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LikeABoss
Kens replacement
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Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 7, 2023 at 5:04 p.m.
Thread:
Walkrot Ferrattinder
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jfstompers</b></div><div>Who do you think Mario Ferraro is?</div></div>
He'd be a massive upgrade on the role Yzerman was trying to fill with Chiarot. It's a team game after all and I think only going after the "best" player gets you the Dubas Maple Leafs.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>yikes</b></div><div>Ferraros awesome but Yzerman would have to be kidnapped for this to happen and Grier would be cheering like child on Christmas.</div></div>
Okay Okay I get it, honestly I haven't looked at other posts to gauge a fair value, I just know he's a gamer if he's close to leading the league in hits and blocked shots at his age, I don't see an issue with this price but obviously everyone agrees I'm overpaying. I still think it would be a great pickup
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aedoran</b></div><div>Are you sure Detroit is your favorite team???????????</div></div>
2nd favorite, my first favorite has to be the Harlem Globetrotters! They have a pretty decent record as of late ;)
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 7, 2023 at 4:16 p.m.
Thread:
Walkrot Ferrattinder
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SharkTank</b></div><div>As if Yzerman would trade Wallinder.</div></div>
I saw him play the other night, he is such a good skater. I'd hate to see them trade him but this offer should easily improve the team right now vs waiting a couple more years for Wallinder. The only criticisms I have is he seems a bit lanky like it would help if he gained some mass. He also seems to pinch super deep, but his skating seems to bail him out, but I don't see that translating to the NHL.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Nov. 18, 2023 at 8:20 a.m.
Thread:
We might be broke soon
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PuzzledActuary</b></div><div>Legitimately one of the dumbest rebuttals I've ever heard.</div></div>
This must be another etymological issue, where I'm assuming you mean "devastating" when you say "dumbest". Kind of like your definition of "fringe player" means "4th line player" right?
You make an excellent point, it's pretty devastating when a hypothetical 8 year deal for Abs would have been cheaper than the 14 years of $30M contracts and buyout he did get. Thanks for your kind feedback! :squinty
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PuzzledActuary</b></div><div>You're not watching if you think he's playing like a $6M player...</div></div>
We agree here too, he's playing more like a $6.9M x 6yr player, aka 3rd year Willy Nylander, and will likely be paid as such. :cool
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Nov. 17, 2023 at 12:26 p.m.
Thread:
We might be broke soon
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PuzzledActuary</b></div><div>Thank you for proving my point by bringing up one of the worst contracts in this org's history - Justin Abdelkader.
You're arguing that we should sign bad players to long deals to mitigate risk.....LOLOLOLOL</div></div>
So your logic here is Holland made a better move with a 4yr deal and a 7yr extension that gets bought out with 3 years left rather than an 8yr deal that gets bought out the last year? That's just objectively wrong so you're welcome I guess...
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Nov. 17, 2023 at 12:15 p.m.
Thread:
We might be broke soon
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PuzzledActuary</b></div><div>lol where do you see an 8 year deal....</div></div>
:|
6yr + 5yr = 11 yr, 5yr +3yr = 8yr, 6yr + 1yr = 7yr... What I'm showing is some of his comparables have been paid for over multiple contracts in the 3.4% ($3M) range amounting to a period of ~8 years. I also think Jeannot and Sharangovich are good comparable case studies for your approach with short term deals.
The player contracts I'm pointing to have similar playing styles with similar production. The only comparables you've provided are Jonathan Ericsson, Dan Cleary and Drew Miller... Do you know one of those is a defenseman, and none of them were given a long term deal early in their career...? In fact they were all given overpriced contracts when they were UFA, which supports the case for a long term deal... :grimace
The difference between 2 contracts x 4yr versus 1 contract x 8yr is due to the high probability of the salary cap increasing in the future. Thus 3.7% of the future cap will be more than $3.25M which results in 2 contracts x 4yr consuming a higher percentage of the cap over that same period than 1 contract x 8yr.
