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Eli

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Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 2, 2021 at 7:59 a.m.
Thread: Auston Matthews
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>tea</b></div><div>
i was also clearly joking about matthews, he's a generational talent, and a future hall of famer, but trading adam fox who's probably, at least offensively, the best defenseman in the league, plus his linemate, PLUS three other top prospects including two top 2 picks, PLUS A 1ST ROUND PICK is ridiculous, even for matthews. that's assuming any of the previously mentioned players are touchable, which they aren't. neither team is trading any of them.</div></div>

Okay.. Cool. I agree that Fox isn't leaving New York. When I posted this, I had forgotten (or hadn't read yet? Who knows) that he signed an extension, and I didn't know that he had talked his previous team into trading him to his hometown.

So I posted a different dose of realism on Matthews' value, but you're not gonna like it, either, because the new centerpiece is Zibanejad. I figured, between you saying it made no sense to build a team with Zib at 3C, and Toronto fans above saying it made no sense to trade their only #1C for spare defensemen, probably a more realistic Matthews trade was gonna be Zibanejad and all of the Rangers' best prospects. Not sure on which ones those are, but in the years that they've both been great goal scorers, Matthews has 37 more regular season goals than Zibanejad, and Zib has 37 more than Zucker or Skinner. I don't think Skinner and a 2nd gets the Rangers on the phone, so as a Caps fan, I'm trying to be realistic about how the Ranges and Leafs could work together, here. If you don't want to see it, that's fine. I don't think either side is desperate to trade. On the other hand, a team with Fox, Matthews, Kreider, Panarin, Schneider, Barron, Miller, and Reunanen has a lot of potential. And yes, those are the prospects I didn't trade. :)

anyway, here's a link if you can't help yourself. https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/525316?post_id=2766529
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 2, 2021 at 7:44 a.m.
Thread: Auston Matthews
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>tea</b></div><div>first of all, zibanejad's projected to be the 1c for team sweden. yes backstrom has been good in the playoffs and in internationals, but he's 33 years old, he's not exactly in his prime. the top 2 centers, even if backstrom is healthy, would be zibanejad and pettersson, no question.


now, discussing zibanejads playoff points is pointless, because since the last time he's been in the playoffs (not counting the play-in round) he's gotten significantly better. he was pretty good in the 2017 playoffs, but since then he's gone from a solid 20 goal scorer to one of the best goal scorers in the NHL. another thing of note, zibanejad has been in the 2nd round, i think that immediately makes him a better playoff performer than matthews, until matthews proves otherwise.

i was also clearly joking about matthews, he's a generational talent, and a future hall of famer, but trading adam fox who's probably, at least offensively, the best defenseman in the league, plus his linemate, PLUS three other top prospects including two top 2 picks, PLUS A 1ST ROUND PICK is ridiculous, even for matthews. that's assuming any of the previously mentioned players are touchable, which they aren't. neither team is trading any of them.</div></div>


Since the 2017 playoffs, when Zibanejad became a top six forward with the Rangers, the top five Swedish-born goal scorers in the NHL playoffs are Forsberg, W. Karlsson, Backstrom, Burakovsky, and Hornqvist. Zibanejad is in a six-way tie for 25th. Just in playoff goals in the NHL by guy born in Sweden. Two of the guys he's tied with no longer play in the NHL, including Oscar Lindberg, who got three goals in the second round, when it mattered, rather than just one goal per series, for Zibanejad, in that time.

If you measure from the next year's playoffs, when Zibanejad was a better regular season goal scorer, Backstrom is still in the top five forwards, but Hedman is the team's best goal scorer. Since Hedman plays low on the left point, Sweden could use a center who is good at passing the puck across to someone at that spot. Any ideas? Oh. And in that time, Zibanejad has just one playoff goal, and does not belong in this conversation.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 2, 2021 at 5:47 a.m.
Thread: Auston Matthews
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>tea</b></div><div>who cares about matthews, hes rubbish in the playoffs and now rubbish in the regular season too. id much rather have zibanejad than him</div></div>

Matthews has five more playoff points in one more career playoff game than Zibanejad, 24 in 32 to 19 in 31. Five more. In one more game. Even though he's younger and hasn't been past the first round. Because he at least gets his team there, consistently, and gets a few points each time. How much is five playoff points?

