6,000,000
LD/RD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$5,000,000$5,000,000
RD
RFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$5,000,000$5,000,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
LD
RFA - 1
$900,000$900,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$762,500$762,500
RD
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$775,000$775,000
RW, C
RFA - 1

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May 8, 2023 at 3:05 a.m.
#1
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*sigh*
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May 8, 2023 at 4:46 a.m.
#2
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Montreal isn't interested, as we have plenty of wingers on the roster already.
Make it a 2nd round pick, and we might consider it.
May 8, 2023 at 8:29 a.m.
#3
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You just spend a PILE of assets making the team worse. What were you thinking?
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May 8, 2023 at 8:29 a.m.
#4
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Quoting: ohmyjlord
Montreal isn't interested, as we have plenty of wingers on the roster already.
Make it a 2nd round pick, and we might consider it.


That makes no sense. They aren't interested paying a 4th but might be if the price was higher?
May 8, 2023 at 8:50 a.m.
#5
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Quoting: CD282
That makes no sense. They aren't interested paying a 4th but might be if the price was higher?

Bad wording on my part. I meant add a 2nd on top of Foegele, and we might consider it.
May 8, 2023 at 9:29 a.m.
#6
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Quoting: ohmyjlord
Bad wording on my part. I meant add a 2nd on top of Foegele, and we might consider it.

Foegele scores at a 1st line rate while being paid like a 3rd liner. Your valuations are exactly backwards. Tampa paid two 1sts ++ for Hagel, who isn't as effective a player as Foegele is. You'd have to start with Florida's 1st and then add.
May 8, 2023 at 11:44 a.m.
#7
Be formless
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CBJ would consider that. Would probably only be willing to give the 3rd for Kulak, but it will depend on who else they could get and what the market shapes up to be during and after the draft.
Oilfan1717 liked this.
May 8, 2023 at 12:16 p.m.
#8
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Likes: 498
Quoting: CD282
Foegele scores at a 1st line rate while being paid like a 3rd liner. Your valuations are exactly backwards. Tampa paid two 1sts ++ for Hagel, who isn't as effective a player as Foegele is. You'd have to start with Florida's 1st and then add.

I'm afraid your evaluation of Foegele makes him a luxury we can't afford in Montreal. But I wish you all the best in your negociations with other teams. wink
May 8, 2023 at 12:33 p.m.
#9
Go Habs Go
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Quoting: CD282
Foegele scores at a 1st line rate while being paid like a 3rd liner. Your valuations are exactly backwards. Tampa paid two 1sts ++ for Hagel, who isn't as effective a player as Foegele is. You'd have to start with Florida's 1st and then add.


The only thing close to true in that paragraph is that he's paid like a 3rd liner.
May 8, 2023 at 1:32 p.m.
#10
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Quoting: ohmyjlord
I'm afraid your evaluation of Foegele makes him a luxury we can't afford in Montreal. But I wish you all the best in your negociations with other teams. wink

I want to keep him.
May 8, 2023 at 1:34 p.m.
#11
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Quoting: ricochetii
The only thing close to true in that paragraph is that he's paid like a 3rd liner.

Warren Foegele is among the best in the league at generating scoring chances.

[A little context for my stats. I took full season 5v5 stats and applied two filters: forwards only and minimun TOI of 495 minutes. That leaves us with the top 385 players by minutes played. Why 385? Because there are 32 teams and each with 12 regular forwards. 32 x 12 = 384, so pretty close. This way we can divide results by "1st line" (top 96 players), "2nd line" (97-192), etc. All stats are expressed as "per 60 minutes" to equalize for TOI differences.]

