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Forum: Armchair-GMDec 10, 2019 at 11:24
Forum: Armchair-GMNov 21, 2019 at 4:48
Forum: Armchair-GMNov 19, 2019 at 7:18
Thread: Pageau 2 Go
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>csick</b></div><div>You havent been watching this season then lol. Plus Ottawa is giving away a 2nd so its not really trading a 1st, more of an upgrade from 2nd to late 1st</div></div>

You're not wrong. I don't watch Sens games, at all.

But when I see a guy whos historical point totals for full seasons are 43, 33 then 29 points. Followed by a season where he was on pace for 25 but got injured, theres a red flag. His numbers are declining. Obviously that has to do with the team that was put around him, but lots of it falls on the player. Now this year, he's on a 60 pt pace with a ridiculous 25% shooting percentage. Thats also just a 20 game sample. If you think hes a 60 pt player now, you will be displeased come season end. Kassian is have an incredible season, on pace for 60 pts too. Even though he's playing with 29 and 97, I can be realistic and say he'll likely put up 45 pts, and thats great too. None of this is even mentioning that he's a UFA at the end of the year. What's he looking for if he has a career year?
Im not trying to take anything away from JGP. Obviously hes a great PKer and reliable 3rd line center, but if you think a 20 game sample with a 25% shooting percentage is enough to warrant a 1st, you are dead wrong.

A moot point is that JP is typically valued around a 2nd rounder, so JP and the pick are relatively a wash in terms of value. Boro is worth like a 5th at best, so the OP comes down to JGP for a 1st.

Also to your point about the 1st and 2nd being a slight upgrade is off. A 1st round pick has about an 80% chance of being a regular NHL player. That cuts in half when you move to the second round. Rounds 4-7 are all similar in success rates, but the drop off after the 1st round is major, and analytically thats not something to ignore.