I would specify more of the conditions of the 2nd becoming a first instead of just the playoffs. Something to the effect of Penguins win Stanley Cup in '24 or '25 and Karlsson plays in 50% of teams playoff games during cup run

Pass. This is closer in value to simply dumping Granlund and Petry than it is to acquiring the reigning norris winner locked up at a reasonable 8mil aav for your 2-year cup window.

Where is the source for this? Just curious.

I'm legit surprised Grier is asking for two 1sts.

I'd anticipate seeing Nylander with Malkin and rust on the 3rd line, if Nylander falters rust bumps back up but that's just my opinion and i think gives Nylander the best chance to succeed.

Petry isn't going to SJS if that deal ever even happens. I haven't thought it'd happen since day 1 because Karlsson's contract creates so many complications. You need a third team to retain and i doubt anyone wants that for four years and the sharks are just straight up asking for too much on a 33yr old defenseman making $11.5M for 4 more years lol. I get it, he just won his third Norris but his contract makes trading for him from a contender that's already going to be cash strapped so unlikely.

I am also perfectly fine running Graves/Petey/Letang/Petry as the top 4, no issues (of course Karlsson makes it way better). POJ and Smith could be the bot pair or Cal Foote would be a cheap RD option.

I think they need to find new homes for Rutta and DeSmith to open cap.

DOC's hearing for Arbitration is August 4th. Once he signs (if he signs) the penguins have 72 hours from that point for a second Buyout. My assumption is until the day DOC signs Dubas is going to explore every option he has to move Granlund.

If they can move him or buy him out i'd call Anaheim on Henrique for 3C. Big upgrade, can jump to top 6 if there is an injury and you could probably get him retained and not for a massive cost going back (2nd and Poulin). I also think DOC takes a step forward with third line minutes and better linemates.

If you could have a bottom 6 of:

DOC-Henrique-Rust
Nieto-Eller-Acciari

If DOC and Nylander both show a leap forward you could really spread out your talent to something like:

Guentzel-Crosby-Rakell
DOC-Malkin-Rust
Smith-Henrique-Nylander
Nieto-Eller-Acciari

and have guys like Johnsson, Zohorna, Hinostroza, Puustenin that can rotate in for injuries that's really great depth imo

Lot's of ifs but if i was Dubas i'd personally look to upgrade the bottom/middle 6 and move on from the Karlsson deal.

Yeah I agree, the more specific the better for those

I'm willing to bet a Sharks or Penguins jersey that if the trade happens that Petry is not going to San Jose.

He either gets moved to another team on the side or San Jose flips him as part of the trade.

The return for EK is going to be so underwhelming SJ fans are going to freak out. BTW some are saying the sharks gave EK permission to speak directly with the Pens and Canes to see what their proposed plan is for him on the roster.

I think Karlsson needs another Norris caliber year this 2024 season for teams to give up fair value for a reigning Norris trophy winner. It was his first good season in four years and GMs are terrified of getting one of his bad seasons or injuries.

I find that hard to believe. McGinn-Carter-Kapanen had the 6th lowest xGoals% of any forward line to play 100+ minutes, and Heinen-Carter-McGinn wasn't good either. Last year's 3rd line was unironically one of the worst in the league.
At the very least, Eller, Acciari, and Nieto are good defensively - which our entire bottom 6 lacked last season - and the likes of DOC, Nylander, Hinnestroza, and Johnsson have offensive upside.



I'm going to spend an unhealthy amount of time and effort arguing that it's better than that. Sorry, I guess?

The Penguins team last season ended with 91 points in a division that boasted 2 of the top 3 teams in the league. And they got better in the offseason.
Ryan Graves is a legit top 4 defenseman and an enormous upgrade over what Brian Dumoulin was last year. His presence should take some of the burden off of Pettersson, improve the PK, and give Petry/Karlsson and Letang a consistent, defensively responsible partner to compliment their games.

The top 6 was stellar last season. The Jake-Sid-Raks and Zuck-Geno-Rust lines were both top 10 in xG/60 and top 20 in xG% among forward lines with 200+ minutes, via moneypuck.com. They brought a lot offensively and enough defensively to nearly carry us to the postseason. The Pens' greatest strength didn't change much, and didn't get worse at all.

If Jarry stays healthy, he's a talented enough goaltender take us to the postseason. Between the start of the '22-'23 season and January 31st, Jarry had an 8.25 GSAx (T-18th), 13.3 GSAA (8th), and .921 SV% (7th). If he stayed healthy, we probably would've made it to the postseason. Even still, the addition of Nedeljkovic provides some insurance in case Jarry misses time again.

