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DragonRaptorHybrid
Sensible Commentary
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Forum:
NHL Trades
Jul. 23, 2021 at 5:42 p.m.
Thread:
(ARI/VAN) - Ekman-Larsson, Garland for Beagle, Eriksson, Roussel, 1st, 2nd, 7th
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>IconicHawk</b></div><div>The one place I wasn’t expecting Garland or Ekman Larsson to go</div></div>well, OEL gets to hang out with the Sedins now, so there's that
Forum:
NHL Trades
Jul. 23, 2021 at 5:39 p.m.
Thread:
(ARI/VAN) - Ekman-Larsson, Garland for Beagle, Eriksson, Roussel, 1st, 2nd, 7th
god, this league is something else sometimes.
vancouver:
+ Benning dumped bad contracts that <em>he</em> signed
+ got cap space for signing Hughes and Pettersson
+ Conor Garland's pretty good
- had to take on OEL's contract
- burned draft capital (including the 9th overall pick) to fix his previous mistakes re: bad contracts
- how exactly are they going to find cap room to pay Garland what he's worth?
arizona:
+ got the 9th overall pick and more draft capital
+ got rid of a long-term contract in OEL's for shorter-term contracts in Beagle, Eriksson, and Roussel
- let Conor Garland go
both teams got what they wanted, but it seems like vancouver gave up more to get what they wanted.
Forum:
NHL Trades
Jul. 23, 2021 at 5:16 p.m.
Thread:
(ARI/PHI) - future considerations for Gostisbehere, 2022 2nd and 7th
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DragonRaptorHybrid</b></div><div>i think my favorite part about this trade was seeing Friedman report the return as a 2022 2nd and the blues' 7th, going to their CF page, and going, "wait, the coyotes don't <em>have</em> the blues' 7th round pick in 2022," before looking at the draft board, finding out that the blues' 2022 7th round pick belonged to the <em>flyers</em>, and realizing what had actually happened.
again, cap space is <em>king</em> in the flat cap world. it's hilarious how desperate GMs are to get out from under contracts they perceive to be bad. (<strong>inb4 the coyotes take Loui Eriksson from the canucks for a 1st</strong>)
(incidentally, seattle should 100% offer-sheet elias pettersson, but that's not for this thread)</div></div>ahahahaha called it
Forum:
Vancouver Canucks
Jul. 23, 2021 at 12:41 p.m.
Thread:
So let's do the math on an Elias Pettersson offer sheet.
Jim Benning <em>says</em> he'll match any offer sheet for Pettersson, but does the accounting really add up? Let's see.
As of today, July 23, 2021, the Vancouver Canucks have $15,174,131 in cap space, according to CapFriendly. Their estimated cap hit includes all of their currently signed players, Micheal Ferland and Jay Beagle (currently listed as on LTIR), Loui Eriksson's remaining cap hit after being buried in the minors, Roberto Luongo's cap recapture penalty, and the $648,780 in bonus overage penalties they incurred this past season.
Let's say... the Seattle Kraken put in an offer sheet for Elias Pettersson of 5 years at $8,221,463 (the maximum they can offer sheet for and only have to pony up a 1st, a 2nd, and a 3rd, before it becomes 2 1sts, instead). This contract, incidentally, would probably bring Pettersson right up to UFA status. If the Canucks match it, that leaves them with $6,952,668 in cap space.
But! The Canucks have 17 roster players signed. If they get Pettersson and Quinn Hughes signed, that only puts them at 19, and they would ideally like to be able to have 23 players on their roster. If they want to skimp <em>super-hard</em>, they could sign 4 players at league-minimum salary, $750,000. But that's now an extra $3,000,000 that gets subtracted away from your remaining cap space. Meaning! That, if the Canucks matched this hypothetical offer sheet, that would realistically leave them with $3,952,668 to hand over to Hughes (who is, realistically, worth more than $3,952,668/year). This is also to say nothing of signing Jason Dickinson, whom Benning ponied up a 3rd-round pick for and would ideally not alienate by only giving him a league-minimum contract.
I don't really see this ending well if Jim Benning tries to match such an offer sheet. Ostensibly, Quinn Hughes is a 10.2(c) player, meaning that he's stuck between a rock and a hard place if the Canucks try to offer him a bridge deal that's under $4M/year. Still, Benning shouldn't be alienating the linchpin of the Canucks' defense like that. Hughes is clearly worth at least $8M/year, if Miro Heiskanen and Thomas Chabot's contracts are anything to go by. Possible outcomes:
1) Hughes takes a bridge deal of sub-$4M/year for, I dunno, 1 or 2 years, and then demands $10M+ on his next contract (a.k.a. the "P.K. Subban special"). I guess it works in the short term, but that's just kicking the can down the road.
