If you're calling about Elias Pettersson and even your 2024 first is off the table, yeah don't bother. This is like if the Canucks offered Raty, Hogs and a first for Dahlin

It's not off the table?
It's also not even close to the same situation because Dahlin is under contract...
I fully respect and agree that EP is an elite talent and will fetch a high price. This is higher than we've seen any RFA traded for before.

It's less then Meier trade though was more parts to that deal. EP with a multi year extension gets more.

Not saying the offer is good or not, but more so funny that you think Raty and hogs = Ostland and savoie. Not even the same tiers

12.5 for one player giving them 0 cap space for their rfas

I'd argue it's more value than the Meier trade even without the other pieces that went with Meier considered.

Meier trade:
Johnsson - irrelevant cap dump and out of the league a year later
Zetterlund - 3rd round with 3rd line upside.
Okhotiuk - late 2nd with bottom pairing upside.
Mukhamadulin - late 1st
26th overall
conditional 2nd
7th rounder

or

Savoie - 9th overall with elite 1C upside
Ostlund - 16th overall with 1C upside
37th overall-ish
unprotected 1st rounder a year away

I respect the sentiment but looking at the RFAs:
Rousek, Biro, Krebs and Levi are irrelevant as far as raises go etc. with these roles.
Quinn, Peterka, Johnson all remain to be seen but I feel like they're gonna get bridged until Skinner comes off the books.
Maybe one of them gets a Tippett deal after next year but the money opens up more after a couple more years.
We also still have Kulich and Rosen coming to fill spots on ELCs.

... Peterka, Quinn, Levi definitely will be getting more than you think, Johnson may get a bridge, but the other 3 will get more than 12.5 combined

If UPL keeps his play up it wouldn't surprise me if Levi hits RFA status after spending all of next year in Rochester. Meaning he'll get another year or two around 1M. Quinn and Peterka could take 4.5M x 2 year bridges and then 9M additional opens up to sign them long term. This is also assuming that they actually perform and win and actually try to keep everyone outside of an expiring Skinner.

99% chance Levi is in the NHL next year and everyone will be praising him as if they weren't calling him a bust all this year. Why would Quinn and Peterka take pay cuts? Unless Quinn is out again next year both will be commanding significant raises, especially with the cap going up

At the rate they have performed they'd be looking at Owen Tippett money long term. If they bet on themselves for a two year bridge they can be looking at Jeff Skinner money.

I agree on Levi but it would be better for him and the Sabres if UPL is playing 3/4 really well to have Levi play more games in the AHL. I love Levi, he just would benefit from time in my opinion.

There are not any other Sabre ACGM's that understand team building as well as you.
Very insightful.
As you correctly addressed cap is not an issue for the Sabres.

Over Luukkonen's last 9 games the Sabres have scored 20 goals.
In the four games he lost, they scored 4 while he only surrendered 8.
He is the real deal.

Tkachuk got a better return than this despite playing a less valuable position and not being as good as Pettersson currently is at the time of the trade

115 point 1st line winger
High end 1st pairing dman
1st round pick
3rd round prospect

That's fair but I see it as the outlier not the rule. And Florida made that decision with the Huberdeau contract they knew they couldn't afford, looming. Tkachuk put up 104 points that season, was 24, and a winger. Pettersson is on pace for 107, 25 years old and a center. He has slightly more value but not a ton more. If we look at that trade in hindsight (which I hate doing but I'm gonna), Florida saw enough in Huberdeau to not value him higher as a pending UFA who was gonna command 8 figures. I look at Weegar as a good #2 Dman or excellent #3. I don't think I'd move Savoie and Ostlund together for that dman. Then you have the 1st(3 drafts/4years away) and a meh prospect where my 1st(1 draft away) and 2nd. I genuinely think this offer is just as good as that one.

Thank you

Levi since December has been playing better than most people give him credit for. He been a top 30 goalie for goalies with more than 20 games since then, given an additional offseason going in to next year he'll be the 1b and I assume he gets 30+ games next year as well

That's why I've got him in the lineup as the 1B. I hear you and I agree. I think a 50/30 split is totally realistic for them next year. A good season playing 30 games is still not going to get him more than like a 2.5M or 3M AAV on a two year deal. So if you're laying out the projected 13.4M in cap space going into next season:
Peterka - 4.5M
Quinn - 4.5M
Levi - 3M
Johnson - 1.4M
Now you have 4 roster spots to fill with no money that are your 4th line wingers and two healthy scratches.
Samuelsson, Clifton, Skinner last year at 50% retn, are all trade candidates to make that space with Rosen, Strbak, Levshunov, all knocking on the door for minutes and other quality free agent finds available on 1M AAV deals.

I'm not giving Peterka and Quinn 4.5 x 2 contracts, it'd probably be 6 x 2 anyway and even if it was 4.5 x 2 you're already needing to make trades

While obviously Huberdeau hasn’t worked out in Calgary, at the time he was considered an elite 1st line forward. A player of that caliber being included definitely makes that a better return than your proposed offer (which isn’t the worst offer but I’d still hope for more if we moved Petey)

There's no way they'd get 6M x 2 when Tippett only got his 6.2M AAV by signing for 8 years... I mean we can wait and see what Jarvis, Necas, and Raymond sign for too but Tippett has set the market so far.

Just adding another reply because I wanted to build on what I said here:



Jack Quinn - 22 years old - 51 points in 94 games - add 86 points in the next 117 games (60pt/yr pace) and you get 137 points in 211 games = 0.65ppg
JJ Peterka - 22 years old - 66 points in 129 games - add 86 points in the next 117 games (60pt/yr pace) and you get 152 points in 246 games = 0.62ppg

Here's a whole list of comparables to that situation based on Buffalo's most recent comparable:
https://www.capfriendly.com/comparables/sam-reinhart-8852

4.6% of the 87.5M cap is just over 4M AAV on a two year bridge. 4.5M x 2 years looks about right to me.
Once Skinner is off the books you can pay them both 8.5M per year with what was Skinner's contract and still have 1M leftover to replace the roster spot at the bottom of the lineup. That makes space without even accounting for an increase to the Cap.

Reinhart was traded partially because he was frustrated with his contract...

I never heard that.
He was an RFA that was saying he wouldn't re-sign with the team if they were taking a step back with the Eichel trade. It just gave him leverage. If the Eichel for Tkachuk trade happened he might have never left. That was also after Reinhart's 3rd contract expired. Not his 2nd. They could have committed to him after the bridge but instead they went to arbitration(kiss of death on relationships).

You heard it here first then. Reinhart felt he was worth more than a bridge deal. Bridge Peterka and Quinn and there's a pretty good chance they go to arb as well

I don’t think it would happen, but if it did, it would start with Cozens and a 1rst.