No chance Habs say yes to this

Hell naw

Not for that he isn't. Take out Hoffman and maybe.

Jets say no

MTL => sheds some cap. trades down in 1st round. Throws in another pick because WPG can't add salary and Dubois is worth it.

WPG => Gets 5OA in a great draft, can cop a legit young player to build around. If Hoffman doesn't work out, they can sell him as a rental, makes salaries work, and they can fit his hit. Dvorak is a necessary add, with salary and lineup need. Appleton is kinda a cap dump, but his deal isn't terrible, and maybe he revives under MSL like Gurianov or Drouin... (LoL)

Both teams win

I don’t think Montreal will deal 5OA for Dubois, especially since it’s like a 90% chance Dubois ends up a Hab next offseason. They can just go through another rebuilding year, make their pick, end up with another high pick in 24’, and still get Dubois in the end.

Both teams decline.

both teams incline

Winnipeg doesn't decline this... they'll take that lump of coal (Dvorak) for that drastic a move-up in the draft, trade for Connor Garland for cheap to reunite the two and help them recuperate some value. Hoffman they can just buy out.

This trade wasn't realistic the moment you put the 5OA in there. We are not moving that pick for Dubois.

What's your hard-on for Dvorak? Your bias there is quite clear.

Ask why every Habs fan that includes him in hypothetical deals...

In 2013, the Leafs had this guy named Tyler Bozak, who was an okay 3rd C (better than Dvorak at least on the defensive side, also didn't black hole his line), but Bozak was always added to every deal like his value could help facilitate a buy for a higher valued player. Christian Dvorak is the Habs Tyler Bozak but worse because unless his linemates pass him the puck, they aren't producing because his ability to play center is questionable outside of his faceoffs.

He's included in the trade as we would be upgrading from him to PLD? That's the point of the trade... we swap players and pay the difference?

PLD said he isn't resigning, so WPG has to move him. You saw what CGY got for Tkachuk, and it's somewhat similar situation. Clearly Tkachuk is better at this point than PLD and would be 1 or 2 OA in that class now, but PLD was still #3 in a good draft class (could even argue he'd go 3OA in a redraft), and for some reason, I feel like he has said or there've been rumors for awhile he'd prefer to go to MTL.

This trade is contingent on MTL actually valuing him highly and wanting to maximize their roster. From it's construction, it looks like they are not rebuilding. Anyway, Habs are always a team looking to win. So, right now, hands down, PLD is a better player than whoever you get 5OA. So the player wants to go there and, on paper, it looks like a good fit on their roster.

Going from 5 to 18 is tough for MTL but you can still get a good player at 18 in a good class.

The Jets are also a team that doesn't want to suck any time soon. They have a strange make up and are about to transition to a younger core group. Wheeler, Sheifele, Hellebuyck, all potentially gone this year. Some of their D too. But they're trying to actively get younger while staying competitive and maximize return for veteran assets. PLD wants out. You have to imagine, him being a quality, established NHLer who hasn't hit his ceiling and was 3OA in a good class, WPG will demand a 1st rd pick in this draft, no matter how high it is.

Dvorak coming back for WPG, it fits the positional need of a gap at C for WPG and clears some cap for MTL which they need. That's why you include Hoffman too, they need to shed, and WPG needs short term help to stay competitive. MTL on the other hand, has MSL army guys like Harvey-Pinard, Ylonen, Belzille, and others, to fill roster spots at fractions of the cost. Funnily enough, they need the great young player less than WPG does.

Win win baby

I like all of that except the 5OA part. That FLA 1st will be the one that moves imo. Can't see Hughes moving that 5OA pick and dropping out of the top 10 at the absolute most. Can't see him being too keen on moving both the FLA 1st & MTL 2nd though since it's likely we draft a G there and that's something we need. Like you pointed out we have great young players, could add an additional one at an area of excess for MTL if really required instead of the MTL 2nd. PLD would be a great add but we also shouldn't be moving pieces that disturb the current trajectory.

True I added some extra stuff because that's what WPG needs and they're in the driver seat, like does MTL value PLD enough to overpay for him? Their will be other suitors. We're talking a stud #2C to Suzuki who can play 1C and who wants to be in MTL. They'd be able to sign and trade an 8 year deal.

I get that it's the 5OA in a stacked draft. I've heard great things about both Michkov and Smith and would love to have either one. This just makes sense for both teams, like MTL values cap space and PLD while WPG values youth and next generation talent.

