Projected Cap Hit Prior To Days Remaining : $83,863,619
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This is just a rough sketch of the idea of the devils making some sort of deal with Van for DeSmith. The idea here is that it's essentially a rental for both teams, without the same long term ramifications as, for example, a deal for Gibson.
For Vancouver, you get a player with a lower cap hit, who is scoring at a much better pace and with a better history in the league, so it's an improvement on the wing for sure. On the other hand, there may be a slight reduction in the quality of backup goalie, but overall VV is not bad, has performed great the past season, and in the context of a backup goalie, should be just fine. Also at the end of the day you only have one more year of his salary after this, and in the worst case, it's probably something that isn't that difficult to get rid of.
For the Devils, this is a rental goalie who, while not a star, should nonetheless be able to put up better numbers than anyone we have - hopefully enough to get us to the playoffs. It isn't a long term solution, but at the same time, it doesn't have the type of long term consequences as, say, a trade for Gibson, which would involve giving up long term assets for a questionable goalie with many years left on his contract. This is low risk in that respect. We depreciate somewhat in terms of losing TT for Kuzmenko, but he has also put up big numbers in the past and so may be worth the flier, and in any event, it's taking from an area of abundance to address an area of need. Here we are not giving up anything of too much long term value and shouldn't be handcuffing us for a future.
Also consider that we have the Hamilton LTIR money for this seaon.
The biggest issue that I see is that Kuzmenko contract for next year. That may be too much for us to take on. But there may be some creative ways to deal with that (I've mentioned them below, but don't let those distract too much). I'd also implore people to consider the alternatives, which usually involve taking on huge contracts for longer term that we would struggle equally to accommodate.
*** This is just a thought, curious to hear feedback on how it could be improved.
The retained salary is just one concept related to the possibility of the Devils laundering Vanacek's contract through a team like Chicago to save 1 mil (for say a 4th or 5th round pick), and thus get a reciprocal retention from Vancouver. This may be important in order to work out the Devils ability to deal with the costs of Kuzmenko next year, when they will, as mentioned, face some serious cap difficulties.
See the other comment, the 1 mil retained on Kuzmenko is conditional on our ability to maybe make a three way trade with a team like chicago to retain some on Vanacek. For purposes of this discussion it could also be ignored.
Why wouldn’t we be able to get a team’s backup goalie for a 3rd??
“You can’t get a goalie like DeSmith for a 3rd”
Meanwhile DeSmith was literally acquired for a 3rd.
Backup goalies, no matter how they’ve been playing, go for mid round picks historically
It isn't about what is available historically, it's about the market right now. I've already posed questions you haven't answered: why does Vancouver do this? Just because it's more than what they gave? So what? And who replaces DeSmith?? They still need a backup. Why would a team that is looking to make a serious run give up a good backup goalie for a 3rd? You can't just look at past actions, you have to look at why this would make sense for the other team.
It isn't about what is available historically, it's about the market right now. I've already posed questions you haven't answered: why does Vancouver do this? Just because it's more than what they gave? So what? And who replaces DeSmith?? They still need a backup. Why would a team that is looking to make a serious run give up a good backup goalie for a 3rd? You can't just look at past actions, you have to look at why this would make sense for the other team.
The San Jose sharks and Chicago blackhawks are making playoff pushes? Good to know.
remove the retention from both kuzy and vanacek then. makes it cap neutral for this year and neither team has retention carry over next year
Again, the retention from VV is based on a third party team handling it, for some late round pick. Thus, when VAN retains, it isn't a hit, it's just a wash. Meanwhile for us, we get that extra 1 mil off of Kuzy's salary. So it doesn't hurt Vancouver at all, but does help NJ because it helps facilitate the deal. Win / Win, in that sccenario. From the Devils side, that is the point of this, to alleviate next years cap hit. it isn't counterintuitive at all!
And TT retention is for this year, where we have cap space due to LTIR anyway.
The San Jose sharks and Chicago blackhawks are making playoff pushes? Good to know.
As I said, if we can get a guy comparable to DeSmith for a 3rd, then pull the trigger. This is the backup plan if that doesn't work out. Everything I have read is that the goalie market is fairly absurd. Now, that doesn't mean anything exactly, and these writers frequently get things wrong.
But again, as I already said multiple times: I'm just trying to to get a sense of how VAN would respond to this, and consider how it would work out on both sides. If there is a way to get a comparable goalie for something as easy as a mid round pick, go for it. I haven't seen anything on this site that suggests that it is possible though.
As I said, if we can get a guy comparable to DeSmith for a 3rd, then pull the trigger. This is the backup plan if that doesn't work out. Everything I have read is that the goalie market is fairly absurd. Now, that doesn't mean anything exactly, and these writers frequently get things wrong.
But again, as I already said multiple times: I'm just trying to to get a sense of how VAN would respond to this, and consider how it would work out on both sides. If there is a way to get a comparable goalie for something as easy as a mid round pick, go for it. I haven't seen anything on this site that suggests that it is possible though.
I guess time will tell!
