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Glep
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Jul. 23, 2022
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Carolina Hurricanes
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Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 12, 2022 at 11:06 p.m.
Thread: My opinion on the locks for next season
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caniac2000</b></div><div>I'm a little skeptical to call the Rangers a lock. I think they probably make it, but I can see a world where they miss. Shesterkin regression to a human being and that defense still being as awful as it was last year, I can see it. I doubt it though, but that doubt makes it hard for me to call them a lock</div></div>

Even if Igor regresses, almost everything else would have to go wrong as well. The defense is young and still improving and so is the forward core. If the kid line and defense doesn’t improve at all then maybe even with Igor regressing. It would take the worst of the the worst though. Too many factors leaning towards the team being a playoff team and not enough going against.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 12, 2022 at 11:02 p.m.
Thread: NWWFTLF
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>kster34</b></div><div>I’m still processing - everyone entitled to an opinion, but…
Vegas has leafs tied with canes for 2nd best odds to win the cup but you believe there is a world where leaf’s can miss the playoffs :tearsofjoy . Agree to disagree on that one</div></div>

All I’m saying is that the leafs are too top heavy. All the eggs in one basket. Idc what vegas says the odds are, that’s picking things you want to see. There are people who believe it is capable for the leafs to miss the playoffs even after coming off of a 115 point season. It’s hockey, anything is possible. The habs went to the finals in 2021, farther than the leafs have in like 60 years. What happened the next year? Dead last and first overall. “Oh but the habs were a fluke and should have never gotten there” yes but it shows how it’s possible for a team to fall off massively. 115 points to missing the playoffs in a very strong eastern conference is not a crazy prediction. As I have said, the leafs got worse and everybody else got better. Don’t be surprised if they miss the playoffs.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 12, 2022 at 10:53 p.m.
Thread: My opinion on the locks for next season
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ItWasIn</b></div><div>Fair. It's so tough to predict who will be a playoff team these days. Seems like every season now there's three or four new playoff teams every year.</div></div>

Exactly. I think the flames are just as good, if not better than last year. It is difficult that’s why I genuinely believe there are only 12 locks at the moment. The most notable snubs are Anaheim for missing and Toronto for making. Anaheim could make the playoffs with improvement from the young core as a whole and gibson finding his grove or dostal coming up and being that guy. Toronto could miss because of the goaltending and/or a long term injury to a top 5 player on that team. If Matthew’s or marner is injured for 40 games. that’s automatically like 10 less points as a team. If I recall correctly both players have WARs over 5 which is nuts.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 12, 2022 at 10:40 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 12, 2022 at 10:25 p.m.
Thread: NWWFTLF
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>kster34</b></div><div>Why would you say the “if the leafs miss the playoffs”? We finished 1 point behind you in a tougher division. Are the canes going to miss the playoffs - come on, that just makes no sense.

Leaf problems are not due to D; they ‘ve lost some really close series (&amp; had their share of bad luck, which happens) to teams that ended up going to the finals. And they played Tampa much tougher than the team that beat you out.
We have yet to find a goalie (incl Freddy) that can make the big save, or yet to find a 3rd liner that can pop in a big goal. Hopefully this year 🤞 but no major overhaul needdd.
Leafs don’t need to trade anyone on d unless it’s for cap reasons, which this isn’t.</div></div>

731 vs 718 total points. The Atlantic had an argument for being stronger last year but the metro was more balanced therefore making it stronger. 6/8 teams were over 80 points vs 4 for the Atlantic. Not to mention both divisions had 4 teams over 100 points making them clearly the strongest two divisions. If you ask which division was more top heavy, yes it’s the Atlantic. If you ask which was harder, it’s clearly the metro. Sure the Atlantics top 4 is better than the metros but the bottom 4 which imo determines how hard a division is, it is the met all day.

Anyways onto the point the where the leafs may miss the playoffs. It is very possible for the leafs to miss the playoffs. If you put all of your eggs into one basket and you drop that basket, you have no eggs. Think of that in terms of the leafs top 4 forwards plus Reilly. If one of Matthew’s or marner gets injured for a substantial amount of time, the leafs playoff odds are in jeopardy. If 2 of the other 3 get injured, playoffs would be a target, not an expectation. Not to mention how the leafs got worse this off-season and how every other team in the division other than the Florida teams got better or stayed the same.

