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Chiller
Brewmaster
Member Since
Jan. 10, 2019
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Toronto Maple Leafs
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Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 17, 2019 at 1:13 p.m.
Thread:
Marner on a bridge
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>drewjenks</b></div><div>This comment is very reasonable.
<strong>Which is mother fu**ing astounding !</strong></div></div>
Haha, I Agree. I need to log off. I see too bad takes of people using emotion and fairy dust to will something into existance. With no Salary cap or a soft cap i would give Marner the sun and the moon. But we need to use facts and the landscape of the NHL to make good decisions.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 17, 2019 at 1:07 p.m.
Thread:
Leafs opening lineup with Marner signed
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>capfriendlyaccount</b></div><div>?</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mondo</b></div><div>welcome to hell, chiller.</div></div>
Marner is not Matthews. He is not a Center. Does not score as many goals(they are more valuable in the league thats a fact). He is by far better than Marner. Matthews is Franchise, Marner is Elite. There is a difference
Marners best comparables
Kanes 2nd contract - 6.3Mil/5 years - 11% of cap, that is 9mil/5 years in todays money
Aho agreed he is worth 8.5mil/5 years and Aho is the same age, plays center, drives play better, is better defensively and scores more goals
Point - rumored between 8.2 and 9.2/5 and he is better than Aho and Marner.
And ok Mitch wants 11.5/5. Thats not in the realm of reality. Mitch has no neogitiation rights, no arbitration rights and has rumoredly turned town Offersheets due to term or wanting to stay. Even if that is a lie no one has done it to him. And now how many teams can actually do it. It aint happening. Mitch has lost all power.
Sorry Mitch, we have your comparables and fair deals for others around the league. Agree or keep living in a fantasy land
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 17, 2019 at 1:03 p.m.
Thread:
Marner on a bridge
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>nchest</b></div><div>I agree $8m is to high on a 3 year deal, but that is the highest I would go, so went with that to show how it would work. I think a bridge should be under $7m per year</div></div>
Ah, fair enough. Yeah I agree with you, but something about seeing 8/2 really bothers me internally hah. Guess we will see how this goes.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 17, 2019 at 1:02 p.m.
Thread:
Would a Marner offersheet actually make sense
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>habs5232</b></div><div>it would potentially make sense if you want to throw away hall next year</div></div>
No garentees Hall stays. Can you keep him and sign Marner and Hughes and Hischer in the upcoming years?
I dont know that question, but probably. Even trade hall part way through the year and get a few assets back.
Is NJ deep enough in prospects to give up on 4 firsts? Will any of them be lottery picks?
Is that $ enough to make the leafs say no. On a 6 year deal fair market value is 9.25 ish. Overpaying a bit you can get up to 10Mil the leafs would go to as is. 10.6 to keep him I would say is worth it. Probably have to get 11.5-12 to make the leafs walk
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 17, 2019 at 12:54 p.m.
Thread:
Leafs opening lineup with Marner signed
I just need to ask, why 11Mil/5? I think the entire league and everyone can agree he isnt worth that..
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 17, 2019 at 12:53 p.m.
Thread:
Marner on a bridge
Not bad, but you still have overpaid Marner by ~2Mil.
Kanes 2nd Contract, Aho's signing, Brayden Points estimated AAV and not buying any UFA years from Marner. Add that no one actually offersheeting marner and rumors he wants to be a leaf...
6.5Mil/2, 7.5/3 8.5Mil/5, 9Mil/6, 9.5Mil/7
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 17, 2019 at 12:34 p.m.
Thread:
Marner Domingue and Girardi
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SammyT_51</b></div><div>I like that Tampa trade tbh.</div></div>
I also like the tampa trade
too high on the AAV for Marner though. 7.5/3 based on all most recent comparables. But not as terrible as a 11mil/5 as others have suggested
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 17, 2019 at 12:31 p.m.
Thread:
Best D amp ton Cap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mondo</b></div><div>This. This is why:
majority of sports fans are dunderheads and will parrot anything they hear on tv/radio. for marner's agent, it helps to have a friend at tsn that says his client wants 11 million.</div></div>
And Logical, take your time and emotion out of it Dubas, who has said all the right things is going to out of the blue cave to emotion from Dregger, Ferris, Marners Camp.
