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Lepakage

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Jun. 29, 2018
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Pittsburgh Penguins
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Forum: Armchair-GMMay 27, 2019 at 7:42 p.m.
Thread: Penguin Sharks
I actually don't hate this trade from SJ but they would probably want to send Braun back to Pitt. They don't have the cap space to absorb JS and 72 plus re-sign both Joe's ,Meier, Lebanc, etc and fill in the gaps. Does Horny waive? Does GMJR want him gone? Both are likely no. Rumor is Leddy and Nisky are both available so SJ now has options beyond Subban and JS

I'll disagree with Pharrow. I think Subban has more trade value than Kessel even after a down year. I don't think NSH would do it.

I actually really like the Oesterle swap. He's got lots of upside so AZ wouldn't want to let him go but I think they would for Rust in a heartbeat

I don't see MTL giving up that much for Olli. If they got him I imagine they'd look to buy low

The JJ trade isn't close. Pitt would need to add more
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 27, 2019 at 2:33 p.m.
Thread: Dealing with the Ducks
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>buffbry</b></div><div>Every single team except maybe Dallas says no</div></div>

I couldn't agree more. AZ upgrading their left side? They already have OEL and Chych sitting there lol

I don't think the Subban trade is all that far off from what they would be looking for EXCEPT Hornqvist likely doesn't waive and he isn't the one GMJR wants to move

Murray would be fired if he proposed such a trade to Ducks ownership - which he would never propose. Mortgaging their future for a few years of Phil makes no sense. The Ducks are flush with young offensive forwards and they just need to let them come in play, not take up another roster spot. Not to mention the Ducks already have Perry, Silfy, Kase, and Rakell all capable of playing the right side in their top 6

After Nelson just signed 6x6 all of the free agent cap hits seem low
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 19, 2019 at 6:29 p.m.
Thread: The Kesseless Pens
I really like the name of this post lol although you didn't put any notes with your thoughts...

I guess I'll just start with what I see first: it's already been announced that the league cap won't be $83MM so this roster already doesn't make sense.
I think Blueger might command a bit more given his production this past offseason.
Pettersson likely gets a much bigger raise than this.
GMJR said he thinks this is the best defense they've had (with Maatta scratched) so sending him out I get &amp; moving Phil for a D I get.
Why does Vancouver want another LD when they have Hutton, Edler, and Hughes? Juolevi is also waiting in the wings. So VanCity passes.
Keith elects not to waive his NMC for Pitt. Subban would make more sense.
I think Ottawa would want more to take on JJ if they even took him at all. Rumor has it they want to re-sign Ceci. Look for them to take on Hossa's contract from AZ should they decide to buy.
I think your cap hits for Gus and Zucc are in the right ballpark (maybe they get a bit more?) . Zucc will be 32 at the start of next season
What happens the next season when Murray wants 6.5 and Schultz wants 6+? What if McCann puts up 25-30 goals? Y'all just walk away from 2 of the 3?
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 1, 2019 at 1:09 p.m.
Thread: Dallas20
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BurgerBoss</b></div><div>Indeed. The problem with Tampa is currently that many of their depth players have NTCs in their contracts, making them hard to trade, because who would want to leave the best team in the league?
Only depth player currently without NTC or NMC is Miller, hence I suggested acquiring him.

And for Point, I think Tampa will re-sign him immediately after the draft, with a big contract like 8x8 or something like that.</div></div>

I think 8x8 is in the ballpark for Point and actually, after this offseason there are only 3 NTC's. The NMCs are 16 team lists, those aren't the worst to work with. Callahan may actually have value in the offseason, not a ton but it could be a 4th rounder which is fine for a 3rd liner cap dump. I don't think TB will actually have to Bryan Bickell him away. Bickell was awful at that time, Callahan is still really useful just overpriced.

Side note: I'm happy with this Pitt/FL trade for both sides.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 1, 2019 at 12:40 p.m.
Thread: Dallas20
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BurgerBoss</b></div><div>I know Pirri has played 242 career games, but last two season combined, he has only played 16 games, as I stated.