BOS- they got krejci and Zacha and lost only haula. Better.
BUF- lost miller and pysyk but they have key graduations in 3 top 30 propsects in quinn peterka and power. Better.
DET- do I even need to get into this? Better.
OTT- again, do I need to explain? Better.
Habs- non factor but got a little better I would hope being that bad last year. Same or better.

Now for the Florida teams it’s Tampa and Florida who between the two were Stanley cup finalists and presidents trophy winners. Florida obviously lost the most so they won’t be as good but Tampa I think could be similar to last year as they have only two real subtractions in mcdougnah and palat.

Now the leafs? Lost campbell kase and soup man. Added? Jarnkrok Murray and samsonov? That goal tending tandem is atrocious. Samsonov I like but in no world should he be paired with murray for a tandem. That in my opinion is a bottom 5 tandem in the league.

So how do I think the leafs miss the playoffs? The goaltending performs as expected, a key injury to a top player, and the division getting all around better. It will be harder for the leafs to win games with this tandem and a much stronger division. Plus the metro being much more balanced? If the leafs finish 4th, they have a chance of missing the playoffs. The metro is likely going to have both the canes and the rangers in the top 2, and then could have any of the teams not from Philadelphia make the playoffs realistically. The metro is getting better as well. Young talent coming up and top players signing in free agency (Yes I am assuming kadri to NYI but that is all but announced right now). There is a world where the leafs put up 100 points even and lose out to 8 other teams.

Assuming the leafs goaltending goes as I predict and there is a top player sidelined by injury for 30+ games, these are my standings predictions.

Atlantic:
Y-TBL
X-FLA
X-OTT
X-DET
TOR
BOS
BUF
MTL

Metro:
Z-CAR
X-NYR
X-NYI
X-PIT
WSH
NJD
CBJ
PHI

Honestly any team who isn’t montreal or philly, I could see making the playoffs. CBJ NJD and BUF are dark horses but if things work out they could make the playoffs. The only true locks for the playoffs at where we are right now are imo Carolina, Tampa, and the rangers. Everybody else I believe could make or miss the playoffs. Not to slight the leafs but I do believe there is a world where the leafs miss the playoffs next year.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 12, 2022 at 5:58 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 12, 2022 at 4:14 p.m.
Thread: NWWFTLF
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Burnout</b></div><div>What, and I mean what, are you on about. NST doesn't have a means of ranking D pairs. HR doesn't even have good advanced stats. Dom doesn't track D-pairs that way. I can't speak on EH, but I'm pretty skeptical that's the case.

I get the vibe that you're just trying to argue your homer view and I'm sorry non-Canes fans aren't looking through your rose-coloured glasses, but they're so tinted you can barely see anything through them. Certainly not enough to see what other teams actually need.</div></div>

Let me get this straight. This dude came at you with stats and your reply is is essentially saying that those stats don’t count and the one that you are familiar with, you doubt? While also failing to present the evidence that they asked for from you regarding pesce and Skjei being a bad pairing? You can’t be serious right now. Homer or not, you just made yourself look like both a **** and a jackass at once.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 12, 2022 at 1:36 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 12, 2022 at 1:35 p.m.
Thread: Ideal TDL Moves and Playoff Lines
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>exo2769</b></div><div>Ask Canes fans on here how good Scott Morrow is. Ask Canes fans on here how good Gunler is. Ask Canes fans on here how good Kochetkov is. Ask Canes fans on here how good Drury is. Leading your team to the Calder Cup title is far more impressive than MHL/VHL success. Heck, Pashin isn't even CAR's best Russian...Forward...prospect. Ponomarev and Trikozov are better prospects. Seriously! You're just trying to sell me a Honda Accord, but call it a Ferrari. It's a car. It's serviceable, but it's not getting Patrick Kane.</div></div>

Morrow- best canes prospect. Arguably top 30 prospect in the NHL but logically closer to late 30s early 40s

Gunler- definitely fell in his draft year but has been lack luster so far in my opinion. He performed decently in the SHL this past season but he is closer to a 7-8 prospect in the canes pool IMO.