Zibanejad had five points in the six game series that established him as a top six center, the 2017 2nd round loss to the Senators when he moved up from the third line because Rick Nash wasn't producing, the whole team was struggling, and maybe the coaches thought he could do well against his old team. He did fine. Pageau did better, with six points, helping Ottawa win.

That was the series that launched the Senators to the conference finals and in part encouraged the Sharks and Lightning to trade two 1st picks and a prospect each for a couple of defensemen. It also somehow encouraged many teams to overpay for virtually everyone who took a shift at center in that series on either team: Pageau, Hayes, Turris, Stepan, Brassard, Dzingel, and now Zibanejad have each signed at least one contract that some of their teams' fans have eventually, or will eventually come to question. Maybe some team will sign Lindberg for $5M next year? Or Miller at 10M? They were there, too. Don't leave them out, GMs. Lindberg, with three goals and a positive plus/minus, actually did better in that series than Holden, Skjei, Fast, Girardi, Smith, Kreider, or Staal. He was then claimed in the expansion draft, and no longer plays in the NHL, because the Rangers value playoff performance. Clearly.

Anyway, if you take out those five points in six games, Zibanejad in the playoffs has a less impressive 14 points in his other 25 games. But it gets better if you take out his other second round series, when he got zero points in five games against PIttsburgh, and was -6. Wow. So clutch. Can't imagine why the Senators traded him.

And, yes, if you take out every series the Leafs lost, Matthews hasn't been to the playoffs, yet, and is pointless, but if you take out every series Zibanejad played after he was Matthews age, that does not change Zibanejad's numbers much.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>delneggs</b></div><div>The entire post is nonsense. Having Mika center the 3rd line on any team is also pure nonsense. Not worth discussing.</div></div>

I looked up projected lineups for Team Sweden at the Olympics. Everyone thinks Pettersson plays 1st line center, which I'm fine with, and sure enough, everyone's pencilled Zibanejad in at 2nd line center. You said a good way to compare centers is how much they do in the playoffs. And you said there's no team where Zibanejad should center the third line. I'm not sure if he'll be healthy in time for the Olympics, but Nick Backstrom has 108 points in 133 NHL playoff games, and has won the Stanley Cup.

Obviously the Rangers aren't going to build around Backstrom because they can't afford him. Out of what's remotely possible, Matthews is pretty good.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 1, 2021 at 8:31 p.m.
Thread: Two ideas for RHD
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Imagine875948</b></div><div>Tbh, Riikola probably gets dumped in the AHL and comes up every once in a while</div></div>

They don't have a better #7D, then. I think ZAR could be a good fit with them, but his cap doesn't easily work, on their side. Each team is near the limit, wondering what they'll do if a Russian guy on LTIR gets healthy. So I think they'd consider Holl for Riikola, but another taker might be necessary for ZAR.