2) Benning plays hardball with Hughes' camp, and he ends up sitting out until just before the deadline to be able to play at all for the season (a.k.a. the "William Nylander special"). Hughes' cap hit goes down for this year but then balloons next year, thus also kicking the can down the road.
3) Benning has to scramble to dump any and all contracts that would get in the way of signing Hughes to a fair contract. He may or may not find any takers, <em>or</em> he has to pay a hilariously exorbitant price to dump said contracts (this is where I think the Coyotes should maneuver back into the 1st round this year by taking Loui Eriksson's contract off of their hands in exchange for the 9th overall pick).
Either way, things are already bad for Benning and Friends, and an offer sheet would, imo, speed up the process.
Forum:
NHL Trades
Jul. 22, 2021 at 6:11 p.m.
Thread:
(ARI/PHI) - future considerations for Gostisbehere, 2022 2nd and 7th
i think my favorite part about this trade was seeing Friedman report the return as a 2022 2nd and the blues' 7th, going to their CF page, and going, "wait, the coyotes don't <em>have</em> the blues' 7th round pick in 2022," before looking at the draft board, finding out that the blues' 2022 7th round pick belonged to the <em>flyers</em>, and realizing what had actually happened.
again, cap space is <em>king</em> in the flat cap world. it's hilarious how desperate GMs are to get out from under contracts they perceive to be bad. (inb4 the coyotes take Loui Eriksson from the canucks for a 1st)
(incidentally, seattle should 100% offer-sheet elias pettersson, but that's not for this thread)
Forum:
NHL Trades
Jul. 18, 2021 at 4:42 p.m.
Thread:
(ARI/NYI) - Future Considerations for Ladd, 2021 2nd, 2022 2nd, 2023 conditional 3rd
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>draft_em_sign_em_trade_em</b></div><div>2 Draft picks, no chance in hell Ladd plays 1 game in the 22-23 season, to garner another 3rd Rd pick. Even the Yotes can't handle the cap structure to bring that contract up from the minors, where he'll play or retire.</div></div>well, if Bill Armstrong's not dumb, he'll get Ladd to play 1 game in 2022-23 to get that pick. pretty easy condition to fulfill and also not that hard to have Ladd come up for <em>1</em> game. play him in the first game of the season, say, "oh, well, we're just seeing if he can still handle the NHL," and then put him on waivers and send him down.
Forum:
NHL Trades
Jul. 18, 2021 at 12:06 p.m.
Thread:
(ARI/NYI) - Future Considerations for Ladd, 2021 2nd, 2022 2nd, 2023 conditional 3rd
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>capfriendlyaccount</b></div><div>Didn't cost him too much. Net loss of a conditional 2nd and 3rd to clear up 11 mil. That's a lot less than I would have expected.</div></div>let's take a look at the list of scenarios under which Lou could have gotten rid of Ladd's contract, in order of desirability:
1) trade Ladd to the Coyotes, get draft picks back
2) trade Ladd to the Coyotes, get no draft picks back
3) trade Ladd to the Coyotes and sweeten the deal with draft picks, get draft picks back
4) trade Ladd to the Coyotes and sweeten the deal with draft picks, get no draft picks back
5) buy out Ladd
1) didn't happen because Ladd has no trade value. 2) didn't happen because Ladd's contract is too onerous for that, and he isn't just some AHL tweener schmuck. you'd think 3) would have been the idea, but, apparently, it didn't happen. 4) is what actually happened, and, well, 5) is a terrible option for Ladd's contract.
sure, Lou didn't burn a 1st-round pick (and i doubt Bill Armstrong would've gotten a 1st out of Lou, anyway), but asset management 101 says "having to burn extra assets to rid yourself of a toxic one is a bad situation to find yourself in." you can see that what happened was next to the worst-case scenario for dumping Ladd's contract. this is a Pyrrhic victory, at best, for the Islanders. "draft picks are magic beans" blah blah blah that's the sunk cost fallacy; Lou still burned <em>three picks</em> to get rid of Ladd's contract.
Forum:
NHL Trades
Jul. 18, 2021 at 12:00 p.m.
Thread:
(ARI/NYI) - Future Considerations for Ladd, 2021 2nd, 2022 2nd, 2023 conditional 3rd
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>drewjenkins</b></div><div>Wasn't Ladd on LTIR already?
He hasn't played in 2 years.
