Will the new Caps team have enough to contend?

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Created by: steveospeak

Team: 2017-18 Washington Capitals

Initial Creation Date: Aug. 29, 2017

Published: Aug. 30, 2017

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

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Given the Capitals cap situation, they won't be able to field a 23 man roster (assuming Vrana makes the team), and they will have little in cap room to call up other more expensive prospects or add someone via trade.

While the Caps should still be a playoff team, this roster they are going to rely on 2 rookies in their bottom 9, plus a league min guy in Devante Smith-Pelly. In addition they will have a pair of rookies in their bottom two pairings on defense.

From an outside perspective the following is weaker:

2nd line- Vrana has potential and Burakovsky should develop more, but they aren't likely to match the 48 goals and 106 points of Justin Williams and Marcus Johansson.

3rd line: The Caps will replace Burakovsky with one of Wilson, Smith-Pelly or their 2nd rookie (Barber/Stephenson/Walker/Boyd), it's unlikely they can match his 35 points in 64 games output. Wilson has experience, but he had 19 points last season and has never shown himself to be much of an offensive threat. Chances are there is a fair drop-off here.

4th line- Caps also lost Danniel Winnik, who was a very solid 4th line winger for them, scoring 25 points including 12 goals in 72 games.

Bottom 4 defensively: Losing Alzner and Schmidt (to say nothing of the playoff run with Shattenkirk), is going to sting. Alzner's play had slipped some, but he still logged big minutes and put up solid defensive numbers. Schmidt was a 3rd pairing guy, but he would have likely moved up with Alzner leaving. He was starting to emerge as a strong 2 way defender. Replacing them will be a pair of rookies in likely Djoos and Bowery, both have some promise and upside, but both are unlikely to match what Alzner and Schmidt brought to the table.

Special teams: Alzner was their top defender on their PK unit, logging over 3 min per game of PK time. Winnik was the 2nd highest forward on the PK unit last year.

Powerplay, while the Caps retain their top 3 forwards on PP in TOI per game, they lose their 4th and 5th forwards. Also Johansson was 3rd in PP scoring. It's likely that unit sees a slight decline as well.

What do you think can this team still contend given their short roster and cap situation?

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2018
2019
2020

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LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

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ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
22	$75,000,000	$66,676,773	$4,978	$582,500	$8,323,227

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Ovechkin, Alex $9,538,462$9,538,462 LW M-NTC UFA - 4	Bäckström, Nicklas $6,700,000$6,700,000 C M-NTC UFA - 3	Oshie, T.J. $5,750,000$5,750,000 RW M-NTC UFA - 8
Vrána, Jakub $863,333$863,333 ($500,000$500K) LW UFA - 2	Kuznetsov, Evgeny $3,900,000$3,900,000 C UFA - 8	Burakovsky, André $3,000,000$3,000,000 RW, LW UFA - 2
Stephenson, Chandler $650,000$650,000 C, LW UFA - 2	Eller, Lars $3,500,000$3,500,000 C UFA - 1	Connolly, Brett $1,500,000$1,500,000 RW, LW UFA - 2
Smith-Pelly, Devante $650,000$650,000 RW, LW UFA - 1	Beagle, Jay $1,750,000$1,750,000 C UFA - 1	Wilson, Tom $2,000,000$2,000,000 RW UFA - 1
	Graovac, Tyler $625,000$625,000 C UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Orlov, Dmitry $1,275,000$1,275,000 LD UFA - 6	Niskanen, Matt $5,750,000$5,750,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 4	Holtby, Braden $6,100,000$6,100,000 G M-NTC UFA - 3
Djoos, Christian $650,000$650,000 LD UFA - 2	Carlson, John $3,966,667$3,966,667 RD UFA - 1	Grubauer, Philipp $1,500,000$1,500,000 G UFA - 1
Orpik, Brooks $5,500,000$5,500,000 LD UFA - 2	Bowey, Madison $703,333$703,333 ($82,500$82K) RD UFA - 1
Chorney, Taylor $800,000$800,000 RD UFA - 1

Aug. 30, 2017 at 10:19 p.m.

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,601

Likes: 22,712

First, it would hard to believe that even with all the changes they will slip so badly that won't be competitive. But there are a changes which always causes disruption and some of those new players, are they really NHL ready or NHL good? To answer your question, well they might win a first round, but no more.

