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Forums/Armchair-GM

panzer

Created by: tugspiedman
Team: 2023-24 Chicago Blackhawks
Initial Creation Date: May 9, 2023
Published: May 9, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Objectives:
- Continue accumulation of draft capital
-Bring in support and protection for Bedard
-Hit cap floor
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$1,000,000
2$1,100,000
2$950,000
2$775,000
2$1,500,000
2$1,500,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$2,250,000
CREATEDYEARSCAP HIT
Bedard, Connor
3$775,000
Trades
1.
CHI
  1. Yamamoto, Kailer
  2. 2024 1st round pick (EDM)
  3. 2024 2nd round pick (EDM)
EDM
  1. Murphy, Connor ($2,200,000 retained)
  2. Raddysh, Taylor
2.
CHI
  1. Bailey, Josh
  2. 2023 4th round pick (NYI)
  3. 2025 5th round pick (NYI)
NYI
3.
CHI
  1. 2023 1st round pick (PIT)
PIT
  1. 2023 2nd round pick (CHI)
  2. 2023 2nd round pick (OTT)
  3. 2023 3rd round pick (DAL)
4.
CHI
  1. Murray, Matt
  2. 2023 1st round pick (BOS)
TOR
  1. Mitchell, Ian [RFA Rights]
  2. 2024 6th round pick (CHI)
5.
CHI
  1. Reilly, Mike
  2. 2023 6th round pick (BOS)
BOS
Buyouts
Retained Salary Transactions
Recapture Fees
Buried
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2023
Logo of the CHI
Logo of the TBL
Logo of the PIT
Logo of the BOS
Logo of the NYR
Logo of the TBL
Logo of the CHI
Logo of the CHI
Logo of the NYI
Logo of the CHI
Logo of the BOS
Logo of the CHI
2024
Logo of the CHI
Logo of the TBL
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the CHI
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the CHI
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the CGY
Logo of the CHI
2025
Logo of the CHI
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the CHI
Logo of the DAL
Logo of the CHI
Logo of the CHI
Logo of the NYR
Logo of the NYI
Logo of the CHI
Logo of the CHI
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$83,500,000$60,642,624$0$1,355,000$22,857,376
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Chicago Blackhawks
$1,500,000$1,500,000
LW, C, RW
RFA - 2
Logo of the Chicago Blackhawks
$2,650,000$2,650,000
C, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Chicago Blackhawks
$5,000,000$5,000,000
RW, C, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Chicago Blackhawks
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$505,000$505K)
LW, C
RFA - 1
Bedard, Connor
$775,000$775,000
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,500,000$1,500,000
RW
RFA - 1
Logo of the New York Islanders
$5,000,000$5,000,000
RW, LW, C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Chicago Blackhawks
$950,000$950,000
C
RFA - 1
Logo of the Chicago Blackhawks
$1,100,000$1,100,000
LW, RW
UFA
Logo of the Chicago Blackhawks
$800,000$800,000
LW, C
RFA - 1
Logo of the Chicago Blackhawks
$800,000$800,000
RW, C
RFA - 1
Logo of the Chicago Blackhawks
$1,000,000$1,000,000
RW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Chicago Blackhawks
$758,333$758,333
LW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Chicago Blackhawks
$1,200,000$1,200,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Chicago Blackhawks
$1,500,000$1,500,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Chicago Blackhawks
$9,500,000$9,500,000
RD
NMC
UFA - 7
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$4,687,500$4,687,500
G
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Chicago Blackhawks
$916,667$916,667 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
LD
UFA - 1
$2,250,000$2,250,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Chicago Blackhawks
$950,000$950,000
G
RFA - 2
Logo of the Chicago Blackhawks
$925,000$925,000
LD
RFA - 1
Logo of the Chicago Blackhawks
$4,500,000$4,500,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Chicago Blackhawks
$1,250,000$1,250,000
LD
UFA - 1

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May 9, 2023 at 5:13 p.m.
#1
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Joined: Jan. 2023
Posts: 2,274
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Pens decline. No.
Haymaker26 liked this.
May 9, 2023 at 5:17 p.m.
#2
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Joined: Jun. 2021
Posts: 996
Likes: 422
Yeah, there is no incentive for the Penguins at all. The only team who might even consider is Edmonton, imo.
May 9, 2023 at 5:18 p.m.
#3
spoiled penguins fan
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Joined: May 2022
Posts: 2,695
Likes: 1,487
Quoting: JuanDamienNebraska
Pens decline. No.


