So, I decided to simulate the lottery five times, and use the fifth simulation as the basis for the 2024 draft order as I think the outcome here has a pretty large effect on the Sharks' offseason. And the outcome was, as expected, negative. The top 6 was the following
1. Arizona
2. Columbus
3. Sharks
4. Chicago
5. Anaheim
6. Montreal
The Sharks have one glaring hole in their prospect pool, and that is RHD. If they were to drop to third, and assuming Celebrini & Levshunov have been picked #1 and 2#, I think the Sharks should seriously consider trading down. While drafting a player like Demidov or Lindstrom is tempting, if there is a deal to be made it should be considered. I know some people always say "Pick BPA, and then trade that player for what you actually need", but teams essentially never trade what looks like a top pairing RHD. A lot of Montreal fans seem eager to trade up (and actually seem willing to give up some pieces to do so), and if they deal would look like below THINK I want the Sharks to take it, and then pick one of Dickinson/Buium/Parekh with 6th overall.
UFA'S
A lot of Sharks fans seem allergic to making any moves that would improve the team. I disagree with this approach. While I don't want the Sharks to get good (we probably need at least one more top-3 pick), I don't think another disastrous season like the one we just had would be positive. It would a) negatively impact the development of our younger players b) hinder the development of a positive culture.
Teuvo could play anywhere in the top-9, and probably won't tie up too much cap space. With Hertl gone and Couture's career in jeopardy, I also think a veteran player committed to the improvement of the team would be beneficial. JVR is just a solid vet to shore up the forward group, and hopefully he might fetch something at the deadline. His contract is a little bit on the higher side, which is probably necessary to convince him to agree to a 1-year deal. Similar to Tarasenko last year.
PROSPECTS
Regarding Will Smith, right now I have him in the NHL, but I really don't think there is a wrong approach here. He could benefit from the lighter NCAA schedule, but at the same time the things he needs to work on aren't really present in the NCAA the way they are in the NHL and no D+1 player has ever put up his production without being in the NHL the next season. I really think it's up to Smith at this point. The crazy thing here is definitely Musty. I'm just not sure what to do with him. He's scoring at just below 2 PP/G and looking at him it's clear that he doesn't have much to learn in the OHL anymore. But of course he can't play in the AHL so he has to play in the NHL if you don't want him dominating teenagers for another year. While he might not stick for the entire season, I could definitely see him starting the year with the Sharks.
I think these moves move the team in the right direction, without risking the chance of picking first overall next year.
I would replace Benning with a younger Dman that has a longer future here, maybe not JVR and have someone else, or put Bords as LW 3 and Kostin as RW3 but I like it!
Gonna be honest here. This draft is pretty deep up to about 13, and outside of Celebrini and Levshunov all of the guys behind them could go in any order depending on how each team views them.
What I'm getting at is you're not getting that package to move down from 3OA to 6OA. Maybe a team further down would give up serious capital, but I'm talking about moving from outside the top 10 to get to 3. Other than something like that happening, you're not returning 3 extra assets to move up 3 spots.
I think you're overestimating how much Montreal would want to move from 6th to 3rd. Especially considering how the tiers of prospects is shaping up.
Quoting: nativewulf
Gonna be honest here. This draft is pretty deep up to about 13, and outside of Celebrini and Levshunov all of the guys behind them could go in any order depending on how each team views them.
What I'm getting at is you're not getting that package to move down from 3OA to 6OA. Maybe a team further down would give up serious capital, but I'm talking about moving from outside the top 10 to get to 3. Other than something like that happening, you're not returning 3 extra assets to move up 3 spots.
Moving into the top-3 of any draft would be expensive. I actually based this on proposals from Montreal fans (one here earlier today, and one I saw one twitter a couple of days ago) with really the only difference being that I removed a prospect going to the Sharks and instead included a 2nd rounder.
I would replace Benning with a younger Dman that has a longer future here, maybe not JVR and have someone else, or put Bords as LW 3 and Kostin as RW3 but I like it!
Also want to see Guschin have a chance
Hasn't Kostin been playing LW since he joined us? Other than that I agree, we really have too many B-prospects that deserve a shot in the show to fit them all. I guess one possibility would be not signing JVR and instead including Guschin, but I don't think Quinn would appreciate that many rookies lol
Moving into the top-3 of any draft would be expensive. I actually based this on a proposals from Montreal fans (one here earlier today, and one I saw one twitter a couple of days ago) with really the only difference being that I removed a prospect going to the Sharks that they included in theirs.
That's fine, but all indications are that Montreal aren't really looking to move up in the draft. They're more likely to stay put and try to add another young high-upside NHLer.