edit: Interesting. I built it from Tor's side, like you said, waiving Riikola. If Mikheyev is done for the season, and they call up Biega or Dahlstrom at #7, they're under the cap with a one year rental on Aston-Reece, carrying 22 people. Neat. But if they have a chance to bring Mikheyev back, since he already has experience as a top six left wing on their team, I think he'd be the priority, in which case you're more likely looking at Riikola and a pick for Holl. A year ago I would have said a 2nd, but Holl is off to a slow start, and if you're offering cap space to activate Mikheyev, maybe it's a late pick.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 1, 2021 at 8:22 p.m.
Thread: AM to NYR take two
So I looked this over and it turns out Toronto doesn't end up with enough cap space here, to extend Lafreniere and Chytil in two years. They start with 8.5M in cap space, above, but then next year extensions kick in on Rielly and Zibanejad, and take up 5.7M of that. Then also next year, they have to give raises to Kase, Engvall, Kakko, Sandin, and Campbell. That isn't happening. They're downgrading a few spots to make that work. The year after that, Kerfoot and Holl walk, and the team is able to extend one of Lafreniere or Chytil, depending who is doing better. Maybe the cap goes up by then, maybe they get some LTIR cap space, or maybe they make a trade, but it looks like Toronto is better off just keeping Auston Matthews. I'm as surprised as you are, obviously. Tune in next week to find out if water is wet.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 1, 2021 at 8:06 p.m.
Thread: Lafreniere Kakko Fox Riots in the streets
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>tkecanuck341</b></div><div>Even if I did concede that Matthews has a higher value than Fox (I don't, but if I did), your original proposal has Matthews and 3 cap dumps for the reigning Norris trophy winner, two former top 2 overall picks, a solid defenseman in Lindgren, and another 1st round pick. That's insanity. Matthews is a great player, but he's not worth that.

I still contend that Fox for Matthews would be a fair 1-for-1 trade that neither team would agree to.</div></div>

The Leafs aren't trading for guys they won't have cap space to sign. The guys the Rangers have that they could trade for Matthews are due big raises in the next year or two. Mrazek and Kerfoot are good hockey players, but just like the Rangers would have to make big changes to keep Lafreniere and Kakko, so would the Leafs. If the Rangers are giving them that problem, they need to offer a solution. I guess I'm posting this more from the Rangers' perspective of wanting an unavailable top center. I don't think the Leafs have any particular interest in finding out eventually whether or not the Rangers' old GM drafted well.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 1, 2021 at 7:57 p.m.
Thread: AM to NYR take two
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NYR1983</b></div><div>Grow up. I’m giving a very clear suggestion. Make the deal closer in value. You’re selling 2 years of Matthews, he isn’t worth the package you put out there. Now if they are all on a 2 year deal and UFA at the end of it then sure, that’s fair value. You really need to incorporate term and RFA/UFA into the equations.</div></div>

Now that offer sheets are a thing again, your logic says there's no point trading for three prospects who could all just end up playing for Carolina by the time they're good.

Matthews was on pace for 65 goals last year. He's got at least 30 goals in each of the last five years. Zibanajead has broken thirty goals twice, and is 28 years old. Matthews is 24, so realistically, the Rangers have to pay for how much better and more consistent of a goal scorer he is, and how many years younger he is.

Three years of Nils learning to play in the NHL for three years of Brodie in his prime is a steal for the Rangers, by the way. Do you actually think there's a chance Toronto takes less than this, or do you just enjoy typing?
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 1, 2021 at 7:30 p.m.
Thread: Lafreniere Kakko Fox Riots in the streets
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>tea</b></div><div>the way you design your lines just fascinate me. winger nylander as your 1c instead of tavares, two centers on the wings. barron in the lineup but not simmonds, your apparent lack of understanding of roster size. the fact that you traded matthews and mrazek but didnt attempt to figure out any solution to avoid having michael hutchingson as the backup. the thing that really fascinates me is that you think matthews is worth a former 1st overall pick who looks amazing so far, a former 2nd overall pick who looks amazing so far, a top center prospect who also looks amazing so far, a 1st round pick, the reigning norris trophy winner and one of the best dmen in the league and on top of that HIS LINEMATE whos one of the best defensive defenseman in the league. plus youre getting this all while cap dumping. your mind is just so fascinating, and i want to stay as far away from it as possible.</div></div>

I don't know the Rangers' lines that well, but I think Panarin plays well with Strome, and I think Zibanejad or Matthews play well with a wing who clears a little space for them.

