Buying Campbell Out

Forums/Armchair-GM

Page 1 of 1

Created by: OldNYIfan

Team: 2024-25 Edmonton Oilers

Initial Creation Date: Feb. 16, 2024

Published: Feb. 16, 2024

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

What am I missing here?

What's the urgency in giving up a first-round draft pick and more to dump Jack Campbell's contract this season? Because you "have to make space for a big acquisition"? (According to CapFriendly, Edmonton will have more than $2 million in accrued cap space at the deadline even without dumping Campbell's contract.)

The Oilers are doing fine. And once Campbell is gone without any serious roster derangement, the team will look like this at the start of the off-season.

Plenty of cap space to allocate among a #2RW, a #2RD, a #1b G and 2 depth forwards.

I mean, you don't REALLY think that you're going to get a high-cost, high-cap-hit, game-breaking RW at the trade deadline this year AND get rid of Campbell's cap hit at the same time, do you?

Free Agent Signings

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Holloway, Dylan	2	$1,000,000
Broberg, Philip	2	$900,000
Hamblin, James	2	$900,000
Lavoie, Raphael	2	$900,000
Fanti, Ryan	2	$850,000
Dineen, Cam	1	$775,000
Hoefenmayer, Noel	1	$775,000
Niemeläinen, Markus	1	$775,000
Rodrigue, Olivier	1	$775,000
Savoie, Carter	1	$775,000

Buyouts

James Neal: $1,916,667
Jack Campbell: $1,100,000

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2024
2025
2026

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
18	$87,500,000	$78,591,667	$3,450,000	$300,000	$8,908,333

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan $5,125,000$5,125,000 LW, C NMC UFA - 5	McDavid, Connor $12,500,000$12,500,000 C NMC UFA - 2	Hyman, Zach $5,500,000$5,500,000 RW, LW NMC UFA - 4
Kane, Evander $5,125,000$5,125,000 LW, RW NMC UFA - 2	Draisaitl, Leon $8,500,000$8,500,000 C, LW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 1
Holloway, Dylan $1,000,000$1,000,000 LW, C RFA	McLeod, Ryan $2,100,000$2,100,000 C RFA - 1	Bourgault, Xavier $925,000$925,000 ($300,000$300K) RW RFA - 1
	Ryan, Derek $900,000$900,000 C, RW UFA - 1	Hamblin, James $900,000$900,000 RW, C RFA
		Lavoie, Raphael $900,000$900,000 RW, C RFA

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Nurse, Darnell $9,250,000$9,250,000 LD NMC UFA - 6	Bouchard, Evan $3,900,000$3,900,000 RD RFA - 1	Skinner, Stuart $2,600,000$2,600,000 G UFA - 2
Ekholm, Mattias $6,000,000$6,000,000 LD/RD UFA - 2
Kulak, Brett $2,750,000$2,750,000 LD/RD UFA - 2	Ceci, Cody $3,250,000$3,250,000 RD UFA - 1
Broberg, Philip $900,000$900,000 LD RFA

Feb. 16 at 5:31 p.m.

edeangel84

JimmyPaek

Joined: Apr. 2019

Posts: 3,960

Likes: 1,181

Yep it’s an easy decision. My biggest problem so far with Dubas was when he refused to use a buyout on Granlund this summer. I know we still moved him but the point is sometimes a buyout just makes sense.

OldNYIfan liked this.

Feb. 16 at 5:34 p.m.

jordant89

Joined: Jun. 2016

Posts: 689

Likes: 131

Avoiding 6 years of cap penalties might be worth giving up an asset especially with Draisaitl and McDavid contracts coming up

Feb. 16 at 5:34 p.m.

CaseyFlyman

Joined: Sep. 2018

Posts: 2,111

Likes: 1,789

Pretty good summary of the situation in the description IMO. The only urgency is if EDM feels they absolutely need to give an all-out push this year, and to do so they need to add a high-profile (re: "expensive") player, like Geuntzel.

