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ReelBigFan

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Jul. 27, 2021
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Philadelphia Flyers
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Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 6, 2023 at 10:55 p.m.
Forum: Fauteuil - DGAug. 9, 2022 at 11:04 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 9, 2022 at 1:41 p.m.
Thread: Firesale if Philly is out of a playoff spot near deadline
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>oliver_wahlstrom</b></div><div>Chychrun is super overrated IMO too.

To me, provorov would be more likely to be a trade at similar timing to that of Fiala. After season, before draft. He will likely go to a team (after this season) who is trying to become contenders. Most likely, a team like Buffalo. They kinda need a RD because Power and Dahlin are both LD (power will probably shift to RD at some point in his career) but until then, they get someone solid for two seasons+. A trade of:
Buffalo acquires: Provorov
Philly asquires: 2 of Buffalos three 2nd rounders (Philly, Sabres, VGK) and Jokijaru

This gets Philly two solid picks and a younger defenseman to help retool around. No team is going to give up one of their top prospects or high picks, but a combo of solid picks and players seems likely.</div></div>
To each their own…
Granted I don’t hate it if the picks if both picks are early 2nds, just think a team like LA or Detroit would do a pick mid first and a guy like McIsaac or Turcotte.. Ducks as well would be in on this imo
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 9, 2022 at 11:27 a.m.
Thread: Firesale if Philly is out of a playoff spot near deadline
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>oliver_wahlstrom</b></div><div>Okay so even if GAR is flawed, it still has showed a steep decline in his production over the past 3-4 seasons.

I just want to know how you got to the conclusion of a first + high prospect</div></div>

The team has declined… which would be a big reason for that

A first and a B+-A- prospect really isn’t a lot at all for him… literally every trade involving him from other teams usually does that plus another piece or two.

Look at Chychrun, literally the only difference between these two is cap and Chych is fragile as glass… but everyone is offering 2 firsts and two top prospects for him here..

Granted these dudes here are being overvaluing both imo… me saying a first and good prospect is less than everyone else. You’re not going to land a Provorov for a 25th overall unless you’re giving up something else that’s more of a lock
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 9, 2022 at 8:10 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 9, 2022 at 7:58 a.m.
Thread: Firesale if Philly is out of a playoff spot near deadline
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>oliver_wahlstrom</b></div><div>bro "Uselss stats" lmao. Yeah okay. All stats are stupid and all that matters is the opinion of a fan regarding a player on their favorite team.

Sc-ew stats, Zdeno Chara is worth 10 first rounders and 4 high prospects because I said so. You have no argument. Romanov was an overpay and he arguably is worth more than Provorov. Substantially younger, better analytics, played on equally poor teams and similar per/60 production.

Also, GAR is a stat used to ISOLATE a player from their linemates. So playing with Braun or whomever means nothing in that regard.

Provorov has only gotten worse throughout his career. His projectiles and performance stats indicate that he will continue that trend. Stop being a blind fan

I also didnt mention corsi lmao. idk why you mentioned it. i dont love the stat which is why i didnt use it</div></div>
Useless stat systems, not just stats.
None of them are perfect my dude. They all try to isolate but always have flaws and are always altered by multiple forces including line mates. Having better options for breakout passes or having guys you can trust more are always going to change these numbers.

Mentioned corsi because it’s the main stat people use when talking advanced stats… you’re the first I’ve seen to use GAR
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 8, 2022 at 4:38 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 8, 2022 at 9:04 a.m.
Thread: Firesale if Philly is out of a playoff spot near deadline
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>oliver_wahlstrom</b></div><div>1.1 GAR, a career low. That has been decreasing each season since 19-20, has not surpassed a .5 ppg season in his career, with his career best happening in 17-18. He has only gotten worse defensively and has 3 more years left at 6.75.

For the record, his 1.1 GAR was good for 503rd in the NHL this season. His point per 60 of .946 was good for 124th in the NHL this season.

So why would a team move a 1st and prospect for an average, maybe above average overpaid defenseman?

Im not saying he wont get more than a 6th, but thats just not his value. If your answer is that some NHL GMs are stupid then sure, ill take that. But its not because he is a high caliber player</div></div>
There’s a million different useless stat systems that all say XYZ… and really don’t mean Jack, no one’s perfected a method which numbers are not inflated by the quality of one’s team and line mates… so him playing with a 3rd pair D like Braun who really can’t be trusted for many aspects of the game definitely is going to hurt his numbers
Even corsi has its flaws when coming to that.

I’m also not one of those chumps on here that go to the default of (insert GM name) is dumb… Romanov got his return as a guy with a 2nd pair ceiling for multiple reasons. A high/mid first like he got really isn’t that much of an overpay… if the pick was 18-22 in the draft I don’t think many people would say it was an overpay…

Provorov to a playoff team getting a first and a good prospect isn’t a large return… he probably could get a high pick like 13 OA and a high prospect if there’s a few teams in on him, but a pick from a playoff team/contender and a top prospect if anything is low for him…