Extrapolating a little further, if you assume the player doesn't regress, short term deals favor the player (which might be what your routing for if you want him to get paid :cool ) while long term deals favor the team. However if the player regresses (which seems to be what you're actually routing for :s ) then it flips and a short term deals favor the team and long term deals favor the player.
Make sense?
I'd like to take your awful comparables and raise you one Justin Abdelkader. He signed a 3.0% x 4yr contract when he was 25, sound familiar? Later (with the cap having gone up from $60M to $73M) he signed a 5.95% x 7yr extension... Can you at the very least concede the fact that signing Abs @ 6.0% ($3.6M) x 8yr would have been objectively better than 3.0% ($1.8M) x 4yr + 5.95% ($4.25M) x 4yr + buyout @ 6.3M x 6yr...? I'm not saying he was ever worth 6%, but still don't think there's an argument against that hypothetical long term contract with hindsight... Damn... Just think of their trajectory if they had signed Abs to an 8yr deal, and Stevie could have bought him out day 1 of becoming GM @ <$2.8M x 2yr...:tearsofjoy
You still haven't suggested a replacement for Ras when you lose him on waivers... Basically your only argument is your opinion of his play from this season, so everything considered, your short sighted opinion hasn't changed anyone's assessment on the value of Ras. I haven't even brought up Razor, but I think it's safe to assume your opinion of him is more of the same verbal diarrhea...
Just pack it in buddy.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Nov. 16, 2023 at 4:44 p.m.
Thread:
We might be broke soon
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PuzzledActuary</b></div><div>Yes, and fringe players are not guys you pay over $3M to for 8 years....</div></div>
Sure you can:
Casey Cizikas: 3.07% x 6yr + 4.59% x 5yr
Adam Lowry: 3.99% x 5yr + 3.67% x 3yr
Brandon Tanev: 4.29% x 6yr + 1.45% x 1yr
I think Tanev is a good comparable for your approach, cuz the Jets walked him to free agency and he got $3.5M x 6 as UFA.
Here's a couple that are closer to his age:
Tanner Jeannot: $2.67M x 2yr
Yegor Sharangovich: $3.1M x 2yr
Since that's all cleared up, what fringe liner do you promote when you lose Ras on waivers?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Nov. 15, 2023 at 7:49 p.m.
Thread:
We might be broke soon
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PuzzledActuary</b></div><div>Pretty simple for me really. I see a really mediocre player that doesn't have a positive impact on the teams success on a nightly basis.
A fringe NHL player means someone who is a 4th liner / not quite regular NHL level talent. You could put Ras in a GR game tomorrow and you wouldn't know who the clear NHLer is. He's incredibly average. He probably would clear waivers at this point, but I'm not advocating for sending him down. It's not like he needs to develop his game, this is who he is.
I think he should be paid based on his entire career thus far in the NHL, which shows that he is nothing but a 4th line player. As such, signing him to anything more than that type of contract is nonsense, unless you want the Wings to be in the bottom of the standings every year. Watching Ras for another 8 years would be like having to watch Jonathan Ericsson or Daniel Cleary or Drew Miller for another 8 years. At this point I couldn't care less if they re-sign this coming offseason. He adds next to nothing on the roster.
We've suffered far too long through Holland's BS to deal with that again.</div></div>
I doubt he would make it passed San Jose on waivers. Who's busting down the door to take his spot btw? Whoever that player is, by your description they would automatically also be fringe right? What are the guys that get scratched? I suppose that just means every team ices a "fringe" line, aka the 4th line, so what's the harm in locking up a fringe liner for 8 years?
He's only 24 and even if he amounts to a 4th liner for the rest of his career, $3.25M is not unmanageable. Don't get me wrong, I'm certainly all for him being a 4th liner because that would mean the team is in a pretty good spot with 9+ forwards who are playing better than Ras regularly. I just don't see who the 9 are with this roster, and into the future. There aren't a ton of replacement/upgrades in UFA market this offseason either. Who should they add/promote?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Nov. 15, 2023 at 6:07 p.m.
Thread:
We might be broke soon
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PuzzledActuary</b></div><div>We're watching different players. Ras looked like he took a big step last year and actually looked like he could be a contributor for years to come, but this year he has reverted back to being the same fringe NHL-caliber player. I hated the pick when Holland made it and I still hate it today.
