I'm about 99% sure Petry isn't waiving for SJ which is the big hold up.

Petry isn't waiving for San Jose.

Plus that offer hardly gets the Sharks to retain $3,000,000 on Erik Karlsson. Let alone what you're going to have to pay Chicago to eat $6,000,000 for 4 seasons.

Agreed with the first part but not the second. 1.5MM isn't crazy when the cap is going up by a ton.

I'll say from the start, I'm of the belief that the penguins won't end up landing Karlsson, but will add the following.

Granlund going over Petry makes more sense in the SJ deal (also don't believe Petry waives for SJS). Same term but $1m less in Cap. Would also say that's not a bad offer at all. POJ took a big step this past season and can without question play second pair minutes, only 24. Pickering is the penguins best prospect. You can swap the third for a 2nd if you want. Granlund could also easily be flipped at rention next year for additional picks. So i'd disagree, that is probably most likely what the offer is going to look like from any team trying to get Karlsson. A cap dump (because karlsson makes so much), a decent younger player, prospect and some picks.

The sharks have to take a cap heavy contract back in that deal though, it doesn't matter what team the trade is with, and they're going to have to eat some cap regardless of what team the trade is with. The sharks know that and every team interested in Karlsson knows that. I do think the penguins and canes are just playing the waiting game. Sharks fans keep thinking the sharks have the upper hand but I don't believe that. If his Cap hit was $8M AVV or if the Salary cap was $100M+ they would absolutely have a massive upper hand, but $11.5M AAV for 4 more years... They either keep him and get nothing to help in a rebuild or sell him for less than he's worth and get some assets for their rebuild.

The Sharks are clearly in rebuild, they do not have a playoff team and are easily still a few years away. So they have three options imo:

1. Keep Karlsson
2. Don't trade this summer, go into the season and Karlsson either A. picks up an injury or B. regresses back in points and with either his trade value drops and the sharks are still not a playoff team.
3. Sharks trade him now, get some assets to help continue working on a rebuild and open his spot to a prospect or younger player in their roster to take a step forward.

that's how I see it playing out. Grier is in a tough position as a first time GM, it's not an easy situation for him to navigate.

I some how quoted myself so enjoy that.

If it isnt crazy and the cap is going up then cant the pens just afford it? Hawks decline on using a retention spot for 4 years and taking on another cap dump for less than fair value.

What is fair value? In the last few years, 1 year of 1.5MM was worth a 4th round pick. I think a 2nd would cover 4 years. The other 2nd would be to take Granlund...

The Penguins could eat the $1.5M the last three years of his deal, but not this year (assuming Karlsson would happen) they just do not have the space, and whomever they'd move out would be just enough to take on Karlsson.

Bailey cost a second to dump and he had 1 year left, Zaitsev had ~1.5 years left and cost a 2nd and 4th, Granlund for the full 2 seasons costs more than a single second. Hard to gauge what the retention slot would cost for 4 years, but it it makes the Hawks moves into the future more difficult to navigate with basically only 1 retention slot left.

I agree it's hard to put a price on retention for 4 years. The cost isn't as big of an issue as the slot being taken.

I don't know if Granlund would cost more than a 2nd, since he can be bought out with little pain. My guess is he goes that route.