Aug. 30, 2017 at 10:23 p.m.

steveospeak

Thread Starter

Joined: Aug. 2017

Posts: 302

Likes: 27

Quoting: palhal

Yeah I probably should have made that clear, when I said "have enough to contend" I'm talking about being in a position to at least advance to the Eastern Conference Finals if not the Stanley Cup Finals. I do think even with their turn over and playing in the tough Metro division they still have enough to make the playoffs. I don't think it's a guarantee they make the post season b/c one other factor is will their luck change with injuries as they were one of the healthiest teams in the league last year.

Aug. 30, 2017 at 10:24 p.m.

rangersandislesfan

Black Lives Matter

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 29,920

Likes: 4,651

I actually think they win the cup in 2018.

Aug. 30, 2017 at 10:28 p.m.

krakowitz

Emotionally in 2018

Joined: Nov. 2016

Posts: 9,290

Likes: 3,387

We Caps fans always have the ability to look at it with the glass half-full, so I do think there is a shot. A few reasons behind that

1. Obviously, anything can happen. Who expected Nashville to be in the Finals when the playoffs started? Who expected LA to win the Cup in 2012 when the playoffs started? It's plausible, albeit unlikely.

2. Look at Pittsburgh's roster from the last two seasons. A decent amount of those players were guys that nobody knew about, came out of nowhere and became key for the Pens in winning championships (Guentzel, Sheary, Rust, etc). We need to start bringing in guys that could have similar effects. Players like Djoos, Walker, Barber, Bowey, etc can have similar effects. Not saying that they will, but it's possible.

3. When the pressure isn't on, we thrive. When we were supposed to lose to the Rangers, we went up 3-1 in the series. Then came the pressure. We blew the lead and lost the series. This season, when we went down 3-1 to Pittsburgh, we were supposed to lose Games 5 and 6. We absolutely dominated them (more than we had before) in Game 6. It wasn't even close. Then came Game 7 where we were supposed to beat them. We lost. Now that there isn't any pressure, this may be the year we advance

Aug. 30, 2017 at 10:31 p.m.

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,601

Likes: 22,712

My thought right now are in the Metro ....it's the Pens, Rangers, Columbus, Washington.....and then one of the Isles or Canes could still make the playoffs as the wildcard too. Five teams in the Metro is definite possibility.
In the Atlantic....I have Tampa winning, and then the Leafs/Sens/Bruins really close. Montreal out of the playoffs. Of course anything can happen once you get in the playoffs. Nashville was an 8th seed last year, and the Kings won a Cup as an 8th seed in the Conference.

Aug. 30, 2017 at 10:48 p.m.

steveospeak

Thread Starter

Joined: Aug. 2017

Posts: 302

Likes: 27

Quoting: krakowitz

1 & 2 are def. fair points. Nashville was absolutely not expected to make the run they did and others have made similar runs in the past as well.

As for the Pens they did get a lot out of a group of fringe or average prospects. They also made a lot of small trades that turned out positive for them in a big way (it remains to be seen if the Caps can do this with their cap situation). One difference though is before these last two years, the Pens did make a big acquisition in Phil Kessel and a smaller trade in swapping Sutter for Bonino. So they did add some fire power, before relying on breakout guys like Sheary, Guentzel (who was a legit prospect, but most thought a year away), and Rust.

Aug. 30, 2017 at 10:54 p.m.

ClockReads2113

Joined: Jul. 2016

Posts: 8,019

Likes: 3,229

Won't be as good as last season but still really good. Sucks losing Mojo and Williams but most their points will be made up by Bura (50+ points), Vrana (40+ points), and Wilson (he'll get top 6/9 time). Losing Alzner was great, he's terrible, but losing Schmidt sucks so that's a wash. I've been saying the team's success really comes down to Djoos. We need him to be 2nd pair ready. He has the IQ, skill, and speed, but he's untested. If he works out then Caps are set. Also look for Carlson to have a big year now that he's away from Alzner and Orpik and it's a contract year.

If everything goes to plan they'll be a top 5/top 3 team. But if for some reason all the young kids don't pan out and Caps also get really hurt, they could miss the playoffs. My bet is they finish in the 5-7 range.

Aug. 31, 2017 at 1:50 p.m.

timmyv38

Joined: May 2015

Posts: 217

Likes: 27

I don't expect them to contend for the Cup this season unless their youngsters really step up. Probably 3rd or 4th in the Metro, 2nd round exit. Only changes I would make are Barber and Walker/Boyd instead of Stephenson and Graovac. Graovac is an NHL/AHL tweener, and Stephenson hasn't shown NHL talent.

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Will the new Caps team have enough to contend?

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