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KingExLeafs
Member Since
Jul. 1, 2021
Favourite Team
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forum Posts
4244
Posts per Day
4.1
POSTS
THREADS
LIKES
ARMCHAIR-GM TEAMS
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Wed. at 1:27 p.m.
Thread:
From The Core Four To Only One
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KingExLeafs</b></div><div>There isn't a number 1 on the market. And the only available goalies via trade are Markstrom and Saros, which will require a hefty price to get. So I doubt the Leafs will do much better than Stolarz and Woll. It's a capable tandem.</div></div>
Just to add to your comment, there are "lots" of Stolarz type goalies as UFAs this summer. Think the Leafs will snag one, and hope that tandem does well. Stolarz is a New Jersey native, so I think he has better chance of signing with the Devils who seem to same goalie situation as the Leafs.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Tue. at 11:24 p.m.
Thread:
with Tre trading history we dont want him to trade Marner
Ferlands career ended a season and a half after the trade and fox wasn't going to sign. Hanifan and Lindholm were a huge part of the team for 6 years. And the Tkachuk trade was a haul, unfortunately huberdeau fell off a cliff after arriving.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Tue. at 10:38 p.m.
Thread:
Seravalli Insights
Seravalli isn't a hockey insider, he might as well be a capfriendly acgm manager because he creates his own b.s.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mon. at 1:38 a.m.
Thread:
Marner and Kane
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ChiHawk</b></div><div>A) I'm literally going off by what the Leafs media says with some saying a late 1st and a prospect and others saying a vet solid RHD guy and a late 1st. This fullfills both that and than some
B) Marner not showing up in the playoffs makes him suspect for a team trying to acquire a player for a playoff push next year, thus driving down his value.
C) Marner's history of negotiating his last deal and thus anticipation of a very big cap hit on his next deal, coupled with the normal negative of being a UFA and thus a 1 year rental, doesn't bode well for any long term use for him by an acquiring team.
Please feel free to debate so I'll turn the question on you....what historical trade precedence leads you to believe this is unfair? And I love you combating the word subjective when your response is heavily influenced by clear biases that you seem to concocted with quite literally no level of objectivity.....see how easy that is to argue like a child?</div></div>
Okay I'll address everything in order of which they were presented.
A) Listening to Toronto media about anything speculative is wild especially when the only articles written about Marner thus far have been by bloggers and not actual beat writers or national personalities. Not to mention that negotiations obviously haven't begun so anything that is speculated on is likely for targeted clicks.
B) Marner has absolutely had some serious issues in the playoffs however, he does lead a notoriously bad Leafs playoff squad in points since being drafted. Not to mention he's had some great series in the past so it may or may not be simply a scenery change that is needed to unlock something. Although I will concede that it could have negative effects on his value but they would be pretty small.
C) Marner has a full NMC which again will lower his value but not because it is present but because it will essentially allow him to dictate where he will be traded to should he be willing to waive it. However, because of this NMC, the likely course of action will follow many previous scenarios in which the players agent, in this case Darren Ferris, will be allowed access to negotiate with other teams prior to a move to try and settle on an extension. I would guess that any deal involving Marner, likely comes with an extension. If not, the odds of him being retained on said team should be quite high given that he would have expressed interest in being traded there by waiving his NMC to go there.
D) If we look at the last 5 years, there have been several star level forwards to be moved. These include (in chronological order): Hertl, Guentzel, DeBrincat, Meier, Tkachuk, Eichel.
Now I think almost everyone can agree that Marner is better and more impactful than everyone on that list minus Tkatchuk and Eichel, so we will look at their deals first.
Tkachuk: The context behind this deal starts with Tkachuk informing Flames management that he would not sign long-term and would walk come his UFA eligibility. So we have now established context that this player created full control over his destination with this request similar to the effects of a NMC, slightly diminishing his value. Secondly, he was coming off of his first elite regular season and also had a solid playoffs. Thus establishing his overall value as an elite winger. I'd argue Tkachuk in this situation would be more valueable than Marner given his age, RFA eligibility, and recent performance. However, Marner is the more polished and consistent producer making the gap smaller.