Quoting: Haymaker26
Yeah, there is no incentive for the Penguins at all. The only team who might even consider is Edmonton, imo.


Nah pens accept that, I’d absolutely trade down for 2 seconds and a third. We need to better our prospect pool and this is a very deep draft.
J_w64 liked this.
May 9, 2023 at 5:33 p.m.
#4
Rip
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Joined: Dec. 2022
Posts: 11,709
Likes: 3,114
You guys set the market for Murray. He costs less to move than Mrazek did. Try again
May 9, 2023 at 5:35 p.m.
#5
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Posts: 996
Likes: 422
Quoting: Pensman69
Nah pens accept that, I’d absolutely trade down for 2 seconds and a third. We need to better our prospect pool and this is a very deep draft.


The odds of a pick turning into a player who plays in 100+ games after the 1st round fall dramatically. In a draft like this, I'd rather get a guy like Ryan Leonard or Axel Sandin-Pellikka than several picks afterwards. The Pens do need prospects. But with the old core and management that's clearly trying to make the most of what's left of it, a blue-chip prospect that could play with them when it matters is more valuable than a couple guys who'll be impactful either too late or not at all.
I don't think we'd get as much value from from several later picks, and that value is less likely to be actualized when it's most needed.
May 9, 2023 at 5:47 p.m.
#6
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Joined: Jun. 2018
Posts: 1,305
Likes: 373
I doubt the Pens would take that but, of course, it all depends on if they’re in love with a player still on the board.
May 9, 2023 at 6:12 p.m.
#7
Thread Starter
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Joined: Jun. 2022
Posts: 14
Likes: 10
Quoting: RipNasty
You guys set the market for Murray. He costs less to move than Mrazek did. Try again


Good point. Was thinking a 2nd was closer to fair value but Leafs don't have any lol
May 9, 2023 at 6:23 p.m.
#8
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Joined: Nov. 2022
Posts: 8,773
Likes: 10,655
Quoting: RipNasty
You guys set the market for Murray. He costs less to move than Mrazek did. Try again


Hawks don't need Murray. If Leafs don't like the offer, just keep Murray.
May 9, 2023 at 6:28 p.m.
#9
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Joined: Nov. 2022
Posts: 8,773
Likes: 10,655
Hawks don't make the Edmonton, NY Isles or Boston trades. Not enough value coming back to Hawks in any of those deals.
May 9, 2023 at 6:35 p.m.
#10
Go Jets, Go Hawks
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Posts: 320
Likes: 44
This draft is really deep - very little difference in players outside of the top 7, all the way to the end of the 3rd round. Trading 3 picks for a player at 14 that doesn't isn't going to be much better than a 3rd rounder isn't going to work - throw the NHL draft value guides out with this draft - it's really deep with excellent value outside of goalies everywhere.
May 9, 2023 at 6:52 p.m.
#11
Rip
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Joined: Dec. 2022
Posts: 11,709
Likes: 3,114
Quoting: Hawksguy81
Hawks don't need Murray. If Leafs don't like the offer, just keep Murray.


He will cost less to move than Mrazek but now that you have Bedard, having a goalie who isn't terrible is probably a good idea. Murray is a lot better than Mrazek.
May 9, 2023 at 7:18 p.m.
#12
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Posts: 8,773
Likes: 10,655
Quoting: RipNasty
He will cost less to move than Mrazek but now that you have Bedard, having a goalie who isn't terrible is probably a good idea. Murray is a lot better than Mrazek.


It's not like adding Bedard suddenly makes the Hawks a playoff contender. The bottom 9 forwards and the D will be pretty much the same as this season. A goalie upgrade isn't a priority.
May 9, 2023 at 10:25 p.m.
#13
spoiled penguins fan
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Joined: May 2022
Posts: 2,695
Likes: 1,487
Quoting: Haymaker26
The odds of a pick turning into a player who plays in 100+ games after the 1st round fall dramatically. In a draft like this, I'd rather get a guy like Ryan Leonard or Axel Sandin-Pellikka than several picks afterwards. The Pens do need prospects. But with the old core and management that's clearly trying to make the most of what's left of it, a blue-chip prospect that could play with them when it matters is more valuable than a couple guys who'll be impactful either too late or not at all.
I don't think we'd get as much value from from several later picks, and that value is less likely to be actualized when it's most needed.


