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Moving up to 1st overall

Created by: JeffGorton
Team: 2023-24 Montreal Canadiens
Initial Creation Date: Mar. 24, 2024
Published: Mar. 24, 2024
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
This is with the assumption that the Sharks get 1st overall
Trades
1.
MTL
  1. 2024 1st round pick (SJS)
Additional Details:
Sharks are most likely wanting to pick a Dmen, since their future forward group is actually half decent (and the 2025 draft being weak defensively). At pick 5, one of Levshunov, Parekh, Silyaev or Dickinson will be available
SJS
  1. Barron, Justin
  2. Xhekaj, Arber
  3. Xhekaj, Florian [Reserve List]
  4. 2024 1st round pick (MTL)
  5. 2025 1st round pick (CGY)
  6. 2025 3rd round pick (VAN)
Additional Details:
Habs have 5th overall
2.
MTL
  1. 2024 1st round pick (MIN)
Additional Details:
Any team with a pick between 13th and 17th overall (Minny is a placeholder as they are one of the teams that could use a LHD with PP specialty)
MIN
  1. Matheson, Michael
  2. 2024 1st round pick (WPG)
Additional Details:
Habs use this pick to draft Terik Parascak
Buyouts
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2024
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the COL
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the WSH
2025
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the PIT
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the NJD
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the DET
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
2026
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the MTL
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
21$83,500,000$70,107,083$1,170,000$4,035,000$13,392,917
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$7,850,000$7,850,000
LW, RW
UFA - 8
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$7,875,000$7,875,000
C
UFA - 7
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$6,500,000$6,500,000
RW, LW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$3,250,000$3,250,000
LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$2,900,000$2,900,000
C, LW
RFA - 4
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$5,500,000$5,500,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$1,100,000$1,100,000
LW, RW
RFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$1,700,000$1,700,000
C
UFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$3,400,000$3,400,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$835,000$835,000 (Performance Bonus$57,500$58K)
LW, RW
RFA - 3
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$775,000$775,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$950,000$950,000 (Performance Bonus$3,500,000$4M)
RW, LW
RFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$812,500$812,500
LW, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$775,000$775,000
RW, LW
RFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$3,500,000$3,500,000
RD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$1,000,000$1,000,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$1,400,000$1,400,000
LD/RD
RFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$766,667$766,667
RD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$890,000$890,000
G
RFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$867,500$867,500 (Performance Bonus$57,500$58K)
LD
RFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$420,000$420K)
LD/RD
RFA - 2
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$4,450,000$4,450,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$10,500,000$10,500,000
G
NMC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$3,362,500$3,362,500
C, RW
RFA - 3
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$762,500$762,500
RD
UFA - 1

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Mar. 24 at 5:31 p.m.
#26
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Quoting: Rob32sjsharks
The argument isn’t you don’t have the pieces, it’s that you can’t spare the pieces needed to make this viable for both clubs, you trade all those and your team is worse off and if sharks accept this deal they are worse off, it’s just not a match.


that wasnt the argument. you can read it again. thats why its stupid.

(i agree with the point you are making)
Mar. 24 at 5:33 p.m.
#27
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Quoting: drambui
im pretty sur if they offered suzuki, caufield, slaf, reinbacher, hutson, our next 3 first and ghule the sharks would dot it. Anyway this is just an obvious ridiculous argument.


Ha well I guess the Sharks would have to take that offer lol. It’s more so for the picks because if you give up all those players you’re pretty much guaranteed to finish last the next 2 years.
drambui and Rob32sjsharks liked this.
Mar. 24 at 5:34 p.m.
#28
You know nothing JS
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Quoting: JeffGorton
Arent you one of the folks that said Monahan wasnt getting a 1st? You dont seem to learn that you have no idea about value or simply ignore all context with trades. Its time NHL fans sat down and listened to Habs fans who have been proven right more often than wrong


Not all 1st are equal. And SJ would never trade quality for quantity.

As a Habs fan myself, you should try to show some humility. Most of your trades are aweful, this one included.
Mar. 24 at 5:37 p.m.
#29
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Quoting: DFinn91
Ha well I guess the Sharks would have to take that offer lol. It’s more so for the picks because if you give up all those players you’re pretty much guaranteed to finish last the next 2 years.


agreed! dont think i'll see a first overall trade in my lifetime to be honest.
Mar. 24 at 5:42 p.m.
#30
Prime Primeau
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Joined: Apr. 2023
Posts: 5,437
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Quoting: mv21227
Montreal fans said they would get a 1st for Petry, Edmundson, and then Petry again. They also said Anderson would get 1-2 1sts, David Savard would get a 1st, and some even had Jake Allen going for a 1st. Habs fans were proven wrong on all of those

Petry was worth a first after the 2021 finals. When he was bad, most of us said we would be lucky to get a second. We got a fourth and a D (who turned out to be worth more than prime Petry but that wasn’t supposed to happen).

Edmunson healthy and with term would have gotten a first. When he got injured, most of us saw him get a late second or a third and a late pick. That’s pretty spot on

Apart from the delusionnal ones, most habs fans said Petry would get a third. He got less than that but not a lot less

There was the rumor that Hughes declined a first for Anderson. Also, nobody ever said he was worth a first. We only said it would take a first to get him out of Montreal

Savard hasn’t been traded and it was reported multiple times the asking price for him was a first. Hughes didn’t want to trade him and there was nothing to proves us wrong. On the opposite, it was proved right by the asking price.

