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Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 17, 2021 at 11:56 a.m.
Thread: Unloading Salary
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>rpain</b></div><div>I think the Oilers would be hesitant to take Zucker without retainment or sending something back. He's coming of a down year at the age where players slow down. Would be willing to take the risk if he had 1 year left but the 2nd year at $5.5 has a ton of risk to it if he doesn't bounce back. Some retaining or taking a Kassian/Koskinen back and using picks to even up value sounds more realistic.</div></div>

Personally, I have no interest in Kassian. I know some other Pens fans feel differently, though. If Edmonton wasn't interested in this trade, I would see what other teams may have interest. Yes, Zucker had a little bit of an off year but was fighting through injuries. He still, as always, had positive relative possession metrics. His oiGF/60 was much lower than normal this year but not his G/60 really. His assists took the biggest hit which, to me, speaks more toward a bad fit than a diminishing player.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 17, 2021 at 11:35 a.m.
Thread: A Sensible Re-Tool
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>oilsince95</b></div><div>Hmm, don't hate the trade except for Peterson's 2 years past Kassian...Petterson was basically bottom pair minutes this year right? What happened, just lingering injuries?</div></div>

I don't know why Pettersson was looked down upon so much this year. He had a slight backtrack, but was still strong overall.

JFresh's player cards (which use a 3 yr weighted avg) have Pettersson in the 76th percentile for WAR (69th percentile for 2020-21), 63rd for even strength offense, and 80th for even strength defense

Corsica Hockey also has Pettersson as the 42nd ranked LD, basically a mid-level second pair LD.

However, Evolving Hockey has Pettersson with a SPAR (standing points above replacement) value of 0.4 which is tied for 128th, placing him in the low second pairing, high third pairing range.

Looking at on-ice goals for per hour (oiGF/60) and on-ice goals against per hour (oiGA/60),

2020-21
Pettersson had an oiGF/60 of 2.2 (the lowest of his career) and an oiGA/60 of 1.8 (tied with the best of his career) which results in a difference of +0.4.

Over his 4 year career, Pettersson averages an oiGF/60 of 2.8 and an oiGA/60 of 2.2 for a difference of +0.6

I'd say, in general, he's a solid 2nd pairing d-man. If he's paired with someone with a little more offensive acumen, it's better for him. His common partner, John Marino, backslid in regards to his offense this season.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 17, 2021 at 11:14 a.m.
Thread: Making Some Tough Choices
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>edeangel84</b></div><div>Matheson had a better overall season, which is why I went with Pettersson</div></div>

That's debatable. I have two sets of data that put Pettersson substantially ahead of Matheson this year and one set that says the opposite.

JFresh's player cards have:
Pettersson in the 76th percentile for WAR, 63rd for even strength offense, and 80th for even strength defense
Matheson in the 34th percentile for WAR, 26th for even strength offense, and 47th for even strength defense

Corsica Hockey also has:
Pettersson as the 42nd ranked LD
Matheson as the 68th ranked LD

Looking at on-ice goals for per hour (oiGF/60) and on-ice goals against per hour (oiGA/60), you've got an argument this year, but not over their careers:

2020-21
Matheson had an oiGF/60 of 3.4 (the highest of his career) and an oiGA/60 of 2.7 (the best of his career) which results in a difference of +0.7.
Pettersson had an oiGF/60 of 2.2 (the lowest of his career) and an oiGA/60 of 1.8 (tied with the best of his career) which results in a difference of +0.4.


Over his 6 year career, Matheson averages an oiGF/60 of 2.7 and an oiGA/60 of 3.2 for a difference of -0.5
Over his 4 year career, Pettersson averages an oiGF/60 of 2.8 and an oiGA/60 of 2.2 for a difference of +0.6

Over their careers, Pettersson has a slightly better oiGF/60 and a substantially better oiGA/60. He is also younger with a lower cap hit.

If I'm the decision-maker, I keep Pettersson over Matheson. I understand that you are choosing the opposite. Some of it comes down to preference. Matheson is much more exciting. There is no doubt about that.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 16, 2021 at 11:54 a.m.
Thread: New Pens
Thanks for the feedback.

Yes, getting out from Matheson's contract would not be easy.

Coleman and Rust could definitely swap. I just had them in there like that whenever Kapanen was still Malkin's RW.

Fair points on McCabe and Merrill as well. I was mostly going from available UFAs and their performance in regards to JFresh Hockey's Player Cards.

McCabe has a very nice ascension of WAR Percentile (96th percentile). He also is in the 67th percentile for Even Strength Offense and 97th percentile for Even Strength Defense. I knew it would be somewhat of a risk coming off of injury which is why the contract was relatively low, but I'm not aware what the statistics trend looks like the year after an ACL injury.

Merrill also grades out well. 71st percentile for WAR, 98th percentile for Even Strength Defense....but only 6th percentile for Even Strength Offense. Corsica also ranks Merrill as the 107th overall defenseman, putting him squarely into the category of second pairing defenseman and 63rd for LD, which would equate to the top 3rd pairing LD in the league.

Merrill is actually out right now due to injury - "Merrill (undisclosed) will be a game-time decision for Game 2 against the Golden Knights on Wednesday, Eric Engels of Sportsnet.ca reports...Merrill has already missed seven games due to his undisclosed injury but appears to be nearing a return to action." He played the first 5 games against Toronto prior to being injured. It was reported on May 29 that he would miss one to two weeks.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 4, 2021 at 9:26 a.m.