So how did the affect cap space?</div></div>i mean, i haven't exactly been keeping up with Andrew Ladd's status, but, supposing he was mostly injured for the last 2 years, LTIR is still not the <em>most</em> favorable situation you want to find yourself in. it's "Extra Cap Space™" with a whole lotta caveats. as a GM, you don't <em>want</em> to find yourself having to use LTIR if you don't absolutely have to. it's still preferable to dump the contract altogether.
Forum:
NHL Trades
Jul. 17, 2021 at 4:44 p.m.
Thread:
(ARI/NYI) - Future Considerations for Ladd, 2021 2nd, 2022 2nd, 2023 conditional 3rd
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Kotkaniemi15</b></div><div>I think you’ve got the wrong idea here. The Islanders just cleared $15 million for a 2nd and a 3rd round pick over the last 2 days. (Plus swapping Leddy/Panik, but this is still a massive W for the Isles)</div></div>well, no, that's still the whole point. you really think Lou Lamoriello wanted to burn 3 draft picks on dumping Andrew Ladd's contract? hell no. he had to because that's the reality of the salary cap world.
sure, he gets the cap space now to sign Sorokin/Beauviller/Pelech, but he still had to burn assets to do it.
again, to re-iterate, *cap space is king* nowadays.
Forum:
NHL Trades
Jul. 17, 2021 at 4:39 p.m.
Thread:
(ARI/NYI) - Future Considerations for Ladd, 2021 2nd, 2022 2nd, 2023 conditional 3rd
dude cap space is <em>king</em> in the flat salary cap world
how else would the islanders have been mugged for all of their lunch money
Forum:
Site Discussion
Jul. 7, 2021 at 5:39 p.m.
Thread:
Cap Errors Megathread
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RUSProspects</b></div><div>No problem! Noticed couple of more things on the reserve lists that I find a bit confusing, not sure if I'm correct or not:
On the Coyotes reserve list Valentin Nussbaumer is listed as "Indefinite" in terms of draft rights expiry, but, if I remember correctly, Switzerland has signed the transfer agreement with the NHL some time ago, should it still be "Indefinite" then?
On the Blackhawks reserve list Ivan Nalimov is also listed as having right expiry date as "Indefinite", yet he isn't playing in the KHL anymore, as he has signed in the AHL, I suspect it also might be not the "Indefinite" case anymore.</div></div>re: Nussbaumer, i don't think the new transfer agreement that was signed is retroactive to previous drafts, so his rights would still technically qualify as 'indefinite.'
re: Nalimov, he may have an AHL contract, but the reserve lists specifically refer to signing rights for <strong>NHL</strong> contracts. in that respect, Nalimov still hasn't ever signed an NHL contract with the Blackhawks, so his rights should still qualify as 'indefinite.'
Forum:
Site Discussion
Jul. 7, 2021 at 5:35 p.m.
Thread:
Cap Errors Megathread
Jack Drury's new contract with the Hurricanes is listed as a "Standard contract" right now, but I would <em>presume</em> it's actually an ELC.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jun. 18, 2021 at 11:40 p.m.
Thread:
Arizona Coyotes signed Liam Kirk (3 Years / $813,333 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>EmpressKayla</b></div><div>For those who don't know, Perlini's dad was still a Canadian citizen at the time of his birth. Thus, he's considered Canadian, just like how Mikhail Grabovski is considered Belarusian and not German.</div></div>Perlini apparently still thinks of himself as a British hockey player, though, according to Craig Morgan: <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">INTERVIEW: Craig Morgan: 'We understand Liam Kirk is in talks with Arizona Coyotes about an Entry Level Contract'⁰Just been speaking to <a href="https://twitter.com/CraigSMorgan?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">@CraigSMorgan</a> who's the lead writer for <a href="https://t.co/StkgJjjT9y" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://t.co/StkgJjjT9y</a>... and also covers the Coyotes for <a href="https://twitter.com/NHLNetwork?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">@NHLNetwork</a> ⁰🎧<a href="https://t.co/8OdCCFH67M" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://t.co/8OdCCFH67M</a> <a href="https://t.co/bdRBOr8e5N" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">pic.twitter.com/bdRBOr8e5N</a></p>— Peter Spencer (@_PeterSpencer) <a href="https://twitter.com/_PeterSpencer/status/1405249903601848321?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">June 16, 2021</a></blockquote>
Forum:
Toronto Maple Leafs
Sep. 1, 2020 at 12:43 p.m.
