A Bit of Business

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: HockeyScotty

Team: 2023-24 Colorado Avalanche

Initial Creation Date: Jul. 19, 2023

Published: Jul. 19, 2023

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

With Josh Manson's injury history (and Cale Makar as well) we need to have a 3rd pair RD that is capable of playing up in the lineup for 30 games a season as well as complementing Bo Byram/Sam Girard in playing style in their regular pairings.

Looking around the league the only reasonably affordable options available in trade are: Andrew Peeke (Columbus), Jan Rutta (Pittsburgh), Dante Fabbro (Nashville).

The Free Agent market has dried up with Matt Dumba (too expensive), Tony DeAngelo (no defense), Ethan Bear (not healthy until December), and Cal Foote (needs work). I'm in favor of bringing in Foote but putting him in the AHL for a season or two to acclimate him to our style of play and bringing him up when Manson's contract is up as a physical presence (we have no other RHD of this type in our pipeline). While Sam Malinksi is an intriguing player we probably also need him to fill in due to injury as he brings a smooth offensive game; but I wouldn't want to bet the season on him as the 3rd pair; nor on Jack Johnson for the full seasons.

For the bottom 6, I'd like to target Zach Aston-Reese who would add to the grit and grind while actually bringing some "finish" (shooting percentage around 10%). Putting him on a line with Wood-Colton would definitely be a momentum changing line that would be fun to watch come playoffs.

Free Agent Signings

RFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Meyers, Ben		2	$950,000

UFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Aston-Reese, Zach		1	$925,000
Foote, Cal		2	$875,000

Trades

COL

Fabbro, Dante

NSH

MacDermid, Kurtis
2025 1st round pick (COL)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2024
2025
2026

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
21	$83,500,000	$83,312,500	$637,500	$0	$187,500

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Nichushkin, Valeri $6,125,000$6,125,000 RW, LW NMC UFA - 7	MacKinnon, Nathan $12,600,000$12,600,000 C NMC UFA - 8	Drouin, Jonathan $825,000$825,000 LW, RW UFA - 1
Lehkonen, Artturi $4,500,000$4,500,000 LW, RW NTC UFA - 4	Johansen, Ryan $4,000,000$4,000,000 C, RW UFA - 2	Rantanen, Mikko $9,250,000$9,250,000 RW, C M-NTC UFA - 2
Wood, Miles $2,500,000$2,500,000 LW UFA - 6	Colton, Ross $4,000,000$4,000,000 C, LW UFA - 4	Aston-Reese, Zach $925,000$925,000 LW, RW UFA - 1
Cogliano, Andrew $825,000$825,000 LW UFA - 1	Meyers, Ben $950,000$950,000 LW, C UFA - 1	O'Connor, Logan $1,050,000$1,050,000 RW, LW UFA - 2

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Toews, Devon $4,100,000$4,100,000 LD UFA - 1	Makar, Cale $9,000,000$9,000,000 RD UFA - 4	Georgiev, Alexandar $3,400,000$3,400,000 G UFA - 2
Girard, Samuel $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD/RD UFA - 4	Manson, Josh $4,500,000$4,500,000 RD NTC UFA - 3	Francouz, Pavel $2,000,000$2,000,000 G UFA - 1
Byram, Bowen $3,850,000$3,850,000 LD/RD RFA - 2	Fabbro, Dante $2,500,000$2,500,000 RD UFA - 1
Johnson, Jack $775,000$775,000 LD UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
		Landeskog, Gabriel $7,000,000$7,000,000 LW, C NMC UFA - 6

Jul. 19, 2023 at 10:14 a.m.

Jwilliams2k12

Go Preds

Joined: Jun. 2016

Posts: 1,202

Likes: 450

Preds accept.

TheFastAndTheFleuryous, AEcho and Goorts liked this.

Jul. 19, 2023 at 10:17 a.m.

Anus_McLeod

Joined: Apr. 2020

Posts: 3,584

Likes: 3,444

I'm not in favor of paying that much for a 6D. Bear is still a fine option, even if he can't play right away, and Foote is fine as well. Neither would result in losing a premium pock either.

