Disclaimer: not a Leafs fan, I'm just curious to see how things are lining up in 2 years once Tavares' contract bumps down to something more reasonable and Marner is extended.
UFAs that IMO aren't there in 2 years: Bertuzzi, Brodie, Lyubushkin
RFAs that IMO aren't there in 2 years*: Liljegren, Gregor, Holmberg, Robertson, Steeves, Timmins
*likely traded, I'm not going to guess at returns and how that shakes out. Probably as parts of deals for rentals, or shipped for picks/prospects that aren't there in 2 years anyway.
The holes**: 1LW or 2LW, 2LD, 1RD***
LD: Pettersson. He's a good veteran defensive D that should be a good fit on the 2nd pair. If Pittsburgh is entering a rebuild, they move him as a rental at TDL 2025 for a good return and he likely hits free agency. Option 2: Provorov, who plays a different style but is probably a similar situation and a similar cost.
1RD: Andersson, see the trade below for details
2LW: Duclair. Not the most attractive option, but realistically you're getting a proven, skilled top-6 scoring winger at what could be a bargain price.
Signed in 2024, he's likely not getting extended by TBL. He's a sign/buy-low candidate, which is what Toronto probably resorts to here. Essentially swapping Bertuzzi for Duclair and saving some money. Option 2: Nyquist, though he probably sticks with Nashville. Option 3: Buchnevich, though the cap situation is going to make that basically impossible.
**I'm filling these with guys that, as of now, don't have a clear long-term future with their current teams. They are probably 2024 or 2025 TDL rental trades that are available in free agency. Not, for example, Hanifin, who I could see re-signing with Vegas.
***with the exception of 1RD, who you'd need to acquire via trade in all likelihood.
Final note: I know it's over the cap, even if it jumps $8M total over the next two years. There's also no 13th or 14th F. I'm just not going to deal with those details on a team's roster 2 years from now that I'm not a fan of. I'm simply not going to bother another fanbase with a Kampf-for-retained-4C deal that's more feasible when he's got less term. The point here is just to look at the missing pieces and see how dangerous this team could be if they play their cards right.
He's realistically the only long-term established 1RD option that may become available...and it costs everything that's not tied down. Assuming Calgary opts for a rebuild over making him their next captain/part of the future.
Flames would want any conversation around Andersson to start with Knies and a 1st, then add from there. Toronto won't make Knies available which means there won't be any trade and Calgary will probably just opt to re-sign him.
IMO the Leafs should be targeting guys like Roy and Pesce this summer if they hit the market. I would even kick tires on Spurgeon
It'll take quality not quantity for Calgary to consider trading Andersson.
Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
Flames would want any conversation around Andersson to start with Knies and a 1st, then add from there. Toronto won't make Knies available which means there won't be any trade and Calgary will probably just opt to re-sign him.
IMO the Leafs should be targeting guys like Roy and Pesce this summer if they hit the market. I would even kick tires on Spurgeon
Agreed, in fact signing UFAs fits Brad's M.O. well. The only problem is he's usually too cheap to get the best free agents and winds up paying almost as much for 3rd rate UFAs.
Flames would want any conversation around Andersson to start with Knies and a 1st, then add from there. Toronto won't make Knies available which means there won't be any trade and Calgary will probably just opt to re-sign him.
IMO the Leafs should be targeting guys like Roy and Pesce this summer if they hit the market. I would even kick tires on Spurgeon
I get that, it's hard to get a good roster player without giving up a good roster player or prospect. Roy and Pesce would be the obvious targets this year, I just don't see LA or Carolina not extending them; they'd be a priority for either team. Minnesota likely isn't moving Spurgeon. Even if Faber makes him expendable, he's already 34, I just don't know that the Leafs view that as a long-term 1RD option.
Quoting: MoxNix
It'll take quality not quantity for Calgary to consider trading Andersson.
