Certainly went for the right flavor of prospects with Lenni and Kevin. Big body bruising defensive D and big body net crashing RW. I applaud you on your selection.

It's a compelling offer, I just don't know that it's one Anaheim can take without basically throwing the season in the bin (likely happens, but not ready to toss the towel in yet)

Let me see what this summers defensive UFA class is, or maybe the Canes will just give us Orlov to get out from under that contract.

* Bahl is ‘bruising fluid’.
(He bruises when he wants)

The Ducklings are ready (well some of are).

That's a crazy return for Fowler and especially so at this point in time.
From what I can tell he's been one of the weaker performing Ducks players so far, coupled with him being awful last season and at the wrong side of 30 this idea looks nothing short of a disaster to me.
It'd be almost as bad as trading for John Gibson lol.

Bahl is most likely the outright better defender than Fowler at this point in time.

Fowler averages 25+ minutes a night, Bahl is struggling with 2nd pairing minutes. Fowler is still the better defender, and unlike Bahl, he's not an absolute black hole on offense. He's an all situations minute muncher with a remarkable ability to stay healthy as a defenseman.

He's one of our strongest performers year in and year out in playing the toughest minutes, and for the last couple of years, having to cover for rookie defensive partners making mistakes.

So who's ass are you pulling your opinion out of?

A defenceman befitting of commanding OP's suggested return should be capable of not getting outshot, outchanced and outscored to the degree that Fowler is and has been over the last year and a half regardless of who he's paired with.
I'm sorry that all your favorite players aren't what they used to and aren't nearly as good as you seem to think they are but if you think that OP's suggested return wouldn't amount to the biggest fleecing of the calendar year then you're the one who needs to check what ass you might be pulling your opinions from, sir.

He is in the wrong side of 30…but not too worried about his defense. As long as he fits in with others, he will be fine (and better than Bahl). We could use a rock-steady veteran in there.

Also - when looking at player cards, league-wide data, etc - it has always been my experience that, on teams that are struggling, weaker, thinner, developing…the defensive players and goalies will always appear worse…and the offensive players will always appear better.

Think Andy Greene, a little less shot-blocking, a little more offense.

Hampus Lindholm was getting out-chanced, out-shot, out-scored. Fowler had higher CF%rel. Move Lindholm into Bruins lineup…he is now their leader in CF%rel.

I'm not even a particular fan of Fowler, but you're talking about a bottom pair defenseman, a prospect who likely never makes the roster in NJ if he ever makes the show, and a pick that should be in the 20s for a more than serviceable top 4 defenseman on a reasonable contract over the next three years.

If you want someone shorter term and cheaper to acquire go see if Carolina regrets the Orlov signing.

Hämeenaho put up 21 pts in Liiga in his age-17 season…has 11 goals in 24 games currently in his age-18 season (and 1.50 ppg in international play). Not the fastest guy, but savvy winger. And a legit sniper prospect.

Betting on Lindholm at the 2022 TDL is very different from trading for Fowler in the present day however.
Lindholm is (and was) on a different level to Fowler and putting up possession metrics below 50% for 3 quarters of a season doesn't change that, nor does it in anyway speak to throwing all that at Fowler being a good idea whatsoever.
Maybe Fowler gets some of his magic back if traded to contender, for a time, but in the end that 6.5m is gonna be a real anchor on Fitzy's cap sheet for the duration of his deal.
Why bother paying so much for all that risk when Bahl is, in my opinion, the better player between the two at present (and most definitely will be in 12 months from now)??

I'm not sure what you're on about here. Hämeenaho is having a great D+1 year in Liiga and at this point in time I'd be very surprised if he didn't make the Devils lineup on an ELC within the next 2 years. He's a homerun of a 2nd rd draft pick and shouldn't be tossed into some ill-advised trade for Fowler and his contract...
Bahl is actually been playing 2nd pair a lot so far this season and while his level of play isn't as good as it was last year, it doesn't compare to how difficult a time Fowler has been having with the Ducks over the last 1.5 years. At best it's a lateral move in the short-term on player ability alone but factoring age and cap hit in this is a straight up downgrade for the Devils and their blueline.
Why should the Devils tack a 1st on to all that and forego the opportunity to restock a diminishing pool of prospects when superior players like Hanifin or Tanev could be had for less? (or why even trade for a defenceman in the first place)

It makes no sense whatsoever to pursue Fowler and certainly not for this ridiculous amount of value...

