Quoting: Pensman69
Nah see that’s where you’re wrong. In such a deep draft like so, you have more of a chance of hitting on 3 top 60 picks on an A prospect (maybe even 2 A’s if you’re lucky) rather then picking at 14 and putting all ur eggs in 1 basket for a team that desperately needs youth and prospects in the system. And considering the fact that you would rather have 2 or 3 prospects develop and then if you’re still competing with the core you then have 2 or 3 guys (depending on how well you draft) all on ELC’s and all who hold considerable value if you want to make competitive trades involving say 1 of those prospects and are still in the position to do so with the core.
Also with your logic you are making it seem as if a player isn’t drafted in the top 15, they’re a bust. Which is incredibly false, again, in such a deep draft there’s virtually no difference then drafting 2 very early second round picks and an early third rather than a mid first. You’re still getting another draft year’s late first level talent with those 2 early seconds mainly.
There's a lot of this answer that misunderstands my point.
This is something that was pointed out on DobberProspects several years ago. Over the span of the 2000 to 2009 drafts, the difference in the number of players to hit 100+, 200+, and 300+ games don't differ all that much. There is a relation between the strength of the draft class and how many successful players were drafted out of it, looking at the strength of 2003, but it isn't actually that big of a difference. Their breakdown of the draft rounds is this: 74% of the 1st round selections played 100+ NHL games over this span. Only 34% of 2nd round picks did, and only 27% of 3rd round picks.
This class will probably be more successful than that average, but it would still be a notable dropoff after the first round.
I won't disagree that our system needs youth in it. But you're supposing here that the Pens draft really well and end up with 2 picks past the 1st round that will make the NHL before the core ages too much to succeed. That probably gives us 2 or 3 seasons at most. Whoever ends up at 14th overall is much more likely to do that than someone picked in the 40s or later.
Let's look at the 2020 draft as an example. Exactly 50 players in that draft have played at least one game in the NHL. 27 of them come from the 1st round, and only 2 players past the 2nd round have played more than 25 games. Yes, 2023 will be a better draft class, but it's still pretty telling. This would be around the age where those picks would need to show up to be actually help the core we have succeed. And comparing them to picks from other drafts does not help their case.
One final thing: "Also with your logic you are making it seem as if a player isn’t drafted in the top 15, they’re a bust." I don't know where you got that, because it's absurd. I'm saying the Penguins have a very tight window of contention, and that I think whoever ends up at 14th overall has a good chance of making the NHL before that window closes. I cannot say the same about anyone we draft after the first round. The picks the Pens receive here are 35th, 44th, and a late 3rd, depending on how well Dallas does for the rest of the playoffs. Mock Drafts currently have it at 89th. I only think the 35th would be close to making the NHL as quickly as whoever is 14th would, and I don't think they'd have as much of an impact when they do.
tl;dr: The 14th overall pick is IMO much more likely to provide an impact at the NHL level when Pittburgh needs it the most than any picks after the 1st round.