Unless you're upgrading on Ceci or Kulak with a better and cheaper player, something on the roster has to go to bring something else in. I don't think you all need to change anything big at the moment, go into the playoffs with some tinkering around the edges and see how far that gets you this year. Buyout Campbell in the offseason.

OldNYIfan liked this.

Feb. 16 at 5:37 p.m.

CaseyFlyman

Joined: Sep. 2018

Posts: 2,111

Likes: 1,789

Quoting: jordant89

Avoiding 6 years of cap penalties might be worth giving up an asset especially with Draisaitl and McDavid contracts coming up

There's only two seasons it's over $1.5M, and it's exactly $1.5M for the last 3. It's extremely manageable, especially with Neal coming off the books in 2025. It's a tough decision, but is burying $3.85M for the next 3 seasons actually more manageable?

OldNYIfan liked this.

Feb. 16 at 5:41 p.m.

OldNYIfan

Thread Starter

Once a Kings Fan Too

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 40,593

Likes: 25,450

Quoting: jordant89

Avoiding 6 years of cap penalties might be worth giving up an asset especially with Draisaitl and McDavid contracts coming up

The only "penalties" are in years 4, 5 and 6 because as @CaseyFlyman accurately says, Campbell's cap hit without a buyout is $3.85 million for years 1, 2 and 3 and that's higher in each instance than the buyout figure.

CaseyFlyman liked this.

Feb. 16 at 5:48 p.m.

Victor24

Joined: Mar. 2023

Posts: 2,813

Likes: 956

Every year teams miss out in resigning players or getting FAs by a few million. Buying out Campbell in 2024 gives basically 3MM of dead cap for 3 years.

Your roster here has 12MM to get a 2nd line RW (6MM), a bottom line LW (1MM), a second pair RD (4MM) and a starting goalie (2-5MM depending on ability). That puts you about 1 - 4MM over. Sure would be nice to have that 3MM.

And you'd better hope your two rookies pan out, or your third line is toast.

GoGuinsGo_18 liked this.

Feb. 16 at 5:48 p.m.

Lancebmx

Joined: Oct. 2020

Posts: 10,634

Likes: 8,236

Edited Feb. 16 at 5:53 p.m.

Honestly I think keeping Campbell this year would be the smart move. It would be tough to acquire a goalie since they wouldn't be able to upgrade elsewhere I would expect. They may need him to play in the playoffs if Skinner or Pickard get hurt or siht the bed. He could absolutely, although unlikely, come up and steal the job if he somehow played out of his mind. Stranger things have happened and the cost to dump isn't worth it.

OldNYIfan liked this.

Feb. 16 at 5:49 p.m.

Lancebmx

Joined: Oct. 2020

Posts: 10,634

Likes: 8,236

Does this factor in the Connor Brown bonus?

OldNYIfan liked this.

Feb. 16 at 5:52 p.m.

OldNYIfan

Thread Starter

Once a Kings Fan Too

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 40,593

Likes: 25,450

Quoting: Victor24

Every year teams miss out in resigning players or getting FAs by a few million. Buying out Campbell in 2024 gives basically 3MM of dead cap for 3 years.

Where do you get this number from?

Campbell's cap hit without the buyout is $3.85 million for each of the next 3 seasons. The buyout figures are respectively $1.1 million, $2.3 million and $2.6 million.

Feb. 16 at 5:55 p.m.

#10

OldNYIfan

Thread Starter

Once a Kings Fan Too

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 40,593

Likes: 25,450

Quoting: Lancebmx

Does this factor in the Connor Brown bonus?

No.

I know about the Brown number, but didn't know how to factor it in, because it does not show up on the Oiler main page and I wasn't sure that it carried over if they let his contract expire.

Feb. 16 at 6:02 p.m.

#11

Lancebmx

Joined: Oct. 2020

Posts: 10,634

Likes: 8,236

Edited Feb. 16 at 6:11 p.m.

Quoting: OldNYIfan

No.

