Forums/Armchair-GM

Here's your Zetterberg, MTL fans... (+ Duchene, Hanifin)

Created by: dtd_tank
Initial Creation Date: Aug 2, 2017
Published: Aug 2, 2017 at 11:47 am
Team: 2017-18 Detroit Red Wings
Team Explanation
If we're trading the captain, we're going all out.

NOTE: We're not trading the captain.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
Russo, Robbie2$800,000
Athanasiou, Andreas2$2,000,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
Vanek, Thomas2$3,000,000
Trades
DET
  1. Galchenyuk, Alex
  2. Juulsen, Noah
  3. 2018 1st round pick (MTL)
  4. 2019 3rd round pick (MTL)
MTL
  1. Zetterberg, Henrik
  2. Russo, Robbie
  3. Ericsson, Jonathan ($1,500,000 retained)
  4. 2018 2nd round pick (OTT)
  5. 2018 4th round pick (DET)
DET
  1. Duchene, Matt
COL
  1. Nielsen, Frans
  2. DeKeyser, Danny ($1,000,000 retained)
  3. 2019 1st round pick (DET)
DET
  1. 2018 1st round pick (DAL)
Doesn't necessarily need to be a trade with DAL. Just a trade deadline move.
DAL
  1. Green, Mike ($3,000,000 retained)
DET
  1. Fleury, Haydn
  2. 2018 3rd round pick (CAR)
CAR
  1. Nyquist, Gustav
Buyouts
  • Stephen Weiss: $2,566,667
Retained Salary Transactions
  • Jonathan Ericsson: $1,500,000 (35.29%)
  • Danny DeKeyser: $1,000,000 (20%)
  • Mike Green: $3,000,000 (50%)
  • Gustav Nyquist: $1,425,000 (30%)
  • Petr Mrázek: $2,000,000 (50%)
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2018
DET
MTL
DAL
DET
DET
CAR
DET
DET
MTL
2019
DET
DET
MTL
DET
DET
DET
DET
2020
DET
DET
DET
DET
DET
DET
DET
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
23$75,000,000$67,869,443$457,500$857,500$7,130,557
Left WingCenterRight Wing
Larkin, Dylan
$925,000
C, LW
UFA - 1
Duchene, Matt
$6,000,000
C, LW
UFA - 2
Mantha, Anthony
$863,333
RW, LW
RFA - 1
Abdelkader, Justin
$4,250,000
LW, RW
NTC
UFA - 6
Galchenyuk, Alex
$4,900,000
LW, C, RW
UFA - 3
Tatar, Tomas
$4,800,000
LW, RW
UFA - 4
Svechnikov, Evgeny
$863,333
LW
RFA - 3
Athanasiou, Andreas
$2,000,000
C, LW, RW
RFA - 1
Vanek, Thomas
$3,000,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Bertuzzi, Tyler
$661,667
LW, RW
RFA - 1
Helm, Darren
$3,850,000
C, LW, RW
NTC
UFA - 4
Sheahan, Riley
$2,075,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
Witkowski, Luke
$750,000
RD
UFA - 2
Glendening, Luke
$1,800,000
C, RW, LW
UFA - 4
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Ouellet, Xavier
$1,250,000
LD
RFA - 2
Daley, Trevor
$3,166,666
RD
NTC
UFA - 3
Howard, Jimmy
$5,291,666
G
NTC
UFA - 2
Kronwall, Niklas
$4,750,000
LD
NTC
UFA - 2
Jensen, Nick
$812,500
RD
UFA - 2
Mrázek, Petr
$2,000,000
G
UFA - 1
Hicketts, Joe
$636,111
LD
RFA - 2
Sproul, Ryan
$625,000
RD
UFA - 1
McIlrath, Dylan
$650,000
RD
UFA - 2
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Franzen, Johan
$3,954,545
RW, LW
UFA - 3

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Aug 2, 2017 at 11:52
#1
Joined: Nov 2016
Posts: 270
Likes: 28
Detroits teams isn't worth as much as you think it is.
Aug 2, 2017 at 11:56
#2
Let'sGoBlues | WPGv4
Joined: Jun 2016
Posts: 4,281
Likes: 2,440
Quoting: JTrades
Detroits teams isn't worth as much as you think it is.