Nylander has played center for a few dozen NHL games and he does okay, there. He learned a lot of his game from his dad, who used to center Jagr's line with WSH and later with NYR.

If the Rangers team I built needs more cap space, I figure they bury Ritchie in the minors. Tor needs to dump Ritchie to sign Panarin and Kakko in that one.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 1, 2021 at 7:24 p.m.
Thread: Lafreniere Kakko Fox Riots in the streets
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>tkecanuck341</b></div><div>Don't agree based on positional values. IMO defensemen (especially RHD) are the highest valued players in the league. On equivalent contracts, Matthews would be worth a bit more since he has been consistently elite for several years, while Fox has really only has two good seasons under his belt. However, Fox has a new 7 year deal (not including this season at only $925k!!!), and will therefore be locked up until 2029, while Matthews has the third highest cap hit in the league and will be a UFA in less than 3 years.

I think a 1-for-1 trade is just about right.</div></div>

RHD are scarce, but more and more teams dress four or five LHD and win playoff rounds.

The Rangers trade Fox and they can put Nils on their power play for two years, trade him, and then bring up Schneider on a cheap bridge deal. RHD are scarce, unless you draft a bunch of good ones.

The abstract value of Fox might be higher, but there aren't goal scorers as good as Matthews available, and there aren't American-born centers as good as Matthews available that don't need neck surgery. NYR can market hometown kid Fox pretty well, but Matthews is bigger news. I posted a new version without Fox, even though trading Fox for Matthews is the right move for the team that has Nils and Schneider.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 1, 2021 at 7:12 p.m.
Thread: Auston Matthews
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>tea</b></div><div>its not even close to fair tho lol

its one of the best defensive pairings in the league, along with three of the best prospects in the league, and a 1st round pick. plus youre trading matthews with a super injury prone goalie and two other pretty useless players. what in the world would make you think this is fair?

also posting unclear insults is a lot more fun than posting actual opinions or analysing.</div></div>

Matthews is the best US born goal scorer in the game. The Rangers are owned by a cable company in the biggest TV market in the US. Do you get more highlights from really good puck possession or from forty goals a year? Do you get more ratings from highlights of a takeaway or a breakaway? The Rangers take this. The Leafs probably don't.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 1, 2021 at 6:04 p.m.
Thread: Lafreniere Kakko Fox Riots in the streets
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ragsandbluesfan</b></div><div>Let me help out, Fox clears Matthews</div></div>

Nope. No Leafs fan considers that for half a second. There aren't even any accepting this whole trade, yet. I think it's fair to them, if they can find a different #1C, and if Kakko bounces back, a bit. But it doesn't matter, if:

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NDoody</b></div><div>Fox isn't going anywhere,
He was traded twice cause as a college player he could choose. If he just wanted to play he would have stayed and signed in Calgary or Carolina.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SlickWilly</b></div><div>and now big extension so yeah... hes not goin anywhere</div></div>

Okay. Fox is from New York and got himself traded home, for not much, and he's apparently staying. What else can NYR throw into that part of the deal to try to save it? Half price Trouba?
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 1, 2021 at 5:37 p.m.
Thread: Auston Matthews
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>hazard</b></div><div>I don't think Leafs hang up the phone immediately after hearing Matthews' name lol so you have that going. But I also don't think Kakko and Laf have anywhere near the value that Matthews has. Like if you look at that from the leafs side, then they are stacked on the wings and have an aging JT as their number 1 centre with no supp</div></div>

Built and posted. See above comment for link, and for my agreement that it's not as amazing as it looks, for Toronto. As a side note, Morgan Barron is a weak 4C on a cheap contract. Kerfoot is a 3C on an okay contract. Trading them to clear 2.6M or so of cap helps sign Kakko's bridge deal. Moving Mrazek and Ritche helps sign Lafreniere. The Leafs still need to move Brodie, who has an NTC, to sign Fox. Or they lose Fox to a big offer sheet and get a lot of picks.