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Ausbear17

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May 25, 2021
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Edmonton Oilers
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Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 17 at 9:33 a.m.
Thread: Time to Make It Happen
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jacketsman61</b></div><div>Edm fans need to comprehend that they will not be able to keep Draisaitl long term. The math is not there. McDavid is up for contract in two years and they can’t even re-sign him until after the sign Draisaitl. By going into next season with Draisaitl you run the risk of losing him for nothing and his trade value goes down. Edm is almost in the 75% range of trade him and we haven’t even seen the playoffs yet. That trade for him is insane value. McDavid could be set up with a deep team for years from this deal. I am sorry but Edm absolutely does not turn that down…</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jacketsman61</b></div><div>There is no money in Edm. That is clear. McDavid comes up for contract the summer after that. Do you really think Edm can pay Draisaitl around 11+ mil and give a hefty increase to McDavid, who on the open market, could garner at least 15 to 16 mil per? Not going to happen. RNH has a NMC so they can’t move him either. They are already lacking on defense and goaltending. They can’t justify spending more to retain Draisaitl while ignoring the real problems or otherwise McDavid will walk.</div></div>

This is all BS. Edmonton has the cap space to re-sign both, considering Draisaitl's new contract won't kick in until the 25-26 season and McDavid's until the 26-27 season.

They have money coming off the books every summer and the cap appears to be rising every year. And if that's not enough, they would trade any other player to make room for Draisaitl and McDavid before trading either Draisaitl or McDavid.

The ONLY scenario either gets traded is if he doesn't want to sign in Edmonton. Then he'll be traded with 1 year left on his deal to a team he's willing to sign with.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 8 at 4:04 a.m.
Thread: PSA to all NHL fanbases
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JamieG613</b></div><div>Those are the prices we don't care if you don't like them</div></div>

Buddy, 9/10 of those ACGMs are coming from your own backyard, we're not the ones trading for them.

Robertson is massively injury prone and has yet to cement himself a roster spot, no one's giving up a first for an undersized winger who can't take a hit without ending up on IR.

Timmins is waiver bait, also injury prone as hell, there's a reason he was acquired for a 4th line player, in the AHL, he's also damaged goods, no one's giving up a 2nd and a 3rd for him.

Kampf is on a terrible contract, many teams would pass on him if he hit waivers.

Liljigren will be traded because he's not the kind of defenseman that Treliving likes, and for less than that.

And Marner, you can want that, you won't get that, because he has a full NMC, he gets to decide where he goes, if anywhere, before FA, he might only give you one team to negotiate with, and look what happens when the player says "I'll only go there" you get Kane and Tarasenko returns, well below expected. You only drive prices up with a bidding war, and NMCs prevent that. You can't even threaten to waive him to force his hand like Tampa did. If Marner leaves Toronto, he leaves for nothing as a UFA that they can't afford to resign.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 28 at 6:22 p.m.
Thread: TRYING to have a quick turn around
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SupremeBone</b></div><div>EDM retaining 2.5mil on Campbell defeats the purpose of trading him as his buyout is either less than 2.5mil or slightly above (in year 3). The only thing they'd save is the 1.5mil for 3 years at the end which, in the grand scheme of things, is pretty minimal. On top of that, you have them making said trade in order to acquire a goalie that they don't really need (unless you don't trust Skinner after his performance so far). The trade simply makes no sense for EDM.

Since I'm unclear on where you're drawing the line between cost to dump Campbell and cost to acquire Jarry, I'll refrain from commenting on the value.</div></div>

can't agree more as well as wasting assets and compounding the problem.
Buy out. accrue cap space over season use assets at deadline again.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 20 at 12:35 p.m.
Thread: Honest Thoughts
I don't see the point exactly. EDM's issue is not finding a good goalie to replace Campbell. Its cap space. They have their goalie they've hitched too now in Skinner and Pickard is at least doing an admirable job as backup.

EDM's need is cap space and their best option is a Campbell buyout. Not double down on a high risk/reward when they have the position solidified enough to be a contender already.

CLB would make <em>some</em> sense hoping for a hail mary that Campbell comes back to form but even if he didn't, they're at the very least getting some cap relief and can simply buy out Campbell for a cheaper cap penalty also. Small gains here but gains none the less.

I think CLB and EDM are destined to either BO both guys. I know cap penalties seem like poor asset management but sometimes you got to bite the bullet. Sometimes buyouts are justified and the right thing to do. EDM should absolutely buyout Campbell. CLB should only buy out Elvis if they find a better option. If not they're better suited to keep him in the hopes of him finding his game again. They do need someone to play goalie. Might as well be the guy they're paying out the nose to.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 20 at 11:28 a.m.
Thread: Honest Thoughts
Edmonton's situation with Campbell is always going to come down to the salary cap.

Conventional wisdom suggests that unless there's a team willing to take Campbell on as the cap-recapture part of a deal, or to take him for cheap, the Oilers are aiming to buy Soup out in the summer. A few AGM's I've tinkered with for next year have seen Edmonton run a cheap backup to Skinner - I typically use Rodrigue here - because the equal-to-or-greater-than $3M bonus hit that Edmonton is getting from Connor Brown doesn't leave a lot of room for quality investment across the roster. Assuming Edmonton moves Kulak and buys Campbell out, and that the trio of Broberg, Holloway, and Rodrigue all sign for just their qualifying offers, the Oilers are looking at having a hair over $12M to find two top-six wingers, a middle-six winger, a #4C, and a #2RD.

Do I think Merzlikins has a really good chance to bounce back to form on a team that hasn't been as awful as Columbus has in recent memory? Absolutely. But it's coming at the loss of almost $3.5M in cap space (the difference between the sum cost of QO Rodrigue and Campbell's buyout and Elvis' cap hit) and could be the difference between Edmonton having to forsake improvements that are going to be absolutely crucial in other areas of the roster.

If Columbus does this with some sort of retention in exchange for an asset (how much for a first?) then it's much more amenable to where the Oilers are going to be this summer, but I still think that being able to use that $3.5M to add to the skating portion of the roster makes running a rookie backup tolerable, if not legitimately feasible.