“EDM DeCLinEs is basically covered”

Yet they’re in win now mode and this does 0 for that and even if they were giving up now and shipping out Leon. NJ would pretty much have to trade Luke Hughes + Nemec + draft picks. Leon is better than everyone on NJ.

Thats a very optimistic return for a 32 year old rental in Toffoli.

NYR and Boston can beat that offer for Drai - Palat has close to negative value due to age/production/contract.

You clearly missed the part of the post that entails the Oilers rebuilding but we’ll let it slide buddy - remember to read!

Karlsson did not get Nemec/ Hughes just because he was better than eveyone in SJS for Ottawa. Karlsson was in a similar atmosphere as Leon and McDavid when he was traded - this clears Karlssons return and if Leon and McDavid want out (which is what entails a rebuild) - no team is offering 1 already top 4 LD plus another potential top 4 RD. Both who are already potentially 6-8m dollar guys.

You’re clearly undervaluing Seamus Casey and Holtz which is fine but just say so. Karlsson return for Ottawa is cleared easily here, and one could argue Leon would follow a very similar blueprint for a trade.

We’ve seen far worse deals - Toffoli is a ppg and would be a mil for a cup contender. The leagues been what are you doing for me now more then ever.

The only prospect Boston has is Lysell.
Seamus Casey is not a random prospect and Holtz is again, not a random prospect. I don’t see Boston topping since they’d have to empty the clip more than I’ve done here for NJD.

NYR I say you’re right, can see beating almost any teams offer but idk if they would really trade Laffy and Kakko both (I presume that’s what we’re alluding to plus including Braden Schneider).

Lysell is far from the only prospect Boston has - "expert" opinions on the Bruins prospect pool have severely underrated many of Boston's players. Poitras, Lohrei, and Beecher are very good prospects with bright futures.

I don't think EDM will have a whole lot of interest in the package you put together - two solid prospects and multiple late first round picks. IMO they will ask for one or two roster players in addition - a more realistic/compelling package for NJD to get Drai would be Mercer, Marino, Holtz, 2024 1st, and 2025 1st.

I considered Mercer but I felt more firsts was better than Mercer for a rebuilding team who’s gonna be selling for 1-2 more years. We can switch out Palat for Haula (I still made the cap work when I tried it) - but I don’t see Marino being moved unless Nemec takes his role. Which isnt happening this year.

For Boston the only prospect there that has top 6 potential is Lysell. Beecher is not going to be a 1C or 2C; Lysell could be a 1W or 2W. Doesn’t mean Beecher can’t be a NHLer or have a career - lol guys still obviously very good at hockey he’s in the AHL/ NHL. But calling Beecher a top prospect would be like me calling Ozzy Wiesblatt a top prospect. I mean this all respectfully.

I’d rather picks then Beecher and Lohrei if I’m rebuilding and it isn’t close. Casey is a league wide top RD prospect and I think you’re missing that. Not many teams have a better RD in their pool. Holtz was coveted in the Meier talks and supposedly was not on the table, he helped NJD move Shakir since they have Hughes.

Agree on Lohrei, he definitely has 2nd pair potential. Beecher is a solid bet for a 3rd line role, maybe 4th. Is Poitras still a prospect? He's going to play the full season likely and while he started hot, he has slowed down. Still Poitras is the best prospect until he plays 25 games, he is a regular then.

Merkulov I feel is underrated. But he's 23 and still not in the bigs.

EDM is going to want the certainty in Mercer than late first rounders - he is 22 and has solid production in the NHL. He will fit into their long term plans of a rebuild.

Poitras doesn't have top 6 potential? Many people had Poitras and Lohrei overtake Lysell in the organization's prospect pipeline. Poitras, Lysell, and Lohrei are all top prospects. Lohrei is already consistently producing offensively - he just needs some NHL seasoning to get better on the defensive side of the puck.

I am not saying Beecher is a top prospect, but I am saying he has great physical traits and has been a bright spot in our bottom six this year. I think he develops to be a very good 3C in this league who can play in all situations.

So can Toronto, Colorado, Dallas etc...

For example, Marner+2 1sts beats that offer pretty easily

Same with Rant+1st+b Prospect

Or Pasta+1st/Poitras+2 1sts + Lysell

Hintz+2 1sts

etc.

Wait a minute! Did you say Edmonton was in "win mode" now? If that's what you meant then I would say you are overly optimistic about the Oilers. Two superstars doesn't equal anything but personal awards.

I would still count Poitras as a prospect since he is only 19 years old. He has proven to be a better skater than he was credited for and has great hands, vision, and hockey IQ. He has slowed down, but I think he will improve over time as he adds some size/adjusts to the pro game.

Definitely agree on Merkulov - he has consistently produced at the AHL-level but is blocked/waiting for an NHL opportunity. I would be surprised if he is not in the NHL next season.

Hey all I’m saying is - is Boston going to offer

Portias
Lysell
3 firsts?

Because I’d argue Casey = or greater than Lysell (RD > W) and Holtz is probably = or slightly below Portias if people are going to value is hot start highly. Adding Beecher doesn’t change much. Sure you can add Lohrei but then we’re talking

3 firsts plus 3 prospects/ nhl players - is Boston in that business? Idk.

If you're giving the scenario where EDM is going into a full rebuild than the offer for Drai would likely start at one of, not both, Luke Hughes or Nemec.
Palat is a dump so either remove him or pay to move him.
If EDM is going to move Drai I don't see why we wouldn't try to get more for him by retaining his cap.

So let's say you're more likely to move Nemec as Hughes is looking great in the lineup already, trades probably looking like:
Drai (50% retention) + throw away minor players to equal out the contracts a bit.
For
Nemec, Holtz, Mercer (main package) and McLeod, Smith (to make cap work) + some firsts

Palat is taking that Olive Garden deal. Have you see the portions?

He gonna get "Pafat"


[I'll see myself out]

Can anyone name one trade in the history of NHL that included two top-10 prospects....



...not to mention multiple 1st round picks?

Too much of this thread has considered Casey a minor player/ whatever prospect that I just threw in to add more meat to the bones of the trade.

Kinda knew it wasn’t worth continuing after seeing that.

"for Drai would likely start at one of, not both, Luke Hughes or Nemec." come on man... it's right there lol



I said "some" to allude to an amount I wasn't certain of, could be none, one or a ton.

Casey is a good prospect but EDM already has Bouch and Akey who do the same thing, I dont think we want another good offensive dman who can't defend on our RH side.

Everyone’s ignored my valid points.

Tell me how Leon being traded is not comparable to Karlssons trade?

Karlsson did return the value this post includes.

Norris = Holtz (not a single soul thought Norris was a 40g scorer at the time of his trade)

Casey easily clears Demelo and Tierney and is a RD prospect

Three firsts > 1st and 2 2nds (we literally cannot include Stutzles value in this trade comparison - it would be ignorant and wrong).

Akey is currently in the OHL and not doing anything special (this isn’t a criticism) - Casey is in the NCAA. Better league, better competition, better translation/ projection to the NHL/ Pros. I take Casey personally.

Secondly what does Bouchard have to do with this?

Wouldn’t you rather

Bouchard
Casey (currently Ceci)
Placeholder RD/ Akey let’s just say

As a future then just thinking “ah we don’t need more good RD prospects”.. seems kinda silly to even mention Bouchard.

A better example for your argument would be SJS and trading for Broberg for example (who many think would be in on a Campbell deal with SJS for some reason).
On LD SJS has young LD in:
Ferraro
Thrun
Shakir
Okhotiok
Cagoni
— above are investments are likely not touched/ moved
Cicek
Knyzhov
Pulli

SJS would mishandle Broberg. But I don’t look at EDM RD and go, “wow they really don’t need any more”. I don’t look at their RD like the above LD example and think EDM would mishandle Casey.

Many teams have 1-3 very good offensive d man.
Example would be Avs their cup winning team having 1-3 offence first D men.

Karlsson was a top 5 Dman with 1 season left, Drai is a top 5 player with 2 (in your scenario), the extra season would have a considerable amount more value.
Drai is also a Center which as we know is a position worth more than defense, again adding value to Drai's side.

I get the basis of your trade and tbh it's always impossible to predict trades of players this value but from EDMs perspective we'd want more (again impossible to judge if we actually will).



You missed my point, EDM's current struggle is we don't have good defensive dmen which traps us in our end/hurts us on fast breaks, currently in our system we have 2 RHD that embody this issue: Bouch and Akey.
Those 2 are both young and would likely still be here if we rebuilt, depending on length of time to rebuild, trading to get another player like that just puts us back into the issue we have right now.
This wasn't at all intended to knock Casey, but look at EDM's defensive stats, we don't need more dmen who can't defend lol.

There is almost an objective argument that RD is the most coveted position in the league - and subjectively I can’t say C > RD or RD > C - it’s more apt to say C, RD, G are the most valuable positions and theyre interchangeable in ranking. I don’t think you can say Leon being a C makes him valuable than Makar because he’s a RD (not talking about the direct value of Makars historical performance).

Leon being a C and Karlsson being a RD mean nothing it’s a wash. They’re both top 1-5 players in the league at the time of their respective trades.

Many people around the league and inside the league have stated a 1RD is more valuable than any position.


I added/ edited more to my comment about Casey/ Akey/ RD and gave an example incase that clarifies my statement.

I don’t see many teams not taking Casey because they already have 1 good offence RD. I argue Akey means nothing to the equation of acquiring Casey.

People like to play with these huge returns (multiple high-end prospects, multiple 1sts, etc)....and in reality, those trades very rarely happen.

Just throwing some examples around below of trades that were fairly massive at the time

-- Jack Eichel 2021 (Tuch was good young player, Krebs was on top-25 bubble, 1st attached)
-- Martin St Louis 2014 (Callahan, two 1sts)
-- Rick Nash 2012 (both Erixon and Anisimov were close to top-25 guys, had one 1st included and Dubinsky was solid)
-- Chris Pronger 2006 (Smid, Lupul were on top-20 bubble in prior years, two 1sts were attached)
-- Jaromir Jagr 2001 (two top-25 prospects with Beach, Sivek...But no 1sts)
-- Rob Blake 2001 (Deadmarsh, Miller, Aulin, two 1sts)
-- Chris Chelios 1999 (Anders Eriksson had been top-10, two 1sts included)
-- Mikael Renberg 1997 (Four 1sts)
-- Teemu Selanne 1996 (two recent top-10 prospects in Kilger and Tverdovsky, but no 1sts)
-- Eric Lindros 1992 (Forsberg, Ricci, etc two 1sts)
-- Wayne Gretzky 1988 (Carson, Gelinas, three 1sts)

The return for Leon would be big...but likely one veteran player, one prospect, one 1st rounder...(and maybe other small minor pieces)....is the likely recipe

Sorry...wasn't meant to be directed at your comment alone.
Was making a more general point/question to group as a whole.

The argument for most valuable position is subjective and not objective I agree, but consensus seems to favour C as the most valuable (then RHD imo) this with the additional season on Drai's contract is why the Karlsson trade to me isn't an exact match.

I do understand your argument, Casey is of value and I don't mean to come across like I don't see him as a great potential puck moving/PP QB dman, I am more so saying that EDM's issues the last 3-4 seasons have been that we didn't construct a team that can defend and if we do rebuild we would value defense more (I would hope, with our current management I doubt it though lol).

Adding Casey isn't a negative, but may start us down that same path where we don't save room for defensive players.
Team's can have more than one OFD, but most successful teams utilize an elite TWD mixed with one or two OFD and DFD (to use the generic labeling).

Taking the AVS example, Girard would be the only OFD as both Makar and Toews are great offensively they are equally as good defensively.
Most cup favourite teams are the same way, Tampa (Hedman and Serg are Elite TWD), Bruins (Mac is an Elite TWD surrounded by DFD), NYR (Gusta is an OFD surrounded by DFD and an Elite TWD in Fox).

Having an outlook for our RH side being Bouch - Casey - Akey (all OFD who dont defend well) isn't setting us up to be a cup team.