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Matteo

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Jun. 8, 2017
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Ottawa Senators
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Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 23, 2021 at 10:44 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 14, 2021 at 2:51 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 26, 2021 at 1:22 p.m.
Thread: Sens badly need another top 4 dman
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>you mean a defenseman that's playing over 19 minutes a night with good results? That kind of defenseman?
Here is what I think. You got your opinion of players simply from capfriendly. Where a hand full of people demonize a guy and then he holds no value. But some scrub over rated player becomes worth the world. Seen this over and over on here. Much like they did to Josh Anderson this summer, while everyone hyped Bennett up till he fell flat on his face again.

You haven't watched him play, and believe me, Crosby, Jake and Rust aren't "dragging the penguins into the playoffs." It does take a team effort. Don't even Malkin me, he played awful till he woke up this season and he's been out injured and they are still winning games. Their defense has been a rock. Guys cap friendly demonized like Ceci are just plugging away playing decently. I'm sure you'd bad mouth him too. Because that's what capfriendly does. But there he is playing well. Ain't no one saying of the penguins, there is the defense falling apart. Or they are weak on defense. You don't here that anywhere on here. Every post you see is not them trying to find a defenseman, it's them looking for forward help. Always trading away their strength on defense to get it.
But hey, keep thinking Reily is better, while you're over there coughing up 45 more goals in 2 games.</div></div>

I disagree with Capfriendly's valuation of players all the time. I also often disagree with Reddit, and especially Twitter. But in this case everyone saying Mike Matheson isn't good and has negative value for that contract is 100% right. Let's look at his stats:

Offensively, his 5 points in 26 games is a 16 goal pace for a full 82-game season, his lowest point total since his rookie season. But points aren't as important for defensemen so let's look at some of his other stats. His CF% of 48.1 means that when he's on the ice at 5v5, the Pens are giving up more scoring chances than they're generating, which is especially bad considering he's on a team in a playoff spot. His relative CF% is -1.5, which means that the Pens are generating more scoring chances and allowing fewer when he's off the ice. In Matheson's defense he does have a high percentage of defensive zone starts (59.7), and he has been doing well to use his body this season in both hits and blocking shots, but these are the qualities you look for in a 3rd pairing dman. His special teams numbers are even worse, with an abysmal relative CF% of -13.6 on the PP and -8.9 on the PK. Overall his stats aren't what you're looking for in a 2nd pairing defenseman playing 19+ minutes per night, and it's definitely not what you're looking for in a player being paid nearly $5 per year until 2026, especially with a flat cap.

Now let's look at Mike Reilly:

Offensively, he's having a career year with 14 points in 34 games, a 34 point pace over 82 games. Already more than double Matheson, but again, points aren't as important for defensemen. Reilly has a CF% of 55.2, higher than I expected, pretty good for a rebuilding team, and his relative CF% is 8.3, which is also higher than I expected and shows that Reilly is a positive contributor for the Sens. Reilly has slightly less defensive zone starts (57.0), but not enough of a difference to make up for a 7.1 CF% difference between the two players. Reilly uses his body to hit and block shots a decent amount but not as much as Matheson, so point Matheson there. Looking at the special teams, Reilly has a relative CF% of -0.3 on the PP, which means he's slightly below average in terms of players who play on the Sens power play. On the PK he shines a little bit more with a relative CF% of 3.2. I'm not saying that Reilly is anything more than a 3rd pairing guy, because he definitely isn't, but he's objectively better than Matheson, and with his $1.5 million contract expiring at the end of this season I'd be willing to bet he gets a small raise, but still less money and term than the stupid contract the Panthers gave Matheson and the Pens actually gave up Hornqvist for somehow.

As for your little "45 more goals in 2 games" comment, yes the Sens are obviously a worse team than the Pens right now, you're just grasping at straws here, yet Reilly is still playing better than Matheson.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 26, 2021 at 10:41 a.m.
Thread: Sens badly need another top 4 dman
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>skinner plays in FL?

Who are you kidding he'd be your 2LD. You can keep trying to hate on the guy all you want. But the defense is one of the reasons that team keeps winning even though they are fielding 2 AHL lines due to injury from their "weak" prospect pool.

He's played good this year, and last year too. 1 bad season does not make a young players career.
But you keep telling yourself he's bad. While he's in the playoffs and your not.
You act like Tierney is any great loss. He's 26 and hasn't had a good season since he left SJS. He's a 3C at best. Who maybe with the right support can turn it around.</div></div>

Matheson would absolutely not be our 2nd pairing lhd, Mike Reilly is better than him and is currently having a way better season as well. That isn't the point is, neither of them are good enough to be 2nd pairing defensemen. If we made a trade it would be for someone who's actually a substantial improvement who can play a good amount of minutes so Reilly can play on the 3rd pair where he belongs and Chabot doesn't have to kill himself every night just so we have a chance at winning.

Also, I'm not saying Tierney is anything more than a 3C, that's exactly what he is. Every season since he's had in Ottawa has been better than San Jose though, both offensively and defensively, with the exception of this season where he's been slow to start. Even so, he's only had one season in SJS better than the one he's having now, so your argument that he hasn't had a good season since he left there is flat out wrong. I'm also not saying he's not expendable, if we traded him I wouldn't really care at all, as long as it's for a good return and not a 3rd pairing dman with a terrible contract. We already have one of those in Zaitsev, I'd rather not get another. I'd actually rather lose Tierney for nothing to Seattle than trade him for Mike Matheson, since Matheson doesn't solve any problems for Ottawa and actually only creates another huge one.

I think the funniest part of this is "he's in the playoffs and you're not," like that's supposed to cut deep. Tierney should carry the Sens to the playoffs like Matheson carries the Pens right? Couldn't be Crosby, Malkin, Letang, Guentzel, and Rust who are dragging your team that's falling apart kicking and screaming into a playoff spot. Seriously, swap Matheson out for almost any 2nd or 3rd pairing defenseman in the NHL and I guarantee the Penguins would be as good, if not better than they are now, and in a better position cap-wise too. Braydon Coburn and Cederic Paquette were two of Ottawa's worst players this season, oh but they won a cup last season so they're worth Jack Eichel who missed the playoffs.