Ok lets run the scenario

Shanahan gets fired (obviously, new CEO at MLSE)
Keefe gets fired
Tre essentially gains full control of the roster this offseason

> Tre calls in Marner and his agent in to discuss options
> Tre starts by gauging what Marner will want on his next contract if they were to extend him, Marner says something like 12M x 4 years.
> Tre says I can't do that, the highest I'm willing to go is ~9.75M, proceeding to make his case on why.
> Marner says that won't work, I'll get more as a free agent.
> Tre says ok well then lets explore that option then. If you think you can get more elsewhere we can work on getting you that deal now. Is there anywhere you would be interested in waiving your NTC to play at.
> Marner lists 3-5 teams.
> After July 1st when names like Guentzel, Reinhart, etc are signed/extended, plus Marner's bonus is paid, Tre starts negotiating with those 3-5 teams
> When he finds a deal he likes he gives that team permission to negotiate with Marner on an extension
> A trade is made and all parties are happy

And with fans/media/team mates/management are making it obvious that Marner is not in the Leafs long term plans, any team that desires him can and will wait until July 1st 2025, unless Marner gets a cash dump trade with zero value. Or requests a trade (unlikely).

Viewing another ACGM who tried to gauge other teams situation on fitting Marner, the LA Kings is the only team I believe would make Marner say yes. Because Marner loves Hollywood and the AllStar fame and attention.

I mean they fire the coach and bring in a new guy and see if he gets different results. It's seems obvious what's gonna happen. They can't make major changes until Tavares and Marner contracts are up next off-season.

Yes, blaming Marner on the playoffs is forgetting the other team's coach has made an effort and team plan on how to stop Marner (double team/hack/slash/grab him all game long) then he gets frustrated and turns the puck over.

Now having a coach who can counter act that game plan would help, it's obvious Keefe has been getting out coached every playoff year.

Marner says no. He got a NMC for this very purpose and is content to play out this contract and select his next destination and contract without any internal constraints.

maybe im in the minority but if im trading for marner i dont want it to come with an extension in place. id rather see how he fits on my roster first before discussing contract. the huberdeau contract should be a warning for this

You're right because teams always wait until July 1st the following year. Tkachuk could have easily signed his QO and walked to wherever he wanted, Same with Dubois, DeBrincat, and Meier. Why would New York trade for Bo Horvat when Vancouver clearly wasn't going to extend him?

If a team wants to compete next year and think that Marner can help as long as he's out of the cancerous Toronto spotlight (which is almost certainly what teams believe) then they will take the initiative.

Completely disagree with you on where Marner would waive here. Maybe yes he would waive to LA, but that's almost certainly not the only team. I would not be remotely surprised if the media and fans don't get to him this summer and he just wants out of it.

Marner getting to pick where he'd potentially go does likely limit what the Leafs could reasonably expect for a return, but I think you're wrong in suggesting there won't be a GM wanting to make a splash this summer that wouldn't give up some assets to make their team better immediately and then have the potential carrot of being able to offer an 8th year if Marner's camp is now open to that idea. GMs don't often wait for a player to hit UFA status if they can land the player they want now, especially if that GM is starting to feel their seat get warm.

Ok so he says no and then what? He just holds the Leafs hostage and gets obliterated by the fanbase and media? He's already clearly being pushed out by the fanbase, do you think they are going to sympathize with him when they find out what he's asking for?

It's not like Tavares where he will probably agree to like a 50% pay cut

Name me one team who would have interest in Marner, have the trading assets to acquire him, has money for Marner and Marner actually would like.

99% says, no team (maybe a reunion with Dubas and a trade to the Pens).

All the players you listed do not own a NMC, so it's an apple to oranges argument.

That is absolutely a fair POV but any extension would be made after a trade anyways, when it is signed is less relevant. Gauging what he is looking for in his next deal could either lead to a reality check for Marner or narrow down trade options

if im a GM of a contedning team and i acuire marner, and he isnt a 90 point two way winger for me, i would let him walk in FA. imo he is very worth the risk to pay big assets for as a rental but i wouldnt commit long term until i can see that he can have success in whatever system my team employs.

worst case scenerio is you overpay for a 2nd line winger for a year and then get $11 million in cap space in the 2025 off season

Now a good team organization would kill all the negative media on day 1 after the Leafs loss.

Also when the team asks Marner about the future and he says no trade and wants to stay, the team should keep it a secret and move on rather then lingering or pressuring him (which the NHLPA would get involved, no means no), which would create a media headache for months, like Me-lander's contract holdout.

This isn't Marner's first time, you forget the back to back 0 goal playoffs, or years ago when Nylander was the biggest scapegoat for being a heartless playoff floater (still is and he got a contract renewal lol).

That's his right with the NMC. Treliving can ask, and Marner can refuse. Also, thinking the Leafs are going to power play Marner will just alienate other players, like Matthews to signing there. These decisions aren't made in a vacuum like fans would like to believe. Treliving goes out of his way to get Marner to waive him NMC isn't going to be met with enthusiasm from other players.

Are you Marner? How do you know where he would actually like to go?

Here are some teams that would probably have interest, have the assets and can make the money work depending on the trade

NYI, Seattle, LA, Nashville, Vancouver, Winnipeg

LMAO what? Keefe jumped on the grenade the other day but Marner's play ever year in the playoffs has been borderline non-existent. You can't stop the media from talking about it, you can only attempt to redirect the rage.

Last year they got rid of Dubas, had they not done that one of the core 4 almost certainly would have been traded. But Tre just arrived and was told to make their current roster a contender with a bag of spare change. This year Tre will get his chance to rework the lineup how he wants.

But sure keep bashing your head against the wall hoping for different results. At the end of the day the Leafs aren't my favorite team, they are simply my local team, so I really don't care

Marner wants to be a Leaf, end of story.

It is his right. I am not debating that. My scenario is not Leafs management forcing Marner to waive somewhere, it's Marner holding the team hostage by refusing to lower his contract demands and also refusing to waive anywhere. The Leafs aren't going to strongarm him into waiving. They will approach the situation openly but they aren't going to cave on contract negotiations on a guy who has no-showed every year when it counts. They will simply present him with options.

We'll see

So in one message you say "do I know what is going thru Marner's mind" but in this message you are allowed to state you know what's going thru Dubas and Trev minds.

weird.

Most pending UFAs with NMCs "hold their team hostage." It's a negotiating tactic for obvious reasons. Marner is entitled to that as well. Outside of something catastrophic happening like career threatening injury in his last season, he'll get plenty of competitive offers.

I'm sure Mitch is sitting at his computer desk right now reading all the media and press about him, LOL

Rich and famous people do not care to get involved in the online trolling of fans and media.

Leaf fans logic, they'll just healthy scratch Marner for 60 games until he waives his NMC for the betterment of the team>?

What part of that statement did I say anything about knowing what's going through either of their minds? Literally all of your statements speak in absolutes. That implies you know exactly what Marner is thinking. None of mine speak in absolutes, that means I am using logic to infer what is probably going on.

On top of that the only thing in that post that could remotely be considered me inserting my opinion is that Dubas would have changed something in the core 4. But considering he got fired because he went above Shanahan and asked for more power in the Org that is a fair guess. Me stating Treliving will want to rework the the lineup how he wants is me saying Treliving will attempt to do his freaking job, which is build a winning roster

In free agency? Sure but lets say he wants 12M x 4 years in Toronto, do you think someone would offer that in free agency? Probably not.