Thread:
So, here's an idea.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aadoyle</b></div><div>Murray despite his horrible season still has more value than Campbell. 2 time Stanley cup champion. Murray is probs getting traded for a 1st.
As for Campbell. Leaf fans love him. The guy is super nice, has enormous potential and could become another Markstrom. Just gotta wait and see.</div></div>touché. again, i'm just a bum on the internet and have zero idea as to how contract negotiations are going to pan out.
Forum:
Toronto Maple Leafs
Aug. 31, 2020 at 6:25 p.m.
Thread:
So, here's an idea.
Matt Murray for Jack Campbell.
The Leafs haven't had a trustworthy back-up goaltender to Frederik Andersen since... Curtis McElhinney, of all people, left town. The dude's consistently played in >70% of the team's games since he got there, and I wouldn't be surprised if it's started to wear on him. They need a competent back-up to be able to fill in for games where Andersen can't play. Jack Campbell <em>might</em> be it, but I don't think anybody's that sold on the idea.
The Penguins are cutting salary and generally can't afford to pay both Murray and Tristan Jarry what they're worth. Sure, Murray's had a bad couple of seasons, but he also won 2 Stanley Cups as a rookie, and we saw the kind of leverage that got Cam Ward throughout his career in contract negotiations. The Penguins don't really have that kind of money to toss around at the moment. The consensus seems to be that everyone thinks Murray is the one leaving town at the moment, so the next question is, of course, where does he land?
Now, why would the Penguins want Jack Campbell (outside of the obvious "there's only room for 2 goalies on a roster")? A fairly easy answer: cost certainty. He's signed for 2 more years, and it's all base salary with no bonuses. The Penguins don't have to spend time in RFA negotiations with Campbell like they would with Murray and Jarry, and he'll ultimately be cheaper than whatever money they'd have to pay Murray.
Why would the Leafs want Matt Murray? A not-so-obvious answer. He's been kinda bad for the last couple of seasons, as previously mentioned, and, by bad, I mean <em>bad</em>.
But! He's clearly been good before, good enough to win 2 Stanley Cups (and also AHL Rookie of the Year, Goalie of the Year, as well as breaking the AHL shutout streak record).
And, of course, where did Matt Murray play junior hockey? With the Sault. Ste. Marie (now just Soo) Greyhounds. From 2011 to 2014. When Kyle Dubas and Sheldon Keefe were, respectively, the GM and head coach of the Greyhounds.
If there's anybody that knows Murray well enough to maybe help him get back to how good he used to be as a goaltender, it's Dubas and Keefe. And they might know something that we don't, enough for them to take a roll of the dice on it.
Forum:
Other Leagues
Aug. 1, 2020 at 9:24 a.m.
Thread:
NCAA players jumping ship for Europe
<a href="https://www.vaxjolakers.se/artikel/duv3akd9v-4af7d/welcome-jack-drury" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://www.vaxjolakers.se/artikel/duv3akd9v-4af7d/welcome-jack-drury</a> well, there's the first domino to fall. after the Ivy League said they were cancelling all fall sports for 2020, Jack Drury (#48 overall to the Hurricanes in 2018; 20 G, 39 P in 28 GP last season) jumped ship and signed a 1-year contract with Växjö in the SHL.
i wonder how many others might follow suit, and who.
Forum:
NHL
Jul. 23, 2020 at 12:19 p.m.
Thread:
Best team name
well, now that Seattle <em>actually</em> went and announced that they'd be the Kraken, i think that should be #1.
Forum:
Other Leagues
Jul. 22, 2020 at 3:06 p.m.
Thread:
Should Jack Highes have gone to the NCAA
eh. I mean, the Devils had a lot of issues. just 'cause you're the first overall pick doesn't mean you're automatically Connor McDavid and can haul the team onto your back and carry them out of mediocrity. hockey is, as they say, a team sport, and individual players have less of an impact than in other sports.
if anything, Hughes would've just torn up the NCAA in his freshman year, and we'd have all gone, "why'd he spend a year in the NCAA when he could have gone straight to the NHL?"
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jul. 20, 2020 at 4:54 p.m.
Thread:
Tampa Bay Lightning signed Sean Day (1 Year / $700,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Stanley_Cup_To_Manhattan</b></div><div>Ok well I am not spending my energy on Sean freaking Day lmao. I'm sorry if what I'm saying is detrimental to the forums but I simply go off what I've heard and what I seem to believe makes sense.</div></div>and i'm saying that "what you've heard" probably is just hearsay and rumors and, if anything, based on the personal agendas and biases of the people who started those rumors. it's a pretty poor way to cast judgment on a person.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jul. 20, 2020 at 4:47 p.m.