Agree with you, I think these are pretty outlandish outside of the Green deadline deal.
Aug 2, 2017 at 12:01
#3
(v1) Ottawa GM
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 993
Likes: 194
Time and time again, I see you make absurd trades, overvaluing your players. I'm glad that this time, it's not just me letting you know it.

I understand that you're very attached to your longtime captain Zetterberg and I know he won't be traded this season (any reasonable fan should be aware of this), but this is just ridiculous. The other trades are bad too, with the exception of Green.
Aug 2, 2017 at 12:07
#4
Banned
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 497
Likes: 4
Zetterburgh Is Our Long Term Captain And Can't Trade Captains They Are attached too their teams for reasons
Aug 2, 2017 at 12:09
#5
Go Wings Go
Joined: Jun 2016
Posts: 16,453
Likes: 1,865
Duchene trade isn't realistic, No way is Nielsen waiving his NMC for Colorado and i'm not surrendering 5 years of Nielsen and DeKeyser for 2 years worth of Duchene. Doubt Duchene would be willing to resign back with Detroit when he can go too much better teams. Only trade that's realistic is the Green trade both Carolina and Montreal say NO.
Aug 2, 2017 at 12:09
#6
Joined: Jun 2016
Posts: 562
Likes: 47
This has a 0% chance, if Montreal is going to make that push they'd just move prospects and not current roster players: not even going to go into depth because it's too bad.

Col: an overpaid old 3rd line center, an overpaid number 3 defenseman and a first for a top line center

Car: why do they need another winger where they're already pretty deep

Dal: green must be having a great year this year to fetch a first.

Put down the nhl 17. Z isn't worth as much as you think, this team is awful and isn't worth much we (Kenny) have to realize this and start over
Aug 2, 2017 at 12:12
#7
Go Wings Go
Joined: Jun 2016
Posts: 16,453
Likes: 1,865
Quoting: JTrades
Detroits teams isn't worth as much as you think it is.


Agree only the Green trade is realistic, The others are pretty bad especially the Montreal and Carolina trades. And i'm not giving up 5 years of Nielsen and DeKeyser for only 2 years of Duchene.
Aug 2, 2017 at 12:20
#8
Thread Starter
Joined: Jun 2016
Posts: 483
Likes: 46
Quoting: We_Want_The_Cup
Time and time again, I see you make absurd trades, overvaluing your players. I'm glad that this time, it's not just me letting you know it.

I understand that you're very attached to your longtime captain Zetterberg and I know he won't be traded this season (any reasonable fan should be aware of this), but this is just ridiculous. The other trades are bad too, with the exception of Green.


This was designed to be outlandish. Zetterberg will never be traded, and that's the point I'm making here. What KH would want in a trade would far outweigh what any team would give up to get Z.

The Nyquist trade should've been for Fleury, as I've done in the past with approval from Carolina fans. I'll edit that one.

The only other is Duchene, and I have no idea what he's worth. Thought process was giving a 2C, middle-pairing defenseman (we retain money on his too-high-AAV), and 1st. This is modeled around the rumored Hamonic/prospect/1st offer from NYI (2C instead of prospect, and Hamonic is slightly better than DDK).

Hearing your response kind of sucks though... I almost always post my Armchair teams asking for feedback. If I made the perfect trades on the first time, I'm either overpaying or in the wrong business. Trades take some back and forth, so I start in a place where I think I'm a little low, looking to see what it would take to get a deal done.
Aug 2, 2017 at 12:22
#9
Joined: Oct 2016
Posts: 88
Likes: 3
Zetterberg as much as i like him isnt worth that much now he is 36 sign till 40 i wouldnt do it for galchenyuk even one for one.
Aug 2, 2017 at 12:39
#10
(v1) Ottawa GM
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 993
Likes: 194
Quoting: dtd_tank
Hearing your response kind of sucks though... I almost always post my Armchair teams asking for feedback. If I made the perfect trades on the first time, I'm either overpaying or in the wrong business. Trades take some back and forth, so I start in a place where I think I'm a little low, looking to see what it would take to get a deal done.