As it should. It really feels like even with Tavares' deal dropping down to something more manageable, Toronto is going to have to choose which obvious hole on the roster they can live with as long as Matthews, Marner, and Nylander are here. Maybe they get lucky and hit on a RD randomly instead in the draft.
Quoting: MoxNix
The only problem is he's usually too cheap to get the best free agents and winds up paying almost as much for 3rd rate UFAs.
The cruel irony: the cap crunch makes it impossible to land top UFAs (I was going to try to add Buchnevich here but lol), but bargain-shopping UFAs leads to overpayment and a further cap crunch.
As it should. It really feels like even with Tavares' deal dropping down to something more manageable, Toronto is going to have to choose which obvious hole on the roster they can live with as long as Matthews, Marner, and Nylander are here.
That's the Leafs biggest problem right there. Moving on from Marner is the obvious solution but they won't get what they think he's worth especially not now that his full NMC has kicked in.
They're stuck between a rock and a hard place. Moving him next year probably takes retention or taking a bad contract in return and the other options are trading his rights just before free agency opens for even less or letting him walk for nothing at all in return.
That's the Leafs biggest problem right there. Moving on from Marner is the obvious solution but they won't get what they think he's worth especially not now that his full NMC has kicked in.
They're stuck between a rock and a hard place. Moving him next year probably takes retention or taking a bad contract in return and the other options are trading his rights just before free agency opens for even less or letting him walk for nothing at all in return.
They took one of their most valuable assets, made him untradeable, and either lose him for little in return or keep him and fail to make the additions they need to make the team a true contender.
The plan is literally playoff luck, either by outscoring more complete teams, being healthier than the competition, or just random success. Only the Leafs I guess.
Leafs keep Minten (who will be needed in 25/26) the first and third, which have no implications next season and spend 4m on a UFA, instead of one Andersson.
That's the Leafs biggest problem right there. Moving on from Marner is the obvious solution but they won't get what they think he's worth especially not now that his full NMC has kicked in.
They're stuck between a rock and a hard place. Moving him next year probably takes retention or taking a bad contract in return and the other options are trading his rights just before free agency opens for even less or letting him walk for nothing at all in return.
????? Kinda makes no sense. Cup and even playoff contenders do not trade their upcoming UFAs. They actually trade for upcoming UFAs for a playoff run.
Leafs really have no motivation to trade Marner. And if Marner doesn't resign with the Leafs, that's just to more cap to sign other UFAs. Gee, the Panthers are the best team in the East, you didn't see them trading upcoming UFAs, Reinhart and Montour just because they might not resign.
Gee, you would have thought the Flames would have up learned from this. Just because a team has an upcoming UFA (Huberdeau), there is no obligation to sign him to an extension.
????? Kinda makes no sense. Cup and even playoff contenders do not trade their upcoming UFAs. They actually trade for upcoming UFAs for a playoff run.
Leafs really have no motivation to trade Marner. And if Marner doesn't resign with the Leafs, that's just to more cap to sign other UFAs. Gee, the Panthers are the best team in the East, you didn't see them trading upcoming UFAs, Reinhart and Montour just because they might not resign.
Gee, you would have thought the Flames would have up learned from this. Just because a team has an upcoming UFA (Huberdeau), there is no obligation to sign him to an extension.
That is what Bonehead Brad does.
I guess you forget the Panthers traded upcoming UFAs Weegar and Huberdeau not very long ago... One of their top forwards coming off a 115 point season and one of their best defensemen.
I guess you forget the Panthers traded upcoming UFAs Weegar and Huberdeau not very long ago... One of their top forwards coming off a 115 point season and one of their best defensemen.
They traded one year of Huberdeau, one year of Weager and a first, for the hope and probability they could one year till UFA Tkachuk. Actually a good trade for the Flames. Trevling should never have got another NHL job because of that Huberdeau signing, and maybe just his tenure in Calgary. But the Leafs have a habit of hiring poor GMs.