He can't skate, he doesn't win FOs, he creates nothing 5v5 but icings, he barely uses his body unless he's on the PP and he doesn't play physical.
Signing him for 8 years is borderline insane.</div></div>
We might be watching different sports. When you say fringe NHLer I don't know what you mean by it. When I think of fringe NHLers it's the players that can get through waivers unclaimed. Do you think Ras should go on waivers? Or do you have a different description of a fringe NHLer?
Here's my counter points to your list: He took a puck to the knee blocking a shot last season, FOWs is a weak argument, he's again on pace for 25+ points this season, he certainly uses his size to block shots, and if by physical you mean he should hit more I'm not sure how much more u require because he's had multiple seasons with 100+ hit pace.
I think we're talking passed each other on the points production part, because if he produced more we would be talking about a larger contract, but instead this is market value because that's what his production is worth around the league... *See previously referenced comparable contracts
It seems like you think he should be paid based on his last 15 games, and based on those 15 games you'd be fine losing him on waivers... Whereas I think he should be paid based on his reliability shown at a professional level from the age of 18 to 24.
8 years @ 3.7% of the cap would make him 33 YO by the end of this extension, and probably @ ~3% of the cap. A bridge deal walks him to UFA, anything from bridge up to max would just buy down the risk of regression or injury.
I think the regression thing is a pretty safe bet, because I remember they liked his drive and passion when they drafted him, so I just don't see him regressing much through the rest of his 20s. The injury thing is a crapshoot, but taking a bet that a player will stays healthy is a pretty low threshold for insanity.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Nov. 15, 2023 at 4:08 p.m.
Thread:
We might be broke soon
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PuzzledActuary</b></div><div>You've severely overpaid Raymond and Ras.
What has Ras shown you that he deserves an 8 year deal? He's close to GR material at this point.</div></div>
He's 24 years old, he has 5 season in the NHL with a 25+ point pace, he's durable and rarely misses games, he can play any forward position... I think some comparables for this contract are Adam Lowry, Brandon Tanev, Jordan Staal. I think this contract is market value in the near term and it becomes a steal if he continues at this pace or improves (cuz he's still 24...) as the cap goes up.
I'll concede 8 years is a risk, but I don't agree with sending him to the AHL.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Nov. 11, 2023 at 2:28 p.m.
Thread:
Candy Kane
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lancebmx</b></div><div>Why do the Oilers do this?</div></div>
Cuz their GM likes to make good trades with the Wings ;)
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 9, 2023 at 10:59 a.m.
Thread:
opening night
Burger was sent to the AHL. I really like the idea of that 3rd line, but the 2nd line seems a little soft. I'd probably swap Perron and Sprong, or swap Ras and Razor. I think the D will be how you have it, or I could see Maatta as 3 LD and Ghost as 3 RD w/ Holl as a scratch.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 2, 2023 at 9:08 p.m.
Thread:
Would this get a Pinto deal done
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AnonymousSensFan</b></div><div>Not really. Forsberg has fit in and looked good with a larger sample size. He and Korpisalo would provide a good tandem, which Sens have lacked for years.
Sens need stable goaltending more than a 3C, which they can sign by moving other, less critical pieces. Lyon can maybe pick up where he left off, or he may not. Sens can't count on that. They know and like Forsberg, and his contract is reasonable.
I also don't think Yzerman is the type of person to trade a FA he just signed before the season even starts. Not a great move for a team to make.</div></div>
Understandable. I was just trying something off the beaten path with this trade.
I'm not saying Forsberg is bad, but I think it would be fair to put him in the same ballpark as Reimer and Lyon. From the Wings perspective this would maybe be a slight upgrade, for an extra 4th and a pretty substantial cap hit for 2 seasons...
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 2, 2023 at 8:44 p.m.
Thread:
Would this get a Pinto deal done
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GuyGuyGuy</b></div><div>I think you can remove the retention on Lyon and it’s still fair</div></div>
I agree, but it frees up enough for ~$2.4M for Pinto vs ~$1.95M. I also thought Sens fans would be intrigued by Lyon at $450k for 2 seasons
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 19, 2023 at 9:04 p.m.