Kochetkov- no question the canes 2nd best prospect. Was drafted as an overager but he has shown being worth every bit of the pick. He played well in Russia and continued his success in the AHL and even got into some NHL games too. Kochetkov could be a back up this year but the canes are being smart with their development on him.

Drury- definitely would have been an NHLer on 25 other teams. The canes are just better and therefore let him marinate in the AHL. He hasn’t carried his success in development into recent years but he is still a good player nonetheless. I was higher on him after the 2020-2021 season after his massive SHL success. He has solid middle 6 upside.

Ponomarev- had a very up and down season. Played in the KHL VHL MHL and AHL. He was best in the AHL and MHL. That is almost expected however as he was a KHL talent playing in the MHL. Coming to America he was expected to play well. His KHL stats are lackluster as he was playing under 5 minutes a game. His VHL stats are pretty bad imo. He got plenty of opportunity yet was lackluster in it.

Gleb- he is gleb. I liked gleb. I say no more no less.

Pashin- heavily slept on prospect. He was projected to go in the first 3 rounds of the 2020 draft but surprise surprise, the Russian factor. Look at him as a prospect similar to grudinin from this past draft who also went to carolina. They have the skill to be a first round prospect, that’s not debated, but they fell due to being Russian and undersized. 5’8 forward pashin and 5’10 defenseman grudinin. Pashin was mocked by button at 56 and Mackenzie at 89. To be taken at 199 is criminal for pashin. Not to mention those were mock drafts who ranked him there including the Russian factor and the fact he is undersized. I remember reading reports on pashin after the draft that if he were already in America, he could have competed for a first round spot. He performed in the VHL like how you would want a 19 year old to play in the VHL.

The canes prospect pool is so deep so in those rankings he is ranked as an HM or near the bottom. Put him in a pool that isn’t deep, I’ll use your hawks for example, pre 2022 draft because that was when those rankings were from, he would be 4th in their pool, bias aside. I could argue third too. Riechel and commesso are 1-2, and then you could put Mitchell or Dach. I believe pashin is better than both of those guys but I am saying 4th to rid the bias. Now post draft. I would honestly put pashin over anybody other than riechel nazar korchinski commesso and maybe rinzel (I don’t like rinzel but I won’t disrespect your guy). Pashin is still 5th or 6th in chicagos pool, post draft with 3 first round picks.

To rank the canes prospects I have the list as follows:
1) morrow
2) gleb
3) kochetkov
4) drury
5) Gunler
6) Pashin
7) nikishin (would be higher but signed in KHL for 5 more years)
8) Ponomarev
9) Suzuki
10) Rees

I think pashin could be higher too as his upside is higher than drury and Gunler but I am knocking him because of size. Anyways you said ask canes fans how good these players are and I delivered. I will not say anything more but this is what you asked for.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 12, 2022 at 12:23 p.m.
Thread: 2024 Cup w Bedard
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>habs_need_Scoring</b></div><div>what exactly is the reference for that? what do habs fans think he will be and are you saying he will be that by the end of next season when he signed his extension?</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>habs_need_Scoring</b></div><div>what exactly is the reference for that? what do habs fans think he will be and are you saying he will be that by the end of next season when he signed his extension?</div></div>

Let’s put it this way. Some habs fans say they would rather have caufield to moritz seider. How much do you think seider is worth? Now obviously caufield is not seider but if that’s how habs fans view caufield, expect caufield to fetch 1-2m under what seider fetches
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 11, 2022 at 11:11 p.m.
Thread: Canes said F the Russian factor
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ItWasIn</b></div><div>It's interesting because every situation is different with the players. Looking at your Canes. When the player is already in NA like Svechnkikov, it's a non-factor because you can immediately get the player under contract. Then you look at Trikozov, you may have to wait a bit to get that player under contract and I think teams shy away from that.

The 2023 draft will be a prime example. Michkov should absolutely go second overall, but that team will have to wait a while to get him to NA. Can a team stomach that? In a vacuum, they should but a GM picking 2nd overall may not have the leash to wait until 2026 for Michkov.</div></div>

That’s like waiting for malkin though. Sure barker and Ladd were there for the taking and would have been more of an instant impact but malkin was the clear #2.