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An alternative look at Addison to DET

Created by: MNCountryClub
Team: 2023-24 Minnesota Wild
Initial Creation Date: May 19, 2023
Published: May 19, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Lots of ACGMs have DET sending a 2nd to MN for Addison, so I wanted to explore an alternative angle.

Based on previous 1st-for-1st trades, there doesn't appear to be anything overly egregious with the value here. DETs move for Cossa in 2021 and Rags move for Schneider in 2020 are pretty dang close comps. Since both of those come in less expensive than what MN gives up here, I've added a 4th to balance.

Proposed:
MN moves from 21 to 17 for pick 53 (Addison)

2022:
AZ moves from 27 to 11 for picks 34 and 45

2021:
MN moves from 22 to 20 for pick 90.
DET moves from 23 to 15 for 48 and 138

2020:
WASH moves from 24 to 22 for pick 80
NYR moves from 22 to 19 for pick 72
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$3,500,000
2$1,250,000
Trades
MIN
  1. 2023 1st round pick (NYI)
  2. 2023 4th round pick (MIN)
Additional Details:
Maybe a long shot, but this is done under the assumption that one of [Yager, Danielson, Moore or Dvorsky] are still on board at 17.

MN gets back the 4th from the Sunny trade as balancing.
DET
  1. Addison, Calen [RFA Rights]
  2. 2023 1st round pick (MIN)
Additional Details:
21st + Addison to move back 4 spots
Buyouts
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2023
Logo of the NYI
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the VGK
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MIN
2024
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MIN
2025
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MIN
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$83,500,000$83,534,421$0$990,000-$34,421
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$9,000,000$9,000,000
LW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$1,700,000$1,700,000
C, RW
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$6,000,000$6,000,000
RW, LW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$2,000,000$2,000,000
LW, RW
NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$5,250,000$5,250,000
C
UFA - 6
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$7,000,000$7,000,000
RW, LW
UFA - 7
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$3,100,000$3,100,000
RW, LW
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
C
RFA - 2
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$2,100,000$2,100,000
C, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$1,250,000$1,250,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$800,000$800,000
LW, C
RFA - 1
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$855,000$855,000 (Performance Bonus$57,500$58K)
RW, LW
RFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$2,450,000$2,450,000
LD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$7,575,000$7,575,000
RD
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$3,500,000$3,500,000
G
UFA - 3
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$6,000,000$6,000,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$925,000$925,000
RD
RFA - 2
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$3,500,000$3,500,000
G
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$1,200,000$1,200,000
LD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$2,000,000$2,000,000
LD/RD
NMC
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$894,167$894,167
LW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$828,333$828,333 (Performance Bonus$82,500$82K)
LD
RFA - 2

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May 19, 2023 at 4:33 p.m.
#26
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Quoting: drmantalban
Yeah Edstrom is interesting with his frame and production over the last year. Pronman has him at 18 in his latest list, as I'm sure you've seen. He's all over the place with different mocks, though.

I've not seen much of him or Stenberg, so I don't really have an opinion one way or the other.


Pronman had him going to the Habs that still list for a C. IDK how that changes the board but I’m more confident he’ll be there at 21.

From what I’ve read, Stenberg plays a bit like Ostlund but has a weird production split. IMO not terribly interesting to me at 21 but I’m no scout.
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May 19, 2023 at 4:42 p.m.
#27
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Quoting: jnowariak
Pronman had him going to the Habs that still list for a C. IDK how that changes the board but I’m more confident he’ll be there at 21.

From what I’ve read, Stenberg plays a bit like Ostlund but has a weird production split. IMO not terribly interesting to me at 21 but I’m no scout.


Yeah from what I'm seeing across a few different lists, it seems pretty likely that both are avail at 21. Consensus seems to be that Stenberg projects more as a winger than C, so if that's accurate, I'd probably dock him down a bit given our needs. But yeah I'm no scout either, so guess we'll see.
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May 19, 2023 at 4:43 p.m.
#28
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Quoting: drmantalban
Fair enough. Feel like you're missing some of the nuance here, but not gonna criticize opinions.

Out of curiosity, who are your top 5 preferred choices at 17 (excluding inconceivable choices like Bedard or Fantilli)?


Nuance is one thing but I'd just rather not lower the value of 17 oa for an asset I like but can be had for alternate pieces. At 17 I'd love if someone like Barlow or Wood maybe Danielson or Ritchie. I suppose the Rd options maybe Sandin-pillikka or wallander are available.
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May 19, 2023 at 4:48 p.m.
#29
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Quoting: Jfstompers
Nuance is one thing but I'd just rather not lower the value of 17 oa for an asset I like but can be had for alternate pieces. At 17 I'd love if someone like Barlow or Wood maybe Danielson or Ritchie. I suppose the Rd options maybe Sandin-pillikka or wallander are available.