Tampa is not in cap hell, but they can't afford to re-sign Point, who'll most likely be at $8,5-9M, if they keep all of their depth players.</div></div>

My bad on the Pirri deal. I read at a 3rd grade level.

It's not going to be challenging at all to move out salary in order to retain Point. I think they're more at risk of an offer sheet than TO is with Marner, because TO will absolutely match. Would Tampa? I'm not so sure, depends on what the offer presented is. Tampa is also known for getting players below their MV. I don't think Kucherov sets the bar for Point, I think Stamkos does and I think he comes in under Stammer at around $8MM
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 31, 2019 at 11:57 a.m.
Thread: Dallas20
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BurgerBoss</b></div><div>You probably have a point in that Miller statement, although 2 1sts seems a bit of a stretch. Maybe if DAL agrees to take Callahan's contract in the Miller trade as well a 1st+cheap roster player(s) like Carrick or Ritchie or something to that kind should do the trick. The thing is however that Tampa is almost forced to move one of their depth forwards, and Miller's probably the easiest one to move before/during the draft, because his NTC is not yet active then.

And I said Pirri is an AHL player because VGK uses him like one. At least for most of the previous seasons he's been there. Since 2017-18 season, Pirri has only played 16 NHL games.
I get that he's good, and as a DAL fan I'd love to have him in there, but it needs to be at reasonable cost.

Hayes will probably be overpaid, I don't think he'll end up in Dallas. We don't really need that much centers, what we need is a scoring winger, and I'd hope Dallas goes after one at the free agency.</div></div>

Pirri has played 242 games, not 16. He has 68 goals and 114 points over that time frame. He's 27 so he still has years of tread on those tires. His career pace is that of a $3MM depth scoring forward but for whatever reason he keeps getting passed up just like Boyes and Stempniak. His pace this year in Vegas is that of an $8MM player but 1) he won't keep it up and 2) nobody would give him that based off of one year. His career scoring rate is solid. Analysts were reporting lots of interest in Pirri and they wouldn't budge. Rumor is they were looking to move out one of their experienced 4th liners in Reaves or Bellemar but then injury struck and suddenly there was no need to send him back to the AHL. And again like I said, he outscores everyone on Dallas not on their top line

Ryan Callahan is an experienced 30-40 points 3rd/4th liner on another team, although he's on pace for those numbers this season. There's no doubt in my mind that Tampa could ship him off with a 2nd rounder for at the very least a 7th rounder to a team like AZ that honestly needs that kind of player. Callahan still has plenty of usefulness, he just has a NMC and his cap hit is pretty bad - but not immovable (this summer)

I don't think any team in the NHL is in 'cap hell' like the hawks were back in 2010. The Hawks also put themselves in that situation by signing Hossa, putting him on LTIR, and then spending to the cap at the TDL. They had the playoff MVP so Toews bonus rolled over to the following seasons cap hit for $1.3MM. There's also a time gap: the cap has gone up about 40% since then but salaries have only increased about 25%. The number of teams willing to take cap dumps is also much higher. Even MTL has said they're willing to do so again
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 30, 2019 at 11:20 p.m.
Thread: Dallas20
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BurgerBoss</b></div><div>Yes, I know Pirri's performed well for an AHL player. At least in VGK he is just that, and I don't see any teams paying +2M for an AHL player, unless it turns out to be a f**king Marchessault 2.0. I like him, but I wouldn't pay him that much.

Honka's should get a half of that offer, tops. He's been no good whatsoever, a 7th d-man.

And for Gardiner, I think he's just wasted money. Stars are one of the top teams in goals against, and since Gardiner's virtually no help at the defensive end, he'd might cause some issues to Montgomery's system. If we can't score, we certainly must have the defense, and Gardiner doesn't fit to that system.

Also it's not offensive D-men that we need. Klingberg, Heiskanen and Lindell can perform in both ends pretty well, and they are the biggest reason why Dallas still is in the playoff race.

I'd personally use that money for getting a scoring forward. We just simply need no more D-men. Our defense is pretty good.

