The Bean

Forums/Armchair-GM

Page 1 of 1

Created by: MontysPython

Team: 2023-24 Ottawa Senators

Initial Creation Date: Sep. 27, 2023

Published: Sep. 27, 2023

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

You've probably seen a ton of Pinto trades on here. Most if not all are ridiculed. So, why not rationalize it with player/trade comps? This is moneyball, and it's not saying this is realistic, nor does it apply for building on the future, but it is a cheap theory to fit a Shane Pinto in.

Enter Tuevo Terravainen
Trade-1 season:35 points in 78 games (0.449 p/gp)
Traded with Bryan Bickell(35yo winger at $4M (0.08 p/gp)
For a 2nd and 3rd.

Shane Pinto-22yo who just came off of a 35 point season at 0.427 p/gp)

Other under 23 players at <0.449(must have played over 30gp);
2022-23-
Lundell
Chinakhov
Ylonen
2021-22-
Kotkaniemi
Tomasino
2020-21
Vilardi

A note:Kailer Yamamoto fit this, yet was traded with Kostin for fc and then bought out. These stats don't account for everything.

Using Kotkaniemi's $4.82M and Vilardi's $3.44M
Pinto should be looking for around $4M. Otherwise, his trade value stands at around a late 1st or early 2nd plus.

Free Agent Signings

RFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Pinto, Shane		4	$4,000,000

Trades

OTT

Luukkonen, Ukko-Pekka
2025 4th round pick (MIN)

BUF

Forsberg, Anton
2024 4th round pick (TBL)

Additional Details:

idk abt this trade value and I'm not gonna try. point is, UPL is your target for replacing what Forsberg brings statistically.

OTT

Bayreuther, Gavin
2026 4th round pick (DAL)

DAL

statistically, Bayreuther is about as good as Brannstrom. He would cheaply in both cap and trade replace Erik. This is moneyball pretty much saving as many dollars as u can for cheap.

OTT

DAL

Brännström, Erik

Buyouts

Bobby Ryan: $1,833,333
Colin White: $875,000
Michael Del Zotto: $750,000

Retained Salary Transactions

Matt Murray: $1,562,500 (25%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2024
2025
2026

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
20	$83,500,000	$80,936,547	$0	$1,850,000	$2,563,453

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Tkachuk, Brady $8,205,714$8,205,714 LW UFA - 5	Stützle, Tim $8,350,000$8,350,000 C UFA - 8	Giroux, Claude $6,500,000$6,500,000 RW, C NMC UFA - 2
Joseph, Mathieu $2,950,000$2,950,000 LW, RW UFA - 3	Pinto, Shane $4,000,000$4,000,000 C RFA - 1	Tarasenko, Vladimir $2,500,000$2,500,000 RW NTC UFA - 1
Kubalik, Dominik $2,500,000$2,500,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Kastelic, Mark $835,000$835,000 C, RW RFA - 2	Batherson, Drake $4,975,000$4,975,000 RW, LW UFA - 4
Sokolov, Egor $775,000$775,000 LW RFA - 1	Kelly, Parker $762,500$762,500 LW RFA - 1	MacEwen, Zack $775,000$775,000 RW, C UFA - 3

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Chabot, Thomas $8,000,000$8,000,000 LD UFA - 5	Chychrun, Jakob $4,600,000$4,600,000 LD/RD M-NTC UFA - 2	Korpisalo, Joonas $4,000,000$4,000,000 G M-NTC UFA - 5
Sanderson, Jake $925,000$925,000 ($1,850,000$2M) LD UFA - 1	Zub, Artem $4,600,000$4,600,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 4	Luukkonen, Ukko-Pekka $837,500$837,500 G RFA - 1
Bayreuther, Gavin $775,000$775,000 LD/RD UFA - 1	Hamonic, Travis $1,100,000$1,100,000 RD NMC UFA - 2

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
	Norris, Joshua $7,950,000$7,950,000 C UFA - 7

Sep. 27, 2023 at 9:54 a.m.

wojme

Joined: Jun. 2017

Posts: 7,693

Likes: 5,910

I don't know why this trade keeps being posted but the Sabres have no reason to make it.

BsInOttawa liked this.

Sep. 27, 2023 at 10:05 a.m.

