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HockeyScotty

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Forum: NHLMar. 20 at 3:54 p.m.
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #5: The Final Stretch
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NorthernLeafsFan05</b></div><div>Its really not though. The worst teams in the league are the ones that get eliminated from playoff contention first. Those first few teams have a tremendous headstart on other teams. I detest the idea of having to watch ~20 games of a team that has literally zero reason to be playing</div></div>

This also spreads out the excitement of the draft lottery (30 minutes even when it's dragged out as reality TV) across the entire stretch run at the end of March/early April.

Teams at the top of the standings take a much earned rest, or play for seeding, but fans of bad teams are scoreboard watching, invested in other games, just as they would if they were fighting for a playoff spot.

Anyways, take the worst team to complete a season (sorry 2019-20 Wings) in the post-lockout NHL: The 2016-17 Avalanche
Even in a very strange year, standings-wise, where the West had a large gap between the 8 playoff teams and the 6(!) non-playoff teams, so all Western teams were being eliminated unusually early, that Colorado team still picks 4th, exactly where they picked under the lottery system, even though they had a dreadful 0.219 points percentage after their elimination, <strong>the truly awful teams get eliminated early enough to accumulate enough points to pick high in the draft anyways, and there is never an incentive for the GM to tank.</strong>
Winnipeg's 6 game winning streak to end the season after they had been eliminated, instead of actively hurting them by lowering their draft pick from 8 to 13 (after lotteries and Vegas), would have given them the first overall pick. Conversely, Vancouver's 1-8-0 performance after elimination should not have helped them move up the draft board.

2017 Draft Order, Gold System, not including Vegas or lotteries in comparisons
Winnipeg, up from 11th (12 points in 6 games)
Arizona, steady at 2nd (9 points in 10 games)
Los Angeles, up from 9th (9 points in 7 games)
Colorado, down from 1st (7 points in 16(!) games)
Dallas, up from 7th (6 points in 7 games)
Detroit, steady at 6th (5 points in 6 games)
New Jersey, down from 4th (4 points in 8 games)
Florida, steady at 8th (4 points in 5 games)
Philadelphia, up from 12th (4 points in 3 games)
Carolina, steady at 10th (3 points in 4 games)
Vancouver, down from 2nd (2 points in 9 games)
Buffalo, down from 5th (2 points in 5 games)
Tampa Bay, steady at 13th (2 points in 1 game)
Islanders, steady at 14th (2 points in 1 game)
Forum: NHLMar. 12 at 6:55 p.m.
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #5: The Final Stretch
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>zk97</b></div><div>Vegas is going to be nasty come playoff time. I think they're gonna be repeat winners and then maybe get a three-peat.
Like who's beating this:

Hertl-Eichel-Stone
Barbashev-Stephenson-Marchessault
Mantha-Karlsson-Roy
Dorofeyev-Howden-Amadio
(Carrier, Kolesar, Cotter)

Hanifin-Pietrangelo
McNabb-Theodore
Hague-Martinez
(Whitecloud, Hutton)

Hill
Thompson</div></div>

I think its

Barbashev-Eichel-Marchessault
Stephenson-Hertl-Stone
Amadio-Karlsson-Mantha
Howden-Roy-Kolesar

D is tricky but I dont think besides Theodore VGK HC gonna play guys on their offside

Like its either

McNabb-Theo
Hanifin-Pietrangelo
Martinez-Whitecloud

or

McNabb-Theo
Hanifin-Pietrangelo
Hague-Whitecloud


Basically almost a repeat of last years lines but Hertl = 2c and Howden on 4th line with Manthan instead of Smith

But yea when healthy they the team to beat out west
Forum: NHLMar. 8 at 1:19 p.m.
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #4: Deadline is Approaching
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CantStopWontStop</b></div><div>I couldn’t possibly disagree more.

Buchnevich is as mid as guentzel. I never said he wasn’t.

Neither of these players are elite. They’re adequate. They don’t take over the game. They do their job. They’re given 100% of the good icetime. They have the best linemate, matchups, special teams, and d pairings possible. In guentzels case he literally has one of the best all time nhlers as his center. They’re good enough to do the job and that’s about it.</div></div>

"Mid" is a weird description for either of them. Michael Bunting is the one who is literally "mid". Now onto Jake, the worst thing about this "Crosby made Jake" take you and many others go on is that you can't answer a rather simple follow up question, if Crosby can make a guy a top line LW who is a ppg playoff performer and near that for is career... Why aren't all the other wingers who played with Sid on that level? Why is Conor Sheary who came into the team at the exact same time as Jake a bottom liner on near league minimum now? Shouldn't he be a top line player too? It's almost like you have to have skills to play with one of the greats of all time. Jake is objectively the best winger to ever play with Sid. The numbers back that up. Clearly then this very lazy take of "Sid made him and he is overrated" falls apart.
Forum: NHLMar. 7 at 9:37 p.m.
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #4: Deadline is Approaching
I think Grier has done a fantastic job with the Duclair trade.