So here's how Foegele stacks up:

G/60: 0.93 (84th, tied with Panarin) 1st line rate
P/60: 2.09 (85th, tied with Tavares) 1st line rate
S/60: 9.36 (50th, tied with Cozens) 1st line rate
xG/60: 1.16 (9th, tied with Tavares) elite 1st line rate
SCF/60: 10.90 (23rd) elite 1st line rate
HDCF/60: 6.19 (8th), elite 1st line rate
Tka/60: 3.63 (3rd), elite 1st line rate
Hits/60: 7.11 (108th tied with Kreider) high 2nd line rate

Now consider that he spent just 8% of his TOI with McDavid this year. Foegele is a value contract. He scores at a 1st line rate while being paid like a 3rd liner.
May 8, 2023 at 3:16 p.m.
#12
Go Habs Go
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Quoting: CD282
Warren Foegele is among the best in the league at generating scoring chances.

[A little context for my stats. I took full season 5v5 stats and applied two filters: forwards only and minimun TOI of 495 minutes. That leaves us with the top 385 players by minutes played. Why 385? Because there are 32 teams and each with 12 regular forwards. 32 x 12 = 384, so pretty close. This way we can divide results by "1st line" (top 96 players), "2nd line" (97-192), etc. All stats are expressed as "per 60 minutes" to equalize for TOI differences.]

So here's how Foegele stacks up:

G/60: 0.93 (84th, tied with Panarin) 1st line rate
P/60: 2.09 (85th, tied with Tavares) 1st line rate
S/60: 9.36 (50th, tied with Cozens) 1st line rate
xG/60: 1.16 (9th, tied with Tavares) elite 1st line rate
SCF/60: 10.90 (23rd) elite 1st line rate
HDCF/60: 6.19 (8th), elite 1st line rate
Tka/60: 3.63 (3rd), elite 1st line rate
Hits/60: 7.11 (108th tied with Kreider) high 2nd line rate

Now consider that he spent just 8% of his TOI with McDavid this year. Foegele is a value contract. He scores at a 1st line rate while being paid like a 3rd liner.


He's a 3rd line winger and being deployed as such, averaging under 13 minutes a game, against lesser competition, with McDavid and Draisaitl drawing the hardest matchups.
At 12 minutes a game you only need 2 points every 5 games to hit those rates, that's not 1st line production. You're comparing apples with oranges.
May 8, 2023 at 3:31 p.m.
#13
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Quoting: ricochetii
He's a 3rd line winger and being deployed as such, averaging under 13 minutes a game, against lesser competition, with McDavid and Draisaitl drawing the hardest matchups.
At 12 minutes a game you only need 2 points every 5 games to hit those rates, that's not 1st line production. You're comparing apples with oranges.

He did play on the 3rd line, that's why his 27 points at 5v5 are so impressive. Only Suzuki had more for Montreal, for instance. And while you can point to lesser competition, he also had lesser linemates to work with too. He would be a 1st liner in Montreal. His impressive scoring combined with his top-10 chance generation + size + speed + physicality + low cap hit makes him a valuable player for any team. He won't be cheap.
May 8, 2023 at 4:32 p.m.
#14
Go Habs Go
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Quoting: CD282
He did play on the 3rd line, that's why his 27 points at 5v5 are so impressive. Only Suzuki had more for Montreal, for instance. And while you can point to lesser competition, he also had lesser linemates to work with too. He would be a 1st liner in Montreal. His impressive scoring combined with his top-10 chance generation + size + speed + physicality + low cap hit makes him a valuable player for any team. He won't be cheap.


Then he won't be going anywhere.
He's simply not a 1st liner and is only a complementary 2nd line option but he's too low on the depth chart to even get use there.
A surplus and replaceable player for the Oilers and nobody is giving up anything near a 1st, while the Oilers would be satisfied just to move him to bring in someone cheaper.
His 2 assists in 21 playoff games really kills his value. If anyone wanted him, it would be due to the perception he could excel in playoff style hockey and provide offense from the 3rd line.
May 8, 2023 at 4:37 p.m.
#15
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Quoting: ricochetii
Then he won't be going anywhere.

Good! I want to keep him.

He's a complimentary top-6 player the same way Hyman is a complimentary top-6 player. His 78 IPP tells me he's actually driving play in the bottom-6, not a complimentary player at all.
 
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