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KUUUCH

KUUUCH
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Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 19, 2019 at 2:09 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 17, 2019 at 8:55 a.m.
Thread: Ristolainen suggested by KUUUCH
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>wojme</b></div><div>That's a hard no from me</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PenGoater99</b></div><div>Tampa gets fleeced in this deal.

What a stupid trade</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hedman77</b></div><div>this ain't it chief</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GMTD</b></div><div>Betterall would try to keep a straight face as his innards are jumping for joy. What a steal. Sergachev is a young Ristolainen at a bargain price, Miller fills in the #2 center spot, Callahan may be just what the Sabres need to settle the team down after tough losses. Let's make a deal! :cheers</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LGRW_</b></div><div>people clearly don't see ristolainen's value, and the fact callahan's contract will kill this team</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LGRW_</b></div><div>I think Sergachev and Callahan straight up for Ristolainen would be fair. Buffalo may need to add in a piece like Sheary as well if Sergachev and Risatolainen aren't equal or very close in value. Callahan probably has zero value, as he provides so little on-ice value (though I've heard he's a great veteran presence/leader).</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sabres89</b></div><div>Yeah, id pass too. Its still a cap league.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KUUUCH</b></div><div>First of all, I said Mittelstadt (who I'd prefer) or Nylander ... And I'd rather send a 1st or a top fwd prospect over Sergy or Foote. But Risto (w/ 2m retained) &amp; Mittlestadt for Cally, 1st/Katchouk, Miller? Send it.

Has anyone on here even attempted to make the cap work for Tampa next season?? :shakehead Here are some scenario examples to understand the logic of the trade...

Scenario 1: Callahan doesn't get traded or bought out. Let's assume we don't resign anyone besides Coburn @ 1m cap hit. Aside from keeping Cally, this would clear the most cap without making a trade.
Result: Assuming the cap ceiling is 83m next year, that'd leave us with 6.36m cap space to resign Pointer (which most believe is too low), and that's just accounting for 12 fwds, 6 dmen, 2 goalies...

Scenario 2: Callahan gets bought out. Like scenario 1, Coburn resigns @ 1m cap hit. This would leave us with 9.5m cap space (which most believe is enough, but not enough for other RFAs).
Result: 18 skater &amp; 2 goalies get locked up under the cap ceiling, and Cally's buyout carries a 1.56m cap hit for 2020-21, then the buy out penalties are over (Good deal if you ask me).

Scenario 3: Callahan gets traded (TB doesn't retain any of his cap hit), no other contracts come back to TB, and we'd have 12.16m in cap space (enough to re-sign Paquette and/or Erne, along with Pointer ofc), which is the big objective. Re-signing Point isn't the challenge, as I showed in the first 2 scenarios... Resigning the other expiring RFAs, on top of Point, is the challenge.
Result: Tampa trades an asset (value unknown, I'd predict 4th rd pick - 1st rd pick), but clears up even more space for our RFA's.

Scenario 4: Callahan gets traded (TB doesn't retain any of his cap hit) along with a 1st rd pick.... BUF sends back Ristolainen (w/ 2m retained).
Result: Leaves us with 9.76m in cap space (likely only be enough to re-sign Point), which would be 12 fwds, 6 dmen, 2 goalies.

Scenario 5: Callahan gets traded (TB doesn't retain any of his cap hit) along with a 1st rd pick &amp; J.T. Miller.... BUF sends back Ristolainen (w/ 2m retained) and Mittlestadt.
Result: Leaves us with 14.1m in cap space... Plenty for Pointer, Erne, Paquette, which would put us at 14 fwds under the ceiling (assuming 2 crunch players come up)... Also puts us in better cap situation coming into 2020-21...

Ristolainen @ 3.4m for the next 3 years is the highlight of the trade. With the NTC stockpile in Tampa, Miller is the unfortunate odd man out. If you think the asking price for Cally should be high, just check the buyout penalty and ask yourself again. 1st round pick tops.

Breaking the trade down: Personally I think Mittlestadt is pretty close, if not higher than Miller regarding trade value (Mittlestadt could break out any year now). I think Cally &amp; a 1st for Risto @ 3.4m is a no brainer. What's the problem?</div></div>

Another well thought out replay. Yes you did say Mittelstadt and Ristolainen. IMO BriseBois would do better if he tried to move Callahan and Gourde or Miller in separate deals. It is too complicated to do this in deal. One year of Callahan's cap to team with cap space could be had for minimal assets, certainly not much more than a Tampa 2nd. Then BriseBois could negotiate a fair trade for Miller or Gourde. Trying to mix the two will most like over value the impact of taking on Callahan's salary and therefore diminish other assets involved in the deal.
I would like to add, IMO Betterall will not be very active trying to sign UFA's this summer. He does not have a lot of cap space and if he signed one he may need to expose a valuable player to Seattle in the draft. Therefore, there may be interest for the Sabres to take on Callahan for a very modest addition. Maybe Callahan and 2019 2nd for O'Regan or another prospect.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 16, 2019 at 3:44 p.m.
Thread: Trade suggested by GMTD
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KUUUCH</b></div><div>Well Cally is currently riding the #13 fwd spot in Tampa. Paquette has really taken his game to another level this year, he's great at getting under opponent's skin &amp; he's been contributing enough for his role. Erne is another power forward that can replace Cally's physicality. It'll be interesting to see if anything happens between TBL &amp; BUF. Time will tell, thanks for the discussion! Cheers</div></div>

TBH, BriseBois could buy out Callahan instead of trying to trade him. If he is traded as a dump it would not cost very much, a TBL 2nd (which is about the same as a Buffalo third) or a "B-" prospect, not much at all. So many people think it will cost a lot, but Tampa does not have a great record because they over pay.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 16, 2019 at 9:49 a.m.
Thread: Trade suggested by GMTD
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KUUUCH</b></div><div>Who's DATM?
Yea but wouldn't the 2nd be most of the value attached to taking on Cally? I wonder if the league would allow BUF to retain just the 2019-20 portion of Risto's salary.
For sure, the email is already in the works ;)</div></div>

Dumb Ass Tim Murray, who engineered the worse NHL rebuild in the history of hockey. Retention has to be over the entire duration. If Ristolainen and Callahan were being traded for each other, other players would have to be involved which would only diminish Tampa's march to the cup. That is why think Girgensons, Bogosian (with 50% retention) and 2019 3rd for Callahan a roster player chosen by BriseBois and a high pick. Girgensons is a cheaper version of Callahan, the roster player is needed for balance, and at half price Bogosian is actually a bargain. I do not know Tampa's roster as well as you, but if the Bolts have another player to fit the Callahan role, then Girgensons should not be included. I do not see how Ristolainen would help the Bolts this year, with out weakening the team elsewhere. I am just spitballin' here.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 15, 2019 at 5:18 p.m.
Thread: Trade suggested by GMTD
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KUUUCH</b></div><div>So you think Risto has essentially peaked? I'd take Bogosian but would prefer Risto tbh. Realistically, what trade do you think Buff would send? Like would it be Risto or Bogo?</div></div>

This is a two sided trade, TBL was looking for a RHD, but also would like to sign Point. I cannot see any way Betterall would retain any of Ristolainen's salary, so I switched to Bogosian. IMO (of course my opinion may be biased) half of his salary would give BriseBois more room than Ristolainen. Then in a separate trade he could trade either Gourde or Miller. As I said above Buffalo adds their third from this year, added to the value of Bogosian, added to the value of making cap space, would make the trade Bogosian and 2019 3rd for Callahan and 2019 or 20 first. Maybe Buffalo needs to add.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 15, 2019 at 9:26 a.m.
Thread: Trade suggested by GMTD
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KUUUCH</b></div><div>No problem, I love discussing hockey with other knowledgeable fans that know to how to converse without being a jack@ss lmao.

Who knows what the NHL GMs think of Risto, but after reading what the Capfriendly community has to say, it sounds like he's got more than enough hype &amp; value attached to his name. So I wouldn't be too nervous about Betterall failing to receive a fair return for Risto. I know I pointed out his negatives, but he's still got a bit of arguments on his side (most attempting to defend/refute negative arguments like mine lol). He's still only 24 (far from old but he's almost, if not already, past his prime). If his end of season stats were increasing every year, he'd probably have a higher trade value. At least for me, if I was trading for him. But at the same time, he really didn't take long at all to start producing in the NHL... It's pretty impressive for an 8th overall pick to make his NHL debut the following year (Buffalo fans might've wished he stayed down another year lol, but you get my point). And on top of that, it only took him his 2nd full NHL season to score 40+ points (might've been his best year all around). Hedman didn't reach .5/ppg (points per game) until his 4th season. However, Hedman has since posted .742 ppg in his most recent 430 NHL games, which is why I brought up &amp; determined that Risto's "plateau" of finalized season stats might be a minor "peak-indicator" that other GMs will most likely consider when negotiating for him... But Heddy's also 4 years older, so it really isn't fair to rule out a player's "peak-ETA" until age 26 at the soonest. Jeff Petry was drafted in 2006. Made his NHL Debut in 2010-11. Posted his career high for single season pts with 25 pts in 2012. That was his best yr until 2016-17, when he posted 3 solid seasons in a row with 28 pts, 42 pts, &amp; 41 pts this yr (season hasn't ended yet). So his peak was (or for now is) age 31. Granted he's the #2 worst plus / minus leader behind Risto, he's proven he can put up 40 pts. I was just trying to use a good dman example, there's plenty of other notable NHL late bloomers.

So Risto has all of that available for arguing his worth lol. He's also top 20 in NHL defenseman points since 2016-17. And clearly he's a big kid @ 6'4 215 lbs, so he's got the "can't teach size" argument too. You can build a pretty appealing resume for the guy, these are the thing's I'd bring up if I were trading him.

But like I said before, the biggest factor for him specifically is that plus / minus. And I'll be the first to admit it, plus / minus stats can very much paint an ugly picture on the stat-sheet's of quality NHL players. Especially with how Buffalo has performed over the past 5-10 years (no offense to BUF, we all gotta rebuild at some point). But ultimately, if you're looking at the names on the negative portion of plus / minus dman leaders in the whole NHL over past 10 years... Not only is he the most negative overall, he has a lead, a big lead. Only 3 guys with -100 or worse... -102, -110, &amp; -136 for Risto.

I think he'll be able to retrieve at least a 1st/2nd rounder + roster player / solid prospect. Depends on the teams involved and their needs. Sorry for rambling on hahaha. GO BOLTS!</div></div>

That was most enlightening. I know I so not have all of hockey knowledge so I try to glean information from contributors. I rarely disagree with comments and try to find common ground or areas of agreement (well unless I post a trade like Reinhart and Scandella for Nugent-Hopkins and Larsson and listen to the Buffalo contingent explain to me how Buffalo is getting ripped off). I know a contributor as you knows your team better than I ever would, so I listen. TBH, I do not share my fellow Sabre contingent’s view of Ristolainen. I do not think he is as bad as you initially indicated, but I did not think his future was a bright as you say it may be. That is why I thought maybe Ristolainen was not part of the trade discussion but rather Bogosian. He is steady RHD defenseman more in the mold of Colburn, but with a little more offensive skill, who could be had for a lot less than many other defensemen. I jumped to the conclusion that Betterall may have been targeting Sergachev and may have been offering Bogosian, Beaulieu (to take the LHD roster spot of Sergachev) and a first for Callahan and Sergachev (I thought because his performance level dipped from last year, maybe BriseBois would consider trading him). Then I speculated Bogosian, Girgensons and first for Callahan and Gourde or Miller. Girgensons being an inexpensive version of Callahan, Betterall retaining Bogosian’s salary would help. Finally, I thought, Bogosian (50% retention) and Girgensons for Callahan a roster player of your choice and a first. I know a first may sound great but it is really only an early second, and the addition of Bogosian plus cutting the cap may equal a first, but I may have been dreaming here, I guess it all depends on how much value Bogosian has at half his salary. Finally, go Bolts, I hope BriseBois can do half as well as Yzerman. So far I am really please with Betterall but he inherited a mess. I posted a Sabres' team and even though they are trending toward last place <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KUUUCH</b></div><div>No problem, I love discussing hockey with other knowledgeable fans that know to how to converse without being a jack@ss lmao.