Jokiharju is another potential option if exploring the trade market.

M96N29 and McRanteskog liked this.

Jul. 19, 2023 at 10:21 a.m.

TheFastAndTheFleuryous

GO KNIGHTS GO

Joined: Jul. 2021

Posts: 2,641

Likes: 2,272

Alexandre Carrier is another option from Nashville. He’d probably only cost a 2nd, and I think he’s of a similar caliber as Fabbro — albeit with a lower ceiling. Perhaps more importantly, he’s got the same cap hit.

AEcho and Goorts liked this.

Jul. 19, 2023 at 10:30 a.m.

HockeyScotty

Thread Starter

Joined: Jun. 2022

Posts: 1,361

Likes: 955

Quoting: Jwilliams2k12

Preds accept.

How low would they go on Fabbro for a draft pick do you think? I thought about a 2nd rounder but he was a mid-first pick himself and has been a top 4 defender in the league for a number of years now. He is still under team control as an RFA as well.

I can't believe he isn't one of the most sought after trade options given his contract, being right-handed, and a good two-way player.

Jul. 19, 2023 at 10:31 a.m.

HockeyScotty

Thread Starter

Joined: Jun. 2022

Posts: 1,361

Likes: 955

Quoting: TheFastAndTheFleuryous

I assumed since they extended him that he fits in their future plans while Fabbro doesn't (lots of trade speculation since the deadline).

AEcho and TheFastAndTheFleuryous liked this.

Jul. 19, 2023 at 10:32 a.m.

HockeyScotty

Thread Starter

Joined: Jun. 2022

Posts: 1,361

Likes: 955

Quoting: Anus_McLeod

Under this plan, I see Fabbro as the 2D when Manson's contract is up then we bring up Foote as the 3D.

Jul. 19, 2023 at 10:40 a.m.

AEcho

Joined: Feb. 2023

Posts: 826

Likes: 436

Quoting: HockeyScotty

There is some weird push from some NSH fans that say he isn't that good because he isn't the top D man to pair with Josi they thought he was, so some people might say a 2nd or 3rd, but realistically the lowest NSH would probably go, for a single pick, would be a high to mid 2nd round pick for Fabbro. Given where COL is likely to end up, a low first round pick is about right especially considering NSH needs to take on MacDermid to make the money work. As you said, he is a really solid 2-way D who is top 4 for most teams. NSH has just been blessed to be a D production powerhouse over the last 10-15 years and fans have grown accustom to it.

Goorts, HockeyScotty and Jwilliams2k12 liked this.

Jul. 19, 2023 at 10:54 a.m.

Goorts

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 155

Likes: 91

Quoting: HockeyScotty

I assumed since they extended him that he fits in their future plans while Fabbro doesn't (lots of trade speculation since the deadline).

Quoting: AEcho

This is pretty spot on for the value of Fabbro in my eyes. Being an RFA still provides some control to a team who acquires him. I would say Carrier's value would be 1 round less. Mid-Low 2nd round or high 3rd.

But as it goes for either player, once the season starts and they do show the upside that they supposedly have, the values will only go up.

Jwilliams2k12 liked this.

Jul. 19, 2023 at 10:58 a.m.

HockeyScotty

Thread Starter

Joined: Jun. 2022

Posts: 1,361

Likes: 955

Quoting: Goorts

With the extension they gave him, it is more of a 'Prove It' year than anything being he'll now be a UFA after this season. Both Fabbro and Carrier have trade speculation around them as those 2, along with Lauzon... one of them starts the season as a scratch.

This is pretty spot on for the value of Fabbro in my eyes. Being an RFA still provides some control to a team who acquires him. I would say Carrier's value would be 1 round less. Mid-Low 2nd round or high 3rd.

But as it goes for either player, once the season starts and they do show the upside that they supposedly have, the values will only go up.

Seems like a crowded blueline however with Barrie and Schenn; not enough ice time to go around. Certainly playoff teams will throw first rounders out at the deadline like candy at a parade; which is why I'd rather the Avs move now and not overspend.

