You've severely overpaid Raymond and Ras.

What has Ras shown you that he deserves an 8 year deal? He's close to GR material at this point.

They won't play young guys now I doubt they play 7 rookies next year

Overpaying Raymond for that added term would be phenomenal for the team. Unless another pandemic occurs, the cap is going to rise dramatically.

Here we go again....

Raymond hasn't shown he's worth even close to $7M a year....the term (and the cap) is completely irrelevant until he does. In fact, if we're stuck to a $7M player for 8 years playing like a $4M-5M player, that wouldn't be good.

Here we go again....

It's a bet. Realistically, past two years Faymond looks like a 4-5M guy, I agree. However, is the cap going to stay 83.5M forever?
Are 4-5M guys going to stay "4-5M guys"? No and no. It is a bet that Raymond gets better, with the plus side of a very good contract with the downside of we overpay him by 1-2M now, but will likely be right around the going rate of his caliber.

lol this is how you turn into a team with an average roster and no cap space.

So should we go ahead and pay Edvinsson and Wallliner $9M deals right now because they may turn into studs?

Oh yeah forgot, you're the dude who thinks Erne is better than Edvinsson.

There we go - a strawman to prove you have no real argument.

Anddd we're back.

Simply how I remember you -- a guy whose cynical towards all prospects. Sorry if that angers you, sweetie.

Toodles!

I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you.

Dude is quoting graphic tees that weirdos wear lmfao

He's 24 years old, he has 5 season in the NHL with a 25+ point pace, he's durable and rarely misses games, he can play any forward position... I think some comparables for this contract are Adam Lowry, Brandon Tanev, Jordan Staal. I think this contract is market value in the near term and it becomes a steal if he continues at this pace or improves (cuz he's still 24...) as the cap goes up.

I'll concede 8 years is a risk, but I don't agree with sending him to the AHL.

We're watching different players. Ras looked like he took a big step last year and actually looked like he could be a contributor for years to come, but this year he has reverted back to being the same fringe NHL-caliber player. I hated the pick when Holland made it and I still hate it today.

He can't skate, he doesn't win FOs, he creates nothing 5v5 but icings, he barely uses his body unless he's on the PP and he doesn't play physical.

Signing him for 8 years is borderline insane.

We might be watching different sports. When you say fringe NHLer I don't know what you mean by it. When I think of fringe NHLers it's the players that can get through waivers unclaimed. Do you think Ras should go on waivers? Or do you have a different description of a fringe NHLer?

Here's my counter points to your list: He took a puck to the knee blocking a shot last season, FOWs is a weak argument, he's again on pace for 25+ points this season, he certainly uses his size to block shots, and if by physical you mean he should hit more I'm not sure how much more u require because he's had multiple seasons with 100+ hit pace.

I think we're talking passed each other on the points production part, because if he produced more we would be talking about a larger contract, but instead this is market value because that's what his production is worth around the league... *See previously referenced comparable contracts

It seems like you think he should be paid based on his last 15 games, and based on those 15 games you'd be fine losing him on waivers... Whereas I think he should be paid based on his reliability shown at a professional level from the age of 18 to 24.

8 years @ 3.7% of the cap would make him 33 YO by the end of this extension, and probably @ ~3% of the cap. A bridge deal walks him to UFA, anything from bridge up to max would just buy down the risk of regression or injury.

I think the regression thing is a pretty safe bet, because I remember they liked his drive and passion when they drafted him, so I just don't see him regressing much through the rest of his 20s. The injury thing is a crapshoot, but taking a bet that a player will stays healthy is a pretty low threshold for insanity.

Pretty simple for me really. I see a really mediocre player that doesn't have a positive impact on the teams success on a nightly basis.

A fringe NHL player means someone who is a 4th liner / not quite regular NHL level talent. You could put Ras in a GR game tomorrow and you wouldn't know who the clear NHLer is. He's incredibly average. He probably would clear waivers at this point, but I'm not advocating for sending him down. It's not like he needs to develop his game, this is who he is.

I think he should be paid based on his entire career thus far in the NHL, which shows that he is nothing but a 4th line player. As such, signing him to anything more than that type of contract is nonsense, unless you want the Wings to be in the bottom of the standings every year. Watching Ras for another 8 years would be like having to watch Jonathan Ericsson or Daniel Cleary or Drew Miller for another 8 years. At this point I couldn't care less if they re-sign this coming offseason. He adds next to nothing on the roster.

We've suffered far too long through Holland's BS to deal with that again.

BTW, none of those "comparables" you mentioned signed anything close to 10 year deals except Staal, who was the 2 OA pick and at one point was one of the best 3Cs in the world and won multiple cups. So the comparison (and the contract) is utter nonsense.