Not_Not_Batman

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 511

Likes: 183

If we move UPL, it's not going to be to bring in another goalie. They already have 3 "NHL" goaltenders.

Sep. 27, 2023 at 10:38 a.m.

swinny

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 4,805

Likes: 2,012

Very interesting comparable ls to Pinto.

Not sure Iike Kotkaniemi as a comparable, with it being his 3rd contract, and for the max 8 years. Yes, the Canes overpaid for a year with the offersheet, which I think impacted this deal. It is a weird one.

The rest kinds fit in their own way.

Now, where I think Pinto truly slides into the $2.5 million range despite the comparables here is

1. This is no doubt a bridge deal.... and maybe just a 1 year at that.

2. Came out flying in the first half last year, the second half completely fell off creating concerns over consistent play over an 82 games season.

3. Given he saw time as 2C last year (which I think did pad.some numbers), can he repeat that with what maybe fewer minutes this year?

Now, as you stated, this is a very simplified comparison to gauge his contract, but what a great way to start a meaningful discussion!

I love these exercises!!!

MontysPython liked this.

Sep. 27, 2023 at 11:28 a.m.

Moss_Bucket

See you space cowboy

Joined: May 2023

Posts: 2,077

Likes: 1,155

I could see Dallas considering this.

Sep. 27, 2023 at 12:05 p.m.

MontysPython

Thread Starter

Player Model Maker

Joined: Aug. 2022

Posts: 1,117

Likes: 510

Quoting: wojme

I don't know why this trade keeps being posted but the Sabres have no reason to make it.

Quoting: Not_Not_Batman

If we move UPL, it's not going to be to bring in another goalie. They already have 3 "NHL" goaltenders.

READ THE DESCRIPTION! ITS NOT A MOCK TRADE, ITS IDENTIFYING TARGETS FOR REPLACING 2 PLAYERS TO MAKE CAP ROOM FOR A CONTRACT PINTO DESERVES!
it's moneyball, and in this fake scenario (if it happens which is very unlikely) Forsberg beats out Comrie who can be sent down. Forsberg had much better numbers on a worse team. He brings the experience for Levi, and statistically it'd still be a win for Buffalo.

Sep. 27, 2023 at 12:08 p.m.

MontysPython

Thread Starter

Player Model Maker

Joined: Aug. 2022

Posts: 1,117

Likes: 510

Quoting: swinny

my thinking is that a bridge deal would've been made sooner. Still have no rumors though, and the trade rumors are likely just to help along the contract negotiations. Interesting scenario, especially when guys like Zegras are also still unsigned. Hopefully it's not a trend of players holding out a very long time.

Sep. 27, 2023 at 12:09 p.m.

wojme

Joined: Jun. 2017

Posts: 7,693

Likes: 5,910

Quoting: MontysPython

UPL is much younger, has higher upside, and forsberg had marginally better numbers. Everyone needs to stop with the mentor stuff until they bring up an actual vet that played very well and dealt with the same scenario. Until then, it just means some mid player that's old.

Sep. 27, 2023 at 2:05 p.m.

Xspyrit

Joined: Jul. 2016

Posts: 10,506

Likes: 3,721

1- No. Sens won't trade Forsberg. Korpisalo specifically signed in Ottawa because Forsberg was there

Also Forsberg is QUITE better

2. lol NO. Brannstrom >>> Bayreuther

And all that stuff n the OP... Pinto's value has barely anything to do with the 20 goals or 35 pts from his rookie season... it's his projectability.

Sep. 27, 2023 at 8:41 p.m.

swinny

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 4,805

Likes: 2,012

Quoting: MontysPython

Hard to say anything.

For all we know the deal.is done pending a trade. Or for all we know they are light years apart.

Eerily quiet this is.

MontysPython liked this.

Page 1 of 1

DISPLAY SETTING

BETTING ODDS

LOCALE

ARCHIVE

CBA

CALCULATORS

FANTASY HOCKEY TOOLS

TOOLS

PLAYERS

WESTERN CONFERENCE

EASTERN CONFERENCE

INTERACTIVE FEATURES

Forums/Armchair-GM

The Bean

Description

Free Agent Signings

Trades

OTT

BUF

OTT

DAL

OTT

DAL

Buyouts

Retained Salary Transactions

Embed Code

Text-Embed

Question:

Options: