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Klefbom Kase: RAIF vs PJ

Jul. 31, 2017 at 9:08 p.m.
#26
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DavidBooth, tadhockey, sloofoot, boltscharge, IceGirl
Jul. 31, 2017 at 9:12 p.m.
#27
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?
Jul. 31, 2017 at 9:15 p.m.
#28
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Klefbom isn't top ten tho Confused
Jul. 31, 2017 at 9:21 p.m.
#29
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Wait, so do i say why i think he isn't top 10 now?
Jul. 31, 2017 at 9:21 p.m.
#30
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Quoting: rangersandislesfan
Wait, so do i say why i think he isn't top 10 now?


yes
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Jul. 31, 2017 at 9:23 p.m.
#31
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Quoting: boltscharge17
Quoting: rangersandislesfan
Wait, so do i say why i think he isn't top 10 now?


yes


ok
Jul. 31, 2017 at 9:23 p.m.
#32
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Quoting: rangersandislesfan
Wait, so do i say why i think he isn't top 10 now?


the floor is yours RAIF. let the debate begin
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Jul. 31, 2017 at 9:50 p.m.
#33
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Here's why i think Oscar Klefbom isn't an NHL top 10 defenseman:

Well the 1st thing i'm going to look at is stats. As much as i don't only look at stats, they are part of my opinions in hockey ... as much as stats show that he is a #1 d-man, they do not say he's a top 10 defenseman in the league ... if you look at HERO charts, his stats are about even with the 'average #1 defenseman' stats. Which likely means top 15, and since his stats are a bit better than that, they show that he's maybe a #13 or #14 D in the whole league.
Now Klefbom is top 30 in shot blocks, but is lower than players like Andrew MacDonald, Francois Beauchimen, etc, which is not to say that those guys aren't good players, but those guys would not be considered top 10 NHL defensemen, so shot blocks don't tell everything. Now this says he's a great player, but once again, not a top 10 D in the league.
He was a +7, but on a top 10 team in the league, and it's not a great +/-. Yes, a good one, but not a great one.
His Corsi for % is around 50% ... pretty average. Where a lot of the great players have better Corsi for %.
This year he had an oZS% of just over 50%, which, if i am correct, is pretty average for the NHL.
This year he had over double the giveaways he had takeaways, which is also not great.
Then back to the +/- ... in his overall career he's a -24, which isn't great even when he wasn't on a very good team.
Cam Talbot had a .927 even strength save percentage, but the team had a .909 save percentage when Klefbom is on the ice ... Laurent Brossoit, the backup, had a .932 even strength save percentage, and as much as Jonas Gustavsson's wasn't great, he, like Brossoit, played less than 10 games ... Cam Talbot played over 70. Which shows that Edmonton's save percentage was better when Klefbom wasn't on the ice than it was when Klefbom was on the ice.
In the playoffs, he had a -2.
So as much as Klefbom is a #1 defenseman, i still don't think he's top 10 in the league. Because there are at least 10 guys i'd put ahead of him. Let's think ... in no order: Doughty, Karlsson, Burns, Hedman, Josi, Giordano, McDonagh, Ekman-Larsson, Ekblad, Keith, Suter, Weber, Subban, and the list goes on and on. i think at least 10 of those guys would go ahead of Oscar Klefbom ... also Letang, Werenski, etc.
So yes, i think all these things show that he's a great player, but i don't they show that he's quite a top 10 defenseman in the league.
Now i believe you can tell me why you think he is.
Jul. 31, 2017 at 10:25 p.m.
#34
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The jury now calls phillyjabroni to the stand
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Jul. 31, 2017 at 10:31 p.m.
#35
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(https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1U5gF9iypiqQ4sfNiwI0XEpaWRCYiSQ9ri5cQqUIwKxg/edit?usp=sharing)

This google doc examines every HERO chart for every defensemen that you labeled better than Klefbom. Note that he is better than 4 defensemen that you ranked higher than him, with Drew Doughty and Erik Karlsson being exceptions due to their higher TOI. He is around 6-8 on HERO rankings per the sheet.

+/- is the very ineffective way to tell how well a player does. Playoff metrics mean nothing to a player's talent.

(http://hockeyviz.com/player/klefbos93/EDM/1617)

These graphs identify that when Oskar Klefbom is on the ice, the Edmonton Oilers visibly take more shots when Klefbom is on the ice. While Klefbom might allow more shots, he plays around the league average of TOI versus top-six forwards and playing a substantial amount of more time against the top paring defensemen, which is plausible to lead to more shots getting thru.

oZS% is irrelevant when talking about individual status.

(https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_SgY5SHEPySR0gQNzQs4ZybowDSZat7y55iEWEi2ank/edit?usp=sharing)

This a Google doc of WAR rankings. Notice how Klefbom is 3rd. If your points that Edmonton's save percentage is better, wouldn't the WAR Model correlate to your contention?

Comparing Klefbom shots suppressed compared to MacDonald and Beauchimen, the two players you mentioned, Klefbom is in the 6th percentile of Shotsup, while MacDonald is league average, and Beauchimin is in the 2nd percentile.
Jul. 31, 2017 at 10:34 p.m.
#36
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remind me to never debate with PhillyJabroni EVER
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Jul. 31, 2017 at 10:40 p.m.
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Now am i supposed to reply to phillyjabroni's comment or not?
Jul. 31, 2017 at 10:41 p.m.
#38
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Quoting: rangersandislesfan
Now am i supposed to reply to phillyjabroni's comment or not?


yes, you may rebuttal.
Jul. 31, 2017 at 10:42 p.m.
#39
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Quoting: Pasta88Sauce
remind me to never debate with PhillyJabroni EVER


I'm going to take that as a compliment.

giphy.gif
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Jul. 31, 2017 at 10:56 p.m.
#40
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Quoting: phillyjabroni
(https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1U5gF9iypiqQ4sfNiwI0XEpaWRCYiSQ9ri5cQqUIwKxg/edit?usp=sharing)

This google doc examines every HERO chart for every defensemen that you labeled better than Klefbom. Note that he is better than 4 defensemen that you ranked higher than him, with Drew Doughty and Erik Karlsson being exceptions due to their higher TOI. He is around 6-8 on HERO rankings per the sheet.

+/- is the very ineffective way to tell how well a player does. Playoff metrics mean nothing to a player's talent.

(http://hockeyviz.com/player/klefbos93/EDM/1617)

These graphs identify that when Oskar Klefbom is on the ice, the Edmonton Oilers visibly take more shots when Klefbom is on the ice. While Klefbom might allow more shots, he plays around the league average of TOI versus top-six forwards and playing a substantial amount of more time against the top paring defensemen, which is plausible to lead to more shots getting thru.

oZS% is irrelevant when talking about individual status.

(https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_SgY5SHEPySR0gQNzQs4ZybowDSZat7y55iEWEi2ank/edit?usp=sharing)

This a Google doc of WAR rankings. Notice how Klefbom is 3rd. If your points that Edmonton's save percentage is better, wouldn't the WAR Model correlate to your contention?

Comparing Klefbom shots suppressed compared to MacDonald and Beauchimen, the two players you mentioned, Klefbom is in the 6th percentile of Shotsup, while MacDonald is league average, and Beauchimin is in the 2nd percentile.


What is WAR?
These stats are very good, but once again, they don't seem like top 10 defenseman stats.

Players who's HERO charts are better than Klefbom's: Doughty, Hedman, Karlsson, Keith, Josi, Subban, Lindholm, Barrie, Pietrangelo, Faulk. I'm sure there are more but that's 10.
Also, i still don't know what WAR is, but the fact that Edmonton's save percentage is better when he is not on the ice as it is when he is tells something ... their defence is pretty good but not great, so that isn't because of a great defence that they have.
Jul. 31, 2017 at 11:09 p.m.
#41
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Edited Jul. 31, 2017 at 11:29 p.m.
WAR - Wins Above Replacement. Invented by Bill James

I explained in the sheet why Klefbom is better than Subban and Keith, and now, having updated it, he is better than 3/4 players that you mentioned (Barrie) in HERO. (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1U5gF9iypiqQ4sfNiwI0XEpaWRCYiSQ9ri5cQqUIwKxg/edit?usp=sharing)

If Edmonton's save percentage was so low, then why does the WAR not correlate? Klefbom plays against the top lines, so there is room for higher goals to score.

edit : 2/4 (Lindholm/Barrie)
Jul. 31, 2017 at 11:29 p.m.
#42
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Quoting: phillyjabroni
WAR - Wins Above Replacement. Invented by Bill James

I explained in the sheet why Klefbom is better than Subban and Keith, and now, having updated it, he is better than 3/4 players that you mentioned (Barrie) in HERO. (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1U5gF9iypiqQ4sfNiwI0XEpaWRCYiSQ9ri5cQqUIwKxg/edit?usp=sharing)

If Edmonton's save percentage was so low, then why does the WAR not correlate? Klefbom plays against the top lines, so there is room for higher goals to score.


