Team: 2023-24 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Jul. 6, 2023

Published: Jul. 8, 2023

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Here is what I would like to see the Leafs do this off-season. I did my best to add playoff style players in the mold of the Vegas Golden Knights. I also did my best to regain draft picks for the 2025 draft two years from now where Toronto has very few picks.

- Auston Matthews re-signs for 4 yrs at $12,750,000 AAV

- Calgary Trade: Nylander and Liljegren to Calgary in exchange for Lindholm, Zadorov, '24 CGY 1st Rd Pick, and '25 CGY 2nd Rd Pick

The idea for this trade is pretty straightforward. It is highly unlikely the Leafs are going to be able to retain William Nylander, and the likelihood of him being traded has shot up since the Leafs were eliminated by the Florida Panthers. The Leafs need to find a team willing to extend Nylander at his asking price in order to maximize the return, which is very high at $10,000,000. I believe Nylander would waive his modified no-trade clause in most situations where a team is willing to give him his money.

The Leafs would send Nylander with an 8 yr extension at $10,000,000 AAV to Calgary, alongside Timothy Liljegren. Calgary is desperate for scoring help, having only had 3 players hit 20 goals last season, and this problem has been exacerbated with the departure of Tyler Toffoli, their only 30 goal scorer. Nylander would bring Calgary a legitimate first-line scoring forward capable of scoring 35-40 goals each season. He also has a clean record with virtually no injury history. This will also give Huberdeau a lethal passing option on the powerplay that he dearly missed last year as his numbers plummeted. Liljegren on the other hand brings Calgary a young defencemen with full team control. Once Liljegren's contract is up at the end of the coming season, he is still a restricted free agent. One of Calgary's glaring off-season concerns currently is that so many of their top players are reportedly not looking to re-sign (Hanifin, Lindholm, Backlund, etc.), Liljegren would bring Calgary the security of having a player committed to staying long-term with the potential to grow further.

The Leafs in return would acquire the final year of both Elias Lindholm and Nikita Zadorov's deals, as well as a 2024 1st round pick and a 2025 1st round pick. On it's face, this may look like a steep price for the Flames to pay in this trade, but in reality the Leafs are taking all the risk on in this situation given that the two players they are acquiring can essentially walk for nothing in a year's time. I came up with this trade as sort of a mirror to what Treliving did last summer in moving Tkachuk. He extended Tkachuk to an 8 year term, then sent him to Florida for two expiring contracts, Jonathan Huberdeau and Mackenzie Weegar, plus a 1st round pick and prospect Cole Schwindt. He then made attempts to re-sign both players and was ultimately successful. Lindholm and Zadorov in this situation provide two different areas of need for Toronto. Lindholm can take pressure off Tavares or even move him to the left wing, and he plays a full 200 foot game with more mobility than Ryan O'Reilly. Zadorov is a punishing 6'5" defensive defencemen who can play either side of the ice, a potential match made in heaven to play the right side with Morgan Rielly. Also, if Lindholm and Zadorov are extended by Treliving, they will each be taking less money than Nylander, which helps the Leafs allocate money in different areas rather than committing to paying the "Big Four" all the money for even more seasons in the future. The Flames will add the first and second round picks as sweetener just as Florida did to ease the risk that Toronto is undertaking. Please keep in mind that Treliving has literally pulled off a similar trade in an identical situation, and he is very familiar with both players given that he was their front office boss in Calgary.

- Philadelphia Trade: Matt Murray, T.J. Brodie, Nick Robertson, '24 CGY 1st-Round Pick, and '24 NYI 3rd Rd Pick to Philadelphia in exchange for Travis Konecny at 50% salary retention.

Philadelphia has proven this summer that they are willing to eat salary in order to acquire draft capital and prospects. This was shown when GM Danny Briere sent Ivan Provorov to Columbus in a three-team deal and took on goaltender Cal Petersen's $5,000,000 contract with multiple years remaining as part of a return that also included a first and second rounder, defenceman Sean Walker, and prospect Helge Grans. In a similar fashion, Treliving can use this as an opportunity not only to offload Murray's contract but to look to acquire another winger to replace Nylander's production.

