How To Not Make Friends

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Quoting: pretzelcoatl

But speculatively Nemec's value is among the highest of all prospects? The small amount of risk does not make him worth less than a 1.5 year rental

I totally agree. His speculative value (his potential) is much higher than Petterson. But, I factored in risk vs a sure thing along with the optics for the Pens and the division rivalry. It is an overpay, 100%. But, IMO that's what it would take to get Petterson.

Dec. 26, 2023 at 5:17 p.m.

#52

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Quoting: Victor24

What he would get as a UFA is all based on potential. He has played 11 games and looks ok.

It's indicative of his value. If you don't believe in trading for prospects that's okay to say.

You can have Toffoli 1 for 1 if you like

Dec. 26, 2023 at 5:18 p.m.

#53

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Quoting: dgibb10

The risk is Nemec is fully buriable and has no negative value.

The risk on Pettersson is he falls off/gets hurt and has significant negative value

The risk of Nemec is that he doesn't pan out and you kept a devaluing asset instead of trading it for another asset that could win you a cup or 2.

Dec. 26, 2023 at 5:18 p.m.

#54

n.1 Topias Vilen fan

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Quoting: Victor24

The Devils would never pay that price. You can't just say that it would take an overpay if the other team wouldn't make said overpay

Dec. 26, 2023 at 5:19 p.m.

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Quoting: Victor24

The risk of Nemec is that he doesn't pan out and you kept a devaluing asset instead of trading it for another asset that could win you a cup or 2.

The risk of pettersson is you keep him and miss the playoffs the next 2 years and he walks for nothing as a UFA

Nemec has 7 years of control

Dec. 26, 2023 at 5:19 p.m.

#56

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Quoting: dgibb10

It's indicative of his value. If you don't believe in trading for prospects that's okay to say.

You can have Toffoli 1 for 1 if you like

I agree in trading prospects. But they have less value. That isn't hard to follow. Nemec might be the next Makar. He might be the next Reinhart. I can't say. Neither can you.

Dec. 26, 2023 at 5:20 p.m.

#57

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Quoting: pretzelcoatl

The Devils would never pay that price. You can't just say that it would take an overpay if the other team wouldn't make said overpay

I said in my description that it's an overpay and that these teams might not be interested. But this is the cost.

Dec. 26, 2023 at 5:20 p.m.

#58

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Quoting: Victor24

The risk of Nemec is that he doesn't pan out and you kept a devaluing asset instead of trading it for another asset that could win you a cup or 2.

You're not factoring in team control. Nemec is team property for years to come, MP is UFA in 1.5. That combined with Nemec's potential and NHL showing makes him by far the more valuable trade asset

Dec. 26, 2023 at 5:21 p.m.

#59

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Quoting: Victor24

Oh sorry. I didn't give you the stats just the rankings. My bad (sincerely)

His number put him in the middle of the pack in the NHL in most stats. I am impressed by his speed and energy but it is too early to say if he will be great, good or average (imo).

Would you like the stats?

He is a 19 year old NHL defenseman who is average at worse. That makes him one of the most valuable assets in the league.

Dec. 26, 2023 at 5:21 p.m.

#60

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Quoting: dgibb10

The risk of pettersson is you keep him and miss the playoffs the next 2 years and he walks for nothing as a UFA

Nemec has 7 years of control

Sure. 7 years of Makar, 7 years of Reinhard, 7 years of Ty Smith? I don't know. That's the risk.

Dec. 26, 2023 at 5:21 p.m.

#61

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Quoting: Victor24

I agree in trading prospects. But they have less value. That isn't hard to follow. Nemec might be the next Makar. He might be the next Reinhart. I can't say. Neither can you.

Nemec is already playing quality NHL hockey that's the thing.

Nemec's low end where he ends up as a high quality bottom pair Dman still provides more surplus value than pettersson simply because of 3 years at ELC+4 years of RFA vs 2 years at 4 mill

Dec. 26, 2023 at 5:22 p.m.

#62

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Quoting: Victor24

Sure. 7 years of Makar, 7 years of Reinhard, 7 years of Ty Smith? I don't know. That's the risk.