But the Leafs aren't stuck. They actually a little more cap flexibility this summer. Summer of 2025 without Marner, Tavares...that's 22m. Going be interesting how they spend it.
I get that, it's hard to get a good roster player without giving up a good roster player or prospect. Roy and Pesce would be the obvious targets this year, I just don't see LA or Carolina not extending them; they'd be a priority for either team. Minnesota likely isn't moving Spurgeon. Even if Faber makes him expendable, he's already 34, I just don't know that the Leafs view that as a long-term 1RD option.
LA really can't afford to keep Roy, I think there is a very good chance he gets traded before the draft for a mid round pick the same way Severson was last year. From what I can tell is that Carolina and Pesce are not close, we could definitely see a divorce there.
Toronto simply isn't going to trade Knies. And because of this Calgary isn't going to trade them Andersson. Toronto just doesn't have enough quality in prospects (if he still counts as one) past that to warrant a player like Andersson, and Calgary is probably more inclined to keep Andersson anyways.
Minnesota probably won't move Spurgeon but they are in cap hell still and his huge contract is not helping them at all. On top of that he becomes far more moveable on July 1st as his Full NMC changes to a 10 team no trade list. I think it is a very real possibility that Minnesota opts to change the direction of their team this summer, especially if they miss the playoffs. And as you mentioned the emergence of Faber has really made that possible. Spurgeon still has a lot of name power around the league. But due to his injury, age, and term I don't think his trade value is ridiculously high. I could see a situation where Minny values the gained cap space and ability to retool more than getting a haul in return for him.
It'll take quality not quantity for Calgary to consider trading Andersson.
Agreed, in fact signing UFAs fits Brad's M.O. well. The only problem is he's usually too cheap to get the best free agents and winds up paying almost as much for 3rd rate UFAs.
What makes you think Marner is going to waive playing in his hometown? Either he re-signs which destroys the cap or walks. The leafs have no choice in his decision. What Trev did wrong was sign Nylander to that contract. Marner is by far the more valuable player and leafs are in a major cap decision.
What makes you think Marner is going to waive playing in his hometown? Either he re-signs which destroys the cap or walks. The leafs have no choice in his decision. What Trev did wrong was sign Nylander to that contract. Marner is by far the more valuable player and leafs are in a major cap decision.
I don't. In fact I've repeatedly said he wouldn't. I've also repeatedly said Calgary wouldn't want him. And no you've got it backwards Nylander is far more valuable than Marner. One shows up when the games get tough, the other vanishes.
Leafs really have no motivation to trade Marner. And if Marner doesn't resign with the Leafs, that's just to more cap to sign other UFAs. Gee, the Panthers are the best team in the East, you didn't see them trading upcoming UFAs, Reinhart and Montour just because they might not resign.
I don't think they do either (hence why I played with extending him here), but the nature of keeping all of the top wingers means you have holes elsewhere on the roster due to cap. I think that's exactly what's demonstrated here.
Toronto won't move Marner, but they're going to have to find a way to work around not having a stud RD, or a bona fide top-6 winger aside from Knies, Marner, and Nylander. There's 14 holes in the boat and you've got 10 fingers; the hope is you can still get to shore/win a Cup with that.
If they decided they wanted to fill the holes instead, Marner is the most realistic piece to move considering they just extended Nylander, aren't finding a taker on Tavares, and aren't moving Matthews who's literally the best player in franchise history and a top-5 player in the league every single year. But they can't do that because he's got a full NMC until he hits UFA that there's no way he waives. That's what we're getting at.
And no, "just sign other UFAs" isn't as straightforward a solution as it seems. You're always overpaying and exacerbating your cap issues, even if you're able to get two players for the cost of one Marner.
I don't think they do either (hence why I played with extending him here), but the nature of keeping all of the top wingers means you have holes elsewhere on the roster due to cap. I think that's exactly what's demonstrated here.
