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Austerity

Austerity
Member Since
Apr. 25, 2019
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Toronto Maple Leafs
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Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 7, 2020 at 11:58 p.m.
Thread: Andersen and Pesce Trade and Bottom 6 Depth
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jamiepo</b></div><div>Pesce... fast? Not really. He is a stay at home guy. Would fit nicely on the leafs for sure but it is not worth moving nylander for. Dubas already **** this one down so it’s not worth debating. Especially with nylander coming off a productive year and Pesce a down year and a season ending shoulder injury.

Answer thiese two questions

who is the more skilled player?

What is the most valuable position in hockey?</div></div>

Skill? Nylander
Valuable Position? Center, but Nylander has largely played wing at the NHL level, and does not flesh out the team well. Unsure whether or not he plays top line on the Hurricanes.

Pesce has reasonably fast speed. I wouldn't say he's Cale Makar or Morgan Rielly, but he's certainly faster than average.

And just because Dubas has shot this before, doesn't mean he can't circle back to it, but that's a good point. The shoulder injury is also a good point.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 7, 2020 at 11:45 p.m.
Thread: Andersen and Pesce Trade and Bottom 6 Depth
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jamiepo</b></div><div>Looks better? Rookie on his offside in the top 6, an overpaid 4th line that should only see 5min a game an underpaid Demelo and a very old guy alive being asked to take on a decent workload.

This would blow up in your face when nylander puts up 80+ points next season and leafs sputter.

Holl for Larsson written all over this.

It’s a simple remedy. Andersen goes to canes for a reasonable return of futures... after leafs have found a replacement.

Leafs sign Demelo to a reasonable contract and keep 2 of Holl Dermott lehtonen or liljegren on the right side.</div></div>

TBH just switch Robertson to the left (where he should be), slide AJ to 3rd line, Mikheyev to 2nd line RW, not a big deal imo just annoying to look at.

DeMelo is not really overpaid here. Cap is not increasing, this is likely the best he ever gets, and previous seasons he hasn't put up the most stellar of numbers. Guys like this don't make more than 3 million a year unless they're someone like Radko Gudas and hit a ton or put up more than 10-high teens points in a season. He's projected at around 2-3 million for 2-3 years. We get surprised all the time at signings and trade returns (Ex Ennis for a 5th at trade deadline) and he still overpaid on Maroon and Khudobin.

A reasonable return of futures, if you're not trading Nylander, makes enough sense. Hadyn Fleury or Jake Bean and a B-level prospect makes sense. I think that if you're trying to get closer to winning, having Pesce (25 year old, fast, defensively sound, relatively cheap for 4 more seasons) is just what you need. Nylander would put up 80+ points for the Canes so he should get something more back, but the idea of trading him and Andersen for those 2 roster players doesn't kill me.

Holl for Larsson killllllls me thank god Dubas is smarter than that... right?? :grimace
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 7, 2020 at 11:33 p.m.
Thread: Andersen and Pesce Trade and Bottom 6 Depth
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Whiskerz</b></div><div>Sharks don't need another LD. We already have our 3 set in stone unless someone gets traded (unlikely given only one we likely wanna move is Vlasic)</div></div>

I think he explained in his blurb that SJS aren't necessarily the team that'd take Dermott for a mid 30s pick, just one team that maybe might. Could be any team, the idea of moving Dermott to a struggling defensive team for a mid 30s pick is all I care about.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jamiepo</b></div><div>You know we could just trade all our players for nothing and get 81.5m in cap space.... I’m sure the Preds wouldn’t mind doing Matthews for Turris if you want...

That trade is bad for the leafs. Also bad for the canes cap but they could always move other players and get even more value back from this deal. You can’t move players around to get another “William” nylander.

They also aren’t moving Pesce for just Andersen either.</div></div>

Value is off because no picks are coming from Carolina to Toronto, but I think the additions of Foegele, Pesce, and DeMelo into the line-up help round out the team more, and Robertson being ready partially resolves the loss of Nylander's offense. So should Foegele, to an extent, and a healthy Rielly should help etc etc.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 7, 2020 at 11:29 p.m.
Thread: Andersen and Pesce Trade and Bottom 6 Depth
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>Leafs take that deal all day long if only to get cap relief. But why does Carolina take on that cap and why do they need three goalies?</div></div>

The Hurricanes likely make another deal involving Reimer (or less likely, Mrazek) if this deal were to take place. Could see one of Reimer or Mrazek coming to the Leafs in a trade but for this Armchair GM I'm guessing that's not what he'd shoot for.

So that partially resolves the issue of Carolina's cap, by general assumptions. I think Black Ice addressed team needs well, made reasonable offers, and the team looks better than this year's. I like it. He even overpaid on Maroon and Khudobin (imo) and still managed to have cap space left over.

This team can roll four forward lines and I think it's cool.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 28, 2020 at 1:48 a.m.
Thread: Hey Hawks Fans
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>exo2769</b></div><div><a href="/users/Austerity" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Austerity</a> I've followed Joki since he was drafted by the Hawks. Even his year in Portland in the WHL. The Joki for Nylander trade was Stan's single biggest mistake in his trading career. Arguable bigger than extending Seabs. Only time will tell. Joki's a stud. The only D prospect I saw in my lifetime that Coach Q actually trusted. AND he trusted him so much that Joki was tossed on the ice against McDavid when they played EDM. I don't see Joki getting traded.</div></div>

Yeah, that makes sense to me. His poise looks like his greatest strength from when I've watched him.