And knowing Tampa's situation, I think DAL could just trade that 2019 1st round pick straight for Miller at the draft. We get a good forward, and Tampa saves money. Win-win solution.</div></div>

I'm sure you know about the Dallas D-men than I do but there is no way a young, physical 2-way center with term who keeps putting up 50+ points a year is worth a mid to low first round pack. Antoine Vermette a few years ago went for a 1st rounder and he was a rental, Hanzal went for a 1st and you've seen just how awesome he is. JT Miller is worth closer to two 1sts than he is one and that's not debatable. He's still young, his ceiling if he gets back to 2C and plays 17-19 minutes might even be 60-65 points - we just don't know yet because the depth in Tampa is insane.

Pirri doesn't score like Miller, but his production cannot be denied. He is absolutely not an AHL player. His career PPG is much lower than what he's been doing right now in a 2nd line role for Vegas. Most of the Dallas forwards have played 49 games. If you use his career average that's 23 points. Exactly 3.. THREE Stars forwards are producing at that rate. You're a defensive team, cool. That's great. Pirri is a pretty decent 2-way player, Miller is a solid 2-way player. There are 20 NHL regular UFAs scoring at a higher rate than Pirri's .47PPG over his career (Pirri is one of them but I excluded him). 6 of those players are NHL stars and will likely get in the $7MM-$10MM range and everyone will be going for their services. Then there's Thornton who likely only re-signs in SJ and Williams who probably stays in CAR. So there's 12 players left. All of those players are proven point producers or are breakout players. Pirri will likely sign cheaper than allll of these guys such as Eberle, Donskoi, and even guys below him like Simmonds, Silfverberg, and Panik.

I do agree that Dallas can simply improve via free agency. I think Kevin Hayes would be a great get, but he's going to get paid. You could try Eric Staal on maybe a 2-year deal, but I think Hayes is a better overall fit.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 28, 2019 at 1:41 p.m.
Thread: Dallas20
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BurgerBoss</b></div><div>It's an ok offer, but why should Dallas pay so much for Pirri and Honka?

Also Gardiner's unnecessary. Lindell's underpaid.</div></div>

Thanks for the context. Gardiner I was throwing in because right now you've got the cap space, he costs you no assets to obtain, and in a year or two if you're running into cap issues then he or another D becomes a tradeable asset. I also admitted that some of the salaries may be out of whack but the space is there. I was moreso going for a certain makeup then exact figures.

Most people I've talked to say that the RFA forwards wouldn't work going back to Tampa and that it would need to be one of the defenders going back, that also makes room for Gardiner.

Pirri has a career avg PPG of 0.47. Dallas has all of 3 players above that pace and they all play on the top line. Someone is going to give Pirri a decent contract and the stars need depth scoring. So, why not Pirri to Dallas? Hell, Pirri would be 8th for forward scoring in Dallas right now and he's only played 14 games.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 25, 2019 at 3:22 p.m.
Thread: Getting Competitive Right Meow
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>fogger794</b></div><div>I'm just going to jump in here, because I see some ridiculous things being thrown about. First and foremost, facts depend on perspective, and Carolina fan here, Mac is going nowhere. Our team plays best in front of him, we're not paying him jack, and there is zero incentive to move him. If you want Mrazek for Talbot, we can talk, but extension or no extension, Mac is going nowhere.

Mr. Lepakage:
"I'm not saying Nino is going to be a bust, but everyone thought Carolina won the trade with Calgary (including myself) and thus far it just hasn't worked out that way."
I am proud to offer proof that I did not think Carolina won the trade with Calgary: <a href="https://twitter.com/coryfogg/status/1010581802824683520" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://twitter.com/coryfogg/status/1010581802824683520</a>
I knew Lindholm had that next gear in him, and it frustrates me on a daily basis.

As for the Rask Nino trade....well Nino has scored 3 more goals in 2 games than Rask did in 26, so I'm willing to take that gamble.

Of course we're shopping a defender, but it's not Brett Pesce, everyone just wants him because he's a great defensive d-man. That's exactly why we're keeping him. Anybody want to make a decent offer for Faulk? He's yours.