Alright, the explanation of Z is understandable. But I'm pretty sure you were the one who offered something like

MTL Gives
Galchenyuk
DET Gives
Helm, Sheahan, low-tier french-quebecer prospect, low-tier other prospect, 3rd round pick

When I brought it to your attention that you're not even close to being a mile away from close, then you gave a hard pass on Galchenyuk. Since then, I've seen you make one or two more trades where you treat Habs players like trash value and Detroit players like gold value. I dunno, call me a crazy fan, but it's kind of insulting. But I do appreciate the honesty, so I'll pipe down a little.
Aug 2, 2017 at 12:53
#11
(v1) Ottawa GM
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 993
Likes: 194
About the Duchene trade, here's how I visualize things.

Duchene is a 2/3C of the same caliber as Frans Nielsen, with potential to improve to 2C with better linemates (his linemates were terrible). Their cap hits are near enough to ignore. However, 26yo VS 33yo is significant step back, not to mention Nielsen is signed for 5 more years but will very likely take a step back this season. I'd say that become of this, Nielsen's value is maybe 2/3 of Duchene's, at best.
DeKeyser is supremely overvalued in the Detroit fanbase. Even if you retain a million, he also has five years left at 4M and is realistically more of a 3rd pairing guy. Solid for 3rd pairing, weak link pylon in a 2nd pairing. Quite honestly, because of his contract, his value is almost negative.
The 1st round pick DOES help though... As a bottom feeder, that pick is worth more than most, though a 2019 and not 2018 pick.

All in all, I'd say COL would lose this trade big time if they are intending on getting out of their situation asap. If they're playing the long game and hoarding picks, then they still lose the trade a little, but it can be a blessing in disguise on the long term if they draft something good.

That's my 2 cents.
Aug 2, 2017 at 1:00
#12
Thread Starter
Joined: Jun 2016
Posts: 483
Likes: 46
Quoting: We_Want_The_Cup
Quoting: dtd_tank
Hearing your response kind of sucks though... I almost always post my Armchair teams asking for feedback. If I made the perfect trades on the first time, I'm either overpaying or in the wrong business. Trades take some back and forth, so I start in a place where I think I'm a little low, looking to see what it would take to get a deal done.


Alright, the explanation of Z is understandable. But I'm pretty sure you were the one who offered something like

MTL Gives
Galchenyuk
DET Gives
Helm, Sheahan, low-tier french-quebecer prospect, low-tier other prospect, 3rd round pick

When I brought it to your attention that you're not even close to being a mile away from close, then you gave a hard pass on Galchenyuk. Since then, I've seen you make one or two more trades where you treat Habs players like trash value and Detroit players like gold value. I dunno, call me a crazy fan, but it's kind of insulting. But I do appreciate the honesty, so I'll pipe down a little.


I offered Nielsen + Abby + 2nd for Galchenyuk + Plekanec. At the time, I didn't realize Galchenyuk was valued so high, and I still don't know Plekanec's value (it doesn't seem high since I keep seeing him get traded away). I think this is the only time I've tried a Montreal trade (outside of this silly Zetterberg trade).

I think Sheahan or Helm are each worth a 3rd or 4th at very best, so there's no way I'd add them to that trade unless it were a kicker. I can only see them getting traded for a decent value for a team really in need of a 3C (Pittsburgh?).
Aug 2, 2017 at 1:05
#13
Thread Starter
Joined: Jun 2016
Posts: 483
Likes: 46
Quoting: We_Want_The_Cup
DeKeyser is supremely overvalued in the Detroit fanbase. Even if you retain a million, he also has five years left at 4M and is realistically more of a 3rd pairing guy. Solid for 3rd pairing, weak link pylon in a 2nd pairing. Quite honestly, because of his contract, his value is almost negative.


