goals% is impacted by goaltending, which for the devils is very poor. xG% is a better measure, but even still he's only 19 or 20. If he's dead average at that age, his ceiling is insane.

Yeah he jumped right in, even we didn't think it would happen so quickly

xGoals for is significantly more meaningful, since it takes out the goaltending behind him and the finishing in front of him.

you can find the athletics valuations here athletic
Nemec (all numbers 5v5)
0.91 points/60:
56.9% xGoals share
54% corsi
51% fenwick
And the Athletics numbers here nemec
Pettersson
0.91 points/60
50.8% xGoals
52% corsi
50% fenwick

That can totally be your opinion. I think (based on total current and speculative value) Nemec is probably worth 2/3 mid 1sts. His current value being a 3rd or 4th and future value being 2/3 mid 1sts.

Pettersson is worth a 1st and an A prospect (or 2 mid 1sts). Which means NJ would be overpaying by a 1st or 2. That's a lot and I don't blame you guys for your reaction. But to trade a valuable piece of your roster (on a competitive team] to a division rival will cost a lot

Athletic player valuations

"a 1st or 2" is an insane amount to overpay

Great data. Love it (sincerely) but why is actual %goals not valuable? The Devils are 2nd to last in the division at preventing goals. Goaltending is a factor but so is the defense.

Totally agree. But again, this team isn't wanting to sell. If I asked you to sell me your house that is estimated to cost $300,000. And I offered you $300,000 you'd likely tell me no. It is fair value but you don't want to sell. I would have to offer you a much higher number to sell it.

xG is a great predictor of goals, and the Devils are at worst average defensively by xG. The goalies are simply not making the saves that an average goalie would

Right but you're the one posting the trade offer. You can't sell something without a buyer, and there are no buyers at this price

over a very large sample size goals% may become more meaningful, but there’s too much luck behind it. Especially when looking at defenders.

Because dman generally have very little impact into the actual finishing aspect, goals for generally have to do with luck.

And league wide all you can do is stop quality chances as best as possible, what your goalies do with said chances is out of your control

For a star forward goals for may be more indicative than xGoals for, because obviously an elite sniper is going to bury a lot more goals than their expected chances say. But goals against isn’t something they have a lot of control over, xgoals against is

There is a reason why deals generally don’t happen until a player is a year away from free agency. This concept of surplus value is fascinating, but it’s basically dependent on when the prospect is actualized and most aren’t in year 1/2.

Bahl and a first should get you a good defenseman, but it likely won’t get you a good defenseman with term. 1st round picks not in the top 15 are just as likely to be An AHL player as an NHL player.

Am I crazy or is the guy that made this ACGM arguing that Pettersson is worth the moon + and that Nemec is basically dog **** so NJ should be grateful that they even get this offer? Like if that's your thinking, just keep Pettersson than, it's not worth him to trade him for a "crap" player.

You misunderstood. I believe Nemec has a very high ceiling but I am saying he is a 3rd liner right now. He may some day reach a guy like Makar but he might also become a guy like Reinhard.

Petterson is worth a lot because he is great and having an elite season. A mid 1st and an A prospect is not the moon. This is more than that due to the Pens not wanting to sell and the division rivalry.

It’s interesting, because I view most top prospects ending up at 60% of what’s expected or 125% of what’s expected. Rarely do they hit with the exact projection and most are on the lower end of that scale.

There is a reason why so many bad teams draft high year after year. There is also a reason why some teams seem to be able to get later round picks to outperform their draft expectation. So much of development is about fit and growth

See I don't agree there. %goals is a combination of how well the defensive pair controlled play, assisted in goal scoring, and prevented chances. There is a reason Makar has been top 5 in that category for years now. If a defensive pair control the puck, clear lanes, make breakout passes, and cover the forwards, they prevent more goals.

In 400+ minutes, Petterson-Karlson have been on the ice for 26 goals for an 11 against. In that same amount of time Bahl-Marino is 20 for and 22 against.

In fact only 1 pairing for NJ has a positive %goals in 150+ min (Hughes-Miller). They really need defensive help.

Yeah most guys who are supposed to be top pair defenseman or top line forwards become 2/3 pair or middle 6. That's the risk in prospects.

Makar also dominates in xGoals%. Generally they follow quite closely, especially over a large sample size . In makars case he consistently dominates both categories 5v5, with the goals% being slightly ahead of the xGoals%. This likely stems from the fact that Colorado has had a run of quality goalies in Kuemper and Georgiev, as well as elite snipers like Rantanen.

The devils this year have had the worst goaltending in hockey. Thats no secret and it drags down the goal% of every devils player

Fair. But if I offered to sell my $300,000 house for $500,000 that would be my prerogative. You don't have to buy it. You can even tell me that no one will pay that. You could be right. But it is the price that I could not pass up even if I wanted to stay.

Yeah if I were the Devils I would get a goalie. A quality defenseman would also be on my list but not #1.

I’d want either a quality goalie or a true stopgap like Mrazek for dirt cheap to just not be as horrific as Vanacek has been

To be fair, NJ currently has the 53rd and 67th (out of 71) ranked goaltenders in goals saved above expected with games started. Pittsburgh is at 9 and 23.

I believe we are getting to the point in the season where randomness is less of an explanation.

Honestly, I would trade for a true goalie with term. Honestly, if the Pens were totally out and selling (or a similar team with a top 10ish goalie and good dman) I would trade a lotto protected 1st + Nemec or the younger Hughes for Pettersson + Jarry or Saros and a shutdown dman on Nash. Nash might agree. Pit probably still wouldn't.

True. I didn't realize goaltending was that bad in NJ

It's funny how after I provided you with so many examples of similar defensemen you just make a new post to try and ignore the facts.

Let me repeat...

CBJ paid a mid-1st and 2nd for Provorov 4.725M, 3 years remaining (UFA)

VAN paid a mid-1st and 2nd for Hronek 4.4M, 2 years remaining (RFA)

OTT paid a mid-1st, mid-2nd, and 2026 2nd for Chychrun 4.6M, 3 years remaining (UFA)

LAK paid a late-1st and 3rd for Gavrikov 2.8M rental (UFA)

BOS paid a very late-1st, and two very late 2nds for Lindholm 2.6M rental (UFA)

The same expectations are being had by Calgary fans about Hanifin and Tanev, they want 1sts + prospects + picks for them both.

Yes, Pettersson is so amazing because of X, Y, and Z, the defensemen listed above do A thru W better than Pettersson. GMs are going to use each of these defensemen above as a benchmark for value. Pettersson is worth a 1st + 2nd, you could expect to get a 1st + A-tier prospect if you retain 50% for the remaining term.