1) basically two thirds (equal to Tarasenko) - a good RD prospect for SJ which needs RD; and he’s 21 so he’ll have a lot of time to grow in SJ and the best pick they could get from Tampa realistically.

2) Duke has consistently voiced interest in SJ and while their being no deal on the table (obviously) he said in the last 24hrs he would return to SJS in the offseason is they would have him and if there was no deal out there for him.

3) ..I actually don’t think Duclair will stay in Tampa so it would come down to a new front runner to give Duclair a UFA deal.

4) And Grier has voiced recently not waning long term expensive UFA’s which means: IF DUKE was to resign in SJ

- Duke will return to a deal that’s probably 2-4 years
- At an AAV of probably 4.5-3.75m

So if the stars align for a Duclair in Teal - we could see Thompson, a 3rd for Duclair to return at a 4 years - 4mAAV deal.

Which would make an already great deal by Grier - even more incredible.
Forum: NHL TradesMar. 7 at 9:39 a.m.
Thread: (COL/BUF) - Byram for Mittelstadt
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>worldwidesensei</b></div><div>Yea, exactly. People are putting way too much emphasis on whether players are left or right-handed. Dahlin plays all over the ice. Power can too. The way more important thing is how defensive partners play together.
</div></div>

It's a thing and that is why people value it. Saying people put too much value in scoring goals is the same energy. It matters. A LOT.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LuckyMoneyPuck</b></div><div>I played NCAA level.
Being on your off hand is a huge deal. You can just stop right there.
Not only is the curve of your stick on the inside which messes up your passing but it offers no advantage.

Playing your off side is not better for 1 timers, your natural hold on your natural stick is facing the wall.
You have to turn to open the blade up which puts you out of position as a defenseman., Instead of your back being toward your own net it's now toward the wall.
This is hockey 101 and why very few players play their off side and those who do are not better at it than they are on their natural side.</div></div>

This should be common sense here but sadly many have never touched a puck or dont understand what they are watching
Forum: NHLMar. 6 at 9:24 p.m.
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #4: Deadline is Approaching
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Pompadour_de_Armstrong</b></div><div>My old person hot-take will continue to be that the issue is a relatively new fascination and is overrated. Mostly a comfort level from guys who never played off hand side. It does make a difference on how you will approach a play (and especially on the PP), but no-one capable of playing top-four minutes should be unable to shift to the other side. It just takes some adjustment to get comfortable and retrain the brain a bit. Wouldn't be too keen on asking a young guy still getting confidence at this level to make changes to his game at the same time or ask a fringe defenseman to change his game around, but most guys should be able to get comfortable with a bit of time.
Doesn't mean guys won't have preferences, or that some guys won't play better on one side or the other, or that you shouldn't try to line up with those preferences in mind. Just think it's a relatively new coaching obsession to grab a dedicated number of L/R defensemen as opposed to grabbing the best four defensemen you can ice and try to find the right mix and partners for them regardless of handedness.</div></div>

Most strategies rely on having the correct hand at the correct place at the correct time. Funneling pucks out of your zone or wrapping around the boards, is faster and more accurate on the forehand.
A defenseman playing the wrong hand doesn't only affect his own play either. Everyone has to make sure he has the time to avoid getting crossed up and adjust how they move the puck to that player.
On their own, there are a lot of little details which it affects. Combined it can cause significant issues.
Forum: NHL TradesMar. 6 at 8:20 p.m.
Thread: (COL/BUF) - Byram for Mittelstadt
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Dahlin_On_Me</b></div><div>Like Mitts and will miss him. It will be interesting to see how he does on a better team. As far as Byram, haven’t seen him play but since he’s a 4th overall I’d guess he’s an upgrade for Sabres D. Concerning about his injury history however.

Looks good for Av’s at the moment but I think this deal will age well for the Sabres especially if Mitts isn’t resigned. Probably will he’s class.

For those on about the LH / RH D stuff, it’s not that big of a deal and if you can’t play both side you probably shouldn’t be playing in the NHL. Im rubbish but as a LH Defender myself I actually prefer to play in the Right. It’s better for one timers and poke checks. It’s a little harder on breakouts when you need to thread the needle on the backhand (only if there is o time and room) to your forwards. A pro should be able to manage.</div></div>

I played NCAA level.
Being on your off hand is a huge deal. You can just stop right there.
Not only is the curve of your stick on the inside which messes up your passing but it offers no advantage.

Playing your off side is not better for 1 timers, your natural hold on your natural stick is facing the wall.
You have to turn to open the blade up which puts you out of position as a defenseman., Instead of your back being toward your own net it's now toward the wall.
This is hockey 101 and why very few players play their off side and those who do are not better at it than they are on their natural side.
Forum: NHLMar. 6 at 6:43 p.m.
Forum: NHLMar. 6 at 6:24 p.m.
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #4: Deadline is Approaching
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HockeyScotty</b></div><div>I think the speed of the game has required much quicker reactions and therefore the extra half-second of pivoting to get an off-hand player to prime passing/shooting position it does matter. Playing a puck with pressure, I do think it matters. Would love to see some analysis on it.</div></div>

I get the arguments for. I understand it. I just say for my money, give me the best four defensemen I can ice and I'll worry about handedness later. If I had "too many" good LD or RD defensemen, I would not care. I just want the best collection of defensemen. I'm not worried about trading someone away just to have to go pick up someone with the correct handedness.
Forum: NHLMar. 6 at 5:17 p.m.
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #4: Deadline is Approaching
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HockeyScotty</b></div><div>The Avs had been playing Bo a lot at RHD to start the season and there were some growing pains; it did settle down but it wasn't the best Bo we had. He stated that it took him awhile to get comfortable there but we ended up moving him back to 3rd pair LD for the rest of the season to date. He also has to find a "perfect partner" that will mesh with his playing style otherwise it doesn't work. Eric Johnson was the most successful partner he had and now they are both in Buffalo so hopefully that will help out.

What is in the water by Lake Superior that teams think lefty/righty on defense doesn't matter. 3 of the only teams in the league that have no balance are Buffalo, Toronto, and Ottawa?</div></div>

It’s physically pains me to move a LShot D into the RD slots.

There’s a reason why even if hockey were to “lose positions” the game naturally would still stick inline with hand types and your core D will always be 3L and 3R.

<img class="for_img" src="https://media.tenor.com/uIXA-brBP9UAAAAM/thanos-perfectlybalanced.gif" alt="thanos-perfectlybalanced.gif">
Forum: NHLMar. 6 at 3:30 p.m.
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #4: Deadline is Approaching
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Pompadour_de_Armstrong</b></div><div>I don't think they were targeting Byram or a D, but I think they were ready to move on from Mittelstad and that was the best offer. Byram has untapped potential, and I think they "won" regardless of the depth chart. But health and consistency are still big question marks. They can always balance the roster with another trade later if they need to.</div></div>

You can’t trade Power or Dahlin

Which leaves Samuelsson - who isn’t really a player you’re excited to trade.

You can get a fine deal on a great car that needs a little care (let’s say a Mercedes (Byram)),

but if you’ve got 3 mint condition cars (a Lambo, a Porsche, and Ferrari)… it can still be a “good deal” on paper that results in a unused and forgotten car, making it a unnecessary deal and potentially a unwise investment.
Forum: NHLMar. 3 at 1:05 p.m.
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #4: Deadline is Approaching
Ufko, Morrow…
From sounds of UMass final home game, it really sounds like it will be the last for Captain Ryan Ufko. Pre-game sounded like a fairwell…coaches comments after the game sounded like the praise a coach gives his retiring captain. Ufko is still a junior, but is likely to sign with Nashville once the playoffs are over. He is a good one…I would not be surprised to see him make the jump right away.

What is notable in all this…their other star junior dman, Scott Morrow, did not seem to get the “send off” that Ufko got. Maybe they think he is coming back? Carolina tried signing him last Spring and were unsuccessful. There has been talk for a couple years that he may be headed toward NCAA free agency (his rights expire in 2025). And Carolina not having a AHL franchise does not help. If Morrow returns to UMass for his senior season, that could be a pretty good signal he is walking.

Graf, Quillan…
A friend who is on a NCAA coaching staff told me he knows nothing, but has heard Graf and Quillan may sign as a pair for Eastern Conference non-playoff team, but may be just a pitch from their ‘advisor’ (agent). But if true, I’d guess Pittsburgh maybe. (Conventional thought has always been Quillan is going to Boston).

That’s all. Thought I’d share.