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Bobcaygeon97

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Apr. 3, 2018
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Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 7, 2021 at 2:39 p.m.
Thread: Say what now
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bobcaygeon97</b></div><div>They're a lot of misconceptions or call it education on Samorukov that people seem to be missing. Samorukov is a bonafide prospect who only went to the KHL because the AHL shut down. His AHL numbers and performance was extremely good. He may very well make the Oilers coming out of camp this year and By all accounts is ahead of Broberg on the Oilers defensive depth charts.
He could very well be Jones replacement on the Oilers this year.
within a year or two would be a replacement of Keith's on ether the Oiler or the Blackhawks.</div></div>

It's not that I don't like Samorukov as a player. I think he has the potential to be a solid bottom or maybe even middle pair Dman in the NHL. (Top pair isn't realistic IMO.) It's just that I wouldn't place him higher than any of the Hawks current D prospects like Boqvist, Mitchell, Beaudin, Kalynuk, Stillman that are already contracted with the team and learning the teams' systems/schemes. That's why he'd be in the KHL. I guess the long winded way of saying...Picks are preferred from the Hawks system because Samorukov is the prospect the Hawks actually do have in spades. That list actually doesn't even include some of their NCAA / CHL 20/under prospects too.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 8, 2021 at 11:21 p.m.
Thread: Tarasenko and Summer
Over the last 3 seasons, Brandon Saad has provided approximately the same amount of overall value, per Evolving-hockey's GAR, that Jesse Puljujarvi has, in nearly 3 times as many minutes. He is also nearing 30. Why give him a 5.5 million dollar deal?

EH projects Goodrow and Yamamoto to cost about a million more each than you gave them and McCabe about a million less.

The goaltending decisions seem iffy to me but goalies are voodoo so *shrug*

My three main complaints:

The list of skaters who have played for Edmonton over the past 3 years and have put up a worse GAR value than Duncan Keith in that time is as follows: Mike Green, Tobias Rieder, and Kyle Turris. Caleb Jones and Mikko Koskinen are pretty insubstantial losses, but Keith has been a major negative for years now and having him on the team actively makes it worse. If you want veteran leadership and cup experience, why not just delegate that to Saad and Goodrow?

I'm honestly not sure why St. Louis would want Kassian or Benson. There'll probably be better specs than Benson available if the Blues want to rebuild, even with the risk Tarasenko comes with, and Kassian's a super-replaceable bottom-sixer, there's a better version of him available in UFA every offseason. Broberg and a second seems like a pretty crappy return for a player with Senko's resume, even if his health might keep him out.

I also dunno if Tarasenko even makes sense for the Oil. In the very possible sense that the injuries keep him from being a major contributor, this team isn't really any better than last year's, and they'll have to shed pieces next offseason anyway to make cap space for Bear and Puljujarvi's extensions. Trying to add actual good players on the blueline and bolstering the bottom-6 with strong playdrivers is almost certainly a better use of cap space and assets.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 7, 2021 at 8:46 a.m.
Thread: Strome and Keith
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ChiHawk</b></div><div>You can wax poetic with advanced stats until you are blue in the face, that's what fans like to do that don't watch the games. IF you watched the games, you would understand the advanced stats aren't that accurate. There is a reason why people who make a living playing, coaching or scouting hockey do not use advanced stats as a leading indicator of how good a player is; unlike fans, especially those addicted to playing fantasy hockey.

Again, take advanced stats with a grain of salt. The eye test, if you know hockey well enough, is a much better measuring stick so watch every game before you come to such a hard conclusion on who a player is.</div></div>
Corsi and goals aren't advanced stats! :tearsofjoy

The fact that you spend most of your time attacking my knowledge of the game shows just how weak your arguments are.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ChiHawk</b></div><div>He's a strong #4 on most teams, but can't handle 24 minutes a night anymore. There was also a ton of covering up he was doing positionally for BoQ and Mitchell; stats won't reflect that. <strong>He's also on the ice against the strongest of the opposition in the toughest on ice positions. The advanced stats you showed don't extract that</strong> and further, it doesn't show how he was covering positionally for Mitchell and BoQ. When both players fell down the lineup, they didn't see the oppositions best lines. </div></div>
You're right, the stats DON'T show that Keith is on the ice against the strongest of the opposition OR in the toughest on-ice positions. Here's what the stats show:

TOI vs Elites
Murphy: 25.6%
Zadorov: 25.0%
Keith: 22.0%
Mitchell: 21.1%
de Haan: 21.0%

O-zone faceoff%
Boqvist: 62.07%
Keith: 50.85%
Kalynuk: 50.00%
Mitchell: 49.13%
de Haan: 47.49%
Murphy: 40.25%
Zadorov: 38.83%

So your "eye test" was wrong - Keith didn't play the hardest minutes (that went to the Zadorov-Murphy pairing) and he got the 2nd easiest zone starts of any Chicago defenseman.

Do you have any other false narratives you'd like me to dismantle?
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 7, 2021 at 4:21 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 28, 2021 at 10:03 a.m.
Thread: Which Eichel trade is the most fair
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>And what I'm saying is, they aren't.

1st of all, both your other guys there project as wingers. Michkov is already a winger. Bedard is gonna project as winger due to his size.
He is maybe 5'9. That is already a huge blow to them value wise. Centers are way more valuable than wingers. No one has any doubt Wright is coming in as a C.
Unless Bedard finds some magic growth spirt he's gonna end up on a wing or dominated on the dot. Just go look at Jack Hughes and his 35% FO. That is honestly his most likely comparable.
The only reason he plays center at 15 is because the rest of the kids aren't that good. It's a different story at the NHL level.

You want to talk about Tourny, we don't have numbers to compare there.
If you want to compare them this year, Wright was by far the best player on team canada in the 5 games he played. Period. That's a horrible argument for your point. He stepped on the ice after not playing hockey all year and dominated.
As for the Russian kid, we'll see. Again there really is no apples to apples comparison here. But he's a winger.

Wright didn't play but 5 games of hockey last year due to the third Reich of canada not allowing kids to play hockey so you're never really going to have much of a comparable here. Everything will be skewed.
But everyone who watched and covered that u18 team said Wright was by far the best player on it. It wouldn't have mattered if Bedard was a year older or not.</div></div>

Haha 😄🤣😂
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 28, 2021 at 8:56 a.m.
Thread: Which Eichel trade is the most fair
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>the term "Franchise player" is very over rated. Is Jack Hughes a franchise player?
Is Lafrenière a franchise player?
If they are we really haven't seen it yet.

I mean honestly. Wright is suppose to be a generational player. Now we don't know that for sure, because he hasn't got there yet. But he's probably the best player since Crosby to come out the draft.
That's saying a lot to considering McDavid and Matthews have both had great careers so far.</div></div>

What I'm saying is Connor Bedard is better than Wright is right now at 15yrs old. Look up the stats, and did you see his performance at the world u18? Again he's 15! And i believe Michkov is better now than Wright is also. Again look at what he did at the tourney. Would I like my team to draft Wright, absolutely! But would I rather have either of the 2023 top 2, yes. Only time will tell.