I doubt he would make it passed San Jose on waivers. Who's busting down the door to take his spot btw? Whoever that player is, by your description they would automatically also be fringe right? What are the guys that get scratched? I suppose that just means every team ices a "fringe" line, aka the 4th line, so what's the harm in locking up a fringe liner for 8 years?

He's only 24 and even if he amounts to a 4th liner for the rest of his career, $3.25M is not unmanageable. Don't get me wrong, I'm certainly all for him being a 4th liner because that would mean the team is in a pretty good spot with 9+ forwards who are playing better than Ras regularly. I just don't see who the 9 are with this roster, and into the future. There aren't a ton of replacement/upgrades in UFA market this offseason either. Who should they add/promote?

Yes, and fringe players are not guys you pay over $3M to for 8 years....

Sure you can:
Casey Cizikas: 3.07% x 6yr + 4.59% x 5yr
Adam Lowry: 3.99% x 5yr + 3.67% x 3yr
Brandon Tanev: 4.29% x 6yr + 1.45% x 1yr

I think Tanev is a good comparable for your approach, cuz the Jets walked him to free agency and he got $3.5M x 6 as UFA.

Here's a couple that are closer to his age:
Tanner Jeannot: $2.67M x 2yr
Yegor Sharangovich: $3.1M x 2yr

Since that's all cleared up, what fringe liner do you promote when you lose Ras on waivers?

lol where do you see an 8 year deal....

6yr + 5yr = 11 yr, 5yr +3yr = 8yr, 6yr + 1yr = 7yr... What I'm showing is some of his comparables have been paid for over multiple contracts in the 3.4% ($3M) range amounting to a period of ~8 years. I also think Jeannot and Sharangovich are good comparable case studies for your approach with short term deals.

The player contracts I'm pointing to have similar playing styles with similar production. The only comparables you've provided are Jonathan Ericsson, Dan Cleary and Drew Miller... Do you know one of those is a defenseman, and none of them were given a long term deal early in their career...? In fact they were all given overpriced contracts when they were UFA, which supports the case for a long term deal...

The difference between 2 contracts x 4yr versus 1 contract x 8yr is due to the high probability of the salary cap increasing in the future. Thus 3.7% of the future cap will be more than $3.25M which results in 2 contracts x 4yr consuming a higher percentage of the cap over that same period than 1 contract x 8yr.

Extrapolating a little further, if you assume the player doesn't regress, short term deals favor the player (which might be what your routing for if you want him to get paid ) while long term deals favor the team. However if the player regresses (which seems to be what you're actually routing for ) then it flips and a short term deals favor the team and long term deals favor the player.

Make sense?

I'd like to take your awful comparables and raise you one Justin Abdelkader. He signed a 3.0% x 4yr contract when he was 25, sound familiar? Later (with the cap having gone up from $60M to $73M) he signed a 5.95% x 7yr extension... Can you at the very least concede the fact that signing Abs @ 6.0% ($3.6M) x 8yr would have been objectively better than 3.0% ($1.8M) x 4yr + 5.95% ($4.25M) x 4yr + buyout @ 6.3M x 6yr...? I'm not saying he was ever worth 6%, but still don't think there's an argument against that hypothetical long term contract with hindsight... Damn... Just think of their trajectory if they had signed Abs to an 8yr deal, and Stevie could have bought him out day 1 of becoming GM @ <$2.8M x 2yr...

You still haven't suggested a replacement for Ras when you lose him on waivers... Basically your only argument is your opinion of his play from this season, so everything considered, your short sighted opinion hasn't changed anyone's assessment on the value of Ras. I haven't even brought up Razor, but I think it's safe to assume your opinion of him is more of the same verbal diarrhea...

Just pack it in buddy.

Thank you for proving my point by bringing up one of the worst contracts in this org's history - Justin Abdelkader.

You're arguing that we should sign bad players to long deals to mitigate risk.....LOLOLOLOL

So your logic here is Holland made a better move with a 4yr deal and a 7yr extension that gets bought out with 3 years left rather than an 8yr deal that gets bought out the last year? That's just objectively wrong so you're welcome I guess...

He’s certainly playing like a 6M dollar player

And we’ve seen more then enough players getting paid 7M after their ELC doing perfectly fine afterwards

The era a prove it deals is very much almost dead, and has been dying for a while now

Legitimately one of the dumbest rebuttals I've ever heard.

If Ras gets offered an 8 year deal, I'll send you every penny in my bank account and offer a personal apology on this site.

You're not watching if you think he's playing like a $6M player...

He will get a bridge deal, like almost every other RFA in the league.