In any case friend, you'll want to trust my Darling hating fellow Canes fan up there, because outside of his full-on hatred of Cam Talbot, he does have an accurate measure of the situation in Raleigh.</div></div>

Time will tell. I like McElhinney, have for years. If he’s such an important piece why don’t you just re-sign him and plan the parade? I’m also not an Oilers fan, I clearly said in the description that it’s annoying seeing everyone say they’ll suck forever and that McDavid will never win a cup when he hasn’t even hit his mid 20’s yet
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 25, 2019 at 1:00 p.m.
Thread: Getting Competitive Right Meow
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Rcsherwo</b></div><div>While I respect you trying to dissect the Canes intentions, you are mistaken on a few things here. Rask DOES NOT have a higher offensive ceiling than Nino, let's just get that straight here. Rask is a good player and will be a solid two way 3C but we have a ton of those. He has been derailed by injuries sure but he is slow and his skating is less than average at best. We are a fast team and he just didn't fit anymore, the NHL has outpaced him. Might he figure out how to keep up, maybe?

We let Skinner go not because we weren't willing to pay him but HE WAS NOT WILLING TO PLAY HERE. He had no intentions of resigning with us and conflicted with our coaching staff, mainly Rod (asst coach last 4 years) who preaches being the hardest working team out there. Skinner is not that. He is EXTREMELY talented but he wanted nothing to staying with our team. That coupled with the NTC and his poor performance really killed his trade value last year, but at least we got something out of it, example Islanders.

Ferland is a bit of a different animal, he is a UFA and a gritty power forward. If he wanted a 5x5 we would have signed him. Reports are he wants north of 6 mil and thats just not happening with our franchise. we are a small market team with a budget. Plus we have ton of young wings and now Nino who can replace him on the top line. If we are in the last WC spot at the deadline, I dont know if we trade him but if we limp in to the playoffs only to get blown out in the first round, why would we not sell him for a 1st and a prospect. We are playing the long game here.

As far as selling a defensmen, that is just not correct. We have 7 NHL quality d men and we want to sign Adam Fox. In order to sign Adam Fox we need to trade a RD so he can have a spot to play once the NCAA season is over. IMO we would never trade Pesce, that is all Canadian media generated but Hamilton and Faulk are duplicitous and one of them will be traded. Not because we are selling but because we have the ability to move on and not hurt the team.

Mac is quite literally the best goalie we have had in the last 10 years statistically. As a fanbase, we love the guy and you can tell the team does too. There is no way we trade him, the fate of our season will be up to him and Mrzaek and we are all okay with that. This is the first season in a long time where goaltending wasn't our main problem. There is no way we take on Talbots salary while also STILL have to ****ing pay Darling to suck in the AHL for a similar price.

Again, I appreciate you trying to understand the Canes but this is truly where the team lies, coming from a Raleigh native and season ticket holder for 10+ years. Don't believe everything you see on twitter.</div></div>

Well you'll have to forgive me as I have many clients who are NHL/Junior players, scouts, and we have a GM and some executives. You seem to have some knowledge about the team, but for me to take your word that you have inside information on the team would be a pretty foolish thing to do. I also don't expect you to take anything that I say as insider information.

I actually played with Ferland in his hometown of Swan River - I hope he holds out and gets paid.

The facts are what they are. Sometimes things just don't work out as you plan (the Darling trade and sign you referred to). I'm not saying Nino is going to be a bust, but everyone thought Carolina won the trade with Calgary (including myself) and thus far it just hasn't worked out that way. The playoff races are ridiculous. It would likely be poor asset management to keep Ferland for a playoff run if you know you're not going to sign him (which looks very unlikely right now) unless you're collecting 80% of the points you're playing for and even then it's like you said, your team can't really afford to let players walk.

As far as the Canes selling a defender, they absolutely are. Who's going to pay the most for one of your right handed defenders? They're the playoff teams. If you trade him in season you're likely to get mostly futures and a much lesser player as these teams look to win now. I'd be more than happy to eat my words if you hauled in a Nylander or a Kapanen (which maybe happens if you send Ferland as well) but it doesn't appear to look that way.