Funny enough Ferris(Marners agent) has done this with 3-4 other RFAs. He stirs up the media, team doesnt cave, near training camp he threatens europe and then just before training camp starts the player caves to a below market AAV. One thing i dont think he accounted for was how excausted all of toronto has become and turned on him and marner. Ah wells
But I have a hard time seeing Dubas cave to peer pressure given the history
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 17, 2019 at 12:24 p.m.
Thread:
Best D amp ton Cap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CBJ4CUP</b></div><div>Marner also wants a 5 year deal. And leafs fans would lose there minds if marner sat out the whole year and the leafs go on a losing streak. If marner sits out the leafs are not top 5 contenders anymore, so im sure the leafs want him to sign. So he has negotiating powers still.
if youre getting mad at marner and what he wants, you should start putting some of that anger towards Matthews, as he got exactly what he wanted and at 5 years.
The Aho comparable is out the window when the next big RFA signing comes out, if Rantanen gets 9x5 then what?
and ps kane cap hit was 15.2% when he signed</div></div>
PS... it was 11%. His second deal out of his entry level was 6.3Mil/5 years. 10.5 yes was much higher on his 3rd contract... Wrong comparable dude...
Aho comparable still holds water. What do you think Rantanen, Point, Marner, Matt tkachuk. Only outlier is Laine because with his seasons who the **** knows. But all other GMs are using Aho as a comparable...
And when Rantanen signs for 9/5, maybe slightly high but in the realm of what he should be getting. He is also a great Marner Comparable.
In Order of RFAs in my opinion based on Skill, position, points ect..
1. Point
2. Aho
3. Marner
4. Rantanen
5. tkachuk
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 17, 2019 at 12:16 p.m.
Thread:
Best D amp ton Cap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mondo</b></div><div>problem is everyone set the bar at 9 million before last season and after the season it jumped to 11 million.</div></div>
How? Aho set the bar literally 3 weeks ago or so. How did it jump? It hasnt, except marners camp, and dregger keep saying he wants 11. Well he isnt worth it. Thats also not how % of cap works
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 17, 2019 at 12:11 p.m.
Thread:
Best D amp ton Cap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CBJ4CUP</b></div><div>In fairness, marner is better than drasital was when he signed the contract. Not saying he is now, but at the same age Marners better.
and drasital signed for 11.3% of the cap, if u do that to todays salary cap it would be 9.3mil, which I think is more fair</div></div>
9.3/6 was a fair deal, now Aho signed for 8.5/5. Aho drives play better, way better defensively, and plays center AND they are same age part of the same draft. Sorry Marner, but your new comparable signed an offersheet agreeing he is worth 8.5/5. Thats where it starts for me.
Everyone can say Marner wont sign that, then sit out. If you own a house worth 1Mil, but are trying to sell it for 5Mil youre crazy. You may try, but the market in the area you live isnt willing to pay that much. And unless a crazy buyer comes in(offer sheet) and will give you youre stupid demands tough, you may want 5Mil, but you need to bring yourself down into reality. Aho-8.5/5, point is rumored on a 8-9/5 as well. Kane signed 11% of the cap. All comparables or better. Yes with no cap id give marner the moon, but in reality where he lives, if he wants to play he has to take a fair offer.
Also, all reports say Columbus and maybe the Isles have worked on offer sheets in the 11-12.5/7-8 range. Marner turned them down, because he wants to be a Leaf and wanted a contract that the leafs would be willing to match. So if thats the case, all those rumors are true, Mitch, you just lost all negotiating power. If you arent wiling to sign an offersheet and leave, you arent leaving, so sign the contract. Becasue after Oct 2, youre out for the season....
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 8, 2019 at 1:39 a.m.