Nobody ever said Allen was getting a first, unless Campbell was coming back or Edmonton would be very deseperate. The most we said he was worth was a second and a prospect, when he was having a .930 save %. After, most of us saw him get a low round pick or a late second/third with retention. You know the rest…

We also got proven right on many trade :

First for Chiarot

First for Lekhonen (was a second and first round prospect so it’s even better)

Second for Kulak

First and third for Monahan (wich was exactly what we asked for)



However, if you look at what other teams fans were saying the return was gonna be, you can clearly see they were proven wrong in almost every case
Mar. 24 at 6:54 p.m.
#31
Hop on the Slaftrain
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Don’t touch Florian 😤
Mar. 24 at 7:08 p.m.
#32
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With Hertl gone, Cooch probably retiring, and Vlasic maybe bought out and sign w/ a contender, no 1 is left from the 2010's. They have no face of the Franchise, there's NO way they don't pick Celebrini, if they win the lotto.
Mar. 24 at 7:56 p.m.
#33
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Joined: Jul. 2018
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Quoting: dgibb10
I said NJD wouldn't pay a 1st for Monahan because he is too slow and doesn't fill a need
I said that there is no way a fringe playoff team offers an unprotected 1st for Monahan
I said Monahan wouldn't return a 1st+

No team is trading celebrini.

let alone for a collection of spare parts.

The historical value of a 1st overall is equivalent to 4th overall+5th overall combined.

Now tell me, would you trade your 5th overall pick for Arber Xhekaj and a contender's 1st?


Simple as this
No team is trading celebrini.
Mar. 24 at 8:18 p.m.
#34
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Joined: Nov. 2017
Posts: 3,229
Likes: 2,165
Quoting: JeffGorton
Those pick value charts always take the average value of the pick. No context between how strong a draft is. Reality is, the difference between Celebrini and Parekh for example is much smaller than traditional difference between 1st overall and 5th. These charts also dont take into consideration the potential of a player during the draft discussions. They just take the data the how many NHL players come from this pick and create a value for it. In you draft in the top 10, you arent drafting for just a bog standard NHL player, you are drafting who you believe will be the best NHL player and for many teams, based on the positions of need. Those values arent taken into consideration when calculating a picks value.

An example of the pick chart not working is the Sharks making a trade with the Yotes in 2022. The trade was 27, 34,and 45 for 11. Sharks ended up getting essentially a late 2nd in extra value but got smoked in the trade because they couldve had Denton Mateychuk, Rutger McGroarty or Jonathan Lekkerimaki with that pick instead of the bums they drafted. The pick chart would say the Sharks won that trade. Everyone else says they lost it very badly.

This trade i proposed gives the sharks 4 things

a top 5 pick to draft a forward of slightly lesser value (Catton over Celebrini isnt that large of a gap) or a Dman like Parekh
a #4/#5 D man right now (Xhekaj has been on the 2nd pair for months now and is actually succeeding there with Savard)
A former 1st rounder with NHL experience in Barron
And a late 1st the next year

The Sharks have 1 future D man on their roster in Shakir Mukhamadullin. Theyll be garbage next year as well giving them another top 5 pick. (There is 1 Dman projected to go top 10 next year and the drop off for Dmen after Hensler is crazy).

Celebrini isnt a franchise changing player. Hes amazing but the gap in potential between him and Parekh is much smaller than then gap between a top 5 forward in 2025 and a Dman in 2025. Argubaly, there are 2 players just as good as him in Hagens and Martone. Add in Misa, Frondell, McQueen and Ryabkin, youve got 6 elite forwards


I think people are underselling Celebrini because he wasnt sold as a franchise guy before the season began. His production in college this year rivals that of Fantilli's last year on a team that doesn't have anywhere near the talent that Michigan had last year, all while being 8 months younger. Is he a Bedard? No. But I think if Fantilli and him were in the same draft class, their draft stocks would be almost identical, with Fantilli probably having an edge due to size. But, I will agree that the top 2-5 is pretty close together at this point. In terms of overall value, I think the package is there. But, I'm always a believer in the saying that whoever gets the best player in the deal wins the trade, and the conditions around the Flames pick make it a little bit more of a risk than I would like to take if I was trading out of 1OA.
Mar. 24 at 9:20 p.m.
#35
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Quoting: jpsnow13
Not all 1st are equal. And SJ would never trade quality for quantity.

As a Habs fan myself, you should try to show some humility. Most of your trades are aweful, this one included.


Quantity for quality is not always a no! Sometimes it’s absolutely necessary as in the 11th OA trade to Arizona a d the Meier trade, but right now sharks are in need of quality over quantity
Mar. 24 at 10:00 p.m.
#36
You know nothing JS
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Quoting: Rob32sjsharks
Quantity for quality is not always a no! Sometimes it’s absolutely necessary as in the 11th OA trade to Arizona a d the Meier trade, but right now sharks are in need of quality over quantity


Agreed but there's a world of difference in value between a 1st OA, a top 15 and a UFA.
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