I'll be happy to eat my words on Mc but unless he's extended, my guess is he gets moved.

I admire your passion, I really do. But if there are a few large takeaways I've learned from my time coaching it would definitely be: 1) most kids will never love the game as much as I do, and that's fine 2) issues with parents? never heard of them, parents are fine 3) just because you've done something for a very long time (worked, coached, watched the game) doesn't mean you're any darn good at it :]

Having said that, I would be interested in hearing what you think the Canes actually do leading up to the TDL.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 25, 2019 at 8:52 a.m.
Thread: Getting Competitive Right Meow
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>hotNreadyWings</b></div><div>Why would Carolina trade an overpoweforming and much cheaper Mac for an underperforming and much more expensive Talbot?</div></div>

Why would they trade Victor Rask, who has a higher offensive ceiling (something this team troubles with: depth scoring) for El Nino? Why are they rumored to have Ferland on the trade block? Do you think contenders are going to give up a valuable roster player in return for Ferland, who at this point is a rental? Same reason why they let Skinner go for a less than a desirable return: they want something for nothing. All of those deals made sense at the time. They weren't willing to pay Skinner what he was asking for, they aren't willing to pay Ferland, and they're also rumored to be shopping a defender. So this is a team that's selling, or at least dealing while every other team ahead of the are obvious buyers (with the exception of Columbus who could turn seller at any moment). Good luck with your playoff run. McElhinney will turn 36 after this season. He was a waiver wire acquisition. Unless they can re-sign him, I bet he's gone by the deadline to a team who's looking for an experienced backup - with the number of available goalies this offseason, the return won't be great.

Throw in a pick if it'll help you sleep at night but nobody is going to give up too much for a 35 year old, rental, backup goalie that has basically league average stats this season.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 24, 2019 at 2:33 p.m.
Thread: Calm Down Oiler Fans
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OilersFan77</b></div><div>I mostly agree with you. It doesn't have to be Silfverberg, I was looking for a true top 6 winger and Silfverberg seemed a decent bet to make it to free agency and be available at a decent price given the down year he's having. You're probably right about Hagelin and McElhinney with respect to their likely prices. I wouldn't bring back Chiasson simply because although he's scored this year I don't think it's sustainable based on the underlying numbers. Last thing we need right now is to live on the prayer that he can shoot at 20%+ again next year, especially when his possession numbers aren't very good. It's also worth mentioning that McD and Draisaitl have slightly depressed possession numbers playing with him this year. We need the top line to score but it means nothing if they're also getting lit in their own end. I wouldn't be opposed to Maroon at the right price. I thought about Panik, he certainly provides secondary scoring and has proven he can step up and play with top talent (Kane), but I also think he might resign in Arizona which is why I didn't add him. Definitely a solid option if he becomes available. Hagelin definitely doesn't provide scoring, but my priority was to find players for the bottom six who have good possession track records so we aren't so bad in that respect when the top line isn't out there. A solid third line, in my mind, is one that drives possession because that usually results in more secondary scoring for than against. Solid possession lines help to keep the momentum in our favour meaning that when the top line gets out there they can pick up after a solid shift rather than having to spend time and energy getting the puck back after a poor shift of the team being on its heels. Increasing the efficiency of our transition game should be a priority I think.</div></div>

That's fair regarding Chiasson but I also think the Oilers would be more productive if they split up their centers but loaded up lines prior to commercial breaks and after penalty kills. I think having McDavid, Drais, RNH, and Brodziak as your 4 centers is a great start and my thought is to infuse them with familiar wingers. Chiasson is a low-cost familiar winger that can probably be had for $2MM or less. Maroon probably comes in for a year or 2 at a similar price tag of $2.25MM or less and I think Panik is going to be looking for term and I don't know that he finds it in the desert. AZ honestly doesn't NEED to sign any forwards this offseason (as long as Garland sticks as an NHL forward) they really just need to get healthy. I also think that Panik will be intrigued by playing with a premier center again while signing for more years. He hasn't bought a home in AZ, he's just been renting. That can change but who knows