Thread:
Rebuild and Mitch
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PuckPal</b></div><div>"Offer sheet annual average (AAV) is calculated by dividing the contract value by the lower of: 1. The contract length, or 2. Five years" that is in the CBA so what you did is literally hurt your cap by 4.8 million dollars for the next 7 years for nothing. Also, Clutterbuck has no value just like Marleau did seeing the length and injury issues. So where you getting the 1st to get him off the books seeing you can't buyout injured players and will want compensation fitting this. Also, why is Laad on LTIR for this season from all accounts he will be ready for training camp and want to keep playing and has a NTC which will make it expensive to move that contract.</div></div>
You are correct on the Marner thing with one little mistake. The Offersheet AAV is 16.8Million, that is what calculates the draft picks. And NYI will give up 4 first round picks as a result of the offersheet AAV. However, when it comes to the actual salary cap, the Cap hit remains 12Million for all the years. Therefore there is not a 4.8Mil overpay for nothing... either way NYI offering Marner at 12 is stupid, but if they are that dumb, have fun
Clutterbuck and Martin and even to a lesser extent boychuks values are pretty damn low, i would agree.
Ladd thing seems sketch even with the bad trades there.
21 man roster seems eh too
wings trade seems unfair
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 6, 2019 at 6:09 p.m.
Thread:
barrie
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Johnny_G13</b></div><div>If you think Marner isn't going to get over 10 then you're "mad" buddy, he has plenty of leverage considering the only comparable he cares about plays on the same team as him. If Matthews got 11.6 for 5 years after Marner was the leading scorer for the team in back to back years, what on earth could possibly make anyone think that he'll take anything less than 10? You'll be lucky if he agrees to anything under 11, only way that happens is if it's shorter term. As for the offer sheet, let's wait a few days and see what happens.</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Johnny_G13</b></div><div>If you think Marner isn't going to get over 10 then you're "mad" buddy, he has plenty of leverage considering the only comparable he cares about plays on the same team as him. If Matthews got 11.6 for 5 years after Marner was the leading scorer for the team in back to back years, what on earth could possibly make anyone think that he'll take anything less than 10? You'll be lucky if he agrees to anything under 11, only way that happens is if it's shorter term. As for the offer sheet, let's wait a few days and see what happens.</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Johnny_G13</b></div><div>If you think Marner isn't going to get over 10 then you're "mad" buddy, he has plenty of leverage considering the only comparable he cares about plays on the same team as him. If Matthews got 11.6 for 5 years after Marner was the leading scorer for the team in back to back years, what on earth could possibly make anyone think that he'll take anything less than 10? You'll be lucky if he agrees to anything under 11, only way that happens is if it's shorter term. As for the offer sheet, let's wait a few days and see what happens.</div></div>
Its been a week, no offer sheet is coming. And if some moronic team(i hope the islanders) goes and hands him a 12 by 7. oh please, and let him walk. thankyou for the 1sts.
He should be under 9, but probably mid-9s MAX to get this crap done. I love you say the only comparable he cares about is Matthews...Well if thats marners thought he is dumb. They arent the same. Dubas will hold up 10 charts and say look, this says you arent matthews, you may want to be, you may think you are as good as him, but no. There is no comparison. You don't get to pick your comparable in life, everyone else based on data, stats, previous signings sets your comparables up.
9Mil/6
7mil/3
10mil Max/8
remember this
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 5, 2019 at 6:05 p.m.
Thread:
Come on Mitch
Still too much Paul. Lower that AAV by 1.5Mil and maybe we will talk -Signed Dubas
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 5, 2019 at 2:47 p.m.
Thread:
Mitch Goes - Get Connor
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>Why not just keep the assets and offer up an 8.5 million 5 year deal for Connor on an offersheet. Its only a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd compensation which is better than 2 firsts?</div></div>
Cost certainty. Saving 1.5mil and gaining an extra 2 years is worth if(assuming he signs for around 7). Also garentee's that you get him and WPG wont match.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 5, 2019 at 2:46 p.m.
Thread:
Mitch Goes - Get Connor
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Csick123</b></div><div>More like Johnsson or Kapanen + Liljgren + Mikheyev or Bracco and a 1st to get Connor.</div></div>
I am not sure what Winnipeg is looking for. Picks, prospects, NHL players?
I dont like your trade, which probably makes it somewhere in the realm of fair. I hope it wouldnt take as much. maybe lose the 1st. but eh.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 2, 2019 at 11:42 p.m.
