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Linie057

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Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 30, 2020 at 1:48 p.m.
Thread: Toronto trade but its not Georgie
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafs_fan13</b></div><div>Leafs don’t need a puck moving guy.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jambo</b></div><div>didn't need one when you acquired barrie...just think u need someone on the right thats competent and there aren't many sellers this year</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>johnston3504</b></div><div>this wouldnt happen, leafs give up a solid prospect and a cost controlled winger who is having a solid season also, a 2nd and a 4th for what an expiring forward who is not as good as kappy but is having a better season due to the increased min this year and is much older, and an ok right handed defense man who is also expiring. from the leafs side it doesn't make much sense to do this.</div></div>

DeAngelo is nice piece to add - Replaces Barrie next year, would be able to run with Muzzin and at about 4/5 million per

Muzz DeAngelo
Reilly. Holl
Sandin Dermott/Lilly

Not a bad blue line
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 26, 2020 at 2:05 p.m.
Thread: Imaging if we hadnt been stupid in the 2017 draft
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NYR_Mike</b></div><div>That draft ever will ever haunt me. I think Chytil will turn out to be a good player though!

Have you ever checked out the Vancouver mic'd up video from the 2017 draft? You hear Van's GM saying he was worried about the Rangers. Speculation of course but maybe the Rangers take Petterson.

Elliot Friedman also went into it on his 31 thoughts. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jFsQc4szx_Q" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jFsQc4szx_Q</a>

4:03 in this video he talks about how if the rangers got in front of VAN they might have taken Petterson. (Sigh)</div></div>

Reports were that the Rangers tried to trade up for both Pettersson and Glass, but nobody took their offers
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 25, 2020 at 5:49 a.m.
Thread: Georgiev To DET
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jbigs11</b></div><div>I had this written out elsewhere so I didn't just type this but these are some comparable goalie trades, similar to Georgiev. Potential future starter, &lt;30 years old. Age then stats at trade time are shown in parentheses. For reference, here are Georgiev’s comparables (23 / 23 GP, .910 SV%, 3.11 GAA). What makes Georgiev different that he's getting a top-six ceiling player?

6/22/18 Brooks Orpik, Philipp Grubauer (26 / 35 GP, .923 SV%, 2.35 GAA) &lt;&gt; 2018 2nd Round Pick
2/21/18 Darcy Kuemper (27 / 19 GP, .932 SV%, 2.33 GAA) &lt;&gt; Tobias Reider, Scott Wedgewood
2/19/18 Petr Mrazek [$2 mil retained] (25 / 22 GP, .910 SV%, 2.89 GAA) &lt;&gt; 2018 3rd Round Pick*, 2019 3rd Round Pick*
6/23/17 Derek Stepan, Antti Raanta (28 / 30 GP, .922 SV%, 2.26 GAA) &lt;&gt; 2017 1st Round Pick, Tony DeAngelo
4/28/17 Scott Darling (28 / 32 GP, .924 SV%, 2.38 GAA) &lt;&gt; 2017 3rd Round Pick
6/20/16 Frederik Andersen (26 / 43 GP, .919 SV%, 2.30 GAA) &lt;&gt; 2016 1st Round Pick, 2017 2nd Round Pick*
6/30/16 Martin Jones (23 / 15 GP, .906 SV%, 2.24 GAA) &lt;&gt; Sean Kuraly, 2016 1st Round Pick
6/27/15 Cam Talbot (27 / 36 GP, .926 SV%, 2.21 GAA) &lt;&gt; 2015 3rd Round Pick, 2015 2nd Round Pick, 2015 7th Round Pick
6/27/15 Eddie Lack (27 / 41 GP, .921 SV%, 2.45 GAA) &lt;&gt; 2015 3rd Round Pick, 2016 7th Round Pick
5/1/14 Jaroslav Halak (28 / 52 GP, .921 SV%, 2.25 GAA) &lt;&gt; 2014 4th Round Pick
3/4/14 Viktor Fasth (31 / 5 GP, .885 SV%, 2.95 GAA) &lt;&gt; 2015 3rd Round Pick, 2014 5th Round Pick
6/30/13 Cory Schneider (26 / 30 GP, .927 SV%, 2.11 SV% &lt;&gt; 2013 1st Round Pick
6/23/13 Jonathan Bernier (24 / 14 GP, .922 SV%, 1.87 GAA) &lt;&gt; Ben Scrivens, Matt Fratin, 2015 2nd Round Pick
4/3/13 Steve Mason (24 / 13 GP, .899 SV%, 2.95 GAA) &lt;&gt; Michael Leighton, 2015 3rd Round Pick
6/22/12 Sergei Bobrovsky (23 / 29 GP, .899 SV%, 3.02 GAA) &lt;&gt; 2013 4th Round Pick, 2012 2nd Round Pick, 2012 4th Round Pick
2/26/12 Ben Bishop (24 / 7 GP, .899 SV%, 2,77 GAA) &lt;&gt; 2013 2nd Round Pick
7/1/12 Semyon Varlamov (22 / 27 GP, .924 SV%, 2.23 GAA) &lt;&gt; 2012 1st Round Pick, 2012 2nd Round Pick</div></div>

Sure I can elaborate:

The 2 major metrics for evaluating goaltenders properly are dFSV% and GSAx. Over the last 3 seasons, among all goaltenders Georgiev ranks in the top 15 in both.

That's a good foundation because it gives us something to measure against with a nice large sample size. Over the last 10 years there have been 3 goalies to put up those numbers (well 4 if we count Martin Jones but he was traded after 2 NHL seasons) and have been traded. They are:

Philip Grubauer: Traded at age 26 with Brooks Orpik (equivalent of a 1st or 2nd rounder depending on your valuation - reference: Marleau cost a 1st and the cap hit difference was less than a mil) for a 2nd.
Cory Schneider: Traded at age 27 for 12th Overall Pick.
Frederick Anderson: Traded at age 26 for a 1st and 2nd Round pick.
Martin Jones: Traded at age 25 for a 1st round pick and Sean Kuraly.

Now Georgiev is younger (23) meaning his rights with the team are held for longer. That would inherently make him more valuable. The lowest any comparable players were dealt for is ~2 2nd rounders (and even that might be a low estimate). Really Georgiev's value is around a 1st heh.

Again, just using the stats here and the comparables, these aren't opinions.

Georgiev from 21-23 is basically putting up close to the same performance that Grubbauer had from 24-26. That's pretty crazy.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 25, 2020 at 12:12 a.m.
Thread: Georgiev To DET
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jbigs11</b></div><div>Bruh if Hirose could be had for that, you think someone wouldn't have done that trade already? He's a 23-year-old who's barely scratched the surface of his potential. Would be a full roster player once the Rangers trade some assets. They have zero LW depth. Gets them a decent pick too.

This is a home run for both sides. It also is very similar to trades in the past that have been made for goalies of Georgiev's caliber.</div></div>

Bruh, alongside the fact that your reasoning is pourous, as a team that is full of passers, adding one more sounds like the exact thing they need..right?

Please, do not sell me on the notion that this is a good idea. His .54 even strength points/60 can be an asset; but, his points are a result of 76% primary assists. So, on a team where Panarin, Buchnevich, Strome, Fast, Howden and all but one of the defensemen (Staal) generate their points on primary assists, you want to add one more passer, and utilize a great asset in Georgiev on such a little deal?

Yeah..no.