Jul. 19, 2023 at 11:54 a.m.

#10

herzausstein

Joined: Jun. 2016

Posts: 3,338

Likes: 1,857

Quoting: Jwilliams2k12

Preds accept.

Personally id pass. A 1st in 2025 (2 drafts away) that is likely to be in the 20s. Is this really going to be better than what we have in Fabbro?

Jul. 19, 2023 at 12:45 p.m.

#11

Jwilliams2k12

Go Preds

Joined: Jun. 2016

Posts: 1,202

Likes: 450

Quoting: herzausstein

Personally id pass. A 1st in 2025 (2 drafts away) that is likely to be in the 20s. Is this really going to be better than what we have in Fabbro?

Considering we have Livingstone and Carrier and Lauzon all fighting with Fabbro for the last 2 D spots we can afford to move him for a 1st which can be packaged in with another deal because in 2025 Nashville would have 3 1sts.

Jul. 19, 2023 at 12:56 p.m.

#12

herzausstein

Joined: Jun. 2016

Posts: 3,338

Likes: 1,857

Quoting: Jwilliams2k12

Personally, id trade carrier due to injury history and age, lauzon because he can be replaced by stastney, and barrie can be replaced by Livingstone. Fabbro has the higher ceiling than any of the aforementioned players.

Jul. 19, 2023 at 12:57 p.m.

#13

HockeyScotty

Thread Starter

Joined: Jun. 2022

Posts: 1,361

Likes: 955

Quoting: herzausstein

Which is why he is interesting to other teams and more valuable

Jul. 19, 2023 at 6:35 p.m.

#14

McRanteskog

RETIRED

Joined: Apr. 2019

Posts: 4,846

Likes: 2,481

COL shouldn’t do this deal.
Trading a 1st round pick for the luxury of having another extra D option is bad asset management.

Should one of Toews-Makar or Byram-Manson get hurt, Girard moves up and J Johnson, MacDermid or Hunt slots in. I bet you forgot Hunt even existed for a moment there.

Any combination of 4 out of the following 5 D is a top end Top 4 regardless how you mix them up Toews/Makar/Byram/Girard/ Manson

Jul. 19, 2023 at 6:50 p.m.

#15

HockeyScotty

Thread Starter

Joined: Jun. 2022

Posts: 1,361

Likes: 955

Quoting: McRanteskog

Nope didn't forget Hunt just don't think much of his game and I wanted to create a way for us to keep Toews while moving on from Manson without hurting our top 4/5 in the process. Fabbro is good and cheap. We will have Manson at $4.5 million when he is 35 years old; it just won't age well the way he plays but if we move him now or next year there is a huge hole that is left behind.

Jul. 19, 2023 at 6:59 p.m.

#16

McRanteskog

RETIRED

Joined: Apr. 2019

Posts: 4,846

Likes: 2,481

Quoting: HockeyScotty

If after next season COL trades Manson and somehow resigns Toews (I am adamant that unless he takes a generous “hometown” discount, we can’t afford), the D for the 24-25 season becomes:

Toews-Makar
Byram-Girard
(Two of) Aamodt/Malinski/Ahcan/Behrens/Hanzel or UFA signing

Completely respectable and they maintain their 1st rd pick to continue stocking their very very very empty cupboards

Jul. 19, 2023 at 7:14 p.m.

#17

Cub19

Joined: Jun. 2023

Posts: 1,342

Likes: 406

Quoting: McRanteskog

I'd sign foote this season and then have malinski be on 3rd pair
Toews makar
Byram girard
Foote malinski/behrens

Jul. 19, 2023 at 7:17 p.m.

#18

Cub19

Joined: Jun. 2023

Posts: 1,342

Likes: 406

Quoting: HockeyScotty

I assumed since they extended him that he fits in their future plans while Fabbro doesn't (lots of trade speculation since the deadline).

I would trade 3rd and macdermid for fabbro. You shed some cap while opening a roster spot for the young guys.
However I hate trading an enforcer to a rival.