The FLA first is 31 or 32 it's basically a high 2nd. Sorry but that isn't moving the needle for PLD. They traded Laine, remember 2OA in the same draft, for PLD (plus Roslovic). He hasn't lost value. They will get a high 1st round pick for him, minimum.

If they keep the FLA 1 or MTL 2 that's fine like I said, sweetener! Who knows maybe this becomes a wild deal and they pry Hellebuyck too with some Guhle/Harris/Richard inclusion.

With Hoffman, I imagine they'd take the approach of hey this is a contract year for you, go do your thing. Lots of guys are expiring UFAs on that team (Sheif, Wheeler, Hellebuyck, Nino, Demelo, Dillon) and they need depth scoring.

If they miss this year, and things go south, they'll firesale and recoup a bounty that might make CGY a bit jealous. Buying out Hoffman costs them money and they get nothing for it. If they play him at least they can flip him at the deadline and get something ya dig.

Now about Garland...

If it doesn't move the needle, then oh well we keep 5OA. That pick will not be moving for PLD, not sorry about that. If we get him at what is reasonable for us then we do it otherwise send him elsewhere, like I said don't disturb the current projection.

MTL is mid rebuild, we value next generation talent as much as the next team and we're not interested in trading it away when it is unnecessary. It cold be Reinbacher or Leonard and I still wouldn't move the pick for him. We aren't interested in a 30 year old goaltender looking for a new contract and we're sure as hell not moving Guhle. Not sure why you think MTL needs to gut their rebuild, there are plenty of assets of value in MTL and any trade WILL include the FLA first. That's not really a debate, FLA 1st + or no trade. We'll live without him honestly, our future doesn't hinge on PLD.

I feel you on that but ya know, let's say other teams want Dubois and it's not a guarantee they get him next year. Do they pay for the certainty?

I get where you're coming from but because you already have all those assets you don't really need the 5OA and I don't think it would be "gutting the rebuild", as you say, by signing a legit high end 2C to an 8 year deal. This team isn't built to be rebuilding in all these years they signed Suzuki and Caufield for. Plus you're still moving down to 18, which realistically, you should still be able to get a good player at in a stacked class.

If Columbus is willing to potentially move 3OA to Van then a team who picked 1st last year sitting at 5 shouldn't be afraid to move it. And ya know, you're kind of downplaying PLD here. He was 3rd in his class. That's 2 higher than 5. Who's to say PLD > 5OA over the course of the next 5-10 years?

There isn't much I would move 5OA for, PLD is not part of that "much". I'm not downplaying him but you're downplaying 5OA for MTL. That pick is huge. With all the assets we both keep pointing at there is no reason for MTL to move their 5OA when they can add value with those pieces. No matter how you slice it 5OA for PLD isn't a good idea for MTL. We don't have to move it for him and we don't want to move it for him, therefore we won't. PLD has brought 60 point seasons, wonderful. Not worth 5OA.

I mean... let's take a look at the 5OA's recently, since PLD went 3 in a good draft.

22- Cutter Gauthier
21- Kent Johnson
20- Jake Sanderson
19- Alex Turcotte
18- Barrett Hayton
17- Elias Pettersson
16- Olli Juolevi (his year)
15- Noah Hanifin
14- Michael Dal Colle
13- Elias Lindholm

Now... PLD is the third best player out of this list, and Lindholm didn't even get good until he went to Calgary. PLD was good right away, which is no guarantee for a young player... Just ask Turcotte and his 0 career points. Yeah, some of these were mistakes and there were much better players available after. But it doesn't matter because that's part of it; the variance of players being impactful the farther you get from the #1 selection.

You know what you're getting with PLD and he is def more valuable as a known commodity. Most likely, he will have a better season in 24 than whoever you take with 5. Straight up. And maybe even for the extent of his 8 year deal because his ceiling, playing for a team he actually cares about and being locked in where he wants to be, that might raise it. It looks like MTL is building a roster with the intent to compete here.

Guess we'll see if MSL wants him bad enough!

But, especially with this scenario, I see it as a win win.

Yeah having the 5OA would be great but its not a guaranteed high end 2C who hasn't hit his prime yet. Most likely, you're taking time to develop that pick.

Unless Will Smith is just better than PLD right now... if so please enlighten me