I know about the Brown number, but didn't know how to factor it in, because it does not show up on the Oiler main page and I wasn't sure that it carried over if they let his contract expire.

I'm pretty sure it does if they don't have the cap space to cover it this season. Not totally sure how it all works and I bet you might know more than I about it. All I know is if a player that was injured for majority of the season or out for whatever reason signs a contract with a bonus like that, it can carry over to next season if they don't have the cap for this season. I think age is the other factor hence the Bergeron or Krejci bonus overages. So I believe his 3.225M bonus will be carried over, especially if they use that bit of cap space you mentioned earlier to add this season.
All that might make the idea of trading Campbell a bit more enticing over buying him out.
Also I think they need to make a decision on Kulak after this season as his cap hit is a bit high for a third pairing guy, not that he isn't worth it. They really need to try and find bargains this offseason. With their lack of drafted talent, makes it even more difficult.

OldNYIfan liked this.

Feb. 16 at 6:19 p.m.

#12

OldNYIfan

Thread Starter

Once a Kings Fan Too

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 40,593

Likes: 25,450

Quoting: Lancebmx

I'm pretty sure it does if they don't have the cap space to cover it this season. Not totally sure how it all works and I bet you might know more than I about it. {Ha, ha, you bet wrong.} All I know is if a player that was injured for majority of the season or out for whatever reason signs a contract with a bonus like that, it can carry over to next season if they don't have the cap for this season. I think age is the other factor hence the Bergeron or Krejci bonus overages. So I believe his 3.225M bonus will be carried over, especially if they use that bit of cap space you mentioned earlier to add this season.
All that might make the idea of trading Campbell a bit more enticing over buying him out.
Also I think they need to make a decision on Kulak after this season as his cap hit is a bit high for a third pairing guy, not that he isn't worth it. They really need to try and find bargains this offseason. With their lack of drafted talent, makes it even more difficult.

Thanks for alerting me to this issue. One possibility is that the Edmonton GM is smart enough to create enough cap space through a trade or two to swallow the bonus this year. More likely is that the bonus does carry over and thus would of course affect my $12 million + cap space figure. But I think, as I suspect you do too, that the buyout strategy is superior to a disadvantageous trade which would also restrict their ability to make other additions to the roster.

Thanks again for pointing this out! cheers

Lancebmx liked this.

Feb. 16 at 6:22 p.m.

#13

sharksdoee

sharks88

Joined: Jul. 2019

Posts: 351

Likes: 175

Definitely a tough decision to make. Do you want that extra 2.3 + 2.6 million in the first years of Drai and McD extensions, respectively? Will a late first rounder + other picks/prospects be impactful enough over these next few years to make the dead cap worth it? Interested to see what happens.
If they trade him I think it would be best to do at this TDL to maximize cap to add for a '24 playoff run.

OldNYIfan liked this.

Feb. 16 at 8:13 p.m.

#14

Victor24

Joined: Mar. 2023

Posts: 2,813

Likes: 956

Quoting: OldNYIfan

Right.
2024: 1.1MM for Campbell + 1.9MM for Neil
2025: 2.2MM
2026: 2.6MM

If Edmonton needs a 2nd RW, 2nd RHD, 4th LW, and a starting goalie; that 1.1MM might be very important in 2024. As it might in the subsequent years where they still owe 2-3MM. A late 1st and late 2nd would be well worth the money IMO.

Feb. 17 at 9:39 a.m.

#15

Victor24

Joined: Mar. 2023

Posts: 2,813

Likes: 956

Quoting: Lancebmx

All three goalies have been bad this year. Skinner has been the least bad but his WAR is still 29th in the NHL

Page 1 of 1

DISPLAY SETTING

BETTING ODDS

LOCALE

ARCHIVE

CBA

CALCULATORS

FANTASY HOCKEY TOOLS

TOOLS

PLAYERS

WESTERN CONFERENCE

EASTERN CONFERENCE

INTERACTIVE FEATURES

Forums/Armchair-GM