Sadly I don't think they resign toews unless for whatever reason landeskog can't play next year either then they can resign toews

Jul. 19, 2023 at 7:32 p.m.

#19

McRanteskog

RETIRED

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Posts: 4,846

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Quoting: Cub19

I'd sign foote this season and then have malinski be on 3rd pair
Toews makar
Byram girard
Foote malinski/behrens

I am of the mindset that every spare dollar should be spent on the best possible 3RW player.

Drouin-MacKinnon-Rantanen
Lehkonen-Johanson-Nichushkin
Wood-Colton-XXXXX
Cogliano-Meyers or AHLer-LOC
(Olofsson)

Toews-Makar
Byram-Manson
Johnson-Girard
(MacDermid, Hunt)

The 3RW is a much higher priority signing than adding to the #6-7D spot

Jul. 19, 2023 at 7:43 p.m.

#20

Cub19

Joined: Jun. 2023

Posts: 1,342

Likes: 406

Quoting: McRanteskog

They can easily bury macdermid and still sign foote and a 3rd line winger.

Jul. 19, 2023 at 8:17 p.m.

#21

HockeyScotty

Thread Starter

Joined: Jun. 2022

Posts: 1,361

Likes: 955

Quoting: McRanteskog

I disagree about putting Girard on his offhand. Yes he can "do it" but it was his worst performance for the Avs

Jul. 19, 2023 at 8:32 p.m.

#22

McRanteskog

RETIRED

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Posts: 4,846

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Quoting: HockeyScotty

I disagree about putting Girard on his offhand. Yes he can "do it" but it was his worst performance for the Avs

My guy, Girard has predominantly played his offhand his entire COL tenure. Where have you been lol

Jul. 20, 2023 at 9:13 a.m.

#23

HockeyScotty

Thread Starter

Joined: Jun. 2022

Posts: 1,361

Likes: 955

Quoting: McRanteskog

My guy, Girard has predominantly played his offhand his entire COL tenure. Where have you been lol

He has played there whenever injuries force the need to do so. Last year especially with Manson (and Makar) missing games he moved over; just like he did in the past. When fully healthy he does NOT normally play on the right side. My point was that he is BETTER on his natural LEFT side.

Jul. 20, 2023 at 9:14 a.m.

#24

McRanteskog

RETIRED

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Posts: 4,846

Likes: 2,481

Quoting: HockeyScotty

Provide me statistical evidence that demonstrates he’s noticeably better on his left than right

Jul. 20, 2023 at 9:47 a.m.

#25

HockeyScotty

Thread Starter

Joined: Jun. 2022

Posts: 1,361

Likes: 955

Quoting: McRanteskog

Provide me statistical evidence that demonstrates he’s noticeably better on his left than right

If there were any publicly available TOI and defensive pairings that show L/R alignment I would gladly post it (right or wrong); but I can't find any.

Best I could find was moneypuck.com/lines which just shows pairings but not actual positions by D.

2022-23 Girard played 39% of his time on a L/R pairing and 61% L/L (majority with Toews and Byram as partners). These were pretty much the playoff pairings as well due to Manson being out.
2021-22 Girard played 46% of his time on a L/R pairing and 54% L/L (Jack Johnson, Toews and Byram). However, for the short duration of the playoffs before he broke his sternum it was 88% in a L/R pair (Manson).

Toews and Jack Johnson have also played a good amount of time at RD so we can't say that 100% of the L/L pairings involving Girard have him as the RD.

The numbers are higher than I expected but the Avs lack of quality (and healthy) top 4 RD certainly affects this as well. Based on the normal pairings when fully healthy during the past 2 years and the start of the playoffs during the cup run:
Toews-Makar
Girard-Manson
Byram-EJ

I would say that it proves he is "best" on his left side.

I wish the tracking data would show their LD/RD positions as it does LW/RW so we could see actual analytics for their performance but I can't find any yet.

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Forums/Armchair-GM

A Bit of Business

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Free Agent Signings

Trades

COL

NSH

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