- This deal was essentially just Tkachuk for Weegar + Huberdeau
- Weegar was a solidified top 4 defensemen who was arguably the teams number 2 after a great season
- Huberdeau came off of a career year in terms of production and was poised to be great again as one of the best playmakers in the league
- Both players were on 1-year deals
The basic value of this deal is significantly more than two late firsts. Based off of deadline rental prices (which are of course lower than offseason rentals given the shortened time with player) Weegar would have likely net a first + prospect + mid-level picks at the next deadline and Huberdeau at the same rate of production would have likely net a first + prospect
Eichel: The context behind this deal is very interesting. Eichel started his latest season with the Sabres scoring at his worst rate since his rookie season before getting injured. Within his recovery window it is discovered he needs surgery on his back but the Sabres management refuses to allow him to receive a new and somewhat untested type of disk replacement. Because of this he requests a trade. Eichel has term left on his $10M contract with his future hanging in the balance of this procedure. So, we've established that Eichel is at his near lowest point value wise and because of the nature of the trade request the Sabres have a minimal level of leverage. Not to mention, Eichel has never made the playoffs once in his career. Marner's playoff woes and NMC are clearly nothing in comparison to his situation making him undoubtably the more valuable asset especially if signing an extension with the supposed trade partner.
- the deal was Eichel for Tuch, Krebs, a first, a second and a third.
- Tuch was a solid top 6 forward for Vegas and again using the method from before based off of historical trade deadline deals, would be worth at minimum a second and a third
- Krebs was a first round pick from 2-years prior and showed great promise and production in the AHL and WHL prior to the deal
- The picks obviously speak for themselves
Meier: I wasn't going to include him because he is clearly a tier below as a player in comparison to Marner but I'm rolling. Context to this deal, it was a deadline acquisition with Meier ending up as an RFA with a hefty QO price tag in the coming offseason. He was having another great season with the Sharks before requesting a trade and was hungry to get to a winning team.
- the deal was essentially: Meier + Filler for Mukhamadullin (an A- D-prospect), Zetterlund (a very serviceable middle 6 forward), a first, a second + filler
- given that this deal is mostly prospects, you can't exactly pinpoint prices like with roster players
- Zetterlund was the only roster players and would've been worth likely a 3rd + filler and Mukhamadullin is obviously worth a late lottery first
So yea, here's my complete thoughts on the matter with full levels of objectivity and rationalization based off of the information available to me. I would love to hear how based off of this information Marner is going to be worth two late firsts.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mon. at 12:05 a.m.
Thread:
Marner and Kane
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ChiHawk</b></div><div>If the Leafs move Marner, Leaf fans are going to be disappointed with the return. A couple of late 1sts is about the best they will get and this delivers that.
BTW...keep Lillypad, he was a throw in</div></div>
Disappointed with the return and netting a worse return than top 6 deadline rentals is a big difference. This is embarrassing
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sun. at 2:23 p.m.
Thread:
3 Major Trades And 3 Major Firings
I have to say I sort of like all of this and I won't pick at any of it because I like the overall plan, well done! Maybe just add a few cheap depth pieces?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 1 at 8:42 p.m.
Thread:
Sens Retool
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>zeropucksgiven04</b></div><div>Leafs have no leverage on Marner and have made it clear they are making changes to the core 4 and leafs need puck movers on the back end</div></div>
Gee, you got more from the no leverage Chychrun from the Jets than what you gave up for Marner.
Seems like you just "made something up" as fact. Leafs certainly haven't made it clear they are making chances to their NMC core four in 24/25. Fans on websites might, but no way Leaf management has. Heck this season they extended Nylander.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 1 at 8:15 p.m.
Thread:
Sens Retool
Leafs fans are gonna eat u up on that lol.
That trade value barely gets you Laughton let alone Marner lol
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 29 at 4:40 p.m.
Thread:
A Buyout A Trade And A Firing
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KingExLeafs</b></div><div>No</div></div>
Don't get mad
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 28 at 7:52 p.m.
Thread:
Berube Takes Over
Outside prospective. But Marner is EXACTLY the type of player Ottawa should be swinging for.
For as good as Brady is, he's only a All-star level player. He's better served as the team's #2 then face of the franchise.
Stutzle is still young, and he absolutely has the potential to become that franchise 1C Ottawa drafted him to be, but he's going to need a much better winger next to him than Brady to elevate him into that next phase of his development. Marner, despite his playoff warts, is that level of player. He's already what you all hoped Debrincat would be in Ottawa.
With all due respect to Batherson and Giroux, they're not capable of doing this for Stutzle. Marner can. He'd be the best piece Ottawa could hope to get their hands on to further Stutzle's development into that 1C.
Ottawa should do this trade in a heartbeat. That said, maybe swap out Chychrun for Norris, if it's that big an issue though.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 28 at 4:04 p.m.
Thread:
Berube Takes Over
Love the general scenario. I would probably try to get Brossoit in goal for that money, and worry that Lindholm's best years may be behind him (but maybe it's just a bad fit in Vancouver)>
Overall, a solid new direction if they could get those types of deals on the corpse four trades.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 27 at 10:40 p.m.