I think that the Leafs are kind dead in the water in looking for a certified top 4 RHD. In my opinion, Dumba costs too much and is too high of variance to go for. He's not even close to being guaranteed to be effective enough to justify the potential price tag.

I made a meme Armchair GM last Friday that was just on the cusp of being obvious, and it grabbed Martinez (for Nylander, of course) - what would the cost realistically be for him, and should the Leafs even bother trying to trade?

I'm starting to think they should just try a Lefty on the right side, even if they're less effective there, and run Sandin on 3LD for:

Rielly-Barrie
Muzzin-Holl
Sandin-Dermott

It's not a super tough D line, but it's fast and skilled. It just worries me on zone entries and clearing the front of the net... so the defensive part, lol. Maybe pick up Hainsey or DeMelo from Ottawa and run 7D?

Maybe a deal sending Johnsson to the Senators for Ennis and DeMelo would be a good idea (and possibly offloading Ceci)? I think it's possible Ennis would come back to Toronto and perform well, especially given Babcock being gone.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 27, 2020 at 2:33 p.m.
Thread: Hey Hawks Fans
Good discussion we're having. As a Leafs fan (who was a big Hawks fan throughout the era where the Leafs were trash and prioritized Tyler Biggs because he biggs rather than talent), I think Murphy is the perfect fit for the Leafs and would be willing to pay a premium for him.

The question becomes would the Hawks listen to an offer, and what would it take? A cost-controlled 20ish goal scorer/pest in Johnsson is a nice piece, along with a few other pieces may do it. The situation is as complex as I sensed though, and Exo's post I liked a lot:

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>exo2769</b></div><div>This is a very complicated question from the Hawks point of view without even introducing other teams. Yes, Shaw is loved in Chicago. He's also just got another concussion and has on occasion mentioned that he can't take too many more of those. DeHaan has had (I think ) 4 shoulder surgeries and I know 2 within the past 2 years on the same shoulder. ~$8M in cap crunch is there. The 1st thing the Hawks organization needs to do is better understand what Shaw/DeHaan want to do. Those are the 1st dominos when it comes to the long term situation for the Hawks. If those guys call it quits...those contracts aren't toooo hard to move. LTIR and insurance paying the salaries...I can think of a few teams that'll take that on for smaller assets.

The Hawks need more Connor Murphy's. Not less. So it would have to be a MASSIVE overpayment in order for Stan to listen. I'd also support that decision as a Hawks fan. You don't get a better hockey club by trading away your best players. So unless it's 99.9% certain that prospect is going to be something good...there's not a whole lot to talk about.

I hear <a href="/users/MG1986" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@MG1986</a> when he says hockey trade because both teams want to win now (Leafs more likely this year than Hawks), but the example of Murhpy for Johnsson is a fleecing. That's NOT CLOSE to a hockey trade. The hardest position to find in the NHL today is RHD. The easiest position to find is middle six winger. I can't state enough how pissed I'd be to lose Murphy for a $3.4M - 25 year old - middle six winger. How about this trade. Saad for Reilly? It's just not close.

From the opposite view point...I'd suggest that Leafs fans overvalue their wingers. It's just pretty darn easy to find a winger that'll score ~40 points and it won't cost you $3.4M to do it. Every single year in the NHL there are wingers that make this production on ELCs. Every year. You don't find ELCs be top 4 RHD every year.

***EDIT*** Stan traded Kahun for Maatta. You can go back and check my history. I was darn pretty upset when that happened. Today...I don't mind the trade. I was wrong back then. I don't care about Kahun's 27 points in 48 games. Good for him. The Hawks need D and bad. Maatta's been pretty decent.</div></div>

I guess another question becomes, if the Leafs were able to obtain Jokiharju from the Sabres and flip him to the Hawks in a 3-way deal, what would that take in both trades?

In my not-super-well-informed opinion, Jokiharju is a young RHD who projects to be approximately a 3rd defenceman for his whole career. I know the Hawks would be interested in having him back.

Is a deal for Murphy dead in the water if the 3-way route has to be taken? Will the Leafs have to give up too much to obtain Jokiharju in the first place?
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 27, 2020 at 1:44 p.m.
Thread: Hey Hawks Fans
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MG1986</b></div><div>I don't think the Leafs and Hawks match up very well on a deal. Connor Murphy's value seems to get blown well out of proportion considering what he brings to the table, and the Leafs are deep enough at wing that someone like Saad, or even Shaw would probably not be a great fit, even though both of those player, and especially the latter, bring a grit element the Leafs currently do not have. If the Leafs make a meaningful move (a trade where they acquire a non-rental) I think they will be trading offense for defense. So, unless the Blackhawks are prepared to make a hockey trade like Johnsson for Murphy, which I think is more than a fair deal both ways, I don't see this working out. As a side note, if the Hawks retained some money, I do think the Leafs would be extremely interested in rental Lehner.</div></div>

I like your take on the situation, but I think the current market for Defence is a seller's market: teams with Defence will want a premium, and Murphy is 6'4" EvErY TiMe He StEpS oN ThE IcE.

He's also got good underlying numbers. Obviously, the Leafs would be interested in rental Lehner - he solves any and all defence problems a team can have, and then you can run rested Robin and Freddy... perhaps run 11F and 7D for rested D as well, and cycle the hell out of the Leafs forwards.