Nah see that’s where you’re wrong. In such a deep draft like so, you have more of a chance of hitting on 3 top 60 picks on an A prospect (maybe even 2 A’s if you’re lucky) rather then picking at 14 and putting all ur eggs in 1 basket for a team that desperately needs youth and prospects in the system. And considering the fact that you would rather have 2 or 3 prospects develop and then if you’re still competing with the core you then have 2 or 3 guys (depending on how well you draft) all on ELC’s and all who hold considerable value if you want to make competitive trades involving say 1 of those prospects and are still in the position to do so with the core.

Also with your logic you are making it seem as if a player isn’t drafted in the top 15, they’re a bust. Which is incredibly false, again, in such a deep draft there’s virtually no difference then drafting 2 very early second round picks and an early third rather than a mid first. You’re still getting another draft year’s late first level talent with those 2 early seconds mainly.
May 11, 2023 at 10:32 a.m.
#14
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Quoting: Pensman69
Nah see that’s where you’re wrong. In such a deep draft like so, you have more of a chance of hitting on 3 top 60 picks on an A prospect (maybe even 2 A’s if you’re lucky) rather then picking at 14 and putting all ur eggs in 1 basket for a team that desperately needs youth and prospects in the system. And considering the fact that you would rather have 2 or 3 prospects develop and then if you’re still competing with the core you then have 2 or 3 guys (depending on how well you draft) all on ELC’s and all who hold considerable value if you want to make competitive trades involving say 1 of those prospects and are still in the position to do so with the core.

Also with your logic you are making it seem as if a player isn’t drafted in the top 15, they’re a bust. Which is incredibly false, again, in such a deep draft there’s virtually no difference then drafting 2 very early second round picks and an early third rather than a mid first. You’re still getting another draft year’s late first level talent with those 2 early seconds mainly.


There's a lot of this answer that misunderstands my point.
This is something that was pointed out on DobberProspects several years ago. Over the span of the 2000 to 2009 drafts, the difference in the number of players to hit 100+, 200+, and 300+ games don't differ all that much. There is a relation between the strength of the draft class and how many successful players were drafted out of it, looking at the strength of 2003, but it isn't actually that big of a difference. Their breakdown of the draft rounds is this: 74% of the 1st round selections played 100+ NHL games over this span. Only 34% of 2nd round picks did, and only 27% of 3rd round picks.
This class will probably be more successful than that average, but it would still be a notable dropoff after the first round.

I won't disagree that our system needs youth in it. But you're supposing here that the Pens draft really well and end up with 2 picks past the 1st round that will make the NHL before the core ages too much to succeed. That probably gives us 2 or 3 seasons at most. Whoever ends up at 14th overall is much more likely to do that than someone picked in the 40s or later.
Let's look at the 2020 draft as an example. Exactly 50 players in that draft have played at least one game in the NHL. 27 of them come from the 1st round, and only 2 players past the 2nd round have played more than 25 games. Yes, 2023 will be a better draft class, but it's still pretty telling. This would be around the age where those picks would need to show up to be actually help the core we have succeed. And comparing them to picks from other drafts does not help their case.

One final thing: "Also with your logic you are making it seem as if a player isn’t drafted in the top 15, they’re a bust." I don't know where you got that, because it's absurd. I'm saying the Penguins have a very tight window of contention, and that I think whoever ends up at 14th overall has a good chance of making the NHL before that window closes. I cannot say the same about anyone we draft after the first round. The picks the Pens receive here are 35th, 44th, and a late 3rd, depending on how well Dallas does for the rest of the playoffs. Mock Drafts currently have it at 89th. I only think the 35th would be close to making the NHL as quickly as whoever is 14th would, and I don't think they'd have as much of an impact when they do.

tl;dr: The 14th overall pick is IMO much more likely to provide an impact at the NHL level when Pittburgh needs it the most than any picks after the 1st round.
 
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