Thread:
Treliving Ruined This Team
Leafs went woke, and now they've gone broke. Sad to watch. Berube might be able to fix this
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 27 at 10:14 p.m.
Thread:
A Team Full of Goons
If you can’t beat them on the ice beat them in the alley…I like it
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 21 at 8:43 p.m.
Thread:
next year
:laugh Marner doesn't waive his NMC for Chicago, And once again Seth Jones isn't waiving his NMC to play in Canada. :shakehead
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 21 at 8:43 p.m.
Thread:
next year
that seth jones contract is a boat anchor and blackwood is a bad backup goalie, why do the leafs do any of this?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 12 at 8:34 p.m.
Thread:
Free JT
Tavares isn’t a negative asset. Obviously he’s not worth a ton of value due to his contract but there are a ton of teams that would still pay for him
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 10 at 10:21 p.m.
Thread:
Build through FA
Hronek is great but we have no cap room to sign him !
And not really the best style partner for Rielly either.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 7 at 12:24 p.m.
Thread:
go team
A guy with a full no move clause is definitely waving to go to Buffalo where he can enjoy being booed by the home fans, I mean leaf fans when they take over the Sabres building every time the two teams play.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 30 at 4:42 a.m.
Thread:
Should of kept OReilly instead of kampf
ROR chose to leave lol
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 28 at 6:01 p.m.
Thread:
Hronek for Reilly blockbuster
NTU
Rielly has had b2b strong playoff performances and is on a steal of a deal
Hronek is reportedly asking for Sergechev money so NTU
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 19 at 2:28 p.m.
Thread:
next year
Leafs decline. We dont want ur bad defense
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 16 at 2:24 p.m.
Thread:
A Packaged Deal And An End of An Era With Matthews And Marner To Arizona
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KingExLeafs</b></div><div>If the Leafs get bounced again in the first round, which I think is very likely, big changes need to be made. Leafs management should be able to convince Matthews and Marner to play elsewhere. Both for the team's long-term success and for their own personal success, they have to be traded.</div></div>
No matter what happens in the playoffs both Matthews and Marner will be Leafs next season.
MLSE is a money making machine.
They're not dumping the 2 biggest poster boys.
Winning in the playoffs is a bonus but not a must.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 13 at 10:23 p.m.
Thread:
Pulling The Cord On The Core
An exercise in pointlessness but 👏
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 13 at 6:13 p.m.
Thread:
With Bobby On Board
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BackstromIsTheGoat</b></div><div>After reading all your comments it sounds like you're actually serious about this which is hilarious.
Strome has been a 60+ pts guy in WSH
Dowd is a top10 defensive center in the NHL, he plays 15mins a night and had the most o-zone draws in the league before his injury.
Jarnkrok and Liljegren and "not playoff performers." Liljegren is still young so he has positive value, but Jarnkrok is old. What exactly does he add to the Caps team?
Kampf is a cap dump, hes "worthless" and a "replacement level AHL player"
And a 1st is nice
So in sum the trade in terms of positive and negative values looks something like
To TOR
+++++ ++++
To WSH
- - + - - - - - +++
Why would the Caps do that?</div></div>
Woah woah woah….. Dowd? Top 10 defensive centre?! I think you may be a bit bias here.
In no particular order:
Barkov
Crosby
Pettersson
Matthews
Aho
Danault
Eriksson Ek
Larkin
Couturier
Cirelli
Point
Lindholm
Kopitar
O’Reilly
Staal
… that’s just off the top of my head. & that’s only 15 guys in like 20 seconds. Dowd is not a top 10 defensive centre. Probably not even a top 30 defensive centre.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 12 at 11:42 p.m.
Thread:
What A Treliving Blueline Will Look Like
Did u not look at CGY Dcore?
Gudbranson would be no where near the top 4
CGY top 4 Dcore under Brad was either
Gio-Brodie
Hanifin-Andersson
Gio-Tanev
Hanifin-Andersson
Hanifin-Andersson
Kylington-Tanev
Weegar-Andersson
Hanifin-Tanev
So where did Gudbranson get into the top 4 here lul?
When he was in CGY he played third pair
Brad rn has the foundation around Rielly and McCabe on the left. If we use the CGY basis Demelo and either Roy and Pesce are the targets
And the TDL guys arent a good basis for what Brad really wanted. It was way before
We know Brad wanted Zadorov + Tanev from CGY back in NOV could not get the deal done so went for cheaper options. Edmundson has playoff experience and since MTL was already retaining he knew he could get him and add. Boosh became a target due to his history with TOR and past pairing with MO.
I dont think either is back
Rn this is the Dcore for next season with ? for holes
Rielly-?
McCabe-?
Benoit-Liligren (rfa probs extended)
Timmins
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