The bottom 6 additions do leave something to be desired, but they're still better than what we had last year. I mentioned how poor the 3rd line was already. Dubas brought in a lot of depth guys to slot into the bottom 6 and AHL, so at the least we're going to have versatility. Assuming we move Granlund to get back under the cap and Carter is scratched more often than not, that's addition by subtraction IMO. Still leaves Eller, Acciari, O'Connor, Nylander, Nieto, Johnsson, Hinnestroza, and Zohorna who all have decent shots to play bottom 6 time. Poulin and Puustinen have the opportunity to play their way into the conversation as well.
At worst, this is equivalent to last year. But I don't think that "worst" is the most likely.

The only scenario I can see this team not being better than last year, as it stands, is if our age starts catching up to us and Sid, Geno, and/or Letang take some steps back. And I'll believe that when I see it.

Apparently Karlsson prefers the Pens as well

Don't have to apologize, it's your opinion lol.

- I'm assuming the line you mentioned is going to be the 4th line. 3rd line as it stands is Carter Granlund and Nylander. I really do believe that is worse than Kapanen Carter McGinn. Kapanen at least showed some spurts and brought some speed.
- Graves is better but we still don't have much mobility on the blue line. Letang is really the only one who can bring offense.
- Huge if for Jarry staying healthy. I am fine with his contract as he was the best goalie available, but it's a huge huge gamble. He hasn't had one season yet where he's stayed healthy and been consistent. When he's good, he's really good. If he can play like that majority of the time then that's a W for us.
- The top 6 was great last year but Crosby and Malkin played all 82 games. Imagine if either missed any time last year or we had an injury to the top 6. They completely carried the team in offense. As the core get's older were once again putting them in a position to have to carry the team. I mean where else in the lineup is there the potential for offense? I'm fine with a shut down 4th line assuming that we have a third line that can generate offense. But we don't.
- A lot of things have to go right to even be the same as last year. Majority of our top 6 has to remain healthy. Jarry has to remain healthy and play well. None of the core can decline.
- I would argue the 4th line is better and the D is slightly improved. Nothing that moved the needle though. Combine our lack of significant change, with the team being a year older, plus how much the east improved and I don't see this lineup getting close to playoffs.
- Last thing, this is assuming we don't get Karlsson. If we do that's an absolute game changer. Helps our transition game, helps take pressure off the core, makes up for lack of bottom 6 scoring, Would change everything and I think Dubas knows that.

I was more apologizing for the giant walls of text that I have a habit of making.

I'm not considering the 3rd line as it stands, because it won't. Carter and Granlund can't stay on the 3rd line. Both of them lost the 3C position by season's end to Ryan Poehling, and I think Eller and Acciari are both better unless Poehls takes a step forward in Philly. Someone has to be moved to get under the salary cap and Granny makes the most sense IMO. DOC's arbitration gives Dubas another buyout window if a trade doesn't materialize. Carter's NMC makes him immovable but I think he'd be either 13th/14th forward or 4RW if he has a consistent lineup spot.

Not so sure I entirely agree with the concerns about the defense. Letang played at a 52 point pace, Petry was .5ppg. Although his point production wasn't anything to scoff at, but Pettersson's offensive impact analytically was stellar. It was in the 98th percentile via the Athletic's player cards, and his on-ice xG% of 56.1% is 21st among defensemen to play 400+ minutes; comparable to the likes of Dougie Hamilton, Devon Toews, and Mattias Ekholm. POJ and Smith are also both options to take a step forwards, especially offensively.
I don't think you're giving the Graves aquisition enough credit to how much it improves the defense. This season, Dumoulin was almost always a liability. I hate saying that considering how important he was to the team's success during the cup-winning seasons. Graves plays a similar shutdown role to prime Dumo: Play him next to Letang (or if we get him, EK65) to anchor and facilitate Tanger's offense or next to Petry to make a pairing that is big and physical. Furthermore, his presence allows Petry to have a lesser role: Petry was 2nd in TOI on the Pens and next season Graves and Pettersson would ideally both have more than him. We overworked Tanger and Petry at times last season and that burden can be more evenly distributed.

I don't particularly agree with the notion that we haven't made significant change. The bottom 6 was our biggest issue last season and it's going to look drastically different. I think it's better, but wouldn't mind another addition with offensive upside. Max Comtois or Tomas Tatar are both worth considering if we can afford it. The Pens are a deeper team across the board. IMO Graves and Nedeljkovic especially are low-risk, high-reward additions.
Karlsson would of course be a massive game changer and I'm fully on board if Dubas can make it work. I don't consider it necessary for us to succeed, but I don't see a downside. That's an instant boost to the team's offense by a vast margin and would certainly make for an entertaining on-ice product.