Thread:
NOW IN 7D
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SharkTank</b></div><div>Seider is a horse. He'll likely want to play more. IIRC he averages around 23 minutes per game.
I can't see Yzerman signing Kessel. I don't know if Little Caesar's makes hot dogs?</div></div>
They could probably make a good chunk of his contract back with a Phil the Thrill hot dog pizza promotion :D
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 18, 2023 at 2:42 p.m.
Thread:
Season Predictions
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SharkTank</b></div><div>IIRC Larkin only got an opportunity to make the Red Wings that season because Datsyuk was Injured? Larkin took advantage of his opportunity. It certainly didn't hurt playing with Hank Zetterberg.
Red Wings seem to be employing a "death by 1000 paper cuts" mentality. They lack stars so they'll try to beat opponents with depth.
Copp and Compher are there so there's no need to force young Kasper into a role he's not ready for. I'm very high on both Kasper and Mazur and feel their compete levels may get them to the NHL sooner than later.
Most of these vet players are placeholders. Yzerman wants to compete now while slowly replacing these vets 1 by 1 with his young studs. I can clearly see Yzerman is thinking 3-4 years from now for everything to come together. Might happen in 2-3 years even.</div></div>
It worked for Seattle, which is why I could see a Detroit getting in. The caveat being that Seattle has a better blueline.
I see them being 1 top 4 d-man and 1 top 6 forward away from being a solid playoff contender. With Edvinsson, Mazur and Kasper at the doorstep, I expect the Wings to be in the playoff race next season, and to begin climbing to Stanley cup favorites in 2-5 years as their other prospects like Danielson, Cossa, Wallinder, Sandin Pellikka start to graduate.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 18, 2023 at 2:12 p.m.
Thread:
Season Predictions
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SharkTank</b></div><div>I don't see anything wrong with Kasper playing the season in Grand Rapids. Yzerman wants his players to earn their spots.
Difference between Yzerman and Holland is simple. Holland believes tie goes to the vet. Yzerman believes tie goes to the young guy.
It's not like these young guys are being blocked by All Star players. If they're as good as they believe they are then they should beat them out for roster spots.</div></div>
Larkin played on Zetterberg's wing when he started playing in the NHL, which I think is an easier transition than trying to slot him in 2C. I also think out of all the guys I have slotted in LW, it's very possible he could be the best of them all coming out of the preseason. I agree with what you're saying about Yzerman though, he's as patient as they come, and I think keeping Kasper in the AHL would allow them to slide his contract another year.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 18, 2023 at 1:50 p.m.
Thread:
Season Predictions
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SharkTank</b></div><div>Kasper on the top line? 🤔
Can't put Raymond and Berggren on the same line. They'll be manhandled.
Perron won't be on line 3. He'll likely ride shotgun to Larkin with Cat on line 1.
Sprong over Fischer. Petry over Holl. Rasmussen 2LW.</div></div>
If Kasper isn't in the top 6 he should be in the AHL.
You can move Kasper down and Raymond up, doesn't change either line's rank.
I can see Perron on the 2nd line, but not the 1st. This 3rd line is pretty interchangeable with the 2nd line but again wouldn't change my rankings.
Sprong and Fischer will be deployed based on who they're playing, I don't think either of them plays the full 82, but I could see Sprong AND Fabbri getting more games than Kostin and Fischer. If you swap them out it probably improves my 4th line ranking and lower scratched players ranking.
I wouldn't pair Ghost and Petry, but if they did, it would probably lower my rankings for 2nd and 3rd pair.
Again 3rd and 2nd line are pretty interchangeable, but I think Ras and Copp play well together so 2nd line of: Ras - Copp - Raymond and 3rd line of: Burger - Compher - Perron would again not change my rankings.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 10, 2023 at 12:16 p.m.
