oilers would love to have rust for that price no doubt

Dude...

Why are you getting rid of Rust?

That's a MASSIVE overpayment for Wood.

Would still prefer Pettersson over Zucker if we dealt Wood to Pens

If that was the asking price for Rust the Oilers would do it in a second.

Yup. I've seen a few different Rust proposals and I think people drastically underestimate Rust's value.

A second and third is a pretty fair value. Lavoie was a second rounder and he’s NHL ready

I think you can get more. He may only have one more year on his RFA contract, but $3.5M for one year with a player like him is huge. I'm not saying this as a Pens' fan, but Rust may be one of, if not the best value forward in the NHL not on an ELC.

If we do not reach an extend with Rust he’s going to walk as a UFA. Why would we wait to lose him for nothing in that case? Zucker’s contract is pretty bad so to get Wood who’s on a pretty decent contract we would need to move Zucker. I do not like trading Legare but what else do we have to offer them?

Rust is one of my 3 or 4 favorites on this team but he’s definitely not the best value cap hit outside of ELC. MacKinnon is about 3/4 million dollars underpaid.

I mean, you're making a completely different argument now. I never said let him walk for nothing. I'm saying they can do better than the trade you're proposing. The Pens, having him for one more year at a ridiculously friendly cap-hit, are dealing from a position of strength, not weakness.

Wait… Rust can play well on the left?? Why didn’t anyone tell me!! I’m here like “We don’t need him he plays on the RW”, but then I get from this post that he can play either wing!

Yes we are but I said from the get go the entire idea of trading him is solely based off not being able to resign him. When a guy that valuable doesn’t resign in the offseason before he’s a UFA, it means you either better move him or be prepared to pay big the following summer when teams with a ton of cap space pay him and Rust at 30 years old will be looking for the mega contract of his career

He plays on the RW because we have Jake on the left but both of them could switch wings if needed.

Right, and I'm not disagreeing on your rationale for moving him. I'm disagreeing on the return.

We could get a first and a more marginal prospect. I’d rather have a young guy like Lavoie who is ready to start playing in the NHL. If he and Poulin can make an impact for us that’s a huge deal because cup contending teams almost always have a impact player or two on ELC’s. Tampa is a weird exception

I don't agree. I think the Pens could get a 1st and good prospect. I think how good Rust actually is gets lost because we have Guentzel. I don't think Jake is THAT much better than Guentzel; he's definitely better, but it's not a massive difference.

I'm not sure I understand the Seattle one. Are the Penguins paying Seattle (with a second) to take Pettersson? I'm assuming ZAR is their pick.

Yes I forgot to write that part

Wtf? ... Why can't we send the whole lineup to SEA?

I'd probably disagree on calling Lavoie NHL ready. He'll be in the AHL next year for sure if he stays in the Oilers organization. Benson is NHL ready and needs to make the jump this year if he's going to do it. Lavoie has the tools but probably just needs another year to adapt tot he pro game. I'd do a 2nd, Lavoie, and another pick + prospect. Rust is on a good value deal but I'd shy away from the 1st. If the Oilers were picking into the mid 20s I'd entertain it but at 19 I think they're still better off making the selection.

Rust is gonna want to stay in PIT which means he'll take less money than what hes asking, hes not a greedy player. Hell want 4-5 mil and since he wants to stay, we can get him for probably a little over 4 mil. Plus with Letang and Malkin expiring, they'll also want less money to stay in PIT, and they'll get less money than what they have now no matter what. Them two itself will already save us at least 3 mil, most likely more because they want to stay and they will take less money like I've been saying. Rust will remain a penguin this year, next year, and years to come. Even when Crosbys contract expires, he will probably take 5 mil because of how much he loves the organization and franchise. That goes with Malkin, Letang, Rust, Guentzel. The only players I see the pens trading this year is Zucker, Pettersson, Rikola, maybe McCann, maybe Matheson, and maybe desmith.

I think Pettersson would be worth something in return, and obviously the 2nd pick as well. If you have to pay to buyout a contract, I'd go with Matheson. Based on age and historical performance, Pettersson is more valuable.

Matheson had a better overall season, which is why I went with Pettersson

That's debatable. I have two sets of data that put Pettersson substantially ahead of Matheson this year and one set that says the opposite.

JFresh's player cards have:
Pettersson in the 76th percentile for WAR, 63rd for even strength offense, and 80th for even strength defense
Matheson in the 34th percentile for WAR, 26th for even strength offense, and 47th for even strength defense

Corsica Hockey also has:
Pettersson as the 42nd ranked LD
Matheson as the 68th ranked LD

Looking at on-ice goals for per hour (oiGF/60) and on-ice goals against per hour (oiGA/60), you've got an argument this year, but not over their careers:

2020-21
Matheson had an oiGF/60 of 3.4 (the highest of his career) and an oiGA/60 of 2.7 (the best of his career) which results in a difference of +0.7.
Pettersson had an oiGF/60 of 2.2 (the lowest of his career) and an oiGA/60 of 1.8 (tied with the best of his career) which results in a difference of +0.4.


Over his 6 year career, Matheson averages an oiGF/60 of 2.7 and an oiGA/60 of 3.2 for a difference of -0.5
Over his 4 year career, Pettersson averages an oiGF/60 of 2.8 and an oiGA/60 of 2.2 for a difference of +0.6

Over their careers, Pettersson has a slightly better oiGF/60 and a substantially better oiGA/60. He is also younger with a lower cap hit.

If I'm the decision-maker, I keep Pettersson over Matheson. I understand that you are choosing the opposite. Some of it comes down to preference. Matheson is much more exciting. There is no doubt about that.