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Leafs 2023 2024 Season Discussion Part 7 - Shambles

Apr. 29 at 8:37 p.m.
#226
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Edited Apr. 29 at 9:14 p.m.
Quoting: LeafsFanForSomeReason
Going "all in" in FA is incredibly dumb. An unbelievable amount of bad money is gifted to mid players who don't deserve it and BT is one of the worst offenders. There's actually a pretty solid field of guys who fill needs for us this year. He needs to not get stuck in a bidding war for who he decides is "our guy" but rather submit fair offers to the lot and see who takes.


The issue is TOR does not have the assets to go get anyone come 2024-2025 unless we use the 2025 or 2026 assets.

Brad kind of has no choice at this point

As long as we dont see some crazy long term deals I dont mind slight overpays on short deals

Rn through looking this teams got the following (not set in stone but u get it)

Knies-Matthews-Marner
Robertson-JT-Nylander
McMann-Holmberg-Jarnkrok
Dewar-Kampf-Reaves

Dcore is where the ? lie

Rielly-?
McCabe-Liligren
Benoit-Timmins

Woll
?

They have around 20m to spend

To me they need 2 nice RD, a backup or tandem guy for Woll, and to explore 1 or 2 guys at forward


I think 2024-2025 should be a setup year unless you can trade Marner.

Prepare for JT's departure with his eventual replacement and then sign 2 nice Dman for the Dcore and a stop gap tandem guy


This summer I say go get Stephenson, Demelo, Stolarz on long term deals and maybe like Domi and Bertuzzi sign some other guys on 1 year deals
Apr. 29 at 8:58 p.m.
#227
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Edited Apr. 29 at 9:05 p.m.
Quoting: palhal
Yeah, the Leafs will be all in...spending to the cap, like so many other teams. Is Trevling up for the job? By the way, the Leafs don't have a 2nd, 3rd, 4th rounder in 2026 draft. You're right about 11m Tavares being gone in 25/25, Hopefully the Leafs get some cost efficient players like Niemela, Cowan, Webber, Minten playing above their contracts. Guess the other question is Mitch (and his cap) a Leaf after next season.


Focus for sure next year should be revamp the Dcore and if you have enough go for some 1 year deals with forwards again

Find a tandem guy to for Woll like Stolarz, Reimer, Brossoit, etc.


As then you allow for us to allow for space should Greybokin, Cowen, Minten, etc really start knocking on the door.

2025-2026 revamp the forward group significantly and if necessary trade for a goalie
Apr. 29 at 9:34 p.m.
#228
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Rare stinker for the Knights tonight. Simpson has not been good but the whole team looks gassed.

Not surprised. Back to back game where your top 3 D played 35 mins each due to an injury and having 3 rookies dressed will do that to yah
Apr. 29 at 9:36 p.m.
#229
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Quoting: Random2152
Rare stinker for the Knights tonight. Simpson has not been good but the whole team looks gassed.

Not surprised. Back to back game where your top 3 D played 35 mins each due to an injury and having 3 rookies dressed will do that to yah


Anything for Cowan?
Apr. 29 at 9:37 p.m.
#230
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Quoting: LeafsFanForSomeReason
Anything for Cowan?


Whole team bad. He's been fine. Had his chances. Not dominating by any means.

He really needs to shoot more though. Defers way too often. Takes too long to make the decision and is forced into a pass. They don't respect his shot threat
Apr. 29 at 9:42 p.m.
#231
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Quoting: aadoyle
I would be more concerned with a 1/14 PP then Sammy lul

Or a 50% PK

Special teams and this teams inability to create offense is what's killing them not the goalie

TBL series last year be the example

Game 2 7-2
Game 3 4-3
Game 4 5-4
Game 6 2-1

PK 73% PP 25%

So far this series TOR goals

GM 1: 1
GM 2: 3 (Ullmark)
GM 3: 2
GM 4: 1

PK 53% PP 7%

Noticing the problem vs last year lul


I am using a 25% PP and 75% PK as average. With this, the score in the 4 games would have been.
Bos -- Tor
4.3 to 1.8
1.5 to 2.8
1.8 to 3.3 (there would not have been a BOS EN goal since the Leafs should have been ahead.
2.8 to 1.8

So really, Sammy has probably cost the Leafs 2 to 3 goals. Special Teams have cost the Leafs about 6 goals.
Apr. 29 at 9:50 p.m.
#232
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Quoting: Messier99
I am using a 25% PP and 75% PK as average. With this, the score in the 4 games would have been.
Bos -- Tor
4.3 to 1.8
1.5 to 2.8
1.8 to 3.3 (there would not have been a BOS EN goal since the Leafs should have been ahead.
2.8 to 1.8

So really, Sammy has probably cost the Leafs 2 to 3 goals. Special Teams have cost the Leafs about 6 goals.


Your numbers are a bit off.
Avg is 80-20, among playoff teams its usually skews a touch higher
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Apr. 29 at 9:59 p.m.
#233
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Quoting: Messier99
I am using a 25% PP and 75% PK as average. With this, the score in the 4 games would have been.
Bos -- Tor
4.3 to 1.8
1.5 to 2.8
1.8 to 3.3 (there would not have been a BOS EN goal since the Leafs should have been ahead.
2.8 to 1.8

So really, Sammy has probably cost the Leafs 2 to 3 goals. Special Teams have cost the Leafs about 6 goals.


Quoting: Random2152
Your numbers are a bit off.
Avg is 80-20, among playoff teams its usually skews a touch higher


But either way would probs be a 2-2 series so that would be at least something heck maybe we would have been up 3-1 who knows as I believe we had 2-3 PP's to start game 4 and if our PK was better maybe BOS would not have got that PP goal
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Apr. 29 at 10:00 p.m.
#234
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Okay now that Tampa is done I've seen the future. This is what happened:

Coop gets fired
Marner gets traded. Return is not great
Leafs fire Keefe for Coop. Babcock esq contract
Leafs sign Stamkos to fill Marners slot. 3@7.3aav
Apr. 29 at 10:04 p.m.
#235
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Quoting: Random2152
Okay now that Tampa is done I've seen the future. This is what happened:

Coop gets fired
Marner gets traded. Return is not great
Leafs fire Keefe for Coop. Babcock esq contract
Leafs sign Stamkos to fill Marners slot. 37.3aav


I kind of have it a bit different but similar

Sullivan and Penguins decide to part ways (Like Maurice with WPG)
Keefe gets fired goes to Pitt and takes most of the assistants with him

Now the one diff is this

Marner stays but 0 extension talks ride out the contract year fever and who knows might be the first 120 point season in the Matthews era

Leafs prepare for JT's departure by signing one of Stephenson or Lindholm
Apr. 29 at 10:05 p.m.
#236
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This might be the unpopular opinion, but I feel like trading Marner now if the Leafs lose is kinda silly. Like I'm as frustrated as anyone with him, but the return will not be good and I know there's thirst for change in the core 4, but Tavares, who is the weakest link, has one year left... the change will come.

Maybe just settle for a new coach this offseason
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Apr. 29 at 10:07 p.m.
#237
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Quoting: LeafsFanForSomeReason
This might be the unpopular opinion, but I feel like trading Marner now if the Leafs lose is kinda silly. Like I'm as frustrated as anyone with him, but the return will not be good and I know there's thirst for change in the core 4, but Tavares, who is the weakest link, has one year left... the change will come.

Maybe just settle for a new coach this offseason


Im kind of in agreement and also contract year fever is a thing

Like last time he had a contract year fever 94 points and in playoffs scored a crazy penalty shot goal and blocked a bunch of Marchand shots with his face

Unless someone offers a stupid good deal that is basically a Leafs robbery just keep and see especially under a new system. Cause who knows maybe we see 35 goals and 85 assists

Maybe Berube, Sullivan, whoever can fix things
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Apr. 29 at 10:09 p.m.
#238
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Marner to LA for Dubois makes more sense than I'm confortable admitting.

LA retains 1.5mil, Leafs retain 5 451 500.

The money works. If they think Dubois can be rehab'd...
Apr. 29 at 10:19 p.m.
#239
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Quoting: aadoyle
But either way would probs be a 2-2 series so that would be at least something heck maybe we would have been up 3-1 who knows as I believe we had 2-3 PP's to start game 4 and if our PK was better maybe BOS would not have got that PP goal


Yup. Note that Game 3 was a bigger win for Leafs than game 2 - providing PK and PP would have held their own.
So a series tied 2-2 would we just with functioning special teams.
Any other factor (better in net, no Matthews//Nylander injuries would likely have Leafs ahead 3-1.
If Ifs and buts were candies and nuts, we'd all have a merry Christmas - so we are where we are.
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Apr. 29 at 10:49 p.m.
#240
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Quoting: aadoyle
Yea didnt Kuemper win with a 0.902 SV with the Avs 2 years ago or was that Hill with VGK.

Like this playoffs were seeing guys who were in the Vezina convo **** the bed and guys who were awful in reg have amazing playoffs

Connor Hellybuyck is gonna win the Vezina but man he's been rough to watch these playoffs and even got Dangle quoted


The thing im more concerned and I think we all should be

Team is struggling to score and special teams be a dumpster fire


You can win without a name brand goalie, but you need better thab
Quoting: LeafsFanForSomeReason
I mean, 3 of the last 8 conference finalists have had a 3GAA or worse (4 if we drop it to 2.9). It's not ideal, but... It's certainly not insurmountable.


But how many cup winning goalies have had a GAA of 3+? Sammy isn't good enough
Apr. 29 at 10:52 p.m.
#241
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Quoting: aadoyle
The issue is TOR does not have the assets to go get anyone come 2024-2025 unless we use the 2025 or 2026 assets.

Brad kind of has no choice at this point

As long as we dont see some crazy long term deals I dont mind slight overpays on short deals

Rn through looking this teams got the following (not set in stone but u get it)

Knies-Matthews-Marner
Robertson-JT-Nylander
McMann-Holmberg-Jarnkrok
Dewar-Kampf-Reaves

Dcore is where the ? lie

Rielly-?
McCabe-Liligren
Benoit-Timmins

Woll
?

They have around 20m to spend

To me they need 2 nice RD, a backup or tandem guy for Woll, and to explore 1 or 2 guys at forward


I think 2024-2025 should be a setup year unless you can trade Marner.

Prepare for JT's departure with his eventual replacement and then sign 2 nice Dman for the Dcore and a stop gap tandem guy


This summer I say go get Stephenson, Demelo, Stolarz on long term deals and maybe like Domi and Bertuzzi sign some other guys on 1 year deals


I would rather Matt Roy, I bet Demelo falls off quicker than anyone expects.
Apr. 30 at 12:20 a.m.
#242
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I kind of miss when Toronto was sort of bad occasionally because you could look at something like this and make bets.

Not sure we're in a position to do that now but boy would that ever interesting.

Actually the Habs are in a great spot to do this. Coots, Dubois, Huberdeau would all be decent bets there
Apr. 30 at 1:16 a.m.
#243
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Quoting: Random2152
I kind of miss when Toronto was sort of bad occasionally because you could look at something like this and make bets.

Not sure we're in a position to do that now but boy would that ever interesting.

Actually the Habs are in a great spot to do this. Coots, Dubois, Huberdeau would all be decent bets there


If they move Marner or if PHI is open to ret I could see it
Apr. 30 at 8:04 a.m.
#244
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Quoting: Messier99
I am using a 25% PP and 75% PK as average. With this, the score in the 4 games would have been.
Bos -- Tor
4.3 to 1.8
1.5 to 2.8
1.8 to 3.3 (there would not have been a BOS EN goal since the Leafs should have been ahead.
2.8 to 1.8

So really, Sammy has probably cost the Leafs 2 to 3 goals. Special Teams have cost the Leafs about 6 goals.


Sammy isn't the biggest problem but he not good enough
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Apr. 30 at 9:47 a.m.
#245
Rip
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Listened to Kyper and Bourne from yesterday. Keefe's words with the media were stark. He legit thinks they have played good enough to win. The guys just clueless
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Apr. 30 at 11:29 a.m.
#246
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Quoting: RipNasty
Sammy isn't the biggest problem but he not good enough


Over 4 games he owes us 2 goals.
It's fine lmao
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Apr. 30 at 11:41 a.m.
#247
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Quoting: Random2152
Over 4 games he owes us 2 goals.
It's fine lmao


That's 2 goals too many. It's not good enough. We may need to win a game 1-0 to come back here. Sammy isn't good enough. His time is done in TO. Maybe the NHL
Apr. 30 at 11:56 a.m.
#248
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Quoting: RipNasty
That's 2 goals too many. It's not good enough. We may need to win a game 1-0 to come back here. Sammy isn't good enough. His time is done in TO. Maybe the NHL


Sammy is not done in the NHL lmao
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Apr. 30 at 12:15 p.m.
#249
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Quoting: Random2152
Sammy is not done in the NHL lmao


Yeah that was over the top but he's done with TO.
Apr. 30 at 1:37 p.m.
#250
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Quoting: Random2152
Over 4 games he owes us 2 goals.
It's fine lmao


So wait wait wait

Of the 14 goals BOS scored this series Sammy owes us 2 back.....

And people are making it as if he's he bigger issue

How much does the PP/PK owe us?
 
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