Travis Konecny is coming off a 30 goal season, and brings a competitive streak that Toronto has been searching for since Treliving took over. This to me would be a perfect fit in the Leafs top-six. In order to make this trade work given the salary cap restraints, Philadelphia would retain 50% of his total salary for the remaining two seasons. At $2,750,000 AAV, Konecny will give a proven top-six threat for the next two seasons at a discounted rate. His contract will be expiring the same summer that Tavares' contract is, and some of Tavares $11,000,000 AAV can be redistributed to Konecny should the Leafs opt to re-sign him.

In return for Konecny, the Flyers would get the following. Nick Robertson is a player that the Flyers have been linked to by Elliotte Friedman as recently as last season, and gives them a young winger with second line potential. T.J. Brodie gives the Flyers a defencemen who can mentor young defencemen like Cam York, and then be flipped at the deadline for even more assets given that he is in the final year of his deal. Given that defencemen like Filip Hronek and Ben Chiarot have fetched 1st round picks at the two most recent deadlines, I don't think it's outlandish to suggest Brodie will get the Flyers that return, at worst it would be a second rounder and another prospect.

The first round pick that the Flyers will receive is the one that I acquired in that Calgary trade. I suspect that with Nylander and given Calgary's weak division, they would likely be a wild card calibre team, but If Calgary misses the playoffs, that would give the Flyers a top-16 pick. I would put no top-10 protection to sweeten the pot for Philadelphia. The Leafs need Konecny in their current win-now mode more than a top-10 prospect, as bad as that could look down the road. Philadelphia also receives the '24 NYI 3rd Rd Pick acquired in the Pierre Engvall trade. Finally, the Matt Murray situation. Once he is acquired, the Flyers will place him on unconditional waivers for the purpose of a buyout. This will carry a cap hit of $687,500 this coming season, and $2,000,000 the following season. The incentive, again, is that the Flyers are getting an unprotected (likely Calgary) first round pick, a top prospect in Robertson, third round pick, and Brodie (basically equivalent of a late first round pick at the deadline). The Flyers will have plenty to work with once Brodie is flipped making the Murray salary an afterthought given there is already evidence they will eat bad money.

- Colorado Trade: Calle Jarnkrok to Colorado in exchange for a 2025 COL 4th Rd Pick

A simple cap dump from a Toronto perspective. In Colorado's case, they give up a mid-round future draft pick to get an affordable middle-six contract that helps them fill out their roster. Colorado definitely needs more scoring depth which is why they have made some off-season moves upfront. 3 more years at a $2,100,000 AAV for winger coming off a 20 goal season is great value. With this draft pick as well as the '25 2nd Rd Pick acquired from Calgary in the Nylander trade, Treliving is re-stocking next years' draft capital that was traded away by Dubas in recent years. This will prove to be important in the following season at the trade deadline with the Leafs more than likely still being a potential cup contender.

- Leafs extend RFA goaltender Ilya Samsonov for 2 years at $4,000,000 AAV

The term for Samsonov's extension is very important. Giving him a bridge deal at $4,000,000 for 2 yrs allows the Leafs to avoid giving him money over a medium to long term, and also allows Samsonov to bet on himself and test the open market as a 28 year old in 2025. This contract would expire in unison with Joseph Woll's, and it would allow Treliving to evaluate who he sees as the future Leafs netminder for the next two seasons and then make his decision.

- Leafs sign UFAs Matt Dumba and Austin Watson

Matt Dumba provides a replacement for T.J. Brodie's top-4 minutes but with a different profile. He is a much more aggressive and physical player, and he is coming off an down year so I think the Leafs can likely get him on a 1 year deal just like they did with Bertuzzi, Domi, and Klingberg. I have Dumba at 1 yr $3,000,000 AAV. He also has significant injury history which lowers his value, but he can kill penalties and averaged over 21 minutes per game with Minnesota last season.

I also have the Leafs signing Austin Watson for 1 yr $950,000 AAV. He is a huge winger who is surprisingly a good skater that brings the ability to kill penalties, hit, and fight. A fourth line of Watson - Kampf - Reaves could look to replicate what the Lightning had with Maroon - Bellemare - Perry, which is an intimidating fourth line that wears teams down every time they are out. Both Dumba and Watson bring a "playoff style" that I think the Leafs are targeting.

Please let me know what you think in the comments below. I would love to hear any suggestions or feedback!

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