Thread:
Hire Me MLSE
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Sign_em_up000000</b></div><div>At this point im fine with him sitting out for the year, just so this doesn't have to drag on any longer.</div></div>
I agree. Marner, Ferris, Dregger, Paul Marner.. its getting tiring. This is Ferris' plan. Every RFA he has had, he has does this. But this time with Toronto being so big we got exhausted too quick. In 1.5 months will be the standard Ferris threat of playing in europe for the year. Then right before training camp the RFA signs for a below average deal #Facts
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 2, 2019 at 11:38 p.m.
Thread:
Hire Me MLSE
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Alexisdaniel</b></div><div>whos that ilya guy on the third. (dont know him)</div></div>
SOme dude from Russia who is big and Mike Babcock calls a G'd Pl'r
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 2, 2019 at 11:11 p.m.
Thread:
Hire Me MLSE
I would not overpay Marner by at least 2.5Million... I would stick with Dubas thankyou
Using Aho's comparable. SAme draft. Same Age. Agreed he was worth 8.45/5. Plays center. Same offensively, better defesively. Marner also not getting no offersheets, and maybe a stretch a bit but Meiers.. at 6x4
Marner is worth now max 9.75/8, 7-7.5/3
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 2, 2019 at 10:04 p.m.
Thread:
Marner discussion thoughts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NR1203</b></div><div>I wish he would sign for like 8x8 or something reasonable like that. But I think we all know that's not happening, and convincing his group to be reasonable is off the table.</div></div>
My upper limit now after Aho signing is 9.5/8. But really i think it shoudl be 9.1/8
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 2, 2019 at 9:56 p.m.
Thread:
How to get Marner
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CameronLeafs</b></div><div>Or keep Nylander, sign Marner for 9x5. The thing is, Marner opened negotiations at that number, by the end of the summer he will give way on either length or cap. he will either sign 11x8, or what is more likely around 9x3 or 5.
9x3 makes sense to me. He files for arbitration when his contract is up, likely signs a 1 year deal for around 10 mil, walks right to UFA in year 5.</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Price_is_the_goat</b></div><div>nah. i cant take a leafs fan critiquing burke seriously</div></div>
We really need to have a talk about Marner here. Marner does not get to pick his comparables. He can ask for whatever he wants. But 9x3 or 11x5 are drunk and grossly overpaid.
Montreal said Aho was worht 8.45/5. Aho agree'd he was worth 8.45/5. Aho was in the same draft as Marner. But he plays center. Basically equal offensively, drives play great, way better than Marner defensively. Best comparable for Marner to date. Also Marner got ZERO offer sheets. None. He has literally no power any more.
Factoring in all of that, not a C, not as good defensively.... 8.25/5 sounds good. 8.8/6, 7-7.5/3....
Also trading Nylander is a terrible idea....
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 2, 2019 at 9:52 p.m.
Thread:
Kawhi Not
Marner- i think a slight overpayment of 0.75Mil after the Aho signing, but eh.
Kerfoot - cool. i like it
Ceci- The leafs are not signing ****ty cant play defense Ceci to anything over 1 year. You cant believe they want him for 4.. thats just silly, especially after Dubas basically said its a 1 year thing.... i would barely trade him for a bag of pucks at this point
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 2, 2019 at 9:45 p.m.
Thread:
Another trade with the Canes
Your Ceci logic is decent, but i think it needs more for Canes
Also, to anyone reading this... please stop drunkingly overpaying Marner. On a 3year deal its closer to 7-7.5. That is based on his comparables, AHo
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 2, 2019 at 9:43 p.m.
Thread:
We can and we will
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Sebahhh</b></div><div>You sound like someone who knows they are wrong LOL. Hold your L and keep it moving, you're clearly bored and I'm sure there's another post you can comment on.</div></div>
Goalies are worth very little. backup especially... 4th is fair. maybe even less, but its tampa
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 2, 2019 at 9:41 p.m.
Thread:
Make BeLeafs
Please can we all stop overpaying Marner... PLeaseeeeeeeeeeeeeee
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