Wait it out. See where we are in February. Make a decision from there. More teams will become sellers
Wait it out. See where we are in February. Make a decision from there. More teams will become sellers
And if that happens, we reap the rewards. I'm not suggesting to make the trade now, I'm trying to see if it is a possibility, to canvass all of our options.
What if the deadline comes and none of the options that you are suggesting (ie the goalies you listed for a 3rd) are available? In that event, where it's the option I am presenting vs standing pat, what do you do then?
Again, I'm casting these nets to get a sense of all of the options available to us. Also, by February, a lot of games will have passed, we could be out of a playoff spot. I'm not necessarily taking a stand one way or another but it's worth considering all facets, including what it would take to salvage this season and make the playoffs.
And if that happens, we reap the rewards. I'm not suggesting to make the trade now, I'm trying to see if it is a possibility, to canvass all of our options.
What if the deadline comes and none of the options that you are suggesting (ie the goalies you listed for a 3rd) are available? In that event, where it's the option I am presenting vs standing pat, what do you do then?
Again, I'm casting these nets to get a sense of all of the options available to us. Also, by February, a lot of games will have passed, we could be out of a playoff spot. I'm not necessarily taking a stand one way or another but it's worth considering all facets, including what it would take to salvage this season and make the playoffs.
Depends where we are in the standings, how our current goalies look, the prices on other positions and the prices on the upper tier goalies
Kuzmenko is 100% available. That person has no idea what they're talking about.
Now DeSmith probably isn't available.
My thinking was that if VAN wanted to add some top six talent for a run, they would be willing to move what is essentially a backup goalie on a rental contract. Especially if they could get a decent replacement in Vanacek.
But I can also see the logic of just staying pat. The way Vancouver has been this year, I'm tempted to say, if it isn't broke, don't fix it... But it's also something of an anomaly for them, and even with their success I wonder how far into the playoffs they can really go. Again though I wouldn't fault them for just keeping the band together.
(obviously Kuzmenko was just a side part to facilitate the DeSmith deal, I don't think any team is going to make a player-for-player trade for him, though maybe someone would take a risk on him for a 3rd or something, if Van was willing to retain).
Real question for Van is what it would take to get both Toffoli and McLeod???
haha, well, I'd ask you, since you think it's a question to pose to Vancouver (as opposed to NJ), what do you think it would take? Or, better question, what would you be willing to give up?
1st+3rd for toffoli retained
1st+2nd+prospect for McLeod (take a look at the free agent center class and get back to me)
Maaaaybe, though it's not clear why we would be wanting that many picks and prospects? I guess to flip as trade bait, but all things considered I would rather deal directly with those suitors.
The San Jose sharks and Chicago blackhawks are making playoff pushes? Good to know.
Oh there aren't any teams besides the devils looking for goaltending help? The Oilers, Leafs, Hurricanes, and more don't exist? Oh wow, good to know! For a second I thought that demand affected the cost of supply but now I realize freshman year economics doesn't apply to hockey. Pheeew!
In all honesty, I look forward to seeing whether your predictions come true, given that you've staked your entire position on it. If you are correct, then modern hockey writers are garbage. And if that is the determinative factor, I'd wager you are probably correct...
Oh there aren't any teams besides the devils looking for goaltending help? The Oilers, Leafs, Hurricanes, and more don't exist? Oh wow, good to know! For a second I thought that demand affected the cost of supply but now I realize freshman year economics doesn't apply to hockey. Pheeew!
In all honesty, I look forward to seeing whether your predictions come true, given that you've staked your entire position on it. If you are correct, then modern hockey writers are garbage. And if that is the determinative factor, I'd wager you are probably correct...
The devils have cap space that none of those other teams do.
4 buyers, none of whom have cap space, meanwhile I have a list of 20 goalies I'd buy. Or not buy, I don't particularly care with the amount of injuries we've had this season.
The devils have cap space that none of those other teams do.
4 buyers, none of whom have cap space, meanwhile I have a list of 20 goalies I'd buy. Or not buy, I don't particularly care with the amount of injuries we've had this season.
Cap space is easily manufactured for competing teams looking to win right now. Other teams will take bad contracts off the books for stray picks. Virtually everyone will tell you that the goalie market is absurd right now.
But, again, virtually everyone will tell you many things, and they don't all turn out to be true. I'm looking forward to revisiting this after the trade deadline! We'll see who was right and who was wrong.
Cap space is easily manufactured for competing teams looking to win right now. Other teams will take bad contracts off the books for stray picks. Virtually everyone will tell you that the goalie market is absurd right now.
But, again, virtually everyone will tell you many things, and they don't all turn out to be true. I'm looking forward to revisiting this after the trade deadline! We'll see who was right and who was wrong.
I don't doubt that asking prices are absurb right now. Which is the reason no moves have been made. Prices will go down tho.
Sellers know that a goalie is the riskiest asset to hold out on.
All these sellers with goalies having random career years know that at any second the clock can strike midnight and they could turn back into a pumpkin.
: $83,863,619
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