I do have a very hard time valuing our defensemen because they're all playing at a higher level than they should be (since we don't have a true 1D), and our team as a whole regressed last season. I think DDK could be a good 4D, maybe a decent 3D at his ceiling, but that peak is coming very quickly as he's already 27.

Is XO a better value, considering his contract and that he's probably got about the same ceiling, though he's a few years younger? That might be the case. Would swapping XO and DDK in this trade make a difference significant enough to get COL to accept?
Aug 2, 2017 at 1:06
#14
Let'sGoBlues | WPGv4
Joined: Jun 2016
Posts: 4,281
Likes: 2,440
Quoting: dtd_tank

The only other is Duchene, and I have no idea what he's worth. Thought process was giving a 2C, middle-pairing defenseman (we retain money on his too-high-AAV), and 1st. This is modeled around the rumored Hamonic/prospect/1st offer from NYI (2C instead of prospect, and Hamonic is slightly better than DDK).


I think where you're missing the boat on the Duchene trade is that age matters. DDK is 27, Nielsen is 32. Duchene is 26 - the reason Sakic is shopping him is to get younger and compete in a few years with the prospects/picks they can gather. Yes, Hamonic is 26, but I think the other parts of that supposed NYI deal were going to be young and talented.
Aug 2, 2017 at 1:07
#15
(v1) Ottawa GM
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 993
Likes: 194
Quoting: dtd_tank
Quoting: We_Want_The_Cup


Alright, the explanation of Z is understandable. But I'm pretty sure you were the one who offered something like

MTL Gives
Galchenyuk
DET Gives
Helm, Sheahan, low-tier french-quebecer prospect, low-tier other prospect, 3rd round pick

When I brought it to your attention that you're not even close to being a mile away from close, then you gave a hard pass on Galchenyuk. Since then, I've seen you make one or two more trades where you treat Habs players like trash value and Detroit players like gold value. I dunno, call me a crazy fan, but it's kind of insulting. But I do appreciate the honesty, so I'll pipe down a little.


I offered Nielsen + Abby + 2nd for Galchenyuk + Plekanec. At the time, I didn't realize Galchenyuk was valued so high, and I still don't know Plekanec's value (it doesn't seem high since I keep seeing him get traded away). I think this is the only time I've tried a Montreal trade (outside of this silly Zetterberg trade).

I think Sheahan or Helm are each worth a 3rd or 4th at very best, so there's no way I'd add them to that trade unless it were a kicker. I can only see them getting traded for a decent value for a team really in need of a 3C (Pittsburgh?).


Huh, then I guess I caused a stink for confusing you with someone who has probably a similar username tag. Sorry bout that buddy.

While we're on this tangent, I do remember that trade now, though it is indeed quite bad of a trade because of Galchenyuk being included. He is valued high, but not at the level of MacKinnon (even though their productions are essentially identical). As for Plekanec, his value is low. He could be worth a 2nd round pick with 3M retained for a team like Pitts who really need a good, fast, veteran, defensively sound 3C. But otherwise worth a 3rd round pick with 3M retention.

As for Sheahan going to Pittsburgh, I really don't think that happens when they have much better options available. He would probably go more to a team that needs fillers for a really low pick, like 5th or so.
Helm has more of a chance to make it to Pittsburgh imo, but again with 50% salary retention, otherwise he's way overpaid.
Aug 2, 2017 at 1:18
#16
Thread Starter
Joined: Jun 2016
Posts: 483
Likes: 46
Quoting: AK_tune
Quoting: dtd_tank

The only other is Duchene, and I have no idea what he's worth. Thought process was giving a 2C, middle-pairing defenseman (we retain money on his too-high-AAV), and 1st. This is modeled around the rumored Hamonic/prospect/1st offer from NYI (2C instead of prospect, and Hamonic is slightly better than DDK).


I think where you're missing the boat on the Duchene trade is that age matters. DDK is 27, Nielsen is 32. Duchene is 26 - the reason Sakic is shopping him is to get younger and compete in a few years with the prospects/picks they can gather. Yes, Hamonic is 26, but I think the other parts of that supposed NYI deal were going to be young and talented.