Feels like Danielson/Wallinder fit the bill at 9 for DET, Barlow or Simashev feel like decent bets at 17. Ritchie feels like he’s falling.
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May 19, 2023 at 4:59 p.m.
#30
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Quoting: Jfstompers
Nuance is one thing but I'd just rather not lower the value of 17 oa for an asset I like but can be had for alternate pieces. At 17 I'd love if someone like Barlow or Wood maybe Danielson or Ritchie. I suppose the Rd options maybe Sandin-pillikka or wallander are available.


Well that's exactly the nuance. Until we see how the draft plays out, it's entirely possible that you could get one of those pieces at 21. So you'd be getting a player that you were perfectly content to take at 17 + Addison, without giving up the 2nd.

Or, just as well, it could be that none of those names are available at 17. If that were to happen, you would no longer be working within your top 6 preferred choices at 17....so the question is, do you really value choice number 7 MORE than what you'd have at 21?

It's not just that you're giving up a 1st for Addison when you don't have to. It's the opportunity cost of potentially get both Addison and one of your top choices without giving up a 2nd.
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May 19, 2023 at 6:37 p.m.
#31
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Quoting: jnowariak
Feels like Danielson/Wallinder fit the bill at 9 for DET, Barlow or Simashev feel like decent bets at 17. Ritchie feels like he’s falling.


Danielson or Wallinder seem like reach at 9 in this draft but who knows the value of guys in the 7-15 range is all over the place. Big fan of simashev but we're just so loaded at LD I don't see him getting picked.
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May 19, 2023 at 6:40 p.m.
#32
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Quoting: drmantalban
Well that's exactly the nuance. Until we see how the draft plays out, it's entirely possible that you could get one of those pieces at 21. So you'd be getting a player that you were perfectly content to take at 17 + Addison, without giving up the 2nd.

Or, just as well, it could be that none of those names are available at 17. If that were to happen, you would no longer be working within your top 6 preferred choices at 17....so the question is, do you really value choice number 7 MORE than what you'd have at 21?

It's not just that you're giving up a 1st for Addison when you don't have to. It's the opportunity cost of potentially get both Addison and one of your top choices without giving up a 2nd.


No I get it if you're at 17 and there are 6 dudes you love but I don't just assume they will but who knows maybe day of draft it makes sense but at this moment Its hard to say yes too.
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May 19, 2023 at 8:32 p.m.
#33
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Quoting: Jfstompers
No I get it if you're at 17 and there are 6 dudes you love but I don't just assume they will but who knows maybe day of draft it makes sense but at this moment Its hard to say yes too.


For sure, I get that. I actually agree with you tbh. My only point this whole thread was that’s it’s not the type of trade you just snap decline on. “DET says no” is such a lazy reply.

Not directed at you, but this site is so rinse and repeat of “so and so laughs and hangs up”….but when anything even remotely reasonable pops up, it still gets met with the automatic insta-no’s. Like why the hell even spend time on this site if there’s no opportunity or interest to discuss valuations?
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May 19, 2023 at 8:52 p.m.
#34
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Quoting: drmantalban
For sure, I get that. I actually agree with you tbh. My only point this whole thread was that’s it’s not the type of trade you just snap decline on. “DET says no” is such a lazy reply.

Not directed at you, but this site is so rinse and repeat of “so and so laughs and hangs up”….but when anything even remotely reasonable pops up, it still gets met with the automatic insta-no’s. Like why the hell even spend time on this site if there’s no opportunity or interest to discuss valuations?


What's the story with Addison anyways, he seems affordable is he that bad defensively that Minny is just moving on ?
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May 19, 2023 at 8:55 p.m.
#35
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Quoting: Jfstompers
What's the story with Addison anyways, he seems affordable is he that bad defensively that Minny is just moving on ?


This is a fantastic question that doesn’t have a good answer. Addison didn’t have a great 5v5 year and the coach is asking him to play a game he can’t play. Still an electric factory on the PP and makes things happen in the O zone but it feels like there’s something personal between him and the coach.
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May 19, 2023 at 9:39 p.m.
#36
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Quoting: jnowariak
Edstrom is a super interesting name right now, I don’t think he was on either Button or McKenzie’s list until recently and that’s a hype train that probs doesn’t get past 21 if MN is there.

Question I have with Stenberg is whether he’s done enough to be closer to 20 rather than 30.


Quoting: JoeROFLCOPTER
Well Wallinder is looking like he should go top 15. Cossa stings, but it's not as bad as you may be making it out to be.


I think Stenberg goes closer to 20 then 30

I wouldn’t be surprised if he did, I just know in most mocks his ranking was in the 40-50s before rising. I’m fine with Cossa, I just thought Wally was the guy.
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May 20, 2023 at 1:14 p.m.
#37
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Quoting: HockeyIsMyPassion61
Detroit passes, We're not trading back 4 spots with the 17th pick, If anything Yzerman would use that one to move up to 12th or 13th overall perhaps even 11th depending on what Vancouver wants to do.