Thread:
Early look at 2425 season
I know the team name is supposed to be '24-'25, but I was really hoping for some good futuristic names for the year 2425, like "Blaze Laser", "Beef Blastbody", "Punch Rockgroin", "Big McLargehuge", "Flint Ironstag", etc.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 4, 2023 at 4:01 p.m.
Thread:
No Return Cat
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MoSeider53</b></div><div>From what Dreger, Friedman and LeBrun posted that Cat wants to play as close to home as possible, Last i knew Anaheim and Detroit are about 2,400 miles apart.</div></div>
Not sure about that, on the recent 32 Thoughts podcast Friedman said Red Wings, Islanders, Ducks and Golden Knights were in talks with Ottawa. I think "close to home" has a different meaning when you're going to make ~$8M per year.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 4, 2023 at 3:25 p.m.
Thread:
Detroit Lyons
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Koskinen_The_Great</b></div><div>The fact Sprong had little options after a career year says it all. Detroit seems to be a no go zone for UFAs unless overpaid.</div></div>
There's definitely a bad team tax UFAs are charging Detroit.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Koskinen_The_Great</b></div><div>‘I am going to fill their nets with pucks’
Teams can’t even fill a waiver claim on him!
Wingers have no value unless they can actually score and make little money</div></div>
There's still a pretty good chance he gets bought out, it's a good looking buyout too, he'd have a negative cap hit next season. I just edited this to show the buyout.
From his recent press conference, it seems like Yzerman would prefer to keep Zadina, but it also seemed like he wants to do everything he can to fulfill Zadina's request to be moved. Selfishly I want Detroit to keep him, but I'd still route for him to fill nets with pucks if he's bought out and another team signs him. He's a good player, he can transport the puck well, is responsible in both ends, can find open space, but it's ironic that he misses the net so often.
I don't want to blame Blashill and Lalonde, but Zadina rarely plays with good line mates. Granted there haven't been very many of those to go around in the past 5 years here. I just think about Cole Caufield, and the night and day production he had between Dominique Ducharme and Marty St. Louis. I can't help but wonder if Zadina would break out with a coach that tries to improve his strengths, rather than forcing him to be a well rounded player.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 3, 2023 at 9:41 p.m.
Thread:
Detroit Lyons
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Koskinen_The_Great</b></div><div>RIP Debrincat for Zadina and a 3rd ACGMs</div></div>
And Debrincat for Hirose + a 3rd is born!!! At this point I don't want them to go after Debrincat, from what I understand he's asking for the Timo Meier contract... :s
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 3, 2023 at 9:16 p.m.
Thread:
Detroit Lyons
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>andrewj72</b></div><div>I would love to grab Suter again for one year but pass on Ryan Merkley he’s worse than Lindstrom</div></div>
I've read he doesn't have a good attitude either, but he's still young and there's some potential offense. It seems pretty low risk, but he's probably not Yzerman's type.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Jul. 1, 2023 at 5:56 p.m.
Thread:
Detroit Red Wings signed J.T. Compher (5 Years / $5,100,000 AAV)
2 years from now this cap hit will be an afterthought, but Compher won't be available 2 years from now, so I think it's a win. Y'all just jelly that other GMs struggle with their cap space, while Yzerman just gets to do what he wants when he wants
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 30, 2023 at 7:42 p.m.
Thread:
Bargain Bin Shopping
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jfstompers</b></div><div>Geekie seems like a good idea</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lancebmx</b></div><div>I don't mind the idea of Geekie. McLeod should be top of our list to be honest.</div></div>
Yeah there's a lot of good young righties who aren't getting QO. I wonder what's up with Bokk, he seems to be putting up good numbers in Germany.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 27, 2023 at 8:01 p.m.
Thread:
D-Mac and Cheese
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jfstompers</b></div><div>If only we would weaponize the cap. This team seems pretty set on not spending money to be bad no matter how many picks it would bring in. We should have been doing it the last 3 seasons.</div></div>
I think they've done a pretty decent job staying liquid for the impending Ras, Burger, Raymond, Seider signings. I know what you're saying though, but I kind of wonder if certain teams avoid trying to help Detroit... Like the Minnesota deals... Why didn't we do that?
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