Thread:
Tampa Bay Lightning signed Sean Day (1 Year / $700,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Stanley_Cup_To_Manhattan</b></div><div>What are you going on about? The kid literally has the intangibles to be a STUD. Those issues are the only explanation to what we've speculated that could be wrong with him.</div></div>again: "speculation."
i mean, maybe he is lazy (which i highly doubt, because athletes are competitive by nature, and, if they were truly lazy, they wouldn't have made it this far to begin with), and maybe he doesn't care about hockey. but these are all maybes. i'm not going to state them with any certainty and proclaim that "he'll never make it to the NHL," because those assertions aren't based on any real, hard evidence that i have. saying these kinds of things without hard evidence just makes me look like a jerk. i'm very likely not even correct in my assertions, which then makes me a mean jerk that doesn't know anything about these players.
this is the Internet, so people like this are everywhere to be found. but, y'know, as a <em>moderator</em> on the CapFriendly forums, it's part of my job to promote a welcoming environment, where we can discuss hockey things without resorting to being <em>mean and spiteful</em>.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jul. 20, 2020 at 4:38 p.m.
Thread:
Tampa Bay Lightning signed Sean Day (1 Year / $700,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Stanley_Cup_To_Manhattan</b></div><div>Everyone says it. Rumors about him not simply not caring enough. Why would NYR terminate his deal if they felt there was any potential left??</div></div>and there's the key word: "rumors."
you look like a pretty mean and spiteful person if you just spread rumors that other people are saying without thinking about it, especially rumors of the negative variety. what good does it really do to spread mean and spiteful rumors like that? does it really make you a better person to do so? i don't personally think so.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jul. 20, 2020 at 4:09 p.m.
Thread:
Tampa Bay Lightning signed Sean Day (1 Year / $700,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Stanley_Cup_To_Manhattan</b></div><div>Day has the skating but is not well conditioned and doesn't care about his profession. Won't play in the NHL.</div></div>do you know him personally well enough to say that with any sort of evidence?
because i wouldn't personally speculate about the physical conditioning or personal motivations of a person i don't know very well. it's unnecessary and frankly pretty mean to do so.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jul. 15, 2020 at 9:44 p.m.
Thread:
New York Islanders signed Ilya Sorokin (1 Year / $2,000,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafs_and_Sens_Fan</b></div><div>The KHL is not as good a league but the money is certainly as good if not better. Russians in the KHL get their money tax free. When they come to America, they lose 50% in taxes.
Top tier Russian free agents have a lot of negotiating power.
He clearly took less than what he could have if he played hardball. I dont think the Islanders let him walk for an extra million or 2 when he could be a franchise goalie. Plus they would want a strong relationship with him so he'd re-sign.</div></div>eh. both sides clearly had something they wanted; the Islanders needed a young goalie in his prime that could potentially be a goalie of the future, Sorokin wanted a shot at the NHL. the 1-year deal at $2M is, honestly, more likely than not because of this whole COVID-19 mess and the loss in HRR that the league's sustaining, which led to the flat salary cap in the new CBA. no team in the league is really in a position to hand out a ginormous contract at the moment.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jul. 15, 2020 at 9:34 p.m.
Thread:
New York Islanders signed Ilya Sorokin (1 Year / $2,000,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafs_and_Sens_Fan</b></div><div>He had a lot of leverage. "Pay me or I stay in the KHL." He just decided not to use it.
That's why teams are afraid of drafting Russian players. They have a lot more leverage because if the KHL.</div></div>that's probably more because there's no transfer agreement in place between the NHL and the KHL, and GMs can never figure out exactly when they can get Russian players to make the move to NA because Russian hockey clubs tend to keep a pretty tight grip on their younger prospects. i wouldn't make it out as "the KHL is just as good an alternative to the NHL," though player agents certainly paint it that way to gain leverage in negotiations.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jul. 15, 2020 at 8:54 p.m.
Thread:
New York Islanders signed Ilya Sorokin (1 Year / $2,000,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafs_and_Sens_Fan</b></div><div>Obviously or else he wouldn't have signed for 2M</div></div>he probably didn't have much leverage to demand more. most RFAs don't, to begin with, and the KHL doesn't consistently produce top-tier goalies. Pavel Francouz was a UFA and had established himself as one of the best goalies in the KHL, and he took a near-league-minimum contract and had to spend a year in the AHL. most GMs are pretty gun-shy about goaltending, especially for goalies that come from European leagues that don't utilize the same rink size.
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