Who knows what the NHL GMs think of Risto, but after reading what the Capfriendly community has to say, it sounds like he's got more than enough hype &amp; value attached to his name. So I wouldn't be too nervous about Betterall failing to receive a fair return for Risto. I know I pointed out his negatives, but he's still got a bit of arguments on his side (most attempting to defend/refute negative arguments like mine lol). He's still only 24 (far from old but he's almost, if not already, past his prime). If his end of season stats were increasing every year, he'd probably have a higher trade value. At least for me, if I was trading for him. But at the same time, he really didn't take long at all to start producing in the NHL... It's pretty impressive for an 8th overall pick to make his NHL debut the following year (Buffalo fans might've wished he stayed down another year lol, but you get my point). And on top of that, it only took him his 2nd full NHL season to score 40+ points (might've been his best year all around). Hedman didn't reach .5/ppg (points per game) until his 4th season. However, Hedman has since posted .742 ppg in his most recent 430 NHL games, which is why I brought up &amp; determined that Risto's "plateau" of finalized season stats might be a minor "peak-indicator" that other GMs will most likely consider when negotiating for him... But Heddy's also 4 years older, so it really isn't fair to rule out a player's "peak-ETA" until age 26 at the soonest. Jeff Petry was drafted in 2006. Made his NHL Debut in 2010-11. Posted his career high for single season pts with 25 pts in 2012. That was his best yr until 2016-17, when he posted 3 solid seasons in a row with 28 pts, 42 pts, &amp; 41 pts this yr (season hasn't ended yet). So his peak was (or for now is) age 31. Granted he's the #2 worst plus / minus leader behind Risto, he's proven he can put up 40 pts. I was just trying to use a good dman example, there's plenty of other notable NHL late bloomers.

So Risto has all of that available for arguing his worth lol. He's also top 20 in NHL defenseman points since 2016-17. And clearly he's a big kid @ 6'4 215 lbs, so he's got the "can't teach size" argument too. You can build a pretty appealing resume for the guy, these are the thing's I'd bring up if I were trading him.

But like I said before, the biggest factor for him specifically is that plus / minus. And I'll be the first to admit it, plus / minus stats can very much paint an ugly picture on the stat-sheet's of quality NHL players. Especially with how Buffalo has performed over the past 5-10 years (no offense to BUF, we all gotta rebuild at some point). But ultimately, if you're looking at the names on the negative portion of plus / minus dman leaders in the whole NHL over past 10 years... Not only is he the most negative overall, he has a lead, a big lead. Only 3 guys with -100 or worse... -102, -110, &amp; -136 for Risto.

I think he'll be able to retrieve at least a 1st/2nd rounder + roster player / solid prospect. Depends on the teams involved and their needs. Sorry for rambling on hahaha. GO BOLTS!</div></div>

That was most enlightening. I know I so not have all of hockey knowledge so I try to glean information from contributors. I rarely disagree with comments and try to find common ground or areas of agreement (well unless I post a trade like Reinhart and Scandella for Nugent-Hopkins and Larsson and listen to the Buffalo contingent explain to me how Buffalo is getting ripped off). I know a contributor as you knows your team better than I ever would, so I listen. TBH, I do not share my fellow Sabre contingent’s view of Ristolainen. I do not think he is as bad as you initially indicated, but I did not think his future was a bright as you say it may be. That is why I thought maybe Ristolainen was not part of the trade discussion but rather Bogosian. He is steady RHD defenseman more in the mold of Colburn, but with a little more offensive skill, who could be had for a lot less than many other defensemen. I jumped to the conclusion that Betterall may have been targeting Sergachev and may have been offering Bogosian, Beaulieu (to take the LHD roster spot of Sergachev) and a first for Callahan and Sergachev (I thought because his performance level dipped from last year, maybe BriseBois would consider trading him). Then I speculated Bogosian, Girgensons and first for Callahan and Gourde or Miller. Girgensons being an inexpensive version of Callahan, Betterall retaining Bogosian’s salary would help. Finally, I thought, Bogosian (50% retention) and Girgensons for Callahan a roster player of your choice and a first. I know a first may sound great but it is really only an early second, and the addition of Bogosian plus cutting the cap may equal a first, but I may have been dreaming here, I guess it all depends on how much value Bogosian has at half his salary. Finally, GO BOLTS. I love Yzerman as a player and even more as a GM. I hope BriseBois can do as well. I am really happy with Betterall but he inherited a mess. If they give decent contracts to their RFA's they will only have$8 to $11KK to sign UFA's, which is rather ironic that if Callahan is traded to Buffalo, it delays any possible playoff run by another year or more.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 15, 2019 at 1:34 a.m.
Thread: Realistic Worst-Case Scenario pt 2
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KUUUCH</b></div><div>Yea winning or losing the cup is gonna be a huge factor for future team plans. I'm sure Risto isn't completely useless, he's just developed his pro game on one of the worse NHL teams to start his career. Better/new players &amp; coaches can def change a player for the better or the worse. I just don't think he deserves the trade value that Buffalo is presumed to ask for him.</div></div>