Moving into the top-3 of any draft would be expensive. I actually based this on a proposals from Montreal fans (one here earlier today, and one I saw one twitter a couple of days ago) with really the only difference being that I removed a prospect going to the Sharks that they included in theirs.
No offense to the fan that posted that, but that's a bad proposal. I'd love to hear the reasoning for paying that much to move up 3 spots in a draft where at 6OA you might be able to get someone like Eiserman, Silayev, Buium, Parekh, Catton, or Dickinson all depending on who falls. Moving into the top 3 is expensive, but not that expensive when the draft is deep at a couple of positions all in the top 15.
I agree with all this, they're prudent moves if Sharks fail to land Celebrini.
My gut tells me that Grier reaches for Lindstrom at #3 (assuming Celebrini and Levshunov are taken). He's the overall good physical player in all areas that Grier wants to have for the team, which is great and I'd love to have him on the Sharks, but I don't think he offers enough to justify a #3 overall selection.
Moving into the top-3 of any draft would be expensive. I actually based this on proposals from Montreal fans (one here earlier today, and one I saw one twitter a couple of days ago) with really the only difference being that I removed a prospect going to the Sharks and instead included a 2nd rounder.
Think those were trades for the 1st OA not the 3rd. But yea this draft you would be lucky to get the 21st and not Barron unless they just want to dump him (doubt it)
I agree with all this, they're prudent moves if Sharks fail to land Celebrini.
My gut tells me that Grier reaches for Lindstrom at #3 (assuming Celebrini and Levshunov are taken). He's the overall good physical player in all areas that Grier wants to have for the team, which is great and I'd love to have him on the Sharks, but I don't think he offers enough to justify a #3 overall selection.
He has a lot of upside but yea I’d want him at 6/7th OA not 3rd
I disagree with your premise that it would be a nightmare to drop to #3 because I also disagree that your only glaring hole in the prospect pool is at RhD. I'm not sure that Mukhamadullin is the #1 LhD of your future, so you could do very well to take Zeev Buium at #3. Or if you a locked onto a RhD, there are those who say Anton Silayev is as good a prospect as Artyom Levshunov. And as deep as the Sharks' forward prospect pool is, you might still hit a home run with any of Demidov, Lindstrom, Catton or Eiserman.
How are the sharks fans about Zetterlund ? Could be a great fit in Mtl and Montreal could give you RD need in Barron and ++ (B prospect and ok draft pick) ? Just want to know is that guy a untouchable or not cause man 5,11 225 jezz he’s large and can provide offence
No offense to the fan that posted that, but that's a bad proposal. I'd love to hear the reasoning for paying that much to move up 3 spots in a draft where at 6OA you might be able to get someone like Eiserman, Silayev, Buium, Parekh, Catton, or Dickinson all depending on who falls. Moving into the top 3 is expensive, but not that expensive when the draft is deep at a couple of positions all in the top 15.
See this is how it works. when Montreal wants to trade up Its a swap of picks, some scraps and they dump Armia on SJ. When Montreal wants to move down 3 picks its a past 1st plus 3 more future firsts
Think those were trades for the 1st OA not the 3rd. But yea this draft you would be lucky to get the 21st and not Barron unless they just want to dump him (doubt it)
I interpreted it as a trade for 3rd overall for the teams most likely to pick 3rd. But 2nd or 3rd that doesn’t matter - if the Sharks pick 2nd they wont trade their pick. It was definitely not the 1st overall pick. https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/820854
How are the sharks fans about Zetterlund ? Could be a great fit in Mtl and Montreal could give you RD need in Barron and ++ (B prospect and ok draft pick) ? Just want to know is that guy a untouchable or not cause man 5,11 225 jezz he’s large and can provide offence
He is stout and still fast, very good shot and his age makes him an ideal fit for the sharks, and as much as sharks need a young top 4 RD, they also don’t have much in the way of top 6 RW either so I would say he is close to untouchable.
I disagree with your premise that it would be a nightmare to drop to #3 because I also disagree that your only glaring hole in the prospect pool is at RhD. I'm not sure that Mukhamadullin is the #1 LhD of your future, so you could do very well to take Zeev Buium at #3. Or if you a locked onto a RhD, there are those who say Anton Silayev is as good a prospect as Artyom Levshunov. And as deep as the Sharks' forward prospect pool is, you might still hit a home run with any of Demidov, Lindstrom, Catton or Eiserman.
Even if we draft 3rd we still could fill a need… but having one of the worst seasons in team history and seeing our captain likely play his last game due to injury, and our best players all moved it’s a bitter pill if the best thing we get out of that is a prospect with holes who is a project.
This kind of season pain would be a lot less rough with Celebrini as the reward, Levshunov is a close 2nd but the rest of the top 10 are decent ceilings but all have bust potential.
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