Toronto won't move Marner, but they're going to have to find a way to work around not having a stud RD, or a bona fide top-6 winger aside from Knies, Marner, and Nylander. There's 14 holes in the boat and you've got 10 fingers; the hope is you can still get to shore/win a Cup with that.
If they decided they wanted to fill the holes instead, Marner is the most realistic piece to move considering they just extended Nylander, aren't finding a taker on Tavares, and aren't moving Matthews who's literally the best player in franchise history and a top-5 player in the league every single year. But they can't do that because he's got a full NMC until he hits UFA that there's no way he waives. That's what we're getting at.
And no, "just sign other UFAs" isn't as straightforward a solution as it seems. You're always overpaying and exacerbating your cap issues, even if you're able to get two players for the cost of one Marner.
The reality is the Leafs can't move Marner and it's not because of the NMC. No team has the cap for Marner, (on his his trade list), without trading similar cap to the Leafs. Leafs fans seem to so emphatic that the Leafs have to trade Marner in order to get "trade value" before free agency. Leafs signed Bertuzzi, Domi, Tavares, Jarnkrok, Reaves, Brodie, Benoit, Samsonov, Kampf as UFAs and didn't; have anything for him.
Leafs gotta a choice in summer of 2025 when Tavares and Marner are upcoming UFAs, how to spend that cap and possibility realign the cap for other players.
The Leafs could have done it this summer, but elected to resign Nylander at 11.5m, instead of using that cap in free agency.
The reality is the Leafs can't move Marner and it's not because of the NMC. No team has the cap for Marner, (on his his trade list), without trading similar cap to the Leafs. Leafs fans seem to so emphatic that the Leafs have to trade Marner in order to get "trade value" before free agency. Leafs signed Bertuzzi, Domi, Tavares, Jarnkrok, Reaves, Brodie, Benoit, Samsonov, Kampf as UFAs and didn't; have anything for him.
Leafs gotta a choice in summer of 2025 when Tavares and Marner are upcoming UFAs, how to spend that cap and possibility realign the cap for other players.
The Leafs could have done it this summer, but elected to resign Nylander at 11.5m, instead of using that cap in free agency.
Of the UFAs they signed Bertuzzi has been fine but a little overpaid. Tavares, Jarnkrok, and Domi are slam dunks, but Tavares' deal is a little rich now. Sammy and Benoit have been fine. But Reaves, Brodie, and Kampf are hindering the team, you're always going to have those guys if you're constructing a team through free agency. If Toronto is fine filling holes with stopgap players every year that are a little overpaid, that's fine, but it's a little non-traditional for building successful teams.
I think the team overall is in a good spot, but they'll be at another crossroads in 2025 with Marner and Tavares. I don't see a world where either leave, though, unless they're out in the first round each of the next two years.
Of the UFAs they signed Bertuzzi has been fine but a little overpaid. Tavares, Jarnkrok, and Domi are slam dunks, but Tavares' deal is a little rich now. Sammy and Benoit have been fine. But Reaves, Brodie, and Kampf are hindering the team, you're always going to have those guys if you're constructing a team through free agency. If Toronto is fine filling holes with stopgap players every year that are a little overpaid, that's fine, but it's a little non-traditional for building successful teams.
I think the team overall is in a good spot, but they'll be at another crossroads in 2025 with Marner and Tavares. I don't see a world where either leave, though, unless they're out in the first round each of the next two years.
Actually I think the Leafs are better cap wise this summer than last. 5m Brodie is gone, likely 5.5m Bertuzzi. Leafs got a break having Klingberg out all season. Samsonov although well worth is contract will be gone too. So they will have cap flexibility this summer. Summer of 2025, I can't see Tavares being resigned unless it's for a low cap. Leafs will praying centre Minten and winger Cowan are NHL ready. Hildeby and Niemela would be nice low cost additions also
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