See my comment above yours. Would swapping DDK (27yo, $4M) out and XO (24yo, $1.25M) in tip the scales a bit?
Aug 2, 2017 at 1:23
#17
(v1) Ottawa GM
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 993
Likes: 194
Quoting: dtd_tank


See my comment above yours. Would swapping DDK (27yo, $4M) out and XO (24yo, $1.25M) in tip the scales a bit?


It would, a bit, but not significantly. You've gone from negative/neutral value to very small value. XO isn't projected to be anything more than a 5th defenseman, and simply has little upside. Detroit simply doesn't have any NHL-cusping or NHL-ready D prospects with trade value, and that's why you'd be a bad trade partner with Colorado (who's looking for that).

**edit: To clarify, this is the league perception of XO. I'll be glad to have him defy our expectations, but regardless, that's his trade value. It's a lot like the Galchenyuk situation. Circumstances have shot his value down to the rest of the league, but he still has value within the team.
Aug 2, 2017 at 1:41
#18
Thread Starter
Joined: Jun 2016
Posts: 483
Likes: 46
Quoting: We_Want_The_Cup
Quoting: dtd_tank


See my comment above yours. Would swapping DDK (27yo, $4M) out and XO (24yo, $1.25M) in tip the scales a bit?


It would, a bit, but not significantly. You've gone from negative/neutral value to very small value. XO isn't projected to be anything more than a 5th defenseman, and simply has little upside. Detroit simply doesn't have any NHL-cusping or NHL-ready D prospects with trade value, and that's why you'd be a bad trade partner with Colorado (who's looking for that).

**edit: To clarify, this is the league perception of XO. I'll be glad to have him defy our expectations, but regardless, that's his trade value. It's a lot like the Galchenyuk situation. Circumstances have shot his value down to the rest of the league, but he still has value within the team.


Okay, this is fair. So who would be a realistic <30 1C the Wings could target without sacrificing Larkin/AA/Mantha? I assume Draisaitl's out of our league. Backstrom? RNH is meh. Tavares is too expensive and unlikely. ROR due to Eichel/Reinhart up and coming?
Aug 2, 2017 at 3:16
#19
Avs fan
Joined: Jun 2017
Posts: 66
Likes: 5
No on that Duchene trade
Aug 2, 2017 at 4:09
#20
(v1) Ottawa GM
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 993
Likes: 194
Quoting: dtd_tank
Quoting: We_Want_The_Cup


It would, a bit, but not significantly. You've gone from negative/neutral value to very small value. XO isn't projected to be anything more than a 5th defenseman, and simply has little upside. Detroit simply doesn't have any NHL-cusping or NHL-ready D prospects with trade value, and that's why you'd be a bad trade partner with Colorado (who's looking for that).

**edit: To clarify, this is the league perception of XO. I'll be glad to have him defy our expectations, but regardless, that's his trade value. It's a lot like the Galchenyuk situation. Circumstances have shot his value down to the rest of the league, but he still has value within the team.


Okay, this is fair. So who would be a realistic <30 1C the Wings could target without sacrificing Larkin/AA/Mantha? I assume Draisaitl's out of our league. Backstrom? RNH is meh. Tavares is too expensive and unlikely. ROR due to Eichel/Reinhart up and coming?


I'm pretty confident there isn't a single 1C that your Wings can afford without touching Larkin/AA/Mantha. It's just about giving value to get value back. You don't have the pieces available to do that. Your best bet is to trade solid veteran pieces for a solid prospect. It might be unpopular, but actually trading your captain (if the above combo is off-limits) is probably the only way you'd ever get anyone worth mentioning back.

I'd suggest simply shuffling the deck and waiting it out. Ship out those big contracts for next to nothing to teams who need their veteran abilities. Let the kids come up. Draft some good kids for the next two, three (up to 5) seasons. Then progressively add a couple key veteran pieces back in there. That's how I see a proper rebuild should be done.
 
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