Could please provide a link to the WAR stats you have listed? I have not found the model updated for 2016/17.
Jul. 31, 2017 at 11:31 p.m.
#43
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Quoting: tadhockey
Quoting: phillyjabroni
WAR - Wins Above Replacement. Invented by Bill James

I explained in the sheet why Klefbom is better than Subban and Keith, and now, having updated it, he is better than 3/4 players that you mentioned (Barrie) in HERO. (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1U5gF9iypiqQ4sfNiwI0XEpaWRCYiSQ9ri5cQqUIwKxg/edit?usp=sharing)

If Edmonton's save percentage was so low, then why does the WAR not correlate? Klefbom plays against the top lines, so there is room for higher goals to score.


Could please provide a link to the WAR stats you have listed? I have not found the model updated for 2016/17.


https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_SgY5SHEPySR0gQNzQs4ZybowDSZat7y55iEWEi2ank/edit?usp=sharing
Jul. 31, 2017 at 11:31 p.m.
#44
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Quoting: phillyjabroni
WAR - Wins Above Replacement. Invented by Bill James

I explained in the sheet why Klefbom is better than Subban and Keith, and now, having updated it, he is better than 3/4 players that you mentioned (Barrie) in HERO. (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1U5gF9iypiqQ4sfNiwI0XEpaWRCYiSQ9ri5cQqUIwKxg/edit?usp=sharing)

If Edmonton's save percentage was so low, then why does the WAR not correlate? Klefbom plays against the top lines, so there is room for higher goals to score.

edit : 2/4 (Lindholm/Barrie)


what do you mean wins above replacement? Like, the team wins more when he's playing more minutes?
Jul. 31, 2017 at 11:31 p.m.
#45
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where do you get these stats from phillyjabroni. I would like to look up some players myself
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Jul. 31, 2017 at 11:33 p.m.
#46
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Quoting: rangersandislesfan
Quoting: phillyjabroni
WAR - Wins Above Replacement. Invented by Bill James

I explained in the sheet why Klefbom is better than Subban and Keith, and now, having updated it, he is better than 3/4 players that you mentioned (Barrie) in HERO. (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1U5gF9iypiqQ4sfNiwI0XEpaWRCYiSQ9ri5cQqUIwKxg/edit?usp=sharing)

If Edmonton's save percentage was so low, then why does the WAR not correlate? Klefbom plays against the top lines, so there is room for higher goals to score.

edit : 2/4 (Lindholm/Barrie)


what do you mean wins above replacement? Like, the team wins more when he's playing more minutes?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wins_Above_Replacement
Jul. 31, 2017 at 11:33 p.m.
#47
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Quoting: rangersandislesfan
Quoting: phillyjabroni
WAR - Wins Above Replacement. Invented by Bill James

I explained in the sheet why Klefbom is better than Subban and Keith, and now, having updated it, he is better than 3/4 players that you mentioned (Barrie) in HERO. (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1U5gF9iypiqQ4sfNiwI0XEpaWRCYiSQ9ri5cQqUIwKxg/edit?usp=sharing)

If Edmonton's save percentage was so low, then why does the WAR not correlate? Klefbom plays against the top lines, so there is room for higher goals to score.

edit : 2/4 (Lindholm/Barrie)


what do you mean wins above replacement? Like, the team wins more when he's playing more minutes?


also, Doughty is 16th which definitely shows something, which is that it isn't telling everything.
Jul. 31, 2017 at 11:34 p.m.
#48
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Quoting: phillyjabroni
Quoting: rangersandislesfan


what do you mean wins above replacement? Like, the team wins more when he's playing more minutes?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wins_Above_Replacement

it says that's baseball.
Jul. 31, 2017 at 11:34 p.m.
#49
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Quoting: Pasta88Sauce
where do you get these stats from phillyjabroni. I would like to look up some players myself


http://ownthepuck.blogspot.com -> HERO
https://www.hockey-reference.com -> general advanced stats
http://hockeyviz.com -> advanced stats w/ visual aids
Jul. 31, 2017 at 11:35 p.m.
#50
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Quoting: rangersandislesfan

it says that's baseball.


the concept still applies to that of other sports.
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