"We're not trading back" do you ride on Stevie Y's shoulder or how do you fit the equation because I always laugh when I see people on these sites who act as though they know exactly what the actual GM is thinking. From a strictly value this isn't a horrible trade and you have ZERO clue if it would interest the actual GM.
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May 20, 2023 at 1:19 p.m.
#38
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Quoting: Jfstompers
What's the story with Addison anyways, he seems affordable is he that bad defensively that Minny is just moving on ?


Wild need to get bigger on the right side. Spurgeon/Addison/Faber don't provide much size and teams with bigger LW's can give that trio problems.
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May 20, 2023 at 2:24 p.m.
#39
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Quoting: Jeffrey4649
Wild need to get bigger on the right side. Spurgeon/Addison/Faber don't provide much size and teams with bigger LW's can give that trio problems.


IMO, this is an overly simplistic reason. Addison will never be a stout D zone defender due to his size but can likely improve his poke checking ability and can already defend the rush with his skating, which is a complementary skill given how he should play in the O zone. Evason wants to play a game that assumes players don’t have any skill and that really kills potential for guys like Addison.
May 21, 2023 at 9:56 a.m.
#40
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Quoting: jnowariak
IMO, this is an overly simplistic reason. Addison will never be a stout D zone defender due to his size but can likely improve his poke checking ability and can already defend the rush with his skating, which is a complementary skill given how he should play in the O zone. Evason wants to play a game that assumes players don’t have any skill and that really kills potential for guys like Addison.


Speaking of over simplistic, Evason wants to play a game assuming players have no skill? If Addison played the game like Spurgeon you could do this. But he refuses because apparently he knows better. That tells me he needs to be awakened by being traded. If you look at teams remaining in the playoffs defensive size or players who play above their weight class is key. He cannot play defense like he's 5-9 170 lbs.
May 21, 2023 at 12:43 p.m.
#41
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Quoting: Jeffrey4649
Speaking of over simplistic, Evason wants to play a game assuming players have no skill? If Addison played the game like Spurgeon you could do this. But he refuses because apparently he knows better. That tells me he needs to be awakened by being traded. If you look at teams remaining in the playoffs defensive size or players who play above their weight class is key. He cannot play defense like he's 5-9 170 lbs.


Evason’s system is about forechecking and limiting chances, Addison excels at pushing the offensive side of the game with possession. If he works on his stick checking this summer, I don’t see why he’s not a #4. I’m 100% with you that he’s not suited to that style but the coach needs to maximize the tools he has, not try to fit a square peg into a round hole.

We never got to see what he looks like next to Brods and that’s a pair I think has a lot of potential to both create and defend off the rush. You need to utilize Addison’s skating and vision to allow him to succeed, not force him to play net front.
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May 21, 2023 at 12:49 p.m.
#42
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Great engagement in this thread!

Theoretically the value is right and I appreciate the thought experiment. I actually came here to see what next team’s cap situation looks like. They don’t really have any cap dumps and no room to sign to get better. Looks like Guerin will be hunting for fun depth gambles and crossing fingers that Rossi is ready.

In both picks’ range I love Simashev and have lots of time for Hronek and But. Using all of your institutional knowledge and effort re getting Kaprizov to come over makes Minny a great team to land one of the Russian fallers
May 21, 2023 at 3:04 p.m.
#43
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Quoting: jnowariak
Evason’s system is about forechecking and limiting chances, Addison excels at pushing the offensive side of the game with possession. If he works on his stick checking this summer, I don’t see why he’s not a #4. I’m 100% with you that he’s not suited to that style but the coach needs to maximize the tools he has, not try to fit a square peg into a round hole.

We never got to see what he looks like next to Brods and that’s a pair I think has a lot of potential to both create and defend off the rush. You need to utilize Addison’s skating and vision to allow him to succeed, not force him to play net front.


I mean, I agree with your point on Addison. But he DID play with Brodin for a short spell last year for something like 3 games or such while Dumba was out. I think they looked good together, but it was too short of a span to determine if he was a fit there or not.
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May 21, 2023 at 4:51 p.m.
#44
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Quoting: RazWild
I mean, I agree with your point on Addison. But he DID play with Brodin for a short spell last year for something like 3 games or such while Dumba was out. I think they looked good together, but it was too short of a span to determine if he was a fit there or not.


I missed that I guess, lol. I think the bigger point is that I think Addy can have success with this team, but that will require Dean to move away from his platonic ideal of how to play.

Even if Addy is only a 4/5 d man at his peak, I just have a bad feeling that he’s gonna put up neutral defensive numbers and 50 pts a season if we give up on him.
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