7 years of a bottom pair dman for dirt cheap cap wise still has significant value.

Dec. 26, 2023 at 5:23 p.m.

#63

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Quoting: pretzelcoatl

You're not factoring in team control. Nemec is team property for years to come, MP is UFA in 1.5. That combined with Nemec's potential and NHL showing makes him by far the more valuable trade asset

It does, which is why this is an overpay. But he is not Makar. He might be someday but he isn't today. Trading for an established elite player has a cost. IMO, this is it. Maybe the Devils cry in 3 years when Petterosn moves on and Nemec is anchoring the Pens blue line? Maybe the laugh when they win 2 cups and Nemec falls off / gets hurt?

That is the risk. On both sides.

Dec. 26, 2023 at 5:23 p.m.

#64

Dickie_Dunn

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Love the Pittsburgh fans. All their own players are worth two firsts. Laughable.

Dec. 26, 2023 at 5:26 p.m.

#65

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Quoting: pretzelcoatl

He is a 19 year old NHL defenseman who is average at worse. That makes him one of the most valuable assets in the league.

Quoting: dgibb10

7 years of a bottom pair dman for dirt cheap cap wise still has significant value.

Guys. I think we're at an impass. You think he is currently at his floor and his ceiling is (lets say) Makar. What if this is his ceiling? What if, though play or injury, he stays as good as he is right now.

Is he worth more than a top pair shutdown defenseman? Honest question.

Dec. 26, 2023 at 5:26 p.m.

#66

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Quoting: Victor24

Nemec simply isn't the risk you claim. He's playing at a similar level to Pettersson right now.

Dec. 26, 2023 at 5:26 p.m.

#67

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Quoting: Dickie_Dunn

Love the Pittsburgh fans. All their own players are worth two firsts. Laughable.

No, just the elite ones.

Dec. 26, 2023 at 5:26 p.m.

#68

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Quoting: dgibb10

Nemec simply isn't the risk you claim. He's playing at a similar level to Pettersson right now.

He isn't. I can give you data to back that up if you'd like.

Dec. 26, 2023 at 5:29 p.m.

#69

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Quoting: Victor24

If this is his ceiling yes he's worth more than pettersson.

Like I said, I currently value him at about 6 mill.

The athletic player value charts has him at 5.5 and Pettersson at 6.1 mill.

nemec costs 900k, pettersson costs 4 mill

Dec. 26, 2023 at 5:31 p.m.

#70

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Quoting: Victor24

He isn't. I can give you data to back that up if you'd like.

is your data goals% again?

Dec. 26, 2023 at 5:34 p.m.

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Quoting: Victor24

I don't think you understand how good Nemec is. There is very little risk for the Penguins and Pettersson for 1.5 years is simply not worth Nemec's insane upside

Dec. 26, 2023 at 5:36 p.m.

#72

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Quoting: Victor24

Yep. It says so in the description

There’s no world where a rental Guentzel returns nearly that much. That’s significantly more than Debrincat returned

About 2 1sts more of value than Toffoli returned

Show me any example of a rental winger returning this much in a trade. A much more likely and reasonable return is a 1st and a lesser prospect than Willander (probably someone on the level of Raty/Brzustewicz, or maybe Podkolzin if PIT prefers an NHL ready player) and maybe a salary filler

Dec. 26, 2023 at 5:36 p.m.

#73

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Quoting: dgibb10

is your data goals% again?

I mean %goals is indicative of how good a defensive pair is. The point is to win games and if you score more than your opponent, you win games. Why don't you give me some metrics you think are important and we and look at a comparison?

No offense (and I sincerely mean that) but if you're an "eye test" person, our discussion isn't going to go anywhere. If you aren't we can talk numbers and stats.

Dec. 26, 2023 at 5:37 p.m.

#74

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Quoting: Victor24

Defensemen who make the NHL and look good at 19-20 years old are few and far between. Defensemen who produced like Nemec did in a pro league at ages 16-18 simply do not exist. He is the only one.

Pettersson is a two year rental and probably worth a 1st. Nemec is worth multiple 1sts at minimum.

Dec. 26, 2023 at 5:37 p.m.

#75