Speaking from a Tampa (or other good team) perspective...
my guess is that in Ristolainen they see a physical defenseman who can skate the puck up ice, is pretty good on the PP, and scores 40+ points every year on one of the worst scoring teams
And then the thought with his defensive flaws...
would probably be that if u could get Ristolainen on a good team, then he’s going to be exposed so much less than on Buffalo- and that would really limit a lot of the errors he makes in his own end
And boost his offensive stats even- since on a good team, he’d be playing in the offensive zone A LOT more than the defensive end

I think that’s how Buffalo sees it also
So we’d consider trading him,
but only if someone overpays
Bc we see how good he can be, &amp; just need to get rid of our dead weight so we can build up the team around him (and our other young talent)
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 14, 2019 at 7:34 p.m.
Thread: Trade suggested by GMTD
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KUUUCH</b></div><div>Yea I've had people tell me that the trade talks were legit &amp; confirmed (still haven't read that claim myself, but I'll believe it).

First off, I'm not accusing of you of saying this directly, but I do not agree that the widely known "fact" that Tampa "needs cap space" is anything that would make other teams "gang up on us", or set crazy high prices to take on Cally's last year @ 5.8m... Why? Because like I said, he's only got a single year left on his deal &amp; if Tampa wants to buy out Cally, his cap hit drops over 3m in 2019-2020 and only has a 1.56m cap hit in 2020-2021. That's it. It's not some crazy / threatening / "franchise cap altering" horror story that'd you'd see if you bought out guys like Milan Lucic, Bobby Ryan, Andrew Ladd, Kyle Okposo, etc.

I certainly think other teams will do the math themselves so they're on the same page, but there's no reason for any team to set their asking price higher than the natural buy out asking price that Tampa is already facing (save 3m in 2019-20 cap space + only shortens 2020-21 TBL cap ceiling by 1.56m). Yfm? And on the flip side, I think there's more than a handful of rebuilding teams that realize our cap issue and would like to snag a free pick/prospect out of our cap space clearing transaction(s). I understand why one would think that all the other teams would "gang up on us", but once they realize that not only is the buyout penalty we're facing a complete "slap on the wrist", but also realize that Tampa is gonna end up with cleared cap, one way or another... Just doesn't make sense why a rebuilding franchise wouldn't enter the bidding to see what free asset can be scored in a Cally dump trade.

I agree the goal (for Tampa) is first and foremost to open some cap space, but I don't think TBL is looking for a RHD unless it's easy to add in the trade. Not with Hedman, Mcdonagh, Sergachev, Cernak, Foote. Sergy is able to both right and left side, so we already have 3 capable RHD for next season. And it's very likely at least one of the following gets resigned: Stralman/Coburn/Girardi... I can also see Rutta and/or Gaunce resigning on a cheap depth deal.

It depends on who you're talking to if you're looking for opinion on value. Personally, I'd rather have 5.8m Cally + 900k Sergy than Risto (with or without the 2m retained). I'd probably reject Risto w/ 2m retained (3.4m) &amp; a 1st rd pick for Callahan &amp; Sergachev. I think extremely high of Sergy, I'll be really upset if we trade him tbh. He had a slow first-half of the year but since then he's been back to his elite status.</div></div>

Thank you for taking the time to express your point of view. I agree with your comments, If I can whisper in your ear, I hope Betterall can get a good deal from a GM who thinks more highly of Ristolainen than I do. This I know DATM destroyed the Buffalo defense, and Ristolainen on any other team would not play over 20 minutes of ice time in any game. He is not as good as Tory Krug and I think if we have this conversation next year, Buffalo fans will rank Montour ahead of him. I agreed with your first assessment and I agree with you now as well.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 14, 2019 at 2:49 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 13, 2019 at 12:34 p.m.