Why is Fowler a reasonable contract at 6.5, but orlov, who from everything I've seen (and the analytics back it up) has been a better player pretty consistently over the last half decade, a bad one at 7.75?

Servicable top 4 according to you. His contract is paying him like a solid top pairing LD.

giving up all those assets at 6.5x3. I see a 1st (6 mill), 2nd (3 mill), and solid 3rd pairing roster player with 2 years at 1 mill and then rfa control (3 mill) of surplus value there.

So in order to make that worth it with no retention, that would need to make Fowler worth approximately 10.5 mill AAV

If your opinion is that Bahl to Fowler is a lateral move then your opinion is at best uninformed. Advanced stats do not support your opinion, neither does the eye test.

The more advanced metrics heavily favoured lindholm. MUCH younger as well

Bahl--> Fowler almost certainly isn't a 5.5 mill AAV more+1st+2nd round prospect who's top 5 in goals as an 18 year old in LIIGA.

Do you really think Bahl is superior to Fowler? Bahl has his moments, but I haven’t seen that level of play from him…especially with the puck on/near his stick.

Fowler at $6.5m x 2 years isn’t a back-breaker, it’s actually a very decent AAV…and fitting term for us as young guys will be getting raises then.

If you see guys like Hedman, Hanifin, Lindholm, Fowler, etc as no good…which dman would you prefer to go after? Who do you see as a good dman?

6.5 is iffy alone:
-guarantees hamilton out until playoffs this year
-assuming 3 sub 1 mill scratches that leaves 13 mill to replace/resign,
Mercer,Mcleod,Schmid,Toffoli next year
-It's still 6.5 and at this point probably an UGLY contract the last year when Luke and Holtz require probably around 10 mill in raises.

Let alone giving up that much in assets.

You could probably pay less for Hanifin retained, and get a better, younger, cheaper player.

on a 2x7.75 similar to orlov, you're still paying just 18 on 3 years of prime hanifin compared to 19.5 on 3 years of past prime fowler

Which stats?

They are 25 months apart…trade probably would occur at a time when Fowler will have been 4 years the senior. But with 2.5 years term…not like we have him for a long decline.

Basically every metric except for penalty differential.

Hanifin is not looking for $6m x 3 years (he had a $50m extension worked out in Calgary before stepping back). So he is probably getting around $7m x 7 or $6.5m x 8.

Hanifin is still my preference for this year…but it could mean we move a Siegenthaler or Marino in a couple of years if Luke and Nemec get max deals off their ELCs.

You don't need hanifin on a 6x3. You could give him 8x2 and with him 50% retained this year you still get him cheaper over the next 3 years than you would fowler unretained.

I was just looking via Natural Stat Trick.

CF% F 51, L 49
GF% F 52, L 46
XGF% F 49 L 48
HDCF% F 49 L 48

CF%rel F +4.5, L +0.5
GF%rel F +11, L +2
XGF%rel F +3 L -1
HDCF%rel F +2 L -4

Pt/60 F 0.92 L 0.74
Net Tk/60 F +0.5 L +0.8
TOI/gp F 23:26 L 22:24

Honestly, which stats?

Hanifin isn’t signing 2-years though. He is probably getting Weegar/Severson/Lindholm like deal (max term in mid $6m’s). So options are

Hanifin $4.9m x 1
Hanifin $4.9m x 1….plus $6.5m x 8
Fowler $6.5m x 3

Are you looking at even strength/5v5?

Fowler has been at 42.51 this year and 40.97 last year per evolving hockey. around 42 both years on moneypuck.

Lindholm was at 46 before being traded and 52 the year before that.

And again the age is a big factor.

Hanifin's 8 year takes him till he's 34.
Same as Fowler's 3 year.

The difference is hanifins 32,33,34 would be in a much higher cap than fowlers
And we also get the entire prime of hanifin

I am more concerned about our young 1a and 1b dmen

+ Luke gets deal in 2025
- Fowler comes off books in 2026
+ Nemec gets deal in 2026 or 2